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2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Sept.24, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% (137.5 million) of 157.6 million registered voters cast ballots, the same turnout as in the 1996-2016 elections. There were 136.2 million votes recorded – a 1% difference. In 1996-2016, there was a 3% difference between votes cast and recorded.

According to the Gallup Voter Preference Survey, on Election Day, 39.8% were Independents, 31.9% Democrats and 28.3% Republicans.

Assume registered voter turnout of
– 87% Independents
Trump won Independents by 8%. Pre-election polls indicate he won by 10%.

– 85% Democrats
(6% stayed home – or 12% of Sanders voters).
Clinton had 88% of Dems – but that assumes Jill Stein had just 2%.
Jill probably had more.

– 91% Republicans
Trump had 89%. Johnson took away votes.

Result: Trump wins by 47.6-45.2% (3.4 million votes)
Stein has 2.9% (4 million) compared to her 1.07% recorded vote (1.45 million).
So the following is CONSERVATIVE. Trump probably did better.

Party Turnout Voted….Clinton….Trump… Johnson… Stein….Other
Ind… 87%…….34.4%…….40%…….48%…….4.0%….5.0%…3.0%
Dem… 85%……27.1%…….88%……..8%…….1.0%….2.0%…1.0%
Rep… 91%…….25.7%……..7%…….89%…….3.0%….1.0%…0.0%

Vote..87.3%…….. 100%……45.2%…..47.6%……2.8%….2.9%…1.5%
Votes………………137.5……62.15…..65.51……3.81…..3.97…2.05
Recorded
Share………….. 136.22…..48.25%….46.17%…..3.29%…1.07%..1.23%
Votes…………….. 136.22…..65.72…..62.89……4.48……1.45…1.67

Sensitivity Analysis
(Trump wins all 25 turnout scenarios- see spreadsheet tables)
Trump Vote Margin
Best case: 4.9 million (48.2-44.7%)
Base case: 3.35 million (47.6-45.2%)
Worst case: 1.8 million (47.1-45.8%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=610568510

 

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Posted by on September 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

Richard Charnin
Sept. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

So I’m a “left-wing Internet crank” who has been “weaponized” for Trump by Roger Stone?

On August 3, 2016, Felix Salmon wrote: “Stone and Trump base most of their argument, such that it is, on one man. Stone refers to him as “a mathematician called Richard Charnin.”
http://splinternews.com/how-the-donald-trump-campaign-is-we…

Hey Felix, my political views are irrelevant. But I do have a lifetime membership in the Truth Party. I crunch numbers.

Salmon goes on:
“For years now, Charnin has been best known as the go-to guy for anybody who wants evidence that voter fraud is deciding elections. He’s beloved in the corner of the internet which believes that Hillary Clinton stole the Democratic nomination from Bernie Sanders, or, for that matter, that George W Bush stole the 2004 election from John Kerry. When he’s not concentrating on who-killed-JFK conspiracy theories, he can generally be relied upon to say that the more left-wing candidate got more votes than the winner in major elections.

That makes Charnin a very strange bedfellow for the Trump campaign, just in terms of his political leanings. But even stranger is the idea that Trump would want his supporters to pick up Charnin’s voter fraud ball and run it all the way into the zone of democratic illegitimacy”.

I plead guilty as charged. But I am not a conspiracy theorist. I use math analysis based on published facts to prove that…
1) JFK was assassinated in a massive Coup by the Deep State:
http://www.amazon.com/Reclaiming-Science-Cons…/…/ref=sr_1_1…

2) Hillary stole the 2016 nomination:
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/…/77-billion-to-one-2…/) and

3) Kerry beat Bush easily in 2004:  http://www.amazon.com/Matrix-Deceit-Forcing-Pre-Election-Fraudulent/dp/1480077038/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1351564528&sr=8-1&keywords=matrix+of+deceit

My next book is on the 2016 election. As usual, expect the mathematical analysis you won’t ever get in the MSM.

 
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Posted by on September 22, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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2016 True Vote Model- California

Richard Charnin
Aug. 22, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

2016 True Vote Model- California

Clinton won the recorded vote: 61.7-31.6% (4.27 million votes). But election fraud was rampant.

Consider that in 2012, Obama beat Romney by 60.2-37.1% (3.0 million votes) in California. Do you believe that Clinton beat Obama’s margin by 1.2 million? If you do, there’s a bridge in Brooklyn you may be interested in.

1) To match the recorded vote, Clinton needed to win new voters by 90-2%.
2) Nearly 450,000 angry Sanders voters did not turn out for Hillary.

Clinton won the True Vote by 55.0-37.8% (2.44 million votes).
The 1.8 million True Vote discrepancy from the recorded vote comprised nearly 2/3 of her bogus 2.8 million vote national margin.

Media shills insist that Clinton won by 3 million votes. It has become their Mantra, along with the debunked Russian “collusion”. Show them the numbers and tell them: THE RECORDED VOTE IS NEVER EQUAL TO THE TRUE VOTE. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A FRAUD-FREE ELECTION.

California True Vote Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=633901715

There are eleven counties in California with more registered voters than voting age adults in the county. The counties include San Francisco, Los Angeles and San Diego. Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog organization, has sent a letter to California Secretary of State Alex Padilla on behalf of the Election Integrity Project, noting that there are 11 counties in the state with more registered voters, and alleging that the state may be out of compliance with Section 8 of the National Voter Registration Act (NVRA).
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/08/10-11-california-counties-registered-voters-voting-age-adults-democrat/

Related CA posts:
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/smoking-gun-approximately-15-of-bernies-votes-were-flipped-to-clinton-in-california/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/more-clues-on-election-fraud-from-humboldt-cty-ca/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/19/implausible-california-exit-poll-and-reported-vote/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/25/california-four-election-scenarios-which-one-do-you-believe/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/02/05/california-primary-vote-timeline-indicates-it-was-stolen-in-early-voting-before-5pm-on-june-7/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/07/10/confirmation-bernie-won-california-by-at-least-100000-votes/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/07/06/california-primary-bernie-leads-in-vote-counts-since-election-day/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/07/02/bernie-landslide-in-ca-humboldt-cty-open-source-system/
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/smoking-gun-approximately-15-of-bernies-votes-were-flipped-to-clinton-in-california/

 
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Posted by on August 22, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Pre-election Presidential polls: preparing for a stolen election

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The media wants voters to believe that Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls – while maintaining that the Russians are working with Wikileaks and  are preparing to hack the voting machines for Trump. But the media won’t discuss the history of election fraud going back decades on proprietary voting machines and central tabulators. And that 2016 Election fraud is proven by exit poll discrepancies  favoring Clinton in 24 of 26 states.

The latest Fox poll shows Clinton leading  45-39% over Trump. Johnson and Jill Stein have 5% and 3%, respectively.The Party-ID weights are 43% Dem, 38% Rep and 19% Ind.  Candidate vote shares were calculated to match the poll results.

In order to match the Fox poll, Clinton had approximately 35% of Independents and Trump 30%. Approximately 17% of Independents support Johnson and Stein while 18% (can we consider them Independents?) show no preference..

But the latest Gallup party affiliation survey indicates that 40% are Independents,   32% Democrats and 28% Republicans. Using the survey percentages, and assuming that 50% of Independents support Johnson and Stein, then Trump is leading Clinton by 36-35%, with 16% for Stein and 13% for Johnson.

Applying the Gallup weights adjusted proportionally to each of  15 battleground states, Trump leads by 36.9-34.5% and wins 13  states with a 142-51 lead in electoral votes.

In anticipation of the final presidential debate, it is instructive to recall the Democratic primaries. Eleven of 26 exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error – a 1 in 77 billion probability. 

Wikileaks documents provide confirmation that the primaries were rigged against Sanders while Donald Trump easily won the Republican primaries.

Other than Fox News, the Clinton email scandal is ignored in the mainstream media. They would rather focus on  Trump’s locker room comments years ago- which are no different than the language used every day on cable and in films.  The media would rather dwell on this non-issue than discuss the monumental Clinton/DNC scandals unfolding every day.

