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MY COMMENTS TO THE MSM ON THE RIGGING OF THE 2016 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

The MSM just interviewed the authors of  Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign on the reasons for Clinton’s loss.  I commented to Chris Mathews and Brian Williams of MSNBC as well as FOX and CBS on how MSM pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for Clinton.

FYI: Your guests may not have looked at my 2016 Election model. It was based adjustments to final pre-election polls which were biased for Clinton. The Democratic Party-ID share was overstated at the expense of Independents who went solidly for Trump. In addition, there is strong evidence that votes were stolen from Jill Stein – by Clinton.

The 2016 Model projected Trump’s 306 RECORDED EV. But he actually had approximately 351 TRUE EV after adjusting for late undecided voters. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Note: I exactly forecast the RECORDED EV in the last three elections: 365, 332, 306. In each case the winner did better in the True Vote than the Recorded vote.

Here is the proof: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

 

 

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Posted by on April 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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THE 2016 ELECTION MODEL (8 PRE-ELECTION POLLS)

THE 2016 ELECTION MODEL (8 PRE-ELECTION POLLS)

Richard Charnin
Oct. 26,2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

This is the ONLY model which compares pre-election vote shares and corresponding Electoral votes to the adjusted Gallup affiliation survey (40 Ind-32 Dem-28 Rep).It will be updated as often as possible.

View the model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Clinton currently leads in 7 of the 8 published polls (Yellow cells). One (Gravis) is tied.
Using Gallup-adjusted weights (Blue cells), Trump leads in 4, Clinton leads in 4

The model uses the poll vote shares which match the published polls.
But Jill Stein must be doing much better than 1-3%.
THEREFORE HILLARY CLINTON MUST BE DOING WORSE THAN THE POLLS INDICATE.

Electoral votes for the Gallup adjusted weights:
…………Clinton Trump
Ipsos/Reuters 232 306
IBD 202 336
Rasmussen 80 458
Quinnipiac 354 184
Fox News 335 203
CNN 335 203
ABC/WashPost 459 79
Gravis 147 391

 
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Posted by on October 26, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The media wants voters to believe that Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls – while maintaining that the Russians are working with Wikileaks and  are preparing to hack the voting machines for Trump. But the media won’t discuss the history of election fraud going back decades on proprietary voting machines and central tabulators. And that 2016 Election fraud is proven by exit poll discrepancies  favoring Clinton in 24 of 26 states.

The latest Fox poll shows Clinton leading  45-39% over Trump. Johnson and Jill Stein have 5% and 3%, respectively.The Party-ID weights are 43% Dem, 38% Rep and 19% Ind.  Candidate vote shares were calculated to match the poll results.

In order to match the Fox poll, Clinton had approximately 35% of Independents and Trump 30%. Approximately 17% of Independents support Johnson and Stein while 18% (can we consider them Independents?) show no preference..

But the latest Gallup party affiliation survey indicates that 40% are Independents,   32% Democrats and 28% Republicans. Using the survey percentages, and assuming that 50% of Independents support Johnson and Stein, then Trump is leading Clinton by 36-35%, with 16% for Stein and 13% for Johnson.

Applying the Gallup weights adjusted proportionally to each of  15 battleground states, Trump leads by 36.9-34.5% and wins 13  states with a 142-51 lead in electoral votes.

In anticipation of the final presidential debate, it is instructive to recall the Democratic primaries. Eleven of 26 exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error – a 1 in 77 billion probability. 

Wikileaks documents provide confirmation that the primaries were rigged against Sanders while Donald Trump easily won the Republican primaries.

Other than Fox News, the Clinton email scandal is ignored in the mainstream media. They would rather focus on  Trump’s locker room comments years ago- which are no different than the language used every day on cable and in films.  The media would rather dwell on this non-issue than discuss the monumental Clinton/DNC scandals unfolding every day.

 

View the  spreadsheet calculations and source data links.

