Tag Archives: John McAdams debunked

Exposing John McAdams: World-class Professor of Disinformation

Exposing John McAdams: World-class Professor of Disinformation

Richard Charnin
Oct.7, 2013
Updated: July 29, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

McAdams just responded to a post of mine on the JFK Forum website he administers- a gathering place for disinformationists and lone nutters who defend the Warren Commission Report regardless of the fact that it has been relegated to the fairy tale section in the library. They defend the WC by outright lies and omissions concerning factual evidence.

McAdams’ disinformation on a) Jack Ruby, b) the Single Bullet Theory, c) Lee Harvey Oswald and d) the medical evidence has been thoroughly debunked:

In this post I will focus on bogus comments made by McAdams and others regarding the deaths of JFK witnesses. My website contains links to all of my JFK-related blog posts.

I will clear the air on the inane comments made by McAdams and others. Some comments may have been due to innocent ignorance; most are from lone nutters who must make outrageous comments to discredit my work. But they are just self-flagellating. The vast majority of Americans do not believe the Warren Report. They are quite convinced that there was a conspiracy to kill JFK.

So why do the apologists make these attempts to undermine the witness death probability analysis? Is it just a hobby or do they really believe what they write? Is McAdams such a tool that he must resort to these pathetic tactics? The “professor” lies about virtually everything. He has no shame. This is what McAdams wrote in response to my post. I refute each of his egregiously false comments below.

“This guy comes around every so often, and claims to have statistical evidence of an abnormal number of deaths among “JFK assassination witnesses.” But he’s published his list, and the vast majority of people on it are not witnesses. With very few exceptions, they have some extremely tangential connection with the assassination.

For example, the mayor of New Orleans in on the list! Further, Charnin provides no evidence of all about what the expected mortality among people of that age distribution is. Worse, the people on the list are not some objectively chosen group of people with an objectively defined “connection” with the assassination. They are people who are on the list *because* they died.

So Charnin, prove you are not merely a crackpot. Defend what you are claiming.

John McAdams, you are slipping. You forgot to call me a “buff” and criticize my “factoids”. But thanks for giving me the chance to prove that I am not a “crackpot”.

If you actually read my analysis, you did not understand it; if you did not read it, you have no basis for making those false statements. Here are the 122 JFK Calc witnesses, date and cause of death, connection, investigation in which they were called to testify and links to their testimony and bios.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy:

You say that the majority of people are not witnesses. Well, 67 of the 122 suspicious deaths were sought to testify in 4 investigations, starting with the Warren Commission in 1964 and ending at HSCA in 1978. They were relevant enough to be called as WITNESSES.

You say that I have not taken into account expected mortality rates. Oh yes I have. Here are the mortality rates for 1963-1978:

You say that I have not taken into account age distribution. Wrong again. The mortality table rates are age-adjusted for natural deaths (heart attacks, cancer, etc.). Of course, unnatural deaths are not age-adjusted. A bullet does not know the age of its victim; accidental deaths and suicides are not a function of age, either. That fact is obvious to everyone – except you. Eight-five of the 120 deaths in JFK Calc were UNNATURAL. As a professor, you should know the difference between UNNATURAL and NATURAL deaths. The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths.

You say that the names on they list are “not some objectively chosen group of people”. More than half of those on the list were called to testify. That’s an objective list, professor. The other half were well-known material witnesses who were never called to testify. Like Lee Oswald and Dorothy Kilgallen.

You say the witnesses were chosen for the death list because they died. That’s like Groucho Marx asking his guests: Who was buried in Grant’s Tomb? You bet your life they are on the list because they died – unnaturally or suspiciously. That’s the whole point, isn’t it?

The following are bogus statements made about the JFK witness death analysis – and my responses.

– I did not account for the age of the witnesses
The 1963-1978 mortality tables are age-adjusted for natural deaths (heart attacks, cancer, etc.). Unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides) comprise 85 of 120 witnesses in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Age is irrelevant for unnatural deaths. A bullet does not know the age of its victim, does it John?

-The mortality rates of these witnesses are higher than the general population (such as 7 FBI officials who died just before their scheduled HSCA testimony).
Even assuming the FBI officials were 3 times more likely to die from heart attacks, the odds are 1 in 100 billion; assuming the same rate, 1 in 190 trillion.

– Witnesses died in high-crime locations
Yes, and 51 out of  122 (42%) were in the Dallas area. How do you account for that John? Dallas has 2% of the U.S. population.

– The number of witnesses is unknowable. The HSCA statistician used that bogus claim to show that the actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds were invalid.
But the number of witnesses who testified at WC is known; we have data for the number called to testify in three other investigations. There were approximately 1100 called in total. Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination lists 1400 names of individuals related to the assassination.

– According to John McAdams, the analysis has not been peer-reviewed.
He’s right, it hasn’t. The analysis has been open to the public on the Net for a year; no one has come forward to refute it. So what gives him the right to give it negative reviews?

McAdams obviously does not consider himself qualified to do a peer-review. I have asked him to review it line by line but he has not done so. He would rather just outright lie: like when he claims that I have not analyzed defined groups of witnesses; or that the witnesses have no relevance. His statements are on the record. As the saying goes: John, you own them. They will be your legacy.

John has not done a mathematical analysis because a) he is incapable, b) is too lazy, c) realizes that a thorough, robust analysis would destroy his case. All of his posts defending the Warren Commission and his calling all respected researchers “buffs” and all witnesses “mistaken” would make him an even bigger laughingstock than he is now.

– The 122 Witnesses in the JFK Calc database are not relevant or connected to JFK
This is absurd, typical McAdams; at least 67 were sought to testify. And they had no connection?

-There is no evidence to explain motive for the killings.
Motive is not an issue; it is irrelevant. All that matters is how many were called to testify, how many died unnaturally, and the time period. This is a PARADIGM SHIFT in the analysis. Keep in mind that an unknown number of “accidents”, “suicides”, “heart attacks” and “sudden cancers” were actually homicides.

– How come Mr. Buell Wesley Frazier is still alive? Why was he not eliminated?
Wesley told the Warren Commission that the package he saw Oswald carrying into the TSBD was too small to contain a rifle. Let’s turn the question around. Do you believe Frazier or the Warren Commission which ignored his testimony? The Warren Commission ALWAYS ignored evidence which did not support its foregone conclusion that Oswald did the shooting. But to answer the question: Why not ask how come “only” 95 of the 1400 listed in Whos Who in the JFK Assassination died suspiciously? Why just focus on Frazier? Would you expect that 100 of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission would need to be be eliminated when “only” 20 to 30 were necessary to silence and send a message to the others. To question why any specific Warren Commission witness would not be eliminated while at the same time ignoring the statistically impossible number who were eliminated is patently ridiculous.

– Even though the probability that the witnesses died unnaturally is 1 in a trillion, it is not absolute ZERO so it is possible.
Yes, someone actually said that.

– The letter from the London Sunday Times Legal Manager to HSCA refutes the actuary’s calculation.
But the Sunday Times Legal Manager did not mention the actuary’s methodology or the fact that 13 of the 18 deaths were unnatural. The letter closes with the astounding statement that no one at the Times knew the actuary’s name!

– Bugliosi in his book claimed there were 2479 names in the Warren Commission index and that according to an actuary he consulted, the probability of the deaths was 1 in 1.2.
But a) the 2479 names in the index included non-witnesses like George Washington, Abe Lincoln and FDR and b) Bugliosi did not mention that total mortality rates were used in the calculation. That is incorrect. Unnatural deaths must be used.

– The London Times actuary’s odds were ridiculous and declared invalid by the HSCA.
The actuary probably worked for one of London’s largest insurance companies. The calculation was confirmed for 13 unnatural deaths among 459 witnesses and 18 total deaths among 560 witnesses.

-McAdams claims that there is no evidence that the 7 FBI agents who died mysteriously within 6 months in 1977 were called to testify at the HSCA.
But it is a fact. His statement shows desperation. He has no wiggle room to retort.

1977 mortality rates

0.004137 Heart Attack
0.000488 Accident
0.000092 Homicide
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks

The probability of n deaths among N witnesses over T years, given mortality rate R, is
P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)

Assume N=20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA.

Scenario I: 7 heart attacks (reference illustration)
P= 3.95E-14= POISSON(7,.5*20*.004137, false)
Probability: 1 in 25 trillion

Official Cause of Death
Scenario II: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents

P= 5.23E-15= POISSON(7,.5*20*.003094, false)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion

Speculative Scenario III: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides
P= 1.32E-16= POISSON(7,.5*20*.001826, false)
Probability: 1 in 7000 trillion

Speculative Scenario IV: 7 homicides
P= 1.11E-25= POISSON(7,.5*20*.000092, false)
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion

Probability Sensitivity Analysis

Three scenarios of FBI heart attack mortality, assuming 20 FBI were called to testify at HSCA : 1) equal, 2) double and 3) triple the national rate. Even if FBI heart attack mortality is triple the national rate, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 months is still infinitesimal: 1 in 100 billion.

1- 0.003094 5.23E-15 1 in 190 trillion (same rate as population)
2- 0.006049 5.54E-13 1 in 1.8 trillion (double the rate)
3- 0.009004 8.70E-12 1 in 100 billion (triple the rate)

Assume that an impossible 100 FBI were called to testify.
P= 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.

