RSS

Tag Archives: London Times Actuary

JFK: Warren Commission apologists claim that…

Richard Charnin
September 11, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Twitter Chronological Links
Look inside the book:Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

Warren Commission apologists claim that…

1. Oswald shot Tippit.
But Tippit was shot no later than 1:06 pm. Oswald was seen outside his rooming house a mile away at 1:04 (some claim he was at the Texas Theater). The WC had to add 10 minutes to the time of death (1:16) to fabricate the myth that Oswald had enough time to get to the scene. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/19/jfk-did-oswald-shoot-tippit-eyewitnesses-no-warren-commission-yes/

2.The Magic Bullet theory is correct.
But the bullet entered 5.5” below JFK’s collar and never exited. Gerald R. Ford, a member of the Warren Commission, suggested that the panel raise its initial description of the bullet wound in Kennedy’s back in a transparent, illegal scam to bolster the ridiculous SBT. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/11/10/jfk-reelzs-nonsensicalsmoking-gun-the-parkland-doctors-and-executive-action/

3. The three tramps were not Harrelson, Holt and Rogers.
But they were identified by Lois Gibson , who works for the Houston Police Department and is probably the most respected forensic artist and facial expert in the world. She has just been awarded with a notation in the Guinness Book of World Records for the highest crime solving rate based on composite sketches. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FFkA9-xksdk.

4.Cancer and heart attacks cannot be induced.
But Judyth Vary Baker and Mary S. Sherman, under the direction of cancer expert Alton Ochsner, developed a cancer-producing agent to kill Castro. http://theamericanchronicle.blogspot.com/2013/04/cancer-murder-and-new-orleans.html . The 1975 Church Senate Intelligence Committee heard testimony of methods to induce heart attacks and cancer. http://www.globalresearch.ca/cia-targeted-assassinations-by-induced-heart-attack-and-cancer/5326382

5.The witness unnatural death probability calculation does not take margin of error into account.
But this was not a poll of witnesses. It is a statistical analysis based on historical data. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/04/08/a-probability-analysis-of-witness-deaths-within-one-year-of-the-jfk-assassination/

6. The Weigman photo proves that Lovelady was standing at the Doorway.
But it does not show Lovelady at 12:30. The Altgens 6 photo was taken at the precise second that JFK was shot. It shows Lovelady standing on the steps. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/10851/

7. Oswald was the Lone Gunman on the 6th floor.
But according to Det. Will Fritz, no one could place him there. And he was seen on the second floor at 12:25 by Carolyn Arnold – who was not called to testify at the WC. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/jfk-evidence-oswald-was-on-the-1st-floor-minutes-before-the-shooting/

8. No one testified that they saw Oswald in front on the steps of the Texas School Book Depository.
But the Warren Commission and the FBI had their patsy and would never allow such testimony. To claim they would is laughable disinformation. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/07/14/to-believe-oswald-was-not-standing-in-front-of-the-tsbd-you-must-believe-that/

9. Lovelady was Doorman. Oswald was not in front of the TSBD.
But Lovelady and Frazier both testified that Lovelady was standing on the steps in front of Frazier. Doorman was on the first floor. So Lovelady could not have been Doorman. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/05/30/oswald-in-the-doorway-why-is-the-preponderance-of-the-evidence-dismissed/

10. The HSCA determined that the London Times actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability that 18 material witnesses would die (13 unnaturally) within three years of the assassination was invalid. The HSCA claimed the witness universe was “unknowable”.
But the HSCA did not consider a) unnatural deaths, b) 552 Warren Commission witnesses, of whom at least 30 died suspiciously, c) 7 FBI officials were due to testify at HSCA and died suspiciously within a 6 month period, d) and at least 100 others. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/jfk-mysterious-witness-deaths-london-sunday-times-and-hsca-cover-up/

11. The HSCA noted just 21 suspicious deaths.
But not one of them was Mafia (8), CIA (16), FBI (9), Dallas police (12) or anti-Castro Cuban (5). There were at least 122 suspicious deaths between 1964 and 1979.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/31/jfk-witnesses-a-closer-look-at-the-hsca-list-of-21-deaths/

12. There is no proof that the suspicious witnesses were JFK-related.
But approximately 67 of the 122 in the JFK Calc spreadsheet were called to testify at the WC (1964), Garrison/Shaw trial (1967-69), Church Senate Intelligence Committee (1975-76) and HSCA (1976-79). https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/17/jfk-assassination-paradigm-shift-deaths-of-witnesses-called-to-testify/

13. There was no connection between the witnesses.
But at least 50 were from the Dallas area. It cannot just be a coincidence. If there was no connection, the deaths would have been distributed randomly throughout the United States. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=73

14. Warren Commission apologist John McAdams said that John Simkin’s JFK Index includes a number of individuals who were inserted in the index because they died.
That is laughable but not unexpected considering the source. Seventy (70) of the 656 died suspiciously, 44 unnaturally (including 22 homicides). The probability: 1 in trillions. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

