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Trump approval rating: MSM still oversampling Democrats

Richard Charnin
Updated: Jan.20, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Just like in the pre-election and exit polls, the mainstream media’s approval rating inflated the Democratic share of the electorate.

The latest Washington Post poll indicates a 40% Trump approval rating based on an
8-point Democratic advantage in Party ID: 31D, 23R, 46I. But the Gallup party affiliation survey has a 3-point Republican advantage: 25D, 28R,44I.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll as of Jan.20 has a Trump 56% approval rating! http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

The National Exit Poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote.
The 2016 poll indicated Party-ID was 36D, 33R, 31I.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
The Nov.6 Gallup survey had Party-ID at 31D, 27R, 36I.

From Zero Hedge:
In the month leading up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through ‘Oversamples'” and “ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary’s “Lead” Shrinks To 2-Points”). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.

But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump’s favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious “oversamples” we’ve seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

https://libertywritersnews.com/2017/01/urgent-media-caught-lying-trumps-pre-inauguration-approval-ratings-real-numbers/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/pre-election-and-national-exit-poll-categories-vs-the-true-vote/

Party-ID

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average 
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 39% 88.4% 6.00% 3.0%
Rep 32% 5.00% 87.8% 4.0%
Ind. 29% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 47.4% 46.0% 6.2%
Votes 136.2 64.6 62.7 8.5
Margin -2.0

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match the recorded vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89.0% 8.00% 3.0%
Rep 33% 8.00% 88.0% 4.0%
Ind. 31% 42.0% 46.0% 12.0%
… 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes 136.2 65.0 62.9 8.3
Margin -2.1

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average (Gallup Party-ID)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.4% 6.00% 3.00%
Rep 28% 5.00% 87.8% 4.00%
Ind. 40% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 45.1% 47.5% 7.3%
Votes 136.2 61.4 64.7 9.9
Margin 3.2

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match the estimated True Vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.0% 9.00% 3.0%
Rep 28% 7.00% 89.0% 4.0%
Ind. 40% 38.0% 51.0% 11.0%
… 100% 45.3% 48.2% 6.5%
Votes 136.2 61.7 65.7 8.8
Margin 3.9

Trump Trump %Independent
%Rep 49.0% 51.0% 53.0%
91%. 47.96% 48.76% 49.56%
89%. 47.40% 48.20% 49.0%
87%. 46.84% 47.64% 48.44%

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Summary of pre-election and exit poll anomalies

Richard Charnin
Jan. 10. 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Nine final pre-election polls
– Clinton won by 45.8-43.6%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 39D-32R-29I ???
– Trump won Independents by 43.6-33.8% ***

Gallup voter affiliation survey: Independents a solid majority
Party-ID: 32D-28R-40I
– Trump won by 46.8-45.9%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV

28 unadjusted state exit polls
-Clinton won by 49.6-43.5%
-Clinton won by 297-241 EV
-Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
-HRC won Independents by 44.0-41.3% ???

Final 28 state and national exit polls(forced to match recorded vote)
– Clinton won by 48.2-46.2%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
– Trump won Independents by just 46-42% ???
– Trump won late deciders from Oct.1 by 50-40% ***

23 states not exit polled
– Trump won by 50.4-43.7%

View the calculations:
href=”https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

 
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Posted by on January 10, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Analysis of 28 State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Updated: Dec. 14, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Only 28 states were exit polled.  This analysis shows why the unadjusted exit polls are not plausible. Trump won the True Vote. 
a) He won Independents by  7.7% over Clinton.
b) Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Methodology
The state Party-ID crosstab (reported vote) is the basis for the analysis.
Exit Polls: Reported Party-ID weights. Independent vote shares adjusted to force a match to the total exit poll shares.

True Vote Calculation
State Party-ID is based on the Gallup National voter affiliation survey.
Method 1- Reported vote shares (CNN).
Method 2- Vote shares calculated in the Election Model.