All 7 heart 5 heart/ 3 heart/
FBI attacks 2 accid. 4 murders 7 murders
08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12 8.61E-21


Posted by on October 7, 2013 in JFK


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JFK Witness Unnatural Deaths: A Statistical Summary

JFK Witness Unnatural Deaths: A Statistical Summary

Richard Charnin
Sept. 30, 2013
Updated: April 26,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

This is a summary overview of JFK-related witness death statistics and probabilities. The focus is on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides, unknown), but many suspicious (natural) deaths may have been homicides. Witness categories include FBI, CIA, Dallas police, anti-Castro Cubans, Mafia, Ruby and Oswald associates, reporters and eyewitnesses.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet is updated frequently. There were 122 suspicious deaths among approximately 1400+ JFK-related witnesses from 1964-1978. At least 78 deaths (including 34 homicides) were officially ruled unnatural. But approximately 25 accidents and suicides were likely homicides.

These graphs and tables are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

Warren Commission apologists have claimed that the witnesses were self-selected. That is not true. All were material and related to the assassination. At least 67 were sought to testify in one or more investigations; the others were highly relevant (see the selected list below).

Given that there were approximately 1400 individuals related to the assassination, why would at least 78 die unnaturally when just 18 would be expected? The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is 2.76E-62 or less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!!!

Therefore the probability threshold of beyond a reasonable doubt is met by just 6 official homicides!

Witness Deaths
Cause: Expected Official (mortality rate)

Heart attack.. 8.7 25 (0.004913)
Cancer........ 3.5 5 (0.001991)
Other......... 4.6 14 (0.002480)
Accident...... 1.0 24 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 0.23 16 (0.000130)
Homicide...... 0.15 34 (0.000084)
Unknown........0.03 4 (0.000014)

TOTAL..........18 122 (0.010207)
Who’s Who in the JFK assassination by Michael Benson, is a comprehensive encyclopedia of 1400+ JFK related witnesses. JFK Calc includes 97 of the 126 suspicious deaths listed in JFK Calc.

Crossfire by Jim Marrs is a comprehensive study of the assassination that lists 103 “convenient deaths”.

Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a detailed study of 50 mysterious witness deaths (42 homicides, 1 suicide, 7 heart attacks). All are included in the JFK Calc database.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Four investigations
In 1964-78, approximately 1100 witnesses were sought to testify in four JFK-related investigations, 552 testified at the Warren Commission and the rest were sought at the Garrison-Shaw trial, Church Committee and HSCA. Sixty-seven (67) are included in JFK Calc. At least 39 of the 63 were unnatural deaths (including 28 homicides). The others were suspiciously timed heart attacks and illnesses.

Paradigm Shift
The 67 witnesses in JFK Calc who were called to testify in the four investigations were obviously relevant. But their relationship to the assassination is a moot point; motive and connections are not parameters in the probability calculations. These are: a) number of witnesses (N), b) the number who died unnaturally (n), c) the cause of death, d) relevant time period (T), e) the average unnatural mortality rate (R). That is all the information that we need to calculate the probability of n unnatural deaths among a group of N people over a period of T years.

Distribution of unnatural deaths in JFK Calc vs. National Average
JFK-related homicides comprised 34 of 78 (44%) unnatural deaths, far exceeding the 10% National share. This anomaly lowered the unnatural mortality rate from the National average (0.000822) to the JFK-weighted average (0.000247). In any case, 78 JFK-related unnatural deaths among 1400 material witnesses from 1964-1978 is statistically impossible and proves a conspiracy.

FBI officials scheduled to testify at HSCA
Seven (7) died within a 6 month period in 1977: 2 unnaturally (gunshot, fall) and 5 from “heart attacks”. If 8 FBI were called to testify, the probability of 7 deaths in 6 MONTHS is almost equal to the London Sunday Times actuary’s probability (wrongly declared “invalid” by the HSCA statistician) of 18 material witness deaths in 3 years. Using the spreadsheet probability function:

P = Poisson(7,0.01,false)
P= 1 in 114,000 TRILLION (8.7E-18)

If an impossible 100 FBI were called, the probability is 1 in 2.7 BILLION (3.6E-10). Assuming all 7 deaths were HOMICIDES, applying the 1977 HOMICIDE RATE (0.000092), the probability is 1 in 100 MILLION TRILLION (8.6E-21)!

This is a table of probabilities for 1) 7 heart attacks, 2) 5 heart attacks; 2 accidents, 3) 7 homicides for a range of FBI called to testify.

FBI 7 heart, 5/2 mix, 7 homicides
8.. 6.63E-17; 8.72E-18; 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14; 5.23E-15; 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13; 8.79E-14; 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09; 3.61E-10; 8.61E-21

JFK-weighted average unnatural rate
The JFK-weighted rate R is the product sum:
R= 0.000247 =(0.000084*34 + 0.000594*24 + 0.00013*`16 + 0.000014*4)/78

Probability calculations
– National unnatural mortality rate- conservative, does not reflect actual JFK witness data
– JFK-weighted mortality rate – accounts for distribution of JFK witnesses cause of death
– Homicide rate – probability of homicides
Note: the applicable probability is the lower of the JFK-weighted and Homicide rates.

Poisson distribution
Calculates the probability of unlikely events. It requires the actual and expected number. We have the actual number (n) of unnatural deaths. The expected number is N*T*R, where N is number in group, T is time period in years, R is annual unnatural mortality rate.

The actuary calculated the probability of 18 witness deaths within three years of the assassination as 1 in 100,000 trillion. Thirteen (13) of the 18 deaths were unnatural: 8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides. The calculation is confirmed assuming 454 witnesses:
N witnesses: 454
n unnatural deaths: 13
T years: 3
R mortality rate: 0.000209
a = R*N*T=expected deaths = 0.28
The probability of n unnatural deaths: P(n) = a^n * exp (-a) / n! = 9.83E-18

Using the Poisson spreadsheet function:
P = POISSON(13, 0.28, false) = 9.83E-18
P = 1 in 101,774,317,639,149,952

To appreciate the magnitude of the probabilities, consider that there are an estimated 10^23 stars in the universe and 10^20 grains of sand on the earth.

Sensitivity Analysis
Calculates probabilities over a range of n deaths and N group size:

Selected JFK-related convenient deaths of witnesses not called to testify
Robert F. Kennedy-Message to Moscow emissary: “We know it was a high-level domestic political conspiracy”.
Lee Oswald-FBI informant, CIA connected, shot by Jack Ruby; “just a patsy”; no interrogation notes.
J.D. Tippit-Dallas cop. WC said he was shot at 1:16 pm. Roger Craig said he heard news at 1:06.
Mac Wallace-Texas assassin, close to LBJ; suspected shooter; fingerprint found in TSBD.
Dorothy Kilgallen-Columnist, interviewed Ruby; to “break the case wide open”; notes/manuscript disappeared.

Dorothy Hunt-Wife of E. Howard Hunt (CIA/ Watergate) who believed she was murdered in plane crash.
John D. Sullivan-Former FBI, worked under Banister and for Senator Eastland’s committee.
C.D. Jackson-Life Mag Sr VP; bought Zapruder film; Oswald rifle photo; Bilderberg /intel connections.
Tom Howard-Ruby’s lawyer. Tried to sell photo of JFK murder to LIFE.
James Chaney-Dallas motorcycle officer; “struck in the face” with bullet

Ralph Yates-Gave ride to Oswald on Nov.20 (claimed he had curtain rods).
Winston Scott-CIA officer; to discuss book on 4/30/71 with CIA Dir Helms; died April 4; manuscript stolen
Manuel Rodriguez-Pres. of Alpha 66; Military coordinator; anti-Castro group; worked with Guy Banister
Jim Koethe-Reporter in Ruby’s apartment on 11/24/63.
Florence Smith-Friend of Kilgallen, JFK, died ONE day after Kilgallen; copies of DK’s notes disappeared.

Marilyn Walle-Ruby dancer. Working on a book on the assassination.
Bill Hunter-Reporter in Ruby’s apartment on 11/24/63.
Roscoe White-Dallas policeman. In diary claimed he shot JFK with 7.65 Mauser and killed Tippit.
Nancy Tyler-Worked for Bobby Baker. Told him that JFK would replace LBJ.
John Crawford-Close friend of Ruby and Wesley Frazier, who drove Oswald to work on 11/22/63.

William Pitzer-Autopsy radiologist/photographer; planned to expose autopsy.
Mary ¬†Meyer-JFK “special” friend. Called WC a “whitewash”; would reveal all in book; diary taken by CIA.
Jack Zangretti-Mobster predicted: 3 JFK shooters, Ruby to kill Oswald, Sinatra child kidnapped 12/63.
Gary Underhill-CIA agent, claimed Agency was involved; predicted he would be killed.
Hank Killam-Husband of Ruby employee, claimed knowledge of assassination. FBI/CIA documents withheld.

Mary Sherman-Ferrie associate on covert cancer research; killed same day WC came to New Orleans.
Paul Dyer-New Orleans Police Lt.; first to question Ferrie about Oswald. Sudden cancer death in 28 days.
Charles Cabell-CIA deputy director connected to anti-Castro Cubans, brother of Dallas mayor.
Lisa Howard-Journalist/TV news (ABC). Worked on JFK/Castro negotiations; hosted party for Che Guevara
Grant Stockdale-Close friend of JFK, told attorney “people are trying to get me” day before “suicide”.

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Posted by on September 18, 2013 in JFK


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