JFK Witness Deaths: How Many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Likely Homicides?

Richard Charnin

Nov.8,2013

Updated: July 18,2014

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In prior JFK witness death analyses, the focus has been on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides and unknown causes). This post will examine the likelihood that there were many more homicides than officially reported in the period from 1964-78. The analysis assumes a base case of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses noted in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

**Unnatural Deaths**

Some have questioned the assumption that there were more homicides than officially reported. The 1964-78 national average annual homicide rate was 0.000084 (or 8 per 100,000). Among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only two (1400*15*.000084) homicides would normally have been expected in the 15 year period.

Among the 122 suspicious witness deaths from 1964-78 in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled * unnatural* (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown). The other 44 deaths were

*(25 heart attacks, 6 cancers, 13 other). But mortality rates for each cause of death buttress the suspicion that many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were homicides.*

**natural**There was a ZERO probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths in 1964-78 based on unweighted U.S. unnatural mortality rates. **But there were 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths. Using unweighted national mortality rates, the conservative probability is E-27 (1 in a trillion trillion). Using JFK-weighted mortality rates, the probability is E-62 (1 in a trillion^5).**

**Calculation of estimated JFK-related homicides**

Approximately 214 total deaths were expected among the estimated 1400 witness universe in the 15 year period from 1964-78. Of this total, 197 were expected natural based on average statistical mortality (103 heart attacks, 42 cancers and 52 other illnesses) and 17 expected unnatural deaths (2 homicides, 12 accidents, 3 suicides).

As stated above, of the 122 suspicious witness deaths from 1964-78 in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled * unnatural* (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown).Therefore, approximately 25 of the 40 deaths ruled to be accidents and suicides were homicides. Adding 25 to the 34 ruled homicides, approximately 59 of the 122 suspicious deaths were homicides. But this does not include suspicious heart attacks and sudden cancers which may have been homicides.

**Expected and official unnatural deaths, mortality rates and probabilities**

`Unnatural Exp Off Rate Probability`

Accidents 12 24 0.000594 1 in 800

Suicides 3 16 0.000130 1 in 30 million

Homicides 2 34 0.000084 1 million trillion trillion

*We determine a reasonable estimate of 63 actual homicides among the 78 ruled unnatural by simple arithmetic. Subtracting the expected number of accidental deaths and suicides from the 78 ruled unnatural:
Homicides = 63 = 78-12-3. But what about the 44 deaths ruled natural? *

The 44 natural deaths include 25 heart attacks and 19 from other causes. Unlike the documented unnatural deaths in JFK Calc, we don’t know how many deaths among the 1400+ witnesses were natural heart attacks, cancers and other causes But we do know the expected numbers: 103 heart attacks, 42 cancer and 52 other.

Let’s now estimate the number of natural deaths among the 122 suspicious deaths. Applying the (122/1400) ratio, there were an estimated 9 heart attacks, 3 cancers and 4 other illnesses. Therefore, approximately 91 were homicides.

**91 Homicides = 122 suspicious deaths -12 accidents -3 suicides -9 heart attacks -3 cancer -4 other**

1400 witnesses:1964-78

Cause......Ruled Expected

Homicide.....34 2 expected; 91 calculated = 122-12-3-9-3-4

Accident.....24 12

Suicide......16 3

Unknown.......4 0

Heart........25 9

Cancer........6 3

Other........13 4

Total.......122 122

The sheer number of unnatural deaths and their suspicious timings constitute proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.This is a summary of the calculations and graphics for various witness groupings:** https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/**

This worksheet in JFK Calc displays mortality rates for all causes of death in the 1964-1978 period (see row 40). The average rates for the period are used in the calculations. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=41

**Sensitivity Analysis**

A sensitivity analysis of the probability of homicides from 1964-78 assumes 1,400 to 20,000 witnesses and 34 to 90 homicides. Scroll down to row 50 in this sheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=27.

**For example, the conservative probability of 34 official homicides in the group of 1,400 witnesses is 1.57E-31 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). The probability is 4.97E-07 (less than 1 in a million) assuming 10,000 witnesses. **

Warren Commission apologists claim that the number of witnesses is unknowable. This is false by definition since approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Sixty-seven (67) are listed in JFK Calc. And the 59 who were not called are obviously very relevant. View the JFK Calc ‘Witness Data’ sheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

The following deaths may have very well been homicides:

**24 Accidents**

MAC WALLACE Auto crash; asleep at wheel.

DOROTHY KILGALLEN Drug overdose

Thomas E. Davis electrocuted

JAMES CADIGAN FBI document expert; Fall in home before HSCA interview.

WILLIAM SULLIVAN FBI#2 Asst. Dir. Gunshot before HSCA interview.

Hiram Ingram fall, died in 3 days of cancer

MAURICE GATLIN Fell from 6th floor, “heart attack”

Joseph C. Ayres Gunshot

J.A. Milteer Heater explosion

ROSCOE WHITE Industrial fire

WILLIAM WHALEY motor collision

JAMES WORRELL motorcycle crash

Leonard Pullin One-car crash

LEE BOWERS One-car crash. No autopsy.

John D. Sullivan Shot himself while cleaning his gun

MARY SHERMAN Stabbed; Electrocuted

Phil Geraci III (father) Electrocuted

Francis G. Powers * Helicopter crash

HALE BOGGS Plane crash

HUGH WARD Plane crash

Delesseps Morrison Plane crash

JIM REEVES * Plane crash

NANCY CAROLE TYLER Plane crash

Dorothy Hunt Plane crash

**16 Suicides**

DAVID FERRIE Brain Aneurysm (Karate Chop?)

William H. Cooper Gunshot 5 days after auto crash

ROGER CRAIG Gunshot; many attempts on life.

GARY UNDERHILL Gunshot said CIA would kill him

Robert Alan Surrey Gunshot before HSCA testimony

GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Gunshot (on day of HSCA interview)

WILLIAM PITZER Gunshot (just before retirement)

LISA HOWARD * Drug overdose on vacation.

Darrell W. Garner Drug overdose.

GRANT STOCKDALE * JFK friend; “people trying to kill me”; fall from building.

William Pawley * Gunshot

BETTY MACDONALD Hanged in Dallas Jail

James Truitt Gunshot to the head

ALBERT BOGARD Carbon monoxide in car

Bill Waters Drug overdose (Demorol). No autopsy.

Maurice Baker * Gunshot to the head

**15 Heart attack**

TOM HOWARD 48 years old

James Chaney 55

Nicholas Chetta 50

Ralph Yates 39

Billy Lovelady 41

Thomas Karamessines 61

William Harvey 61

DAVID MORALES 53

LOUIS NICHOLAS FBI In charge of JFK investigation: before HSCA interview.

J.M. ENGLISH FBI Head of Forensic sciences; before HSCA interview.

DONALD KAYLOR FBI Fingerprint expert; before HSCA interview.

REGIS KENNEDY FBI Oswald handler; before HSCA interview.

Desmond Fitzgerald Died playing tennis at 57.

BILL CHESHER Predicted he would be killed.

Winston Scott Son claimed CIA said unnatural death.

**6 Cancer/Illness**

FLORENCE SMITH Leukemia/ hemorrhage at 45

CLIFF CARTER Pneumonia (“penicillin unavailable”)

FRANK MARTIN Sudden cancer

MANUEL ARTIME Sudden cancer at 45.

Paul Dyer Sudden cancer in 28 days at 33.

JACK RUBY Sudden cancer in 29 days at 56

**HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T=15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)**

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Example: The probability P of n=34 official ruled homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is

P= 1.57E-31 = 1 in 6 million trillion trillion

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=27

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.