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Implausible: the IA Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 15, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

JILL STEIN HAD JUST 1% NATIONALLY? WHERE DID HER VOTES GO? ONE GUESS.

Trump won the IA exit poll by 48.0-44.1%
Trump won the recorded vote by 51.8-42.2%.
Why the 5.7% discrepancy?
It’s due to Clinton’s implausible 42-41% Independent exit poll margin.

Recorded Vote
Trump wins: 51.8-42.2% (148,,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 51-35%
Party ID: 31D- 34 R- 35I

Unadjusted IA exit poll
Trump wins: 48.0-44.1% (59,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 42-41%  (implausible)
Party ID: 31D- 34R- 35I

IA True Vote Model (no change to vote shares)
Trump wins 50.2-42.4% (119,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 51-35%
Party ID: 29.7D -29.0R -41.4I (derived from Gallup)

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

True Vote National Model
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I 
Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

Iowa

Unadjusted  EP Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 31% 88% 10% 1% 1%
Rep 34% 6% 90% 3% 1%
Ind 35% 42% 41% 2% 15%
Match 100% 44.0% 48.1% 2.0% 5.9%
Unadjusted 100% 44.1% 48.0% 1.8% 6.1%
Votes (000) 1,518 669 729 27 93
    Margin 59 3.9%
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 31% 88% 10% 1% 1%
Rep 34% 6% 90% 3% 1%
Ind 35% 35% 51% 5% 3%
Match 100% 41.6% 51.6% 3.1% 3.8%
Reported 100% 42.2% 51.8% 3.5% 2.5%
Votes (000) 1,518 651 799 57 11
    Margin 148 10.0%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem 29.7% 88% 10% 1% 1%
Rep 29.0% 6% 90% 3% 1%
Ind 41.4% 35% 51% 5% 3%
True Vote 100.0% 42.4% 50.2% 3.2% 4.2%
Votes (000) 1,518 643 762 49 64
    Margin 119 7.8%

Unadjusted exit polls: http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Summary: 8  Battleground states

Unadj Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Average 48.56% 45.64% 46.48% 49.35% 46.79% 49.47%
Diff -2.92% 2.87% 2.63%
NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 46.6% 50.5%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 50.7% 46.4%
PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.7% 48.6%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.8% 47.5% 47.7%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 47.2% 56.8%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 42.4% 50.2%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 46.5% 48.0%
Unadj Exit Poll Reported Vote True Vote
% Indep Clinton  Trump Clinton Trump  Clinton Trump 
Average 46.75% 41.34% 38.31% 53.63% 34.63% 55.73%
Diff -5.41% 15.31% 21.10%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 36.5% 58.5%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 46.0% 52.0%
PA 49.0% 45.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 62.0%
MI 31.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.0% 33.5% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 30.0% 60.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 43.0% 50.0% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 40.0% 50.0% 32.0% 53.0%
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Posted by on November 15, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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