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JFK Dealey Plaza Witnesses: A Survey Comparison

JFK Dealey Plaza Witnesses: A Survey Comparison

Richard Charnin
Feb. 26, 2014
Updated: Feb. 28, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

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An analysis of four surveys of witnesses at Dealey Plaza yielded surprising results. Of witnesses who said shots were fired from either the Grassy Knoll (GK) or the Texas School Book Depository (TSBD), three surveys (Feldman, Galanor, Adjusted) indicated that 61%, 52% and 67% said shots came from the GK. But Warren Commission apologist John McAdams’ indicated just 35%.

This is an analysis of John McAdams Strange List: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jfk-dealey-plaza-witnesses-john-mcadams-strange-list/

The following witness data has been added to the JFKCalc spreadsheet:

Dealy Plaza witnesses: Surveys of Source of Shots: Misinformation from the HSCA and John McAdams. In this article, Galanor discusses the McAdams and HSCA surveys: http://jfklancer.com/pdf/galanor.pdf

Harold Feldman (1965): 121 eyewitnesses: 51 said Grassy Knoll, 32 TSBD, 38 had no opinion. http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/12th_Issue/51_wits.html

Stewart Galanor (1988) 216 eyewitnesses: 52 GK, 48 TB, 5 GK and TB;TB, 4 elsewhere, 37 no opinion. http://www.history-matters.com/analysis/witness/Index.htm

John McAdams: 241 eyewitnesses: 61 TSBD, 35 GK, 2 GK and TB, 2 elsewhere, 69 no opinion.  http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/earwitnesses.htm

Charnin (adjusted): 223 eyewitnesses: 84 GK, 39 TSBD; 6 GK and TB; 4 elsewhere, 38 no opinion. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

HSCA (1977): 178 witnesses based on FBI reports and the Warren Commission: 49 said shots were from the TSBD and only 21 from the Knoll. The HSCA failed to reveal who the witnesses were!

Stewart Galanor wrote: How the Warren Commission and the House Select Committee on Assassinations manipulated evidence to dismiss witness accounts of the assassination. http://www.history-matters.com/analysis/witness/artScience.htm

“Over six hundred people witnessed the assassination of President Kennedy. The FBI acting on behalf of the Warren Commission interviewed at least two hundred of them. Regrettably, the Commission seemed unconcerned that the FBI reports on seventy of these interviews did not reveal if the witness had an opinion on the source of the shots. Nor did the Commission conduct an analysis of witness accounts or give any credence to those accounts of witnesses who thought the shots came from the grassy knoll.

In 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations analyzed the accounts of the witnesses taken by the Warren Commission and from FBI reports published in the 26 Volumes of Hearings and Exhibits that accompanied the Warren Report. In analyzing witness accounts, a diligent investigator would consider various issues that the House Committee failed to address. According to the HSCA, 692 witnesses “were present in the Plaza during the assassination.” Most of them were never called to testify by either the Warren Commission or the HSCA. (8HSCA139)

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Posted by on February 24, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK Assassination: Mathematical Proof of a Grassy Knoll Shooter

JFK Assassination: Mathematical Proof of a Grassy Knoll Shooter

Richard Charnin
Feb 5, 2014
Updated: June 8, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

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The corporate media never discusses the HSCA conclusion of a probable conspiracy based on overwhelming eyewitness testimony and scientific acoustic evidence of shooters at the Grassy Knoll. Warren Commission apologists are relentless in their shameless promotion of the ridiculous, discredited Lone Nut Gunman and Single Bullet Theory.

The General Problem
Given:
1) n witnesses claim they heard, saw or smelled shots from the Grassy Knoll
2) P is a probability estimate that a given witness would be correct
3) Witness observations are independent events
Then:
4) The probability PM that a given witness is MISTAKEN: PM = 1 – P
5) The probability PA that ALL n witnesses are MISTAKEN: PA = PM^n

This is an update to the original post which is referenced in JFKFacts.org: http://jfkfacts.org/assassination/is-there-mathematical-proof-of-a-grassy-knoll-shooter/#more-12235

Dealey Plaza witness survey data is in the JFKCalc spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

This article discusses the importance of independent, corroborating witness evidence in a court of law. http://www.spmlaw.ca/jfk/shot_pattern_evidence.pdf

My adjusted survey, which includes witnesses cited by Feldman and Galanor, indicates that at least 93 heard or saw shots fired from the Grassy Knoll; 45 said the TSBD.