Summary (28 states)
Unadjusted exit polls: Clinton leads 47.6-44.6% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Clinton 44.0-Trump 40.6% (not plausible)

Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump 47.3-46.7% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Trump 48.0-Clinton 40.3% (plausible)

True Vote
Model 1: Trump 46.7-46.0% (unweighted, reported vote shares)
Model 2: Trump 48.4-43.8% (unweighted, Election Model shares)
Party-ID: 32.0D – 29.3R – 38.7I (Independents outnumber Dems by 6.7%)

States Flipped from the Reported to the True Vote
True Vote 1:
Trump to Clinton: PA and FL (42 EV)
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH CO (39 EV)
True Vote 2:
Trump to Clinton: PA
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH MN ME CO …. WA OR NM

Notes:
-The model is probably wrong on WA and OR flipping to Trump.
-Trump leads 51.2-43.8% in the 22 states (and  D.C.) which were not polled.
-Clinton won NY and CA by at least 5 million votes, almost double her 2.7 national margin. Her True Vote margin in NY and CA is approximately 2.5 million.

The calculations are displayed as follows:
Unadjusted ….. Reported…..True Vote
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

Link to TDMS Research exit poll table
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

 
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Posted by on December 13, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

Richard Charnin
Oct. 23, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly  is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares  to  those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey  weights (currently  40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey  weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind.  Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only  poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model  (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

 Poll share   Electoral Vote  
Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 42.1 39.6 298 240
Rasmussen 40.9 42.9 211 327
IBD/TIPP 39.5 42.2 202 336
Quinnipiac 47.6 39.7 444 94
Fox News 45 39 354 184
Average 43.02 40.68 301.8 236.2
 Gallup affiliation:   Poll share   Electoral Vote
40Ind;32Dem;28Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 36.4 37.7 232 306
Rasmussen 36.8 47.4 81 457
IBD/TIPP 36.5 45.4 42 496
Quinnipiac 45.4 40.5 354 184
Fox News 41.3 37.9 335 203
Average 39.28 41.78 208.8 329.2

 

Party ID Mix Ind Dem Rep
Ipsos 13 46 41
Rasmussen 32 40 28
IBD/TIPP 38 35 27
Quinnipiac 26 40 34
Fox News 19 43 38
Average 25.6 40.8 33.6
 Independent shares    
Poll Clinton Trump
Ipsos 23 34
Rasmussen 22 47
IBD/TIPP 28 44
Quinnipiac 38 42
Fox News 30 35
Average 28.2 40.4

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on October 23, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Oct. 21, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

This analysis illustrates how polling results (and electoral votes) are manipulated due to the over-weighting of Democrats and under-weighting of Independents. The misleading poll results are compared to the more accurate Gallup party voter affiliation weighting.

The Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump 47-40%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 26%, Dem 40%, Rep 34%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Clinton wins by 444-94 Electoral Votes.

Assuming the Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Clinton wins by 45.4-40.5% with 354-184 EV.

The Rasmussen poll has Trump leading Clinton 43-41%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 32%, Dem 40%, Rep 28%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Trump wins by 327-211 Electoral Votes

Assuming the  Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Trump wins in a landslide by 45.4-36.5% with 496-42 EV.

 

Quinnipiac Match poll
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 26% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 40% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 34% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 47.64% 39.72% 6.28% 6.36%
Votes 129,106 61,506 51,281 8,108 8,211
Elect Vote 538 444 94 0 0
Quinnipiac Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 32% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 28% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 45.44% 40.48% 6.64% 7.44%
Votes 129,106 58,666 52,262 8,573 9,605
Elect Vote 538 354 184 0 0
 
Rasmussen Match poll 41 43 5 3
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 32% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 40% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 40.92% 42.88% 8.80% 7.40%
Votes 129,106 52,830 55,360 11,361 9,554
Elect Vote 538 211 327 0 0
Rasmussen Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 32% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 36.52% 45.44% 10.08% 7.96%
Votes 129,106 47,149 58,666 13,014 10,277
Elect Vote 538 42 496 0 0

 

 

Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1079567794

Four-way 2016 Election Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

 
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Posted by on October 21, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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