Using True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis to Prove that Kerry won the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin

Feb. 8, 2012

Updated: Jan. 17, 2016

It never ends. The media still wants us to believe that Bush won the 2004 election by a 3 million vote margin (50.7-48.3%). They call researchers who proved that the election was stolen “conspiracy nuts”. But they have never debunked the overwhelming evidence that the election was a massive fraud. Even after inflating Bush exit poll vote shares and turnout, a True Vote sensitivity analysis shows that Kerry won all plausible scenarios. It’s time for the media to tell the truth. Kerry won a landslide. The election was stolen, just as like it was stolen from Gore in 2000.

The pundits resorted to claims that the exit polls “behaved badly”, Bush voters were “reluctant to be interviewed” by the exit pollster, returning “Gore voters lied” about their past vote and there was no correlation between “vote swing and the exit poll red-shift”. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

A comprehensive spreadsheet analysis of discrepancies between state and national unadjusted exit polls and recorded votes is overwhelming proof that election fraud is systemic. The Democrats won the 1988-2008 presidential exit polls by 52-42%, but just 48-46% in the official recorded vote.

The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) displayed on corporate media election websites indicates that Bush was the winner – until one takes a closer look. As we all should know by now, exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote – come hell or high water. In other words, they always assume zero election fraud.

The 2004 NEP indicates that 52.6 million (43%) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 45.1 million (37%) were Gore voters. As we have shown numerous times before, this is an impossible scenario.

Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Gore had 51.0 million. Approximately 5% (2.5 million) of Bush 2000 voters died, so at most 48 million returned to vote in 2004.

But 100% turnout is impossible; therefore had to be fewer than 48 million returning Bush voters. Assuming 98% turnout, 47 million returned in 2004. That is 5.6 million less than the 52.6 million indicated in the Final 2004 National Exit Poll. The media wants us to believe that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters returned in 2004.

Where did these mysterious phantom Bush voters come from? What does that tell us about the Final? And since the Final was forced to match the recorded vote, what does that tell us about the recorded vote?

The True Vote Model

Unlike the impossible Final 2004 NEP, the 2004 True Vote Model determines a feasible (i.e. mathematically possible) and plausible (likely) number of returning Bush and Gore voters. An estimated 98% of living 2000 voter turned out in 2004.

Note: There were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 (approximately 75% for Gore). Therefore, Gore’s True Vote margin was at least 4 million. But we will be conservative in assuming that he won by just 540,000 recorded votes.

Even if we use the bogus 2000 recorded vote as a basis for returning Bush and Gore voters and apply 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry is the clear winner of the Base Case scenario. He has 52.2% and a 7.3 million vote margin – with a 97% win probability.

Note that Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) with a 51.7% share. The Final NEP (also 13660 respondents) has Bush winning 50.7-48.3% (the recorded vote).

Let’s use the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (Gore had 50.8% and won by 6 million) as a basis for calculating the 2004 True Vote. Kerry’s True Vote is 54.3%. He wins the base case scenario by 12.8 million votes with a 100% win probability.

The base case assumes an equal 98% turnout of living Bush and Gore voters. Let’s assume that only 90% of Gore voters and 98% of Bush voters return. Kerry is still the winner by 10 million with a 53.2% share. He also wins the worst case scenario by 3.8 million with 50.8%.

Exit poll naysayers insist that Kerry’s early vote shares were inflated and that the Final shares listed on CNN should be used: Kerry’s 57% share of new voters is reduced to 54% and his 10% share of returning Bush voters cut to 9%. We’ll do better than that.

View the True Vote Model sensitivity analysis tables. In the worst case scenario, Kerry has just 53% of new voters and 8% of Bush voters. Kerry is still the winner by 5.9 million votes with a 51.6% share and a 94% win probability.

This refutes the media myth that Bush won. Let us count the ways:

1. Adjustments made to the National Exit Poll in order to match the recorded vote were impossible (required that 110% of living Bush 2000 voters return in 2004).

2. Kerry is a 52.2% winner assuming 98% of living Bush and Gore 2000 voters turned out in proportion to the 2000 recorded vote.

3. Kerry is a 54.3% by 12.8 million votes assuming the 2000 True Vote as the basis for returning voters.

4. Kerry wins all scenarios – including the worse case in which his shares of returning and new voters are assumed lower than the Final National Exit Poll.

5. Even assuming 98% Bush / 90% Gore turnout, Kerry wins all scenarios.

A statistical analysis of 49 Ohio 2004 exit poll precincts was produced by Ron Baiman and Kathy Dopp at U.S. Count Votes.

*Over 40% of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had statistically significant discrepancies. This is over four times the number of expected precincts with significant discrepancy.*

• 45.1% (22 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculations assume that official vote counts most accurately estimate actual vote share, and

• 40.7% (20 of 49) of Ohio’s polled precincts have significant discrepancy when calculated by assuming that exit poll results are a better estimate of real vote share.

*Ohio’s exit poll discrepancies overwhelmingly over-estimated Kerry’s official vote share:*

* • Over 35% of precincts had official Kerry vote counts and exit poll share that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In other words, Kerry’s official vote share was much smaller than expected given his exit poll share in these precincts, and*

* • 4% (2) of Ohio’s exit polled precincts had an official Bush vote that had less than a 5% chance of occurring. In these precincts Bush official vote share (assumed to be one minus their Kerry share) was much smaller than expected, given Bush’s exit poll share.*

RFK Jr wrote the landmark article:* Was the 2004 Election Stolen*

Will any media pundits, election analysts or political scientists come forward to refute the massive evidence of fraud and prove that Bush really did win a fair election? Don’t hold your breath. Job tenure is everything.

Simulation forecast trends are displayed in the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend

Electoral vote and win probability

Electoral and popular vote

Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability

National poll trend

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)

Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)

State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV

Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV

True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);

Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV

State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV

True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)

Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)

Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV

True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV