# Tag Archives: Gallup voter affiliation

## What is the probability the Democrats will win the House?

Richard Charnin
Nov.4, 2018

Nate Silver calculates an 85% probability the Dems will win the House – if they win the popular vote by at least 5.7%.

As usual, Nate Silver makes the simplistic assumption that the polls accurately reflect voter intent. And as always, he avoids mentioning the fraud factor.

Nate bases his calculation on the latest polls from Real Clear Politics which shows the Dems winning 202 seats and the Repubs 196 with 37 too close to call.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
Assuming the Repubs have 196 seats, then the probability P that they will win AT LEAST 22 of 37 races that are too close to call and win 218 seats is 1 in 6.
P= 16.2% = 1-BINOMDIST(21,37,0.5,true).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

But…Given the latest Gallup voter affiliation survey and assuming equal vote shares below, the Dems would need at least 56% registered voter turnout compared to just 46% for the Repubs to win by 52.9-47.1%. Anything less than a 10% Dem turnout edge means the Repubs would win the House.

So the question Nate must answer is this: is it logical to assume that the Democratic turnout rate would be 10% greater than the Repubs? I don’t think so. If anything, the Repubs are more motivated.

 Generic Vote Gallup Party-ID Turnout Votes Rep Dem Rep 27% 46% 19573 92% 8% Dem 28% 56% 24711 8% 92% Ind 45% 44% 31204 50% 50% Total 100% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86% Votes 75,488 35,586 39,902 Turnout scenarios Rep Dem Ind Total Rep Dem 46% 56% 44% 47.9% 47.14% 52.86% 47% 55% 45% 48.3% 47.65% 52.35% 48% 54% 46% 48.8% 48.14% 51.86% 49% 53% 47% 49.2% 48.63% 51.37% 50% 52% 48% 49.7% 49.10% 50.90% 51% 51% 49% 50.1% 49.57% 50.43% 52% 50% 50% 50.5% 50.03% 49.97%

Posted by on November 4, 2018 in 2018 Elections

## Trump approval rating: MSM still oversampling Democrats

Richard Charnin
Updated: April 2, 2018

Latest updated Trump approval index http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

Just like in the pre-election and exit polls, the mainstream media’s approval rating inflated the Democratic share of the electorate.

Jan. 20, 2017:  The Washington Post poll indicates 40% Trump approval based on an
8-point Democratic advantage in Party ID: 31D, 23R, 46I. But the Gallup party affiliation survey has a 3-point Republican advantage: 25D, 28R,44I.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll as of Jan.20 has 56% Trump approval. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

The National Exit Poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote.
The 2016 poll indicated Party-ID was 36D, 33R, 31I.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
The Nov.6 Gallup survey had Party-ID at 31D, 27R, 36I.

From Zero Hedge:
In the month leading up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through ‘Oversamples'” and “ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary’s “Lead” Shrinks To 2-Points”). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.

But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump’s favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious “oversamples” we’ve seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

https://libertywritersnews.com/2017/01/urgent-media-caught-lying-trumps-pre-inauguration-approval-ratings-real-numbers/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/pre-election-and-national-exit-poll-categories-vs-the-true-vote/

Party-ID

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 39% 88.4% 6.00% 3.0%
Rep 32% 5.00% 87.8% 4.0%
Ind. 29% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 47.4% 46.0% 6.2%
Margin -2.0

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match the recorded vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89.0% 8.00% 3.0%
Rep 33% 8.00% 88.0% 4.0%
Ind. 31% 42.0% 46.0% 12.0%
… 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Margin -2.1

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average (Gallup Party-ID)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.4% 6.00% 3.00%
Rep 28% 5.00% 87.8% 4.00%
Ind. 40% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 45.1% 47.5% 7.3%
Margin 3.2

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match the estimated True Vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.0% 9.00% 3.0%
Rep 28% 7.00% 89.0% 4.0%
Ind. 40% 38.0% 51.0% 11.0%
… 100% 45.3% 48.2% 6.5%
Margin 3.9

Trump Trump %Independent
%Rep 49.0% 51.0% 53.0%
91%. 47.96% 48.76% 49.56%
89%. 47.40% 48.20% 49.0%
87%. 46.84% 47.64% 48.44%

Posted by on January 19, 2017 in 2016 election

## Summary of pre-election and exit poll anomalies

Richard Charnin
Jan. 10. 2017

Nine final pre-election polls
– Clinton won by 45.8-43.6%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 39D-32R-29I ???
– Trump won Independents by 43.6-33.8% ***

Gallup voter affiliation survey: Independents a solid majority
Party-ID: 32D-28R-40I
– Trump won by 46.8-45.9%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV

-Clinton won by 49.6-43.5%
-Clinton won by 297-241 EV
-Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
-HRC won Independents by 44.0-41.3% ???