Researcher Harold Feldman wrote that of 121 eyewitnesses: 51 (42%) said shots came from the Grassy Knoll area, 32 from the TSBD, and 38 had no opinion. http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/12th_Issue/51_wits.html

Given P = 0.42 is probability of a witness being correct in stating that shots came from the Knoll, then the probability PM = 0.58 = 1-.42 that the witness was mistaken.The joint probability PA that ALL 51 witnesses were mistaken and there was NOT a Grassy Knoll shooter is 0.58 to the 51st power.
PA = 0.58^51 = 8.6E-13 = 0.000000000000861 or of 1 in 1,161,909,568,739 or 1 in 1.16 trillion.

Therefore, the probability PS that there was a Grassy Knoll shooter is PS = 1-PA = 0.999999999999139

If we exclude the 38 witnesses who had no opinion as to the origin of the shots, then 51 of 83 (62%) said shots came from the Grassy Knoll and there is a 38% probability that a given witness would be mistaken. The probability that ALL 51 witnesses would be mistaken is much lower: PA = 0.38^51 = 3.71E-22
PA= 1 in 2,697,966,622,402,536,000,000 or 1 in 2.7 billion trillion!

Of course, if just ONE witness was correct in observing a shot from the Grassy Knoll, then all 51 were correct. Therefore, the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Lee Harvey Oswald was a Lone Gunman shooting from the Texas Book Depository was bogus.

Summary of Surveys

Survey..........Feldman McAdams Galanor Adjusted

Total Asked…………121 241 216 223
Total Opinions……….83 100 110 133
Grassy Knoll…………51. 35. 52. 84
Book Depository…….32. 61. 48. 36
Both TB and GK………0.. 2.. 5.. 9
Other locations………..0.. 2.. 4.. 4
No opinion……………38. 69. 37. 36
Not asked……………..0. 72. 70. 54

GK % of Opinions……61. 35. 47. 63
TB % of Opinions……39. 61. 44. 27
Probability ALL GK witnesses mistaken:
Probability……….E-22 E-07 E-17 E-43

John McAdams http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/earwitnesses.htm
Of 241 total witnesses, 102 had an opinion on the origin of the shots. Sixty-three (63) said they came from the TSBD and 37 from the Grassy Knoll.  The probability that ALL  37 witnesses were mistaken in claiming that shots came from the Grassy Knoll is 3.76E-08 or 1 in 26 million!

Stewart Galanor
http://jfklancer.com/pdf/galanor.pdf
How the Warren Commission and the House Select Committee on Assassinations
minipulated evidence to dismiss witness accounts of the assassination.
http://www.history-matters.com/analysis/witness/artScience.htm

Of the 216 interviewed, 52 heard at least one shot from the knoll, 48 from the TSBD, 5 from both locations, 4 elsewhere. The probability PA that 52 witnesses who said shots were fired from the Grassy Knoll would ALL be MISTAKEN is E-17 (1 in 100,000 trillion).

Adjusted Totals
A total of 224 witnesses were asked where the shots came from. Of the 133 who had an opinion, 84 said the Grassy Knoll; 36 said the TSBD; 9 both locations; 4 said elsewhere, 37 had no opinion.

The probability analysis was posted in jfkfacts.org and elicited the following comments: http://jfkfacts.org/assassination/response-to-charnin-the-grassy-knoll-probability-problem/#comment-342727

Acoustic Evidence
In 1978 at the HSCA, an analysis of gunshots recorded on a DPD dictabelt was presented by engineers from Bolt, Beraneck and Newman. The study indicated that there was a 96% probability that at least 6 sharp impulses occurred at 12:30 – the exact time of the shots. At least three were from in front of the limo at the Grassy Knoll. The evidence forced the HSCA to conclude that the assassination was “probably” a conspiracy. It was a “limited hangout”. There has been no follow-up investigation.
http://themysteriesofdealeyplaza.blogspot.com/2011/01/let-there-be-sound-acoustics-evidence.html

