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Implausible: the FL Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 16, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1% NATIONALLY? WHERE DID HER VOTES GO? ONE GUESS.

Trump won four key battleground states (FL, NC, PA, WI).
But unadjusted exit polls indicate that Clinton won all four and had 302 EV.

Statistical analysis indicates that Trump very likely won all four states.
View the two summary tables of 8 Battleground states below.

Florida
Clinton won the FL unadjusted exit poll  by 47.7-46.4%
Trump won the recorded vote by 47.87-46.94%.

The  CNN adjusted exit poll calculation did not exactly match the Reported vote.
Reported: Trump wins: 49.1-47.8% (122,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 49-46%
Party ID: 32D- 33 R- 35I

FL Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 47.7-46.4% (122,000 vote margin – exact opposite of the reported vote)
Clinton won Independents: 46-41%  (implausible)
Party ID: 32D- 33R- 35I

FL True Vote Model 
Trump wins 49.6-43.8% (541,000 margin)
Trump wins Independents: 59-25%
Party ID: 37.0D -31.7R -31.3I (derived from Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Unadjusted Exit Polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

2016-presidential-election-table_nov-10-2016

 

Unadj EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 32% 90% 8% 0% 1% 1%
Rep 33% 8% 89% 1% 1% 1%
Ind 35% 46% 41% 5% 2% 6%
Match 100% 47.5% 46.3% 2.1% 1.4% 3%
Unadj 100% 47.7% 46.4% 2.0% 1.3% 3%
Votes (000) 9,362 4,466 4,344 187 122 243
Margin -122 -1.3%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 32% 90% 8% 0% 1% 1%
Rep 33% 8% 89% 1% 1% 1%
Ind 35% 46% 49% 2% 2% 1%
Calc 100% 47.5% 49.1% 2.2% 0.7% 3%
Reported 100% 47.8% 49.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Votes (000) 9,362 4,475 4,597 206 66 19
Margin 122 1.9%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other
Dem 37.0% 90% 8% 0% 1% 1%
Rep 31.7% 8% 89% 1% 1% 1%
Ind 31.3% 25% 59% 11% 2% 3%
Match True  100% 43.7% 49.6% 3.8% 1.3% 2%
TVM bef UVA 95% 42.4% 44.8% 4.2% 2.3% 0.2% 
True Vote 100.0% 43.8% 49.6% 4.2% 2.3% 0.2%
Votes (000) 9,362 4,099 4,640 393 211 19
Margin 541 5.8%

 

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Posted by on November 16, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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