Final 28 state and national exit polls(forced to match recorded vote)
– Clinton won by 48.2-46.2%
– Trump won by 306-232 EV
– Democrats over-weighted: 36D-33R-31I ???
– Trump won Independents by just 46-42% ???
– Trump won late deciders from Oct.1 by 50-40% ***

23 states not exit polled
– Trump won by 50.4-43.7%

View the calculations:

1 Comment

Posted by on January 10, 2017 in 2016 election

## Analysis of 28 State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Updated: Dec. 14, 2016

Only 28 states were exit polled.  This analysis shows why the unadjusted exit polls are not plausible. Trump won the True Vote.
a) He won Independents by  7.7% over Clinton.
b) Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Methodology
The state Party-ID crosstab (reported vote) is the basis for the analysis.
Exit Polls: Reported Party-ID weights. Independent vote shares adjusted to force a match to the total exit poll shares.

True Vote Calculation
State Party-ID is based on the Gallup National voter affiliation survey.
Method 1- Reported vote shares (CNN).
Method 2- Vote shares calculated in the Election Model.

Summary (28 states)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Clinton 44.0-Trump 40.6% (not plausible)

Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump 47.3-46.7% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Trump 48.0-Clinton 40.3% (plausible)

True Vote
Model 1: Trump 46.7-46.0% (unweighted, reported vote shares)
Model 2: Trump 48.4-43.8% (unweighted, Election Model shares)
Party-ID: 32.0D – 29.3R – 38.7I (Independents outnumber Dems by 6.7%)

States Flipped from the Reported to the True Vote
True Vote 1:
Trump to Clinton: PA and FL (42 EV)
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH CO (39 EV)
True Vote 2:
Trump to Clinton: PA
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH MN ME CO …. WA OR NM

Notes:
-The model is probably wrong on WA and OR flipping to Trump.
-Trump leads 51.2-43.8% in the 22 states (and  D.C.) which were not polled.
-Clinton won NY and CA by at least 5 million votes, almost double her 2.7 national margin. Her True Vote margin in NY and CA is approximately 2.5 million.

The calculations are displayed as follows:

Link to TDMS Research exit poll table
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Posted by on December 13, 2016 in 2016 election

## Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

Richard Charnin
Oct. 23, 2016

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly  is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares  to  those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey  weights (currently  40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey  weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind.  Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only  poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model  (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

 Poll share Electoral Vote Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Ipsos 42.1 39.6 298 240 Rasmussen 40.9 42.9 211 327 IBD/TIPP 39.5 42.2 202 336 Quinnipiac 47.6 39.7 444 94 Fox News 45 39 354 184 Average 43.02 40.68 301.8 236.2 Gallup affiliation: Poll share Electoral Vote 40Ind;32Dem;28Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Ipsos 36.4 37.7 232 306 Rasmussen 36.8 47.4 81 457 IBD/TIPP 36.5 45.4 42 496 Quinnipiac 45.4 40.5 354 184 Fox News 41.3 37.9 335 203 Average 39.28 41.78 208.8 329.2

 Party ID Mix Ind Dem Rep Ipsos 13 46 41 Rasmussen 32 40 28 IBD/TIPP 38 35 27 Quinnipiac 26 40 34 Fox News 19 43 38 Average 25.6 40.8 33.6 Independent shares Poll Clinton Trump Ipsos 23 34 Rasmussen 22 47 IBD/TIPP 28 44 Quinnipiac 38 42 Fox News 30 35 Average 28.2 40.4

Posted by on October 23, 2016 in 2016 election

## A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Oct. 21, 2016

This analysis illustrates how polling results (and electoral votes) are manipulated due to the over-weighting of Democrats and under-weighting of Independents. The misleading poll results are compared to the more accurate Gallup party voter affiliation weighting.

The Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump 47-40%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 26%, Dem 40%, Rep 34%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Clinton wins by 444-94 Electoral Votes.

Assuming the Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Clinton wins by 45.4-40.5% with 354-184 EV.

The Rasmussen poll has Trump leading Clinton 43-41%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 32%, Dem 40%, Rep 28%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Trump wins by 327-211 Electoral Votes

Assuming the  Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Trump wins in a landslide by 45.4-36.5% with 496-42 EV.

 Quinnipiac Match poll Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Ind 26% 38% 42% 8% 12% Dem 40% 91% 4% 2% 3% Rep 34% 4% 80% 10% 6% Total 100% 47.64% 39.72% 6.28% 6.36% Votes 129,106 61,506 51,281 8,108 8,211 Elect Vote 538 444 94 0 0 Quinnipiac Match Gallup Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Ind 40% 38% 42% 8% 12% Dem 32% 91% 4% 2% 3% Rep 28% 4% 80% 10% 6% Total 100% 45.44% 40.48% 6.64% 7.44% Votes 129,106 58,666 52,262 8,573 9,605 Elect Vote 538 354 184 0 0
 Rasmussen Match poll 41 43 5 3 Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Ind 32% 22% 47% 18% 13% Dem 40% 77% 15% 3% 6% Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3% Total 100% 40.92% 42.88% 8.80% 7.40% Votes 129,106 52,830 55,360 11,361 9,554 Elect Vote 538 211 327 0 0
 Rasmussen Match Gallup Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Ind 40% 22% 47% 18% 13% Dem 32% 77% 15% 3% 6% Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3% Total 100% 36.52% 45.44% 10.08% 7.96% Votes 129,106 47,149 58,666 13,014 10,277 Elect Vote 538 42 496 0 0

Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html