RSS

Tag Archives: Florida 2014 Governor election

Florida 2014 Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative Precinct Vote Shares

Florida 2014 Governor Election Fraud: Cumulative Precinct Vote Shares

Richard Charnin
Feb.11, 2015
Updated: Aug.8, 2015
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/my-book/

Scott(R) defeated Crist(D) by 64,145 votes out of 5.95 million cast (48.1-47.1%). Third-party candidates had 4.8%.

2014 was a replay of the 2010 election in which Scott defeated Sink(D) by 62,000 votes (49.6- 48.4%). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3,150 respondents): 50.8-45.4-3.8%. The margin of error was 2%.

Previous posts applied cumulative vote share analysis using graphics to confirm 2014 election fraud in Wisconsin and South Dakota. This post will do the same for the Florida governor election.

Cumulative Vote shares
Precinct votes for 12 of 67 Florida counties were downloaded. The 12 counties comprised 58.25% of the total state vote. The analysis indicates that approximately 150,000 Crist votes flipped to Scott in the 12 counties: Brevard Broward Dade Duval Hillsborough Lee Marion Orange Palm Beach Pinellas Polk Volusia

The 12 counties comprised 58.25% of the total state vote. The analysis indicates that approximately 150,000 Crist votes flipped to Scott in the 12 counties.

Crist had 47.07% of 5.95 million total votes. He had 54.39% of 3.47 million votes in the 12 counties and 36.84% of 2.48 million votes in the other 55 counties.

The data was sorted in ascending order from the smallest to the largest precincts. In each of the 12 counties, the trend never reversed: Crist‘s vote share declined in every case.

There was a 4.13% decline in Crist’s vote share from the 25% mark to the final (100%). His shares declined from 25-50%, 50-75% to 75-100% of the vote. The probability of ALL changes in shares of moving in one direction (to Scott) is the same as flipping a coin 36 times and getting all heads! P= 0.5^36 = 1.46E-11 or 1 in 68.7 billion!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=1299990885

A Sensitivity Analysis of displays a range of actual Crist vote shares in 12 counties over the 25,50,75% and final 100% recorded vote. These are combined with his assumed vote shares ranging from 37-47% for the other 55 counties. Crist won 42 of the 44 scenarios.

Assuming Crist had a 44% share in the 55 small counties
-At the 25% mark Crist is a 52.6-42.8% winner given his 58.5% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 50% mark Crist is a 51.5-43.6% winner given his 56.9% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 75% mark Crist is a 50.9-44.3% winner given his 55.8% share in the 12 big counties.
-At the 100% mark Crist is a 50.1-45.2% winner given his 54.4% share in the 12 big counties.

Since the CVS analysis is based on recorded votes, not the true vote, they appear to discount Crist’s true shares in the 12 biggest counties at the 25,50,75 and final 100% mark.

IMPLAUSIBLE EXIT POLL
The FL exit poll indicated that 35% of voters were Republicans and just 31% Democratic. This ratio is highly suspect. Note that the Party-ID percentages only sum to 99%. This is significant in an election in which Scott won by 1%.

There are 500,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans

Total.........Democrats...Republicans..Other
11,931,533...4,628,178 4,172,232 3,131,123
..............38.79%....34.97%....26.24%

The adjusted exit poll gives the GOP a 35-31% Party-ID edge.
Party-ID was adjusted to match the recorded vote.
Crist had 91% of Democrats while Scott had just 88% of Republicans.
Note: The Party-ID total is 99%; Other (third party) shares total 98%)

................Pct.Crist.Scott.Other
Democrat........31.0% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........33.0% 46.0% 44.0 8.0%
Total...........99.0% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.877 2.783 2.800 0.253

Change the Party-ID percentage to the actual registration mix.
Crist is the winner by 368,000 votes.
................Pct..Crist.Scott.Other
Democrat........38.8% 91.0% 6.00% 3.0%
Republican......35.0% 10.0% 88.0% 2.0%
Other...........26.2% 46.0% 44.0% 8.0%
Total...........100.% 50.9% 44.7% 4.0%
Votes...........5.936 3.019 2.651 0.235