15. Fingerprint expert Nathan Darby was proven wrong after claiming that fingerprints taken from the 6th floor of the TSBD were those of hitman Mac Wallace.
But “Wallace’s police ‘ten-print’ from his 1951 arrest, used in Mr. Darby’s comparison, was taken 12 years before the murder of JFK and even Mr Darby himself observed differences in the two prints that had arisen during the intervening time (e.g., he recorded what appeared to be an injury to the skin that was not present in the 1951 print but disrupted the 1963 print). He still felt confident enough to swear an affidavit stating that he had found 14 matching points, the threshold for admissibility in Texan courts. By all accounts, he later revisited the prints out of personal interest and found a 32-point match”. http://www.lobster-magazine.co.uk/free/lobster68/lob68-mac-wallace.pdf

16. Oswald’s palm prints were found on the Carcano
http://michaelgriffith1.tripod.com/faulty.htm
But Dallas police officials said during public interviews that Oswald’s prints had NOT been found on the weapon. When the FBI’s Latona examined the Carcano on November 23, he did not find Oswald’s prints on the weapon. Moreover, Latona said the rifle’s barrel did NOT look as though it had even been processed for prints. There is evidence that suggests the palm print was obtained from Oswald’s dead body at the morgue, or later at the funeral home So suspicious was the palm print that even the WC privately had doubts about the manner in which it was obtained (Garrison 113; Marrs 445; cf. Lane 153-158)

17. Oswald purchased the Mannlicher-Carcano rifle by mail-order under the alias “Alek Hidell”.
But this video proves that Oswald never ordered the rifle.

Why would he order a sub-par rifle from Klein’s Sporting Goods in Chicago using an alias when he could have purchased a superior rifle anonymously anywhere in Texas?

http://michaelgriffith1.tripod.com/faulty.htm
– Oswald was at work when he is said to have purchased the money order. So who bought the money order? If Oswald didn’t buy it, why does the handwriting seem to be his? There are forgers who can copy a person’s handwriting so well that it is difficult if not impossible to detect the fakery. The original order form and envelope were destroyed, so the FBI had to rely on microfilm copies of this evidence.

– Nobody at Oswald’s post office reported giving him a hefty package such as the kind in which a rifle would be shipped. None of the postal workers reported ever giving Oswald ANY kind of a package. Oddly, the FBI apparently made no effort to establish that Oswald picked up the rifle from the post office, or that he had ever received a package of any kind there.

– Postal regulations required that only those persons named on the post office box registration form could receive items of mail from the box, yet there is no evidence that Oswald listed the name of Hidell on the form (Smith 290-291). In a report dated 3 June 1964, the FBI stated, “Our investigation has revealed that Oswald did NOT indicate on his application that others, including an ‘A. Hidell,’ would receive mail through the box in question”.

– There is a discrepancy in size between the weapon ordered by “A. Hidell” and the rifle that Oswald allegedly left behind on the sixth floor of the TSBD. “A. Hidell” ordered item C20-T750 from an advertisement placed by Klein’s Sporting Goods in the February 1963 issue of AMERICAN RIFLEMAN. The rifle that was listed as item C20-T750 is 36 inches long. The Mannlicher-Carcano that Oswald supposedly abandoned on the sixth floor of the Book Depository Building is 40.2 inches long.

Advertisements
 
Leave a comment

Posted by on September 11, 2015 in Uncategorized

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

JFK: Confirming the London Sunday Times Actuary’s 100,000 Trillion to One Odds

Richard Charnin
Sept.1, 2014
Updated Oct.1, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

An actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to one odds against 18 JFK material witnesses dying in the three year period ending in Feb. 1967. The odds were displayed in the 1972 film “Executive Action”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9f96oieNA8

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

The calculation has been the source of much controversy. Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. Penn Jones was the first independent researcher to investigate unnatural deaths: https://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=IB5JGfxIxFk&feature=endscreen

The Poisson Probability Function

The actuary’s odds are matched assuming N=454 witnesses (the CIA claimed 418 testified  in person at the Warren Commission). A total of 552 testified (including depositions). There were n=13 unnatural deaths among the 18 material witnesses. We will ignore the five suspicious natural deaths.

The expected number E of unnatural deaths is based on N=454,T=3 years, R=0.000209 the weighted unnatural death rate:
E = N*T*R= 0.285 = 454*3*0.000209
P = Poisson (13, E, false)
P = 9.83E-18 = 1 in 100,000 trillion

It is important to note that the actuary worked with limited information. There were actually at least 42 unnatural JFK-related deaths in the three years following the assassination. View the JFK Calc spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

There were at least 10 unnatural deaths among the 418 witnesses who testified in person at the Warren Commission in the three years ending Feb. 1967. The probability is:P= 2.4E-15 = 1 in 400 trillion

There were 20 unnatural deaths among the 552 total witnesses in the 15 years from 1964-78. The probability is:P= 6.35E-16 = 1 in 1500 trillion

In 1978, the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) investigated the allegation (based on the actuary) that a statistically improbable number of individuals with some direct or peripheral association with the Kennedy assassination died as a result of that assassination, thereby raising the specter of conspiracy.

