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Florida Governor Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2018

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According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Gillum leads DeSantis by 3%. DeSantis has just 52% of whites (implausible), 2% of blacks (implausible) and 56% of Latinos/others. Let’s recalculate using plausible vote shares.

Rasmussen has Gillum ahead by 48-42%. DeSantis has just 29% of Independents and 46% of whites?  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

But first consider the 2016 FL presidential election. According to the FL exit poll, Trump had 64% of whites, 8% of blacks and 35% of Latinos. He had 89% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats and 47% of Independents.

Florida Exit Poll (match to recorded vote)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president

Party ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 32% 90% 8% 0% 1%
Rep 33% 8% 89% 3% 0%
Ind/oth 34% 43% 47% 3% 1%
Match 99% 46.1% 47.9% 2.0% 0.7%
Reported 47.8% 49.0% 2.2% 0.7%
Votes 9,420 4,505 4,618 207 64

 

Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 62% 32% 64% 4%
Black 14% 84% 8% 8%
Latino 18% 62% 35% 3%
Asian 2% 58% 36% 6%
Other 4% 58% 36% 6%
Calc 100.0% 46.2% 49.3% 4.5%

Quinnipiac- 2018 Fl Gov

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2565

FLORIDA Quinnipiac What If
PartyID Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
Dem 31% 3% 93% 6% 93%
Rep 35% 92% 6% 92% 6%
Ind/Other 34% 42% 55% 47% 48%
Total 100% 47.4% 49.6% 50.0% 47.3%
What If
Race Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
White 67% 52% 45% 58% 39%
Black 14% 2% 93% 6% 93%
Lat/oth 19% 56% 43% 56% 43%
Total 100% 45.8% 51.3% 50.3% 47.3%

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/crosstabs_toplines/public_crosstabs_election_2018_florida_governor_september_10_11_2018

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

Rasmussen What if
PartyID Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
Dem 31% 14% 82% 10% 90%
Rep 35% 80% 13% 90% 10%
Ind/Other 34% 29% 54% 47% 53%
Total 100% 42.2% 48.3% 50.6% 49.4%
What if
Race Pct DeSantis Gillum DeSantis Gillum
White 67% 46% 45% 55% 45%
Black 14% 24% 75% 20% 80%
Lat/oth 19% 48% 37% 55% 45%
Total 100% 43.3% 47.7% 50.1% 49.9%

 

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Posted by on September 14, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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