Sensitivity Analysis

.........Crist share of 55 counties
....Share .. 47%...46%...45%...44%
...........Total Crist Share
25% 58.52%.. 53.71 53.29 52.88 52.46
50% 56.94%.. 52.79 52.37 51.95 51.54
75% 55.83%.. 52.15 51.73 51.31 50.89
100% 54.39%. 51.31 50.89 50.47 50.05
................ Crist Margin
25% 21.83%.. 12.21% 11.38% 10.54% 9.71%
50% 18.67%.. 10.37% 9.53% 8.70% 7.86%
75% 16.45%.. 9.08% 8.25% 7.41% 6.58%
100% 13.57%. 7.40% 6.57% 5.73% 4.90%

........ Crist cumulative precinct vote shares
County..........Votes... 25% 50% 75% 100% %Chg Vote Chg

Brevard.........207,638 45.6 44.2 44.5 43.8 -1.8 -3,737
Broward.........457,344 71.8 71.0 71.0 69.7 -2.1 -9,604
Dade............509,738 60.9 60.7 60.4 59.8 -1.1 -5,607
Duval...........257,773 56.0 46.5 45.1 43.3 -12.7 -32,737
Hillsborough....350,022 57.4 55.7 54.1 51.5 -5.9 -20,651

Lee.............201,416 45.2 43.1 41.6 39.4 -5.8 -11,682
Marion..........112,571 45.9 44.2 41.9 41.2 -4.7 -5,291
Orange..........292,584 64.6 60.1 58.6 56.2 -8.4 -24,577
Palm Beach......407,070 61.7 62.4 61.9 60.6 -1.1 -4,478
Pinellas........328,201 61.2 58.9 56.7 56.0 -5.2 -17,066

Polk............177,609 48.6 47.4 46.4 44.7 -3.9 -6,927
Volusia.........165,064 51.2 51.8 49.4 48.1 -3.1 -5,117

Total.........3,467,030 58.7 56.8 55.8 54.4 -4.3 -147,475


This result confirms results from Governor True Vote analysis for the 2010 and 2014 elections.

The Law of Large Numbers
Why does a baseball players batting average fluctuate less and less as the number of at bats increase? How come in coin flipping the percentage of heads approaches 50.0% as the number of flips increase? One would expect Crist’s cumulative vote share to INCREASE SLIGHTLY as PRECINCT SIZE INCREASES since the larger urban districts are usually more Democratic than the smaller rural districts. But Crist’s share decreased in all 12 counties – a counter-intuitive result.

Actual precinct voting data shows that the changes in vote shares moving in the direction of Scott are impossible statistically and demographically – indicating fraud. Cumulative vote share analysis (CVS) is a tool for uncovering the most fraudulent counties – such as Duval. The overall county results confirmed the True Vote Model (TVM) and the 2010 unadjusted exit poll.

Dade, Palm Beach and Broward are large, highly Democratic counties. The percentage vote switches from Crist to Scott from the 25,000 vote mark to the final 100% were -1.1%, -3.1%, -2.1%, respectively. Therefore the lines are nearly flat.

2014 was an exact match to 2010
In previous posts, we concluded that Scott stole the 2010 and 2014 elections. In 2010, Scott won the recorded vote by 49.6-48.4% (62,000 votes) or 50.59% of the 2-party vote. Sink, the Democrat, won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-45.4% (283,000 votes).

In 2014, Scott won the recorded vote by 48.2-47.1%. His 2-party vote share (50.58%) was within 0.01% of his 2010 (50.59%) share! Crist won the True Vote by 52.0-48.0%. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=841488888

Florida 2014 Exit Poll
The poll was forced to match forced to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the unavailable actual exit poll results. Exit pollsters ALWAYS assume ZERO election fraud. It is standard operating procedure and has no scientific basis. They are complicit in perpetuating the fraud. The exit pollsters had to force a match to the bogus FL recorded vote in every demographic crosstab. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SnErWihwCvq5puGw3sBF9E4jr585XV2NChqvxGObLAU/edit#gid=678958238

For example, the Party_ID crosstab had to be adjusted to an implausible Dem 31-Rep 35-Ind 33%. A plausible (conservative) 34-33-33% split results in Crist winning by 49.4-45.6%. Note that 91% of Democrats voted for Crist and 88% of Republicans voted for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