The HSCA declared that the actuary’s calculation was invalid, claiming that the universe (number of witnesses) was unknowable. Warren Commission defenders (Bugliosi, McAdams, Posner, etc.) have questioned the relevance of witness connections to the assassination. The HSCA made a number of errors in coming to that conclusion, It did not cite the
1. suspicious deaths of anti-Castro, CIA, mafia, Dallas police
2. unnatural witness deaths, the key statistic in the analysis
3. known universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses
4. 500+ called to testify by Garrison, Church and HSCA
5. identity of the actuary
6. methodology used by the actuary
7. 100+ suspicious deaths
8. deaths of Oswald, Ruby, DeMorenschildt, Ferrie, Craig etc.
9. 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period in 1977.

Unnatural Mortality Rates and Expected Deaths
U.S. National Center for Health Statistics http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

In order to calculate the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths in a given group, we must first determine the expected number (E) of unnatural deaths.

E= N*T*R, where N is the size of the witness universe, T the time period under study in years, and R the average unnatural mortality rate.

Let H = the number of homicides, A = accidental deaths, S = suicides.
The actuary’s 13 unnatural deaths consist of:
H=8 homicides, A=3 accidents and S=2 suicides.

The corresponding average mortality rates for the period from 1964-66:
HR= 0.000061, AR= 0.000658, SR = 0.000128
The total unnatural rate (unweighted):
RT = HR+ AR+ SR = 0.000847

The total number ET of expected unnatural deaths:
ET = 1.15 = 454*3*0.000847
Only one unnatural death would be expected! But there were 13.

The weighted average mortality rate R is:
R = (H*HR + A*AR + S*SR)/ (H+A+S)
The average weighted unnatural rate:
R = .000209 = (8*0.000061+ 3*0.000658+ 2*0.000128)/13

The expected number E of unnatural deaths is based on the weighted rate:
E = 0.285 = 454*3*0.000209

The Poisson Probability Function
The Poisson function calculates the probability of 13 unnatural deaths in three years assuming 454 witnesses to match the actuary’s odds.
P = Poisson (13, 0.285, false)
P = 9.83E-18 = 1 in 100,000 trillion

If the 3 accidents and 2 suicides were actually homicides, then applying the 0.000061 average homicide rate, we have 13 homicides among 454 witnesses over three years.
E= 0.083= 454*3*0.000061
P= Poisson (13, 0.083, false)
P = 1.33E-24= 1 in 750 million trillion

Data Source
The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination contains information on 1400+ JFK-related suspects, victims, witnesses,Law Enforcement officials and investigators. Approximately 100 died suspiciously in 1964-78 and are listed in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database.

Crossfire, by Jim Marrs, includes a list of 103 “convenient deaths”. http://www.assassinationresearch.com/v1n2/deaths.html

There are 122 suspicious deaths (78 officially ruled unnatural) listed in the spreadsheet JFK Calc. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is 1 in trillions. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

The Simkin JFK Spartacus Education website contains biographies of 656 JFK-related individuals. http://spartacus-educational.com/JFKindex.htm Approximately 70 died suspiciously (44 unnatutally, included 22 homicides). The probability is 1 in trillions. View the complete Simkin list and the 70 unnatural deaths in JFK Calc. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

HSCA Testimony
The chief of research of the HSCA, Jacqueline Hess, testified: http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm
Our final conclusion on the issue is that the available evidence does not establish anything about the nature of these deaths which would indicate that the deaths were in some manner, either direct or peripheral, caused by the assassination of President Kennedy or by any aspect of the subsequent investigation.

One, to compute valid actuarial statistics, one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, the number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

This was an incorrect statement. The universe of witnesses could be the four investigations in which at least 67 died suspiciously from 1964-78.

Two, in addition, for each of the individuals identified in the groups I have just listed, we would have to establish age, sex, race, occupation, geographical location, and any other extraordinary factors which have to be taken into consideration in order to compute mortality rates. Again, this was judged to be an impossible job.

Another incorrect statement. Natural mortality rates (heart attack, cancer, etc.) are age adjusted. Unnatural death rates are not age-related.

Three, we would need to determine the number of individuals in these categories who have, in fact, died and the number of individuals who, according to actuarial mortality rates, should have died.We had thus established the impossibility of attempting establish through the application of actuarial principles, any meaningful implications about the existence or absence of a conspiracy. Despite the fact that an inference of conspiracy, as here postulated by the critics, did not exist, we nevertheless decided not to dismiss the cited deaths out of hand, but rather, to look more closely at the nature of certain specific deaths to determine whether or not they could individually be considered mysterious or in some other manner a reflection of some sort of conspiracy.