Sounds of Silence
http://brane-space.blogspot.com/2013/10/larry-sabatos-new-book-does-not.html.
“The conclusion of four separate shots coincides with 4 impacts visible in the Z-film. The acoustic impulses were retested in a 2001 investigation (‘Echo Correlation Analysis and the Acoustic Evidence in the Kennedy Assassination Revisited’) by D.B. Thomas, published in the Journal Science and Justice, Vol. 41, p. 21. The impulses are shown below, with the four highest amplitude peaks associated with rifle muzzle blasts.

The hypergeometric p-function was used for differing weighting factor distribution sets, H{M..N, n, i} to assess significance or likelihood of occurrence. It’s based on the no. of echo ‘windows’ M, with each spanning 190msec (total time) at 2msec width per window and n for assigned impulses in the evidence pattern, with ‘i’ the “coincident impulses” or those matching the original (11/22/63)evidence and the test result. The question was whether a succession of first impulses of given amplitude could be manifesting a signal or was merely random noise.

Thomas found that for a given configuration for 2 motorcycles at designated locations, 1 for (GK) shooter location and one for alignment of muzzle blasts with one pair of echoes, the p -value is 0.000012 or about 1 in 100,000 against the null hypothesis, i.e. that the impulses were from random noise. An alternative way to put this is that the odds are 100,000 to 1 in favor of the impulses comprising actual rifle shots.”

David Lifton: #5 man
In 1965, assassination researcher and author David Lifton (“Best Evidence”) analyzed the famous Mary Moorman photo. He discovered a figure holding an object behind the fence on the Grassy Knoll. The image was the fifth, final and clearest image of the subject identified in the photo. Later, the figure was identified as a man by 10 independent photographic experts. Each signed statements to that effect and none were told that the photo was taken in Dealey Plaza. http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/Kelin33/no_5.html

http://www.academia.edu/5036142/PHYSICS_AND_JFK_ASSASSINATION_FINAL_EVIDENCE_OF_A_SECOND_SNIPER_BEHIND_THE_STOCKADE_FENCE_New_important_updates_



 
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Posted by on February 5, 2014 in JFK

 

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JFK Witness Deaths: Why Wikipedia, HSCA, Bugliosi and Posner got it Wrong

JFK Witness Deaths: Why Wikipedia, HSCA, Bugliosi and Posner got it Wrong

Richard Charnin
Jan. 26, 2014
Updated: Oct.20, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

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Wikipedia is incomplete and erroneous on the topic of JFK Witness Deaths. This post will expose its errors of omission and commission. Note that I contacted Wikipedia about a year ago to have a summary of my JFK witness death probability analysis included in the Witness Deaths section. The moderator refused, claiming my analysis was not a published document. Well, they no longer can use that excuse. My work has been cited in “Hit List” by Richard Belzer and David Wayne and by Jim Marrs in his updated version of the classic “Crossfire”. Along with Jim Garrison’s “On the Trail of the Assassins”, “Crossfire” was the basis for Oliver Stone’s “JFK”.

Before discussing the witness deaths, consider this example of glaring misinformation in the Wikipedia section: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_Select_Committee_on_Assassinations#Criticisms_and_further_research:
“A majority of witnesses who testified on the source of the shots said they came from the direction of the Depository. However, many witnesses thought the shots came from the direction of the Knoll. Only five witnesses, from a total of over one hundred, thought the shots came from two directions simultaneously”.

On the contrary, the majority of witnesses said the shots came from the Grassy Knoll! If Wikipedia can get this wrong, why believe any of its sections on the JFK Assassination? It appears that Wikipedia’s editor has a bias, to put it mildly.

Researcher Harold Feldman wrote: http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/12th_Issue/51_wits.html.
What follows is the result of a survey of the 121 witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy whose statements are registered in the twenty-six volumes appended to the Warren Report. On the question of where the shots that killed the President came from, 38 could give no clear opinion and 32 thought they came from the Texas School Book Depository Building (TSBDB). Fifty-one (51) held the shots sounded as if the came from west of the Depository, the area of the grassy knoll on Elm Street, the area directly on the right of the President’s car when the bullets struck.

Note: John McAdams’ survey is the one quoted by Wikipedia. It is the only one of four in which a majority (61%) of Dealey Plaza eyewitnesses claimed that the Texas School Book Depository was the source of the shots. The other surveys have just 39%, 44% and 29%, respectively. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/02/26/jfk-dealey-plaza-witnesses-john-mcadams-strange-list/.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet has a detailed table of the four surveys. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=65

Wikipedia: Witness Deaths http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_assassination_conspiracy_theories#Witness_deaths
Allegations of mysterious or suspicious deaths of witnesses connected with the Kennedy assassination originated with Penn Jones, Jr. and were brought to national attention by the 1973 film Executive Action. Jim Marrs later presented a list of 103 people he believed died “convenient deaths” under suspect circumstances. He noted that the deaths were grouped around investigations conducted by the Warren Commission, New Orleans D.A. Jim Garrison, the Senate Intelligence Committee, and the House Select Committee on Assassinations. Marrs pointed out that “these deaths certainly would have been convenient for anyone not wishing the truth of the JFK assassination to become public.”

Vincent Bugliosi has described the death of journalist Dorothy Kilgallen—who claimed she was granted a private interview with Jack Ruby—as “perhaps the most prominent mysterious death” cited by assassination researchers. According to author Jerome Kroth, Mafia figures Sam Giancana, John Roselli, Carlos Prio, Jimmy Hoffa, Charles Nicoletti, Leo Moceri, Richard Cain,Salvatore Granello, and Dave Yaras were likely murdered to prevent them from revealing their knowledge. According to author Matthew Smith, others with some tie to the case who have died suspicious deaths include Lee Bowers, Gary Underhill, William Sullivan, David Ferrie, Clay Shaw, George de Mohrenschildt, four showgirls who worked for Jack Ruby, and Ruby himself.

The House Select Committee on Assassinations investigated another alleged “mysterious death”—that of Rose Cheramie. The Committee reported that Louisiana State Police Lieutenant Francis Fruge traveled to Eunice, Louisiana on November 20, 1963 – two days before the assassination — to pick up Rose Cherami, who had sustained minor injuries after she was hit by a car. Fruge drove Cherami to the hospital and said that on the way there, she “…related to [him] that she was coming from Florida to Dallas with two men who were Italians or resembled Italians.” Fruge asked her what she planned to do in Dallas, to which she replied: “…number one, pick up some money, pick up [my] baby, and … kill Kennedy”. Cherami was admitted and treated at State Hospital in Jackson, Louisiana for alcohol and heroin addiction. State Hospital physician, Dr. Victor Weiss later told a House Select Committee investigator that on November 25—three days after the assassination—one of his fellow physicians told him “…that the patient, Rose Cherami, stated before the assassination that President Kennedy was going to be killed.” Dr. Weiss further reported that Cherami told him after the assassination that she had worked for Jack Ruby and that her knowledge of the assassination originated from “word in the underworld.”After the assassination, Lt. Fruge contacted Dallas Police Captain Will Fritz regarding what he had learned from Cherami, but Captain Fritz told him he “wasn’t interested”. Cherami was found dead by a highway near Big Sandy, Texas on September 4, 1965; she had been run over by a car.

Another “suspicious death” cited by Jim Marrs was that of Joseph Milteer, director of the Dixie Klan of Georgia. Milteer was secretly tape-recorded thirteen days before the assassination telling Miami police informant William Somersett that the murder of Kennedy was “in the working.” Milteer died in 1974 when a heater exploded in his house. The House Select Committee on Assassinations reported in 1979 that Milteer’s information on the threat to the President “was furnished [to] the agents making the advance arrangements before the visit of the President” to Miami, but that “the Milteer threat was ignored by Secret Service personnel in planning the trip to Dallas.” Robert Bouck, Special Agent-in-Charge of the Secret Service’s Protective Research Section, “…testified to the committee that threat information was transmitted from one region of the country to another if there was specific evidence it was relevant to the receiving region.”

The House Select Committee on Assassinations investigated the allegation “that a statistically improbable number of individuals with some direct or peripheral association with the Kennedy assassination died as a result of that assassination, thereby raising the specter of conspiracy”. The committee’s chief of research testified: “Our final conclusion on the issue is that the available evidence does not establish anything about the nature of these deaths which would indicate that the deaths were in some manner, either direct or peripheral, caused by the assassination of President Kennedy or by any aspect of the subsequent investigation.”

Author Gerald Posner points out that Marrs’ list was taken from the group of about 10,000 people connected even in the most tenuous way to the assassination, one of the multiple official investigations, or the independent research of conspiracy theorists. He notes that it would be surprising if a hundred people out of ten thousand did not die in “unnatural ways” and points out over half of the people on Marrs’ list did not in fact die mysteriously, but of natural causes, such as Secret Service agent Roy Kellerman, who died of heart failure at age 69 in 1984, long after the Kennedy assassination, but is on Marrs’ list as someone whose cause of death is “unknown”. Posner also points out that many prominent witnesses and conspiracy researchers continue to live long lives and have not made it onto the mysterious death list.

My comments:
Posner is wrong. Approximately 70% of the convenient deaths were unnatural (homicide, accident, suicide, unknown).

Seven top FBI officials died within a 6 month period just before their scheduled testimony at HSCA. Neither Posner, Bugliosi or the HSCA statistician mention that fact. Why not?

Where is Posner’s proof that Marrs’ 103 witnesses were based on a universe of 10,000? Even if there were 10,000, the probability of 50 homicides from 1964-78 is 1.3E-15 (1 in 750 billion). The probability of 100 homicides (more likely) is 5.4E-54 (less than 1 in a million trillion trillion trillion trillion).

Posner never calculated the probabilities. But he could have tried to contact the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times who determined 100,000 trillion to one odds against 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the assassination. Unfortunately, Posner would have been out of luck; no one at the Times recalled the actuary’ name in response to the HSCA in 1977. If you believe that, there is a bridge in Brooklyn…

Neither the HSCA statistician, Posner or Bugliosi considered that the issue is not how many witnesses died.The relevant question is: how many died unnaturally among the finite group of witnesses who were called or sought to testify in four investigations? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=55.

Approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations from 1964-78. Sixty-seven (67) are included among the 126 in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database. Of the 67, at least 39 were unnatural deaths of which 28 were homicides. The probability of 39 unnatural deaths is E-27 or 1 in 200 trillion trillion.

Approximately 1400+ material witnesses related to the JFK Assassination are referenced in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination” by Michael Benson. In JFK Calc, there are 120 JFK-related suspicious deaths. The best estimate is that 99 were unnatural (83 homicides, 8 accidents, 4 suicides and 4 unknown). Officially, 78 were unnatural. But the HSCA noted just 21 deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

The probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths is ZERO based on average (unweighted) U.S. mortality rates. For the JFK-witness group, the probability is ZERO of at least 12 deaths (due to the lower average mortality rate). But there were at least 97 unnatural deaths. The probability is E-40 based on national unnatural mortality rates. The correct probability based on JFK-weighted rates is E-112.

Of the 552 witnesses who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously from 1964-78 (20 unnaturally). The probability is E-18. Of the 20 unnatural deaths, 17 were homicides. Only 7 unnatural deaths would normally be expected in the 15 year period.

The average homicide rate for 1964-78 was 0.000084. The probability that in 1964-78 there would be 81 homicides among 1400 material witnesses is E-102.

Even if there were 25,000 FBI interviews, how many were material witnesses? Probably no more than 1500. The probability of 81 homicides among 25,000 from 1964-78 is 1 in 6 trillion. Only 31 homicides would normally be expected over a 15 year period.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is my latest numerical and graphical analysis post: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

This is a comprehensive collection of research essays on the assassination from Michael T. Griffith: http://www.mtgriffith.com/web_documents/research.htm

Recent Interviews:
Jack Duffy: http://www.srbroadcasting.com/songs/jdshow10312013.mp3
Jim Fetzer: http://nwopodcast.com/fetz/media/jim%20fetzer%20real%20deal-charnin%20barrett.mp3

 
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Posted by on November 12, 2013 in JFK

 

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