View the cumulative precinct votes, shares and corresponding graph for the following counties.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=0

Lee

Palm Beach

Brevard

Orange

Pinellas

Polk

Volusia

Marion

Hillsborough

Dade

Duval

Broward

Advertisements
 

Tags: , , , , , ,

Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. He claims that the polls were biased to the Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Their rationale is that the polls must always be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Florida 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.14, 2014
Updated: Sept.28, 2015

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

For the first time since 2000, I did not plan on forecasting the 2014 election or run a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud has been proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed; the media and congress refuse to investigate. They continue to promote the myth that the recorded vote is the True Vote and Election Fraud does not exist.

But I decided to analyze a few close, disputed elections.

In the 2014 FL Governor election, Scott(R) defeated Crist(D) by 64,145 votes out of 5.95 million cast (48.1-47.1%). Third-party candidates had 4.8%.

In 2010, Scott defeated Sink(D) by 62,000 votes (49.6- 48.4%). Sink won the unadjusted exit poll (3,150 respondents): 50.8-45.4-3.8%. The margin of error was 2%.

The fact that the 2014 2-party share exactly matched 2010 is a red flag by itself. Crist won the 2-party True Vote by 52.0-48.0%.

Cumulative Vote Share analysis in the largest counties indicated the usual pattern of increasing GOP vote shares in larger (generally Democratic) precincts:

The key to understanding that elections are rigged is to take a close look at the exit polls. All exit poll crosstabs must be adjusted in order to force the poll to match the recorded vote. In the “How did you Vote in the Last Election” question, there are two sets of adjustments: a) how returning voters from the prior election voted and b) how returning and new voters in the current election voted. Generally, the most flagrant adjustment is made to the percentages of how they voted in the prior election.

Since unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, we only have the adjusted published polls. The pattern never changes: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure. The pollsters claim the matching is to correct polling error. Pollsters and media pundits want the public to believe the myth: recorded vote count is pristine and there is zero fraud. But there is no longer any doubt. Election fraud is pervasive and systemic.

The 2014FLGov spreadsheet contains the following worksheets:
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2010 Florida Exit Poll (‘2010 FL EP’)
– 2014 Florida Exit Poll (‘2014 FL EP’)
– 2014 FL County Vote vs. 2010 (“Counties’)
– 2014 True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)
– 2014 Florida Cumulative Vote Shares

Cumulative Vote Share analysis shows that Scott gained vote share going from small to large precincts in virtually all counties. This is counter-intuitive. The largest precincts are generally in Urban areas which are heavily Democratic.

................ Crist cumulative precinct vote shares
County..........Votes...25.% 50.% 75.% 100% % Chg VoteChg

Brevard.........207,638 45.6 44.2 44.5 43.8 -1.8 -3,737
Broward.........457,344 71.8 71.0 71.0 69.7 -2.1 -9,604
Dade............509,738 60.9 60.7 60.4 59.8 -1.1 -5,607
Duval...........257,773 56.0 46.5 45.1 43.3 -12.7 -32,737
Hillsborough....350,022 57.4 55.7 54.1 51.5 -5.9 -20,651

Lee.............201,416 45.2 43.1 41.6 39.4 -5.8 -11,682
Marion..........112,571 45.9 44.2 41.9 41.2 -4.7 -5,291
Orange..........292,584 64.6 60.1 58.6 56.2 -8.4 -24,577
Palm Beach......407,070 61.7 62.4 61.9 60.6 -1.1 -4,478
Pinellas........328,201 61.2 58.9 56.7 56.0 -5.2 -17,066

Polk............177,609 48.6 47.4 46.4 44.7 -3.9 -6,927
Volusia.........165,064 51.2 51.8 49.4 48.1 -3.1 -5,117

Total.........3,467,030 58.7 56.8 55.8 54.4 -4.3 -147,475


County CVS graphs
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17naKWzaLDkRaYfgiTAJfkJ5pFDoI_rv4HXfXcLyD4Ls/edit#gid=318098598

2014 NEP (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of crosstabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.6% of the recorded vote because it was forced to match the vote. The exit poll margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of a 0.6% deviation is close to zero. The deviation illustrates that the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure – and unscientific. It’s no different then a serial thief daring the police to stop him. But they never do even though they have the statistical evidence of fraud and a signed confession.