Impossible to determine an approximate number of JFK-related individuals who died suspiciously? That is a canard. All the HSCA had to do was view the list of those called to testify in four JFK investigations – including the HSCA. It ignored 100+ deaths, including 7 top FBI officials who died suspiciously within 6 months in 1977, De Morenschildt and others who were due to testify at HSCA. Note: Hess noted 23 names, including two key Mafia figures (Sam Giancana and John Roselli). But the two were not included in the detailed report requested by the HSCA interrogator. Strange. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

Mr. EDGAR – Will you provide for the record a detailed listing of the 21 names and the evidence you have found relating to their deaths?
Ms. HESS – Yes. Do you want me to read them for the record?
Mr. EDGAR – It might be helpful.

Ms. HESS – Edward Benavides, Albert Guy Bogard, Hale Boggs, Lee Bowers, Jr., Bill Chesher, Nicholas J. Chetta, David Goldstein, Thomas Hale Howard, William Hunter, Clyde Johnson, Dorothy Kilgallen, Thomas Henry Killam, Jim Koethe, FNU Levens, Nancy Jane Mooney, Teresa Norton, Earlene Roberts, Harold Russell, Marilyn April Walle, a.k.a. Betty McDonald, William W. Whaley, James R. Worrell, Sam Giancana, John Roselli.

Mr. EDGAR – Thank you. I think it very helpful for the record that those names be included. Can you indicate why Mr. DeMohrenschildt’s name was not included?
Ms. HESS – His was one of those which deemed further investigation and became part of a great investigative effort.

Actuary – 18 material witness deaths
M=homicide, A=accident, S=suicide, H=heart attack, O=other
W = testified at WC
Note:* No anti-Castro; CIA; Mafia; Dallas police in HSCA list of 21 deaths

S 6402 BETTY MACDONALD W
M 6403 HANK KILLAM
H 6403 BILL CHESHER
M 6404 BILL HUNTER
M 6405 GARY UNDERHILL * CIA/Life magazine, predicted his death

M 6409 JIM KOETHE
H 6503 TOM HOWARD
M 6507 HAROLD RUSSEL W
A 6512 WILLIAM WHALEY W
H 6601 EARLENE ROBERTS W

S 6602 ALBERT BOGARD W
O 6606 FRANK MARTIN W * Dallas Policeman (sudden cancer)
A 6608 LEE BOWERS W
M 6610 WILLIAM PITZER * Navy autopsy photographer, near retirement
A 6611 JAMES WORRELL W

O 6701 JACK RUBY W * Connected to Dallas PD, mob (sudden cancer)
M 6702 DAVID FERRIE * CIA, knew Oswald
M 6702 ELADIO DEL VALLE * anti-Castro, knew Ferrie

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

 
3 Comments

Posted by on September 1, 2014 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

JFK Mysterious Witness Deaths: London Sunday Times and HSCA Cover-up

JFK Mysterious Witness Deaths: London Sunday Times and HSCA Cover-up

Richard Charnin
July 1, 2013
Updated: July 30, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

In 1964, the Warren_Commission ignored the testimony of 51 eyewitnesses who claimed that the shots came from the Grassy Knoll area. Just 32 said they came from the Texas School Book Depository while 38 had no opinion. In 1978 the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) was forced to conclude that there was a “probable” conspiracy based on acoustic evidence – a 96% probability of at least four shots (including at least one from the Grassy Knoll). The physical evidence indicates more than four shots. Some shooters probably used silencers.

Despite all of the evidence to the contrary, the HSCA was not about to refute the Warren Commission’s outrageous Single Bullet Theory. It still maintained that Oswald fired from the TSBD – and the other shooter(s) must have missed. Incredibly, the HSCA floated the canard that the shooters may have acted independently.

These graphs and tables are mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

So it is not surprising that prior to the presentation of the acoustic evidence, the HSCA would use obfuscation and factual omission in an attempt to refute an actuary’s calculation of 100,000 trillion to 1 odds of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. If the odds were essentially correct, it would force the HSCA to conclude a conspiracy. The HSCA statistician claimed – incorrectly- that it was impossible to determine a known universe of witnesses.

There was a defined universe of an estimated 1100 witnesses who were called in 1964-78 to testify: 552 by the Warren Commission, the others at the Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate hearings and HSCA. At least 67 died (46 unnaturally). The probability of 46 unnatural deaths is 4.9E-45 (less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION).

Many died just before their scheduled testimony. For example, in 1977 seven FBI officials called to testify at HSCA died suspiciously (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents) in a 6 month period. The following table displays the probabilities of 1) 7 heart attacks, 2) 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents, and 3) 7 homicides for various assumptions of FBI officials called to testify.

FBI 7 heart, 5/2 mix, 7 homicides
8.. 6.63E-17; 8.72E-18; 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14; 5.23E-15; 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13; 8.79E-14; 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09; 3.61E-10; 8.61E-21

There were at least 122 unnatural and suspicious deaths in the 15 year period from 1964-1978. Notice the spikes in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (HSCA).

The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

Ms. HESS (HSCA statistician)
Mr. Chairman, members of the committee. The issue of mysterious deaths, that is, that a statistically improbable number of individuals with some direct or peripheral association with the Kennedy assassination died as a result of that assassination, thereby raising the specter of conspiracy, was first brought to national attention as the result of a promotional campaign for the movie “Executive Action” which was based on Mark Lane’s novel, “Rush to Judgment.” Mr. Chairman, I would direct your attention to JFK exhibit F-544 and ask that it be admitted into the record at this time.

Chairman STOKES – Without objection.

JFK EXHIBIT F-544
Ms. HESS
It is a blowup of an advertisement for the movie Executive Action. As you can see, it states that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times concluded that on November 22, the odds against 18 material witnesses being dead within a three year period were 100,000 trillion to 1. Since the publication of that figure, it has turned up in articles, letters, books, and conversation as anywhere from 1,000-to-1 to 1 billion-to-1. Very few people seem to know what it is that they are quoting, but they do have a sense of some enormous odds existing with respect to the deaths of a group of Kennedy-assassination-related witnesses.

Illustrative of the widespread concern over this issue is the query President Fidel Castro made during the interview of him by this committee in Cuba on April 3, 1978: “If I may ask you, is there anything true, or how much could be true about those publications which state that many people who could have had a part in Kennedy’s death have died in accidents and things like that?”

On April 27, 1978, the committee obtained a copy of an article printed in the London Sunday Times on February 26, 1967. Mr. Chairman, at this time I ask that the article be admitted into the record as JFK exhibit F-54], and I direct your attention to the enlargement of the article which is on the easel. The chart in the article lists 19 individuals as being the victims of mysterious deaths, including Lee Harvey Oswald and Jack Ruby. It states that the London Sunday Times asked an actuary to compute the life expectancy of 15 of these individuals. It further states that the actuary concluded that on November 22, 1963, the odds against all 15 being dead by February 1967 were about 1 in 10 to the 29th power, or 100,000 trillion to 1.


RC
The calculation has been confirmed assuming 552 Warren Commission witnesses. The CIA said there were 418. The Warren Commission Index has 2479 names, including presidents Washington, Lincoln and hundreds of others with no connection to the case. The actuary understood the problem; it’s what he did for a living. The probability is E-17 or 0.0000000000 0000001.

In the 15 years from 1964-78, 21 Warren Commission witnesses died unnaturally (an additional 10 deaths were suspicious heat attacks, sudden cancers and other illnesses). The probability of 21 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses is 1 in 20 million trillion.

The probabilities are calculated in the JFK Witness spreadsheet database.

Ms. HESS
On April 28, 1978, the committee sent a letter to the London Sunday Times requesting a copy of the actuarial study and of all documents used in the preparation of the study. I would now ask that that letter, JFK exhibit F–542, be admitted into the record.

Chairman STOKES – Without objection JFK exhibits F-541 and F-542 may be entered into the record.

JFK EXHIBIT F–541
Select Committee on Assassinations
U.S. House of Representatives 3331 House Office Building, Annex 2
Washington, D.C. 20515
April 25, 1978
Librarian
London Sunday Times
P. O. Box 7
200 Gray’s Inn Road
London, England WCIX 8E2

Dear Sir:
In connection with its investigation into the circumstances surrounding the death of President Kennedy, the Select Committee on Assassinations of the U.S. House of Representatives requests a copy Of the actuarial study referenced in the attached February 26, 1967 London Sunday Times article and of all documents relating to the preparation of the study.

Thank you for your prompt attention to this request. We appreciate the cooperation of your Washington and New York offices, particularly that of Ms. Katherine Grayson of the Washington Office.

Sincerely,
G. Robert Blakey
Chief Counsel and Director
G RB: jhd
Enclosure
cc: Katherine Grayson
JFK EXHIBIT F-542

Ms. HESS
On May 19, 1978, the committee received a response from the London Sunday Times. I direct your attention again to the easel, to JFK exhibit F-543, an enlargement of that letter. I would now like to read that letter into the record. It is directed to Mr. G. Robert Blakey, chief counsel and director, Select Committee on Assassinations, and it is entitled, Kennedy deaths statistics–

The Sunday Times, February 26, 1967.
The Editor has passed me your letter of 25th April. Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times’ editorial staff after the first edition–the one which goes to the United States and which I believe you have–had gone out, and later editions were amended.

There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: It was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied–correctly–that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter–hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize.

None of the editorial staff involved in this story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material.