The Fox Poll

Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein na
Ind 19% 35% 30% 10% 7% 18%
Dem 43% 85% 5% 2% 2% 6%
Rep 38% 5% 82% 6% 2% 5%
 Calc 100% 45.1% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.9%
 Poll 100% 45.0% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0%

 True Vote: Gallup party affiliation survey 

Gallup  Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 20% 30% 20% 30%
Dem 32% 80% 5% 5% 10%
Rep 28% 5% 80% 12% 3%
 Calc 100% 35.0% 36.0% 13.0% 16.0%
 Poll 92% 45.0% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0%
 Diff 8% -10.0% -3.0% 8.0% 13.0%

15 Battleground states

Gallup Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 38.7% 20% 30% 20% 30%
Dem 31.6% 80% 5% 5% 10%
Rep 29.7% 5% 80% 12% 3%
 Calc 100% 34.5% 37.0% 12.9% 15.7%
 Poll 95.0% 45.4% 42.9% 5.4% 1.3%
 Diff 5.0% -10.9% -6.0% 7.5% 14.4%
 Gallup   Party-ID
EV Dem Rep Ind
AZ 11 22.8% 27.3% 49.8%
CO 9 24.4% 26.2% 49.5%
FL 29 30.6% 27.8% 41.5%
GA 16 30.8% 34.2% 35.0%
IA 6 24.5% 25.4% 50.0%
ME 4 25.2% 21.5% 53.3%
MI 16 34.7% 29.4% 35.9%
MN 10 34.7% 31.0% 34.3%
MO 10 30.8% 35.0% 34.2%
NC 15 32.9% 24.2% 42.9%
NV 6 31.3% 27.5% 41.2%
OH 18 32.4% 33.4% 34.2%
PA 20 39.1% 29.2% 31.8%
VA 13 31.6% 33.4% 35.0%
WI 10 33.9% 32.6% 33.5%
 Total Evote  193
Average 30.6% 29.2% 40.1%
Wtd Avg 31.6% 29.7% 38.7%
 Polls       Trump Clinton
 10/19 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein EVote EVote
AZ 42 44 9 1 11
CO 45 37 10 3 9
FL 48 44 4 1 29
GA 42 48 4 0 16
IA 39 43 6 2 6
ME 44 36 9 3 4
MI 47 37 7 4 16
MN 43 43 4 2 tie tie
MO 42 47 4 1 10
NC 48 47 4 0 15
NV 47 40 7 0 6
OH 45 45 6 1 tie tie
PA 47 41 6 1 20
VA 46 43 6 0 13
WI 47 39 1 3 10
 Total EV          43 122 
Average 44.8 42.3 5.8 1.5
Wtd Avg 45.4 42.9 5.4 1.3
 Gallup Party_ID       Trump Clinton
 True Vote Clinton Trump Johnson Stein EVote EVote
AZ 29.6% 38.0% 14.4% 18.1% 11
CO 30.7% 37.0% 14.3% 18.1% 9
FL 34.2% 36.2% 13.2% 16.3% 29
GA 33.4% 39.4% 12.6% 14.6% 16
IA 30.9% 36.6% 14.3% 18.2% 6
ME 31.9% 34.5% 14.5% 19.1% 4
MI 36.4% 36.0% 12.4% 15.1% 16
MN 36.2% 36.8% 12.3% 14.7% 10
MO 33.2% 39.8% 12.6% 14.4% 10
NC 36.1% 33.9% 13.1% 16.9% 15
NV 34.7% 35.9% 13.1% 16.3% 6
OH 34.4% 38.6% 12.5% 14.5% 18
PA 39.1% 34.9% 11.8% 14.3% 20
VA 34.0% 38.8% 12.6% 14.7% 13
WI 35.5% 37.8% 12.3% 14.4% 10
Total EV  142  51
Average 34.0% 36.9% 13.1% 16.0%
Wtd Avg 34.5% 36.9% 12.9% 15.7%
 
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Posted by on October 19, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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