 

View the  spreadsheet calculations and source data links.

The Fox Poll

Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein na
Ind 19% 35% 30% 10% 7% 18%
Dem 43% 85% 5% 2% 2% 6%
Rep 38% 5% 82% 6% 2% 5%
 Calc 100% 45.1% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0% 7.9%
 Poll 100% 45.0% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0% 8.0%

 True Vote: Gallup party affiliation survey 

Gallup  Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 20% 30% 20% 30%
Dem 32% 80% 5% 5% 10%
Rep 28% 5% 80% 12% 3%
 Calc 100% 35.0% 36.0% 13.0% 16.0%
 Poll 92% 45.0% 39.0% 5.0% 3.0%
 Diff 8% -10.0% -3.0% 8.0% 13.0%

15 Battleground states

Gallup Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 38.7% 20% 30% 20% 30%
Dem 31.6% 80% 5% 5% 10%
Rep 29.7% 5% 80% 12% 3%
 Calc 100% 34.5% 37.0% 12.9% 15.7%
 Poll 95.0% 45.4% 42.9% 5.4% 1.3%
 Diff 5.0% -10.9% -6.0% 7.5% 14.4%
 Gallup   Party-ID
EV Dem Rep Ind
AZ 11 22.8% 27.3% 49.8%
CO 9 24.4% 26.2% 49.5%
FL 29 30.6% 27.8% 41.5%
GA 16 30.8% 34.2% 35.0%
IA 6 24.5% 25.4% 50.0%
ME 4 25.2% 21.5% 53.3%
MI 16 34.7% 29.4% 35.9%
MN 10 34.7% 31.0% 34.3%
MO 10 30.8% 35.0% 34.2%
NC 15 32.9% 24.2% 42.9%
NV 6 31.3% 27.5% 41.2%
OH 18 32.4% 33.4% 34.2%
PA 20 39.1% 29.2% 31.8%
VA 13 31.6% 33.4% 35.0%
WI 10 33.9% 32.6% 33.5%
 Total Evote  193
Average 30.6% 29.2% 40.1%
Wtd Avg 31.6% 29.7% 38.7%
 Polls       Trump Clinton
 10/19 Clinton Trump Johnson Stein EVote EVote
AZ 42 44 9 1 11
CO 45 37 10 3 9
FL 48 44 4 1 29
GA 42 48 4 0 16
IA 39 43 6 2 6
ME 44 36 9 3 4
MI 47 37 7 4 16
MN 43 43 4 2 tie tie
MO 42 47 4 1 10
NC 48 47 4 0 15
NV 47 40 7 0 6
OH 45 45 6 1 tie tie
PA 47 41 6 1 20
VA 46 43 6 0 13
WI 47 39 1 3 10
 Total EV          43 122 
Average 44.8 42.3 5.8 1.5
Wtd Avg 45.4 42.9 5.4 1.3
 Gallup Party_ID       Trump Clinton
 True Vote Clinton Trump Johnson Stein EVote EVote
AZ 29.6% 38.0% 14.4% 18.1% 11
CO 30.7% 37.0% 14.3% 18.1% 9
FL 34.2% 36.2% 13.2% 16.3% 29
GA 33.4% 39.4% 12.6% 14.6% 16
IA 30.9% 36.6% 14.3% 18.2% 6
ME 31.9% 34.5% 14.5% 19.1% 4
MI 36.4% 36.0% 12.4% 15.1% 16
MN 36.2% 36.8% 12.3% 14.7% 10
MO 33.2% 39.8% 12.6% 14.4% 10
NC 36.1% 33.9% 13.1% 16.9% 15
NV 34.7% 35.9% 13.1% 16.3% 6
OH 34.4% 38.6% 12.5% 14.5% 18
PA 39.1% 34.9% 11.8% 14.3% 20
VA 34.0% 38.8% 12.6% 14.7% 13
WI 35.5% 37.8% 12.3% 14.4% 10
Total EV  142  51
Average 34.0% 36.9% 13.1% 16.0%
Wtd Avg 34.5% 36.9% 12.9% 15.7%
 
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Posted by on October 19, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud

Richard Charnin

Oct. 7, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud 

The 2016 Democratic primaries have finally awakened the public to Election Fraud. Millions of voters who were unaware or in denial came to realize that our election system was rigged and that the mainstream media is complicit in covering up Election Fraud.