Yours sincerely,
Antony Whitaker, Legal Manager.


RC
There is no record of the actuary’s name? It’s “hardly material”?

Ms. HESS
Even though the London Sunday Times had not structured its actuarial inquiry properly and, therefore, the 100,000 trillion to 1 odds were invalid, the committee staff looked into the possibility of conducting a valid study, contracting with our own actuarial firms here in the District of Columbia: Edward H. Friend & Co., Towers Perrin, Forster & Co., and the Wyatt Co.

RC
Invalid? Not true. The actuary’s calculation methodology and his name were never revealed. Ten of the 552 witnesses who testified at the Warren Commission died unnaturally in the three years after the assassination. The probability is 1 in 44 billion. The actuary’s 100,000 trillion to 1 odds were confirmed for 18 material witness deaths over a three year period. Where are the HSCA calculations?

Ms. HESS
We then had meetings with representatives of each company and each subsequently submitted a proposal, addressing both the general issue of which actuarial principles did or did not apply, and the specific issue of the practical problems which would be encountered in attempting to apply those principles to this particular case. As a result of these conversations and of a review of the proposals, we determined the following facts concerning the validity and feasibility of attempting to apply actuarial odds to the group of deaths.

RC
Why didn’t Hess, a statistician, confirm the calculation herself? Perhaps it was because spreadsheets or personal computers did not exist in 1977. But minicomputers were available. The problem is actually quite simple. It requires use of the Poisson distribution formula for calculating the probability of rare events.

Ms. HESS
One, to compute valid actuarial statistics, one must be able to determine to a reasonable degree of specificity, the universe of individuals to which the specific group is being compared. In other words, we would have to determine the total number of individuals who exist in each of the categories into which those individuals who have mysteriously died, fall. This means that we would need to establish the number of individuals who in any manner could be considered witnesses to the assassination of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, the number of individuals who had any contact with Oswald or Ruby or with Ruby’s nightclubs, the number of individuals who professed to have material knowledge of the case or of the major figures in the case, all news reporters who had expressed interest, taken interviews or investigated the case, and all Members of Congress who sought to introduce legislation concerning the investigation of the case. This, as you can imagine, would have been an impossible task.

RC
An impossible task? On the contrary, we have a defined universe of approximately 1100 witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate hearings and the HSCA. At least 67 died (46 unnaturally), most before their scheduled testimony. The probability of 46 unnatural deaths among the witnesses called is 1 in less than 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Ms. HESS
Two, in addition, for each of the individuals identified in the groups I have just listed, we would have to establish age, sex, race, occupation, geographical location, and any other extraordinary factors which have to be taken into consideration in order to compute mortality rates. Again, this was judged to be an impossible job.

RC
An impossible job? The statement is a cop-out. There was a fixed universe of approximately 1100 witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations. The only relevant factor is that at least at least 46 died unnaturally. Just 14 would normally be expected. The Poisson probability calculation is based on two factors: expected and actual deaths.

In the 1964-78 period, the average national homicide rate was 0.000084 (8 per 100,000). The average unweighted unnatural mortality rate was 0.000818 (82 per 100,000). The 0.000247 weighted unnatural mortality rate (based on JFK witness homicides, accidents and suicides) was used to calculate the probability.

Ms. HESS
Three, we would need to determine the number of individuals in these categories who have, in fact, died and the number of individuals who, according to actuarial mortality rates, should have died.

RC
That’s easy. Just count the unnatural deaths in the defined groups as I did and apply the corresponding mortality rates.

Ms. HESS
We had thus established the impossibility of attempting establish through the application of actuarial principles, any meaningful implications about the existence or absence of a conspiracy. Despite the fact that an inference of conspiracy, as here postulated by the critics, did not exist, we nevertheless decided not to dismiss the cited deaths out of hand, but rather, to look more closely at the nature of certain specific deaths to determine whether or not they could individually be considered mysterious or in some other manner a reflection of some sort of conspiracy.

RC
The mathematical odds prove a conspiracy and are independent of witness connections to the case. Only the number and cause of the unnatural deaths are material, since we know the number of witnesses who were called to testify. The Poisson probability function is strictly based on the expected number and actual number of deaths. Why the witnesses died is irrelevant. It is a simple math problem.

Ms. HESS
In an attempt to investigate the circumstances of the deaths individually, we did several things. First, we compiled a more comprehensive list of those individuals whose deaths were considered by the critics to be mysterious. In some cases, it proved difficult to determine which deaths the critics considered mysterious. In many cases, instead of statements of fact, we found unsubstantiated inference and innuendo, with little concrete information provided.

For example, David Goldstein and FNU Levens are both included in Sylvia Meagher’s book, “Accessories After the fact,” as mysterious deaths. Goldstein is described as having helped the FBI trace the revolver used in the murder of Officer Tippit. Levens is described as a Fort Worth burlesque theater operator who employed some of the same entertainers as Jack Ruby. Meagher notes that both of their deaths have been officially ascribed to natural causes and lists the places of death as unknown. No conspiracy theory which would include Goldstein and Levens is put forth; it is unclear why their deaths are to be considered mysterious.

