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Probability Analysis: DNC, Wikileaks, Clinton Foundation suspicious deaths

Richard Charnin
Updated: 11/9/19

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There were at least 21 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related deaths in 28 months from April 2016 to Aug 2018.  Of the 21 deaths, 17 were reported unnatural (one accident, 5 suicides, 11 homicides) and 4 were from natural causes (2 heart attack, 2 cancer). This update calculates the probabilities based on 1) the weighted average mortality rate of  the 17 unnatural deaths and 2) the assumption that the 17 were all homicides.

Based on circumstantial evidence, it is highly likely that many of the  accidents, suicides and  natural deaths were actually homicides. The 4 reported natural deaths were not included in the calculations.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. Given unnatural death rate  R, the probability P of at least n deaths among a group of N individuals in T years is  P  = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true) where E=N*R*T.

This spreadsheet calculates the probability for any combination of N, n, R and T. Age-adjusted death rates were based on U.S. mortality/deaths by major causes

Assuming N=10,000  DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related individuals, the probability of at least 17 homicides (R=0.00006) is 1 in 4.3 trillion (2.3E-13).                               
The probability of  1 accident, 5 suicides and 11 homicides (given the weighted unnatural rate R=0.00015) is 1 in 5.8 million. 

Sensitivity Matrix: Probabilities of n=8 to 17 homicides for N= 10,000-50,000 

n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
8 1.1E-04 8.1E-03 6.4E-02 2.0E-01 4.0E-01
11 2.8E-07 1.6E-04 4.1E-03 2.8E-02 9.9E-02
14 3.5E-10 1.6E-06 1.3E-04 2.0E-03 1.3E-02
17 2.3E-13 8.1E-09 2.2E-06 7.8E-05 9.6E-04
1 in 4.3 trillion 124 million 464,000 12,700 1,044

 

Suspicious deaths
5 Wikileaks: Jones, Ratner,  McFayden, Smith, Dolan
7 Clinton Foundation: Flynn, Petersen, Eberwein, Lorich, Sherman (2), Cincinelli
4 DNC: Seth Rich, Montano, Lucas, Whisenant
6 Other: Ashe, Thorn, Rago, Smolek, Mostyn, Moore

2016 (10)
4/18  John JonesAssange lawyer, run over by train. Suicide?
5/11: Michael Ratner, Wikileaks NY lawyer, cancer.
6/22  John Ashe, former UN official.  Initially reported as a heart attack,  the official story changed to his accidentally dropping a barbell on his throat. Ashe was about to begin trial for a bribery charge involving Chinese businessman Ng Lap Seng, who had been implicated in the 1996 “China-gate” scandal  Ashe was supposed to testify about Clinton’s links to Ng Lap Seng. Accident?
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, writing for  Breitbart News, died of a heart attack within hours after reporting on the Clinton Foundation China connection.

7/10  Seth Rich, DNC e-mail leaker to Wikileaks, shot twice in back, died in hospital.

7/25: Joe Montano, 47, Chairman of DNC,  heart attack,  right after the WikiLeaks email dump proving the DNC sabotaged Bernie Sanders and handed the nomination to Hillary Clinton. No history of heart problems.
8/01 Victor Thorn,  author of books on Clintons, gunshots. Suicide?
8/02  Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs. Suicide?
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov:  Monica Petersen, investigating CF child trafficking, found dead in Haiti. Suicide?

2017 (9)
May: Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach. Suicide?
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity. Suicide?
Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead. Suicide?
Kurt Smolek, ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Suicide?
Nov: Steve Mostyn, 46, Texas-based trial lawyer,  member of George Soros-founded Democracy Alliance, major Democratic benefactor, died suddenly. Suicide?
Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Suicide?
Barry and Honey Sherman. Originally declared a murder-suicide, investigators concluded it was a murder staged to look like a murder-suicide involving multiple perpetrators. Barry Sherman founded Apotex pharmaceutical company which supplied generic drugs to the Clinton foundation in Haiti and Rwanda. The Clinton Foundation was scandalized when it was discovered that AIDS drugs sent to the third world were watered-down.

2018
Jan: James Dolan, 36, Wikileaks developer. Suicide ?
Aug: Jen Moore, journalist of Clinton sex crimes, found dead in a DC hotel. Suicide?

2019
July: Salvatore Cincinelli, Supervisory FBI special agent who spearheaded many of the FBI’s high-profile and complex Wall Street investigations, including probing the finances of the Clinton Foundation. Reportedly shot and killed himself on a crowded night-club dance floor, according to top FBI insiders. Suicide?

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

 New Developments in the Seth Rich case             

Written By: Tracy Beanz

An amended complaint in a civil suit brings to light new information in the controversial death of DNC staffer Seth Rich

A newly filed amended complaint in a lawsuit brought against a litany of defendants, including Turner Broadcasting, Anderson Cooper and the NY Times, alleges that Ellen Ratner, a Fox News analyst and White House Correspondent for Talk Media News, met with Julian Assange in the Fall of 2016 and received information from Assange that Seth Rich and his brother Aaron were responsible for releasing the controversial DNC emails to Wikileaks for publication.

The lawsuit seeks damages for several claims, including defamation, business disparagement, malicious prosecution, and civil rights violations.

The amended complaint contains specific details of Butowsky’s interactions with Ratner. The complaint states the following: (RCH is abbreviated to mean “Russian Collusion Hoax”)

Mr. Butowsky stumbled into the RCH crosshairs after Ellen Ratner, a news analyst for Fox News and the White House correspondent for Talk Media News, contacted him in the Fall of 2016 about a meeting she had with Mr. Assange. Ms. Ratner’s brother, the late Michael Ratner, was an attorney who had represented Mr. Assange. According to Ms. Ratner, she made a stop in London during a return flight from Berlin, and she met with Mr. Assange for approximately six hours in the Ecuadorean embassy. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange told her that Seth Rich and his brother, Aaron, were responsible for releasing the DNC emails to Wikileaks. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange wanted the information relayed to Seth’s parents, as it might explain the motive for Seth’s murder. Upon her return to the United States, Ms. Ratner asked Mr. Butowsky to contact the Rich family and relay the information from Mr. Assange, apparently because Ms. Ratner did not want her involvement to be made public. In the two months that followed, Mr. Butowsky did not attempt to contact the Rich family, but he grew increasingly frustrated as the DNC and #Resistance “journalists” blamed the Russian government for the email leak. 

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/03/insider-ed-butowsky-seth-richs-father-told-knew-sons/

Subpoenas issued for FBI, Crowdstrike and DNC : http://lawflog.com/?p=2177&fbclid=IwAR3AL2hiqAmRTo9B6oSCpeaBvCcuvI4NGTUcRrHGG5kwDOpCDqDx3jVKOsI

NSA FOIA Response reveals Seth Rich & Assange/Wikileaks communications are Classified

………………………………………………………………….

JFK WITNESS DEATHS

In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47

<https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3

Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

 
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Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized

 

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JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

JFK-related Witness Homicides: Warren Commission Apologist Confusion

Richard Charnin
Aug. 23, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

It is strange how Warren Commission apologists still can’t get the difference between a random and selected group. They claim that the universe of 1400 JFK-related witnesses is not a RANDOM group; that it is SELF-SELECTED and therefore a probability calculation of 34 official homicides from the group of 1400 over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is not valid.

The apologists have used the same talking point from their disinformation playbook years after I have explained it a number of times in various forums. To use such a convoluted argument over and over again betrays utter confusion and/or an attempt to discredit the logic of the witness unnatural death analysis.

Yes, it is true, the group of 1400 JFK assassination-related individuals is NOT a random group. AND THAT IS WHY THE ZERO PROBABILITY OF 34 HOMICIDES IN THE GROUP IS VALID. The apologists cannot or refuse to accept the logic of that simple statement of fact.

The 1400+ JFK-related witnesses are listed in Michael Benson’s “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In the group, there were 34 officially ruled homicides (actually there were quite a few more since many suicides and accidents and heart attacks were statistically proven to be inflated and therefore were actually homicides). But we will stick with the bogus 34 official homicides.

How many accidents, suicides, suspiciously timed heart attacks, and sudden cancers were likely homicides? https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/08/jfk-witness-deaths-how-many-accidents-suicides-and-natural-deaths-were-homicides/

In a RANDOM group of 1400, only two homicides would be expected given the average 0.000084 homicide rate over the 15 year period from 1964-78. But there were 34 homicides in the JFK-RELATED group of 1400!

The key point is that JFK-related witnesses were murdered at a MUCH HIGHER RATE than would be statistically expected in a RANDOM group of 1400.

The only relevant factors in calculating the probability are

1) N, the number of JFK-related witnesses
2) n, the number of official homicides
3) T, the time period in years
4) R, the average homicide rate

That is all we need to calculate the probability of n homicides in the N-group.
We first calculate E, the expected number of homicides.
E = N*T*R = 1.77 = 1400*15*0.000084.

The probability is calculated using the Poisson function:
P=POISSON (34, 1.77, false) = 1.57E-31 or 1 in 6 million trillion trillion.

This is not a poll. It is not a correlation analysis. Motivation for any given murder is not a factor. The 34 official murders among 1400 witnesses is all that matters. The 1 in 6 million trillion trillion probability means we have proven a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

HOMICIDE PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084

Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, find the probability of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is still effectively ZERO assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).

Homicide Probability Sensitivity Analysis

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N......10...... 20...... 30...... 40...... 50...... 60...... 70...... 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132
4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108
"Who's Who in the JFK Assassination"
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65
5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58

6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52
7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43

 

 
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Posted by on August 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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