The media and its cadre of exit poll naysayers in the corporate media don’t dare mention the third-rail of American politics – election fraud. The media pundits remain silent on electronic vote rigging. They maintain that the exit polls are inaccurate and call truth-seeking activists conspiracy buffs.

The media is silent on the 2015 Year in Elections report, an independent research project by 2,000 elections experts from Harvard University and the University of Sydney. The report ranked the United States dead last in electoral integrity among established Western democracies in evaluating the  integrity of 180 national parliamentary and presidential contests held July 1, 2012 to December 31, 2015 in 139 countries worldwide.

This book focuses largely on exit polls since they are the focus of virtually all naysayer arguments. But cumulative vote share analysis is based on actual vote counts and is a companion method. The two mathematical methods confirm each other and overwhelmingly prove election fraud. The State Department relies on exit polls in elections overseas to check for fraud if the discrepancies exceed 2%. There is no such check in the U.S.

Overwhelming evidence shows that Sanders won the primaries, despite the 3 million Clinton vote margin repeated endlessly in the media. He won the vast majority of 18-34 year-old voters.  His positions on Wall Street corruption, universal health care, eliminating student debt, etc. made him an overwhelming favorite among young voters.

 

 
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Posted by on October 7, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Aug.24: Jill Stein at 3% and Independents just 12% of the electorate?

Richard Charnin
Aug. 26, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

LINKS TO  POSTS
Democratic Primaries spread sheet
From TDMS Research: Democratic 2016 primaries

In the Aug. 24 Ipsos/Reuters poll  Clinton had 39%; Trump 36%; Johnson 7%;  Stein 3%. The sample of 1,516 Americans included 635 Democrats (41.9%), 527 Republicans (34.8%), 174 Independents (11.5%) and 180 (11.8%) who did not indicate a preference.  http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7349

The latest Gallup Party-ID survey indicates 28% Democrats, 28% Republicans and 42% Independents.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

In the July 17 Ipsos poll, Independents comprised just 14% of the sample. Stein had 1%. Clinton and Trump were tied.  https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/08/07/strange-polls-jill-stein-at-1-and-just-14-of-respondents-are-independents/

Why the large discrepancies between the Ipsos poll and Gallup Party-ID survey?

The Ipsos poll also indicated a Party_ID split of  36% Democrats and  25% Republicans – an apparent contradiction to the polling sample. Assuming the other 39%  were Independents, it is a close match to the Gallup Survey.

In the primaries, Sanders won approximately 65% of Independents and 35% of Democrats. One would logically expect that Stein would do nearly as well as Sanders against Clinton in a four-way race. They are in essential agreement on major issues – and Clinton has very low approval ratings. But Stein had an implausibly low 3% on Aug. 24 and 1% on July 17.

True Vote Model Model Base Case

This is not a forecast. It is a scenario analysis based on the following assumptions.

Party-ID:  39% Independents, 36% Democrats, 25% Republicans.
Vote shares: Stein has 40% of Independents and 35% of Democrats.  Clinton has 25% and 50%, respectively. They each have 5% of Republicans.