Florida 2010 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Scott won by 49.6-48.4%, a 62,000 vote margin. But Sink (D) won the unadjusted exit poll by 283,000 votes (50.8-45.4%, a 6.6% margin discrepancy). There were 3,150 exit poll respondents and a 2.3% poll margin of error. Sink had a 99% win probability. But the poll was forced to match the recorded vote.

Just as in presidential election exit polls, the returning 2008 voter percentages were implausible. In the ’Voted in 2010′ crosstab, 47% of 2010 voters were returning Obama voters and 47% were returning McCain voters. But Obama won the Florida 2008 unadjusted exit poll by 6% So how does one explain the equal 47% mix of returning voters? This is the standard ‘tell’: the mix is adjusted to maximize the Republican vote and minimize the Democratic vote. The mix and the vote shares were changed to reflect the 2008 unadjusted exit poll.
Sink is the winner of the True vote by 50.8-45.4%

2010 Unadjusted Exit Poll
................Sink Scott Other
Respondents.....1600 1431 119
Poll Share......50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Poll Vote.......2683 2400 200
Margin..........283

2010 True Vote
2008...........Vote Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........989 49.7% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........848 42.6% 7% 87% 2%
Other...........220 6.0% 53% 44% 3%
DNV..............34 1.7% 53.0% 44.0% 3%
True Vote.......1991
Respondents....1991 100% 50.8% 45.4% 3.8%
Votes...................5282 2683 2399 200
Margin 195

2010 Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
2008............Mix Sink Scott Other
Obama...........47% 88% 10% 2%
McCain..........47% 11% 87% 2%
Other............3% 31% 67% 2%
DNV..............3% 31% 67% 2%
Total..........100% 48.4% 49.6% 2.0%
Votes.................. 2556 2620 106
Margin -64

Florida 2014 Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
The How Voted in 2010 crosstab was not listed, but we have the True Vote model. The returning voter mix was changed to reflect the 2010 unadjusted exit poll. Crist is the winner of the True vote by 52-48%.

Party ID
Scott had 50.58% of the 2-party vote, within .01% of his 2010 share. Just a coincidence? The question How Did You Vote in 2010? was not asked, so let’s look at the Florida exit poll Party-ID demographic. There were 11.9 million registered voters. Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 500,000 (38.8% Dem; 35.0% Rep; 26.2% Other). But in matching the recorded vote, the Party-ID split was 31D-35R-33I. Assuming that the True split was equal to the actual voter registration mix, Crist is the winner by 50.9-44.6%. Crist had stronger support among Democrats (91%) than Scott had among Republicans (88%). He won Independents by 46-44%. So how did he lose?

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (matched recorded vote)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat........31% 91% 6% 3%
Republican......35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent.....33% 46% 44% 8%
Total...........99% 46.9% 47.2% 4.3%
Votes..........5.88 2.78 2.80 0.25

Florida Gov 2014 Exit Poll (Registration Mix)
Party-ID.......Mix Crist Scott Wyllie
Democrat.......39% 91% 6% 3%
Republican.....35% 10% 88% 2%
Independent....26% 46% 44% 10%
Total..........100% 50.9% 44.6% 4.5%
Votes......... 5.94 3.03 2.65 0.265

Counties
There were nearly 500,000 more voters in 2014 than 2010. Presumably, this increase in turnout would be expected to help Crist. As mentioned, Sink won the True Vote in 2010. But Scott’s 2014 margin increased by 5,000 votes. This is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats.

The True Vote Model
The model data was updated for 2014 using 2010 returning and new voters. The assumptions for the base case scenario:
1) Sink had a 52.2% True Vote share in 2010
2) In 2014, there was a 93% turnout of living 2010 voters
3) Crist had 92.5% of returning Sink voters
4) Crist had 6.9% of returning Scott voters
5) Crist had 54% of new voters

In the Base Case scenario, Crist had a 52.0% share and won by 224,000 votes. The Sensitivity analysis shows Crist’s total vote share and margins over a range of 18 scenarios. He won 17.

1988-2008 Presidential Elections
A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

Tags: , , , , , ,

 
Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis