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Nevada: Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll vs. True Vote

Nevada: Recorded Vote vs. Exit Poll vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Dec. 8, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won Nevada by 27,000 votes (47.9-45.5%).
She led the exit poll by 50.4-43.2% (86,000 votes)
The True Vote Model indicates that Trump won by 19,000 votes (47.2-45.4)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

The unadjusted NV exit poll is implausible based on two factors:
1) The Democratic Party-ID share (36D-28R-36I) is inflated. True Party-ID  is derived from the Gallup voter affiliation survey (40I- 32D- 28R). It is estimated as 31.3D -27.5R -41.2I.
2) Clinton’s  45-43% winning margin  of Independents required to match the “unadjusted” exit poll is implausibly high. Trump won Independents by 50-37% in the NV exit poll (matched to the recorded vote)  and by 48-44% nationally.

Summary Statistics

NV Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 50.4-43.2% (86,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 45-43%
Party ID: 36D- 28R- 36I

NV Reported Vote (CNN)
Clinton won: 47.9-45.5% (27,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 50-37%
Party ID: 36D- 28R- 36I

NV True Vote Model
Trump wins 47.2-45.4% (19,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 50-36%
Party ID: 31.3D -27.5R -41.2I (derived from Gallup)

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/states/nevada
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

Nevada          
Unadj Exit Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 36.0% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 28.0% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 36.0% 45% 43% 6% 6%
Calc 100.0% 50.8% 43.0% 3.1% 3.1%
Unadjusted 100.0% 50.9% 43.2% 3.7% 2.2%
Votes (000) 1,113 567 481 41 24
    Margin -86 -7.7%  
Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 36.0% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 28.0% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 36.0% 37% 50% 7% 6%
Calc 100.0% 48.0% 45.5% 3.4% 3.1%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 45.5% 3.3% 3.3%
Votes (000) 1,113 538 511 37 27
    Margin -27 -2.4%
True Vote Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Other
Dem 31.3% 90% 8% 1% 1%
Rep 27.5% 8% 88% 2% 2%
Ind 41.2% 36% 50% 7% 7%
Calc 100.0% 45.2% 47.3% 3.7% 3.7%
TVM bef UVA 94.5% 42.7% 44.4% 4.7% 2.7%
True Vote 100.0% 45.4% 47.2% 4.7% 2.7%
Votes (000) 1,113 506 525 53 29
    Margin 19 1.8%  
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Posted by on December 8, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Oct. 12, 2016: Online debates, focus groups and strange pre-election polls

Richard Charnin
Oct.12, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

Trump led 77-22% in the latest online debate polls of 4 million respondents. He had 59% in the online polls after the first debate. Clinton won the CNN “scientific” poll  of 537 respondents by 57-34%.

But the CNN poll indicated  that Trump did better than expected (Better 63%; Worse 21%; Same 15%). This confirms Trump’s 18% improvement in the online polls from the first debate.

In a CNN focus group, a participant reported: After the debate, they asked all of us in the focus group if we were decided on a candidate. Out of 28 panel members, 5 said they were decided on Clinton, 2 said they were decided on Trump, and 12 said they were going to vote 3rd party. But once they saw the response, they reshot the segment and replaced “3rd party” with “still undecided”.

The Frank Luntz focus group came up with an interesting result to the question:Who are you willing to vote for? Four Clinton voters and five undecideds switched to Trump.

Before the debate Hillary: 8: Trump: 9. After: Hillary: 4; Trump: 18

The latest NBC/WSJ Poll of 447 likely voters shows Clinton surging to an 11 point lead.But just like the other mainstream media pre-election polls, Independent Party ID percentages conflict with the Gallup Party Affiliation Survey.

Is there an NBC pollster Conflict of interest?

NBC Party ID Clinton Trump Stein Johnson
Dem 43.0% 94.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep 36.0% 4.0% 80.0% 1.0% 15.0%
Ind 12.0% 35.0% 37.0% 10.0% 18.0%
Match 91.0% 46.1% 35.0% 2.0% 8.0%
Poll 92.0% 46.0% 35.0% 2.0% 9.0%

Pre-election polls ask voters whether they lean to the Democrat or the Republican. But Bernie Sanders won the vast majority of Independents who will likely  vote for  Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

Estimated True Vote Model

Model Gallup Clinton Trump Stein Johnson
Dem 32.0% 80.0% 5.0% 10% 5.0%
Rep 28.0% 5.0% 85.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Ind 40.0% 20.0% 25.0% 50.0% 5.0%
VOTE 100.0% 35.0% 35.4% 24.6% 5.0%
Poll 92.0% 46.0% 35.0% 2.0% 9.0%
 
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Posted by on October 12, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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