Base Case Result
Stein 29.45% and 231 EV,  Clinton 29.00% and 196 EV, Trump 25.15% and 111 EV. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Party-ID Pct Stein Clinton Trump Johnson
Ind 39% 40% 25% 15% 20%
Dem 36% 35% 50% 5% 10%
Rep 25% 5% 5% 70% 20%
Total 100% 29.45% 29.00% 25.15% 16.40%
Votes 129,106 38,022 37,441 32,470 21,173
Elect Vote 538 231 196 111 0

 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS Stein % Dem
Stein % 31.0% 33.0% 35.0% 37.0% 39.0%
of Ind Stein
45% 30.0% 30.7% 31.4% 32.1% 32.8%
40% 28.0% 28.7% 29.45% 30.2% 30.9%
35% 26.1% 26.8% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9%
Clinton
45% 28.5% 27.8% 27.1% 26.3% 25.6%
40% 30.4% 29.7% 29.00% 28.3% 27.6%
35% 32.4% 31.7% 31.0% 30.2% 29.5%
Stein Margin
45% 1.5% 2.9% 4.4% 5.8% 7.2%
40% -2.4% -1.0% 0.45% 1.9% 3.3%
35% -6.3% -4.9% -3.5% -2.0% -0.6%
Vote Margin (000)
45% 1,898 3,757 5,616 7,475 9,334
40% -3,137 -1,278 581 2,440 4,299
35% -8,172 -6,313 -4,454 -2,595 -736

 

 
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Posted by on August 26, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Tim Robbins: We Need to Fix Our Broken Election System

Richard Charnin
May 5, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Tim Robbins, a fine actor and dedicated progressive activist, wrote We Need to Fix Our Election System in the Huffington Post. We need more of his kind.

“Going into Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Indiana, polls showed Bernie Sanders trailing Hillary Clinton by around 7 percent. The final tally had Sanders up by 6 percent, a 13 point difference that seems to follow a pattern of polling discrepancies in this primary process that are quite troubling. A couple of weeks ago I shared a post containing statistics compiled from CNN and the New York Times figures comparing Democratic Party primary exit polls and final election results. The numbers show a significant discrepancy between the two, favoring Hillary Clinton in all but one of the primaries by an average of 9.02 percent and in the New York primary by 16 percent. The post carried an incendiary headline, suggesting election fraud, which caused quite a ruckus. I’m glad it did. We need to have this discussion.

This posting led to the predictable onslaught of internet trolls calling me crazy, conspiracy theorist, etc., all the talking points that are being masterminded by the sleaze-meisters over at David Brock’s Correct the Record, a Hillary Clinton Super PAC. The post also brought criticism from the mainstream media, but that is no surprise to me. I’ve been there before. In the 2002-3 campaign to stop the Iraq war, others and I were characterized as crazy, conspiracy theorists, etc., as mainstream media shamefully abdicated its role in a functioning democracy by becoming a propaganda arm for Bush and Co. Yes. The New York Times did that, and the Washington Post and ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, PBS, NPR etc. We, the millions who across the world were saying no, who were aware of the lies that Bush and Co. were telling, were ignored by the mainstream media, marginalized as radicals and told by pundits to shut our unpatriotic mouths.

So when that happened to me again two weeks ago, often by the same organizations that had marginalized me for my opposition to the war in 2002-3, I recognized the familiarity of it all. Could my post have touched a nerve? It certainly did with Joshua Holland, who wrote in Raw Story that I was involved with a “rabbit hole of misinformation and conspiracism.” He then goes on to refute the claims of election fraud with seemingly empirical statistical evidence. Now, I am not a mathematician. But Richard Charnin is. He has two master’s degrees in applied mathematics and has followed presidential elections since 1952. He took issue with Mr. Holland’s article. I defer to his expertise: “Election Fraud: Response to Joshua Holland.”

Read the rest of the article here. View the 2016 Democratic primaries spreadsheet.

This is how the exit pollsters forced a match to the IN recorded vote.

Indiana exit poll
Unadjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 42% 40% 60%
Women 58% 48% 52%
 Total 100% 44.64% 55.36%
Final Adjusted 1323 resp Clinton Sanders
Men 41% 43% 57%
Women 59% 50% 50%
 Total 100% 47.13% 52.87%

DATA SOURCES
The table below was created by Theodore de Macedo Soares (tedsoares@yahoo.com)
CNN is the source of the state exit polls which were downloaded shortly after closing.
The NY Times is the source of the reported vote counts.

Inline image

 

 
 

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis