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THE 2016 ELECTION MODEL (8 PRE-ELECTION POLLS)

THE 2016 ELECTION MODEL (8 PRE-ELECTION POLLS)

Richard Charnin
Oct. 26,2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

This is the ONLY model which compares pre-election vote shares and corresponding Electoral votes to the adjusted Gallup affiliation survey (40 Ind-32 Dem-28 Rep).It will be updated as often as possible.

View the model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Clinton currently leads in 7 of the 8 published polls (Yellow cells). One (Gravis) is tied.
Using Gallup-adjusted weights (Blue cells), Trump leads in 4, Clinton leads in 4

The model uses the poll vote shares which match the published polls.
But Jill Stein must be doing much better than 1-3%.
THEREFORE HILLARY CLINTON MUST BE DOING WORSE THAN THE POLLS INDICATE.

Electoral votes for the Gallup adjusted weights:
…………Clinton Trump
Ipsos/Reuters 232 306
IBD 202 336
Rasmussen 80 458
Quinnipiac 354 184
Fox News 335 203
CNN 335 203
ABC/WashPost 459 79
Gravis 147 391

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Posted by on October 26, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

Richard Charnin
Oct. 23, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly  is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares  to  those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey  weights (currently  40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey  weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind.  Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only  poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model  (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

 Poll share   Electoral Vote  
Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 42.1 39.6 298 240
Rasmussen 40.9 42.9 211 327
IBD/TIPP 39.5 42.2 202 336
Quinnipiac 47.6 39.7 444 94
Fox News 45 39 354 184
Average 43.02 40.68 301.8 236.2
 Gallup affiliation:   Poll share   Electoral Vote
40Ind;32Dem;28Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 36.4 37.7 232 306
Rasmussen 36.8 47.4 81 457
IBD/TIPP 36.5 45.4 42 496
Quinnipiac 45.4 40.5 354 184
Fox News 41.3 37.9 335 203
Average 39.28 41.78 208.8 329.2

 

Party ID Mix Ind Dem Rep
Ipsos 13 46 41
Rasmussen 32 40 28
IBD/TIPP 38 35 27
Quinnipiac 26 40 34
Fox News 19 43 38
Average 25.6 40.8 33.6
 Independent shares    
Poll Clinton Trump
Ipsos 23 34
Rasmussen 22 47
IBD/TIPP 28 44
Quinnipiac 38 42
Fox News 30 35
Average 28.2 40.4

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on October 23, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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