RC
Hess cherry-picked Goldstein and Levens, both questionable. But there were at least 42 unnatural deaths in the three years – and at least 78 officially ruled in the 15 year period from 1964 (Warren Commission) to 1978 (HSCA).

Ms. HESS
And while Ms. Meagher may have had no way of knowing it, the FBI’s file on the Kennedy case includes dozens of reports and letters from citizens offering clues in the identification of the revolver in question, as, of course, there are undoubtedly a number of persons who would have employed some of the same entertainers as Ruby.

Penn Jones in his book, “Forgive My Grief,” volume I, states that Earlene Robert’s, the manager of the rooming house in which Lee Harvey Oswald lived at the time of the assassination, died. He then states that she had important evidence to contribute. The implication is that Mrs. Roberts’ death is mysterious. While it is clear that Mrs. Roberts did indeed have important evidence to contribute, there is no indication in the records relating to her death, or in Mr. Jones’ book, as to what exactly was mysterious about a 61-year-old woman with large calcium deposits and a case of pneumonia, dying of acute heart failure.

The same is the case with other deaths cited in the same book. For example Dr. Nicholas Chetta, the coroner who served at David Ferrie’s death, and Thomas Howard. Jack Ruby’s attorney, both of whom died of heart attacks.

RC
Heart attacks can be induced. Earlene Roberts was warned by the FBI to keep silent. Howard was in Ruby’s apartment on Nov. 24 with two reporters. All died within one year. David Ferrie was named as a witness in 1967. He died from a cerebral hemorrhage (according to Chetta) the day after he was released from protective custody by Garrison. Ferrie’s associate Eladio del Valle was also due to testify. He was murdered within a few hours of Ferrie. Just a coincidence?

Ms. HESS
Despite this problem, we compiled a list of individuals from the books and articles of Meagher, Jones, Bernard Fensterwald, David Martindale, and David Welsh. We added to the list Sam Giancana and John Roselli, both of whom had died too recently to be included in most of the critical literature.

We then asked the Library of Congress to compile all newspaper articles which had appeared concerning any and all of the individuals. We further asked them to give us their evaluation of the critical literature and the press accounts on each individual and to make recommendations with respect to further investigation in each case. Independently, we sent requests to the Bureau of Vital Statistics, the medical examiners’ offices and the police departments in the jurisdiction in which each death was believed to have occurred, for the death certificates, medical records, police reports, and any other documents which might exist concerning the death. Because there were many cases in which there was no information indicating the appropriate jurisdiction, we sent letters to the pertinent offices in Dallas and Fort Worth, Tex., in New Orleans, La., and in Miami, Fla., listing all the names on which we desired information. In the case of some of the individuals, information was requested from Federal investigative agencies. In the cases of Roselli and Giancana, we requested and received a briefing on the Justice Department investigations of those deaths. In the cases in which further investigation was deemed necessary, it was initiated.

Our final conclusion on the issue is that the available evidence does not establish anything about the nature of these deaths which would indicate that the deaths were in same manner, either direct or peripheral, caused by the assassination of President Kennedy or by any aspect of the subsequent investigation.

RC
The HSCA failed to
1) consider that an estimated 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations
2) categorize a list of witnesses based on cause of death
3) consider unnatural mortality rates (homicides, suicides and accidents)
4) calculate the expected number of unnatural deaths over 1, 3 and 15 year periods
5) consider that 7 top FBI officials called to testify at HSCA died within 6 months in 1977

Chairman STOKES – Is your report completed?
Ms. HESS – Yes; it is.
Chairman STOKES – The gentleman from Tennessee, Mr. Ford.
Mr. FORD – I have no questions. I will yield back my time to the Chair.
Chairman STOKES – The gentleman from Indiana.
Mr. FITHIAN – Just one question, Miss Hess, is it your feeling, having gone through this, there is no statistical significance to this? Is that what I am to understand?
Ms. HESS – That is correct.
Mr. FITHIAN – Is it possible, then that any death which is remotely related to this gets reported more than others therefore there is an appearance of a kind of unusual gathering of deaths?
Ms. HESS
It is possible. That is one of the bases for the development of the issue; yes. You understand the problem in establishing the statistical inference is that you cannot establish any type of universe. While it may seem like these people come from a very small group of people, they come from a very, very large universe of people.

RC
But we have several finite witnesses groups: Warren Commission, Garrison/Clay Shaw trial, Church senate – and the HSCA. There were at least 67 deaths among approximately 1100 witnesses in the four investigations.

Mr. FITHIAN – I have no other questions, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman STOKES – The time of the gentleman has expired. The gentleman from Ohio, Mr. Devine.
Mr. DEVINE – No questions, Mr. Chairman.
Chairman STOKES – The gentleman from Pennsylvania, Mr. Edgar.
Mr. EDGAR – Will you provide for the record a detailed listing of the 21 names and the evidence you have found relating to their deaths?
Ms. HESS – Yes. Do you want me to read them for the record?
Mr. EDGAR – It might be helpful.
Ms. HESS
– Edward Benavides, Albert Guy Bogard, Hale Boggs, Lee Bowers, Jr., Bill Chesher, Nicholas J. Chetta, David Goldstein, Thomas Hale Howard, William Hunter, Clyde Johnson, Dorothy Kilgallen, Thomas Henry Killam, Jim Koethe, FNU Levens, Nancy Jane Mooney, Teresa Norton, Earlene Roberts, Harold Russell, Marilyn April Walle, a.k.a. Betty McDonald, William W. Whaley, James R. Worrell, Sam Giancana, John Roselli.

RC
Ah, the (abbreviated) list. But where is Oswald, Tippit, Ruby? They were very significant witnesses –along with at least 80 others. And no mention of the seven top FBI officials who died in a 6 month period just before their scheduled testimony at HSCA. What are the odds of that?

Mr. EDGAR – Thank you. I think it very helpful for the record that those names be included. Can you indicate why Mr. DeMohrenschildt’s name was not included?
Ms. HESS
His was one of those which deemed further investigation and became part of a great investigative effort.

RC
This was hardly a “great investigative effort”. There no mention of De Morenschildt’s ties to Oswald and George Bush or that he supposedly shot himself the day he was to be interviewed by HSCA.

Mr. EDGAR – That was not part of the exact study?
Ms. HESS
It was in terms of the compilation of data. I compiled the data on his death and any police reports, et cetera, as part of this project. But then in terms of subsequent investigation that was done by the investigators.

RC
So where are the investigators? No excuse.

Mr. EDGAR – I think it would be helpful in terms of our final analysis to have a chance to review the material you compiled. I thank you for your report.

RC
It must have been a very cursory review. There was no mention of approximately 20 witnesses sought by HSCA in 1977 but died before they could testify.

Chairman STOKES – The time of the gentleman has expired. Mr. Sawyer.
Mr. SAWYER – No Questions.
Chairman STOKES – There being nothing further, Miss Hess, thank you very much for your testimony. You are excused. The Chair will suspend for just a moment. Because of a heavy schedule tomorrow of witnesses, along with the fact the committee must vacate the room at an early hour for an affair to be held in this room later tomorrow evening, the committee today will adjourn until 8:30 tomorrow morning.

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on July 1, 2013 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Richard Charnin
Feb. 25, 2013
Updated: June 11, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. Burt Lancaster and Robert Ryan, who played CIA operatives involved in the plot, were resisted in their efforts to have the film made by mainstream Hollywood producers. The movie reveals how Kennedy’s progressive agenda and peace initiatives were a threat to the establishment. He refused to invade Cuba, was seeking detente with the Soviet Union, planned to pull all troops out of Viet Nam by 1965, break up the CIA, eliminate the Federal Reserve and promoted the civil rights movement. Congress passed the Test Ban Treaty a few months before the assassination. In other words, he was doing his job.

At the end of the film, it was revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination. as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin.

The London Sunday Times
There has been much controversy about the actuary’s calculation. Apparently, no one at the Sunday Times even recalls the actuary’s name. And even more strange, the Times legal manager did not provide the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) the actuary’s calculation assumptions or methodology. He claimed that the problem was not clearly defined. The HSCA compounded the obfuscation when their statistician claimed that the witness universe was unknowable and therefore the calculation was not valid.

In a response to a letter from the HSCA in 1977, London Sunday Times Legal Manager Anthony Whitaker wrote: Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times editorial staff after the first edition – the one which goes to the United States – had gone out, and later editions were amended.

There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower.

Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material.

The actuary’s identity was hardly material? It was and still is very material. No one on the editorial staff remembered his name? Really? And we are supposed to believe that? Only the actuary could explain his interpretation of the problem and method of calculation. Those statements made no sense; nothing else the Times legal manager said should have been taken at face value.

In fact, Whitaker misrepresented what is essentially a simple mathematical problem: to determine the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths over relevant time interval within a given population group.

His first error was to provide an incomplete and misleading statement of the problem. The U.S. population is not relevant; the number of JFK-related witnesses is. The “short period of time” is not specific. He misrepresented the essential goal of the probability analysis by not considering the frequency of unnatural deaths.

His second error was one of omission. Unnatural death mortality statistics and probability calculations used by the actuary were not provided to the HSCA. Was it because they would show that the calculation was plausible and essentially correct?

Whitaker claimed that he asked the actuary to calculate the probability that 15 names included in the Warren Commission Index would die within a “short” period