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Analysis of 28 State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Updated: Dec. 14, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

Only 28 states were exit polled.  This analysis shows why the unadjusted exit polls are not plausible. Trump won the True Vote. 
a) He won Independents by  7.7% over Clinton.
b) Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

The state Party-ID crosstab (reported vote) is the basis for the analysis.
Exit Polls: Reported Party-ID weights. Independent vote shares adjusted to force a match to the total exit poll shares.

True Vote Calculation
State Party-ID is based on the Gallup National voter affiliation survey.
Method 1- Reported vote shares (CNN).
Method 2- Vote shares calculated in the Election Model.

Summary (28 states)
Unadjusted exit polls: Clinton leads 47.6-44.6% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Clinton 44.0-Trump 40.6% (not plausible)

Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump 47.3-46.7% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Trump 48.0-Clinton 40.3% (plausible)

True Vote
Model 1: Trump 46.7-46.0% (unweighted, reported vote shares)
Model 2: Trump 48.4-43.8% (unweighted, Election Model shares)
Party-ID: 32.0D – 29.3R – 38.7I (Independents outnumber Dems by 6.7%)

States Flipped from the Reported to the True Vote
True Vote 1:
Trump to Clinton: PA and FL (42 EV)
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH CO (39 EV)
True Vote 2:
Trump to Clinton: PA
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH MN ME CO …. WA OR NM

-The model is probably wrong on WA and OR flipping to Trump.
-Trump leads 51.2-43.8% in the 22 states (and  D.C.) which were not polled.
-Clinton won NY and CA by at least 5 million votes, almost double her 2.7 national margin. Her True Vote margin in NY and CA is approximately 2.5 million.

The calculations are displayed as follows:
Unadjusted ….. Reported…..True Vote

Link to TDMS Research exit poll table

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Posted by on December 13, 2016 in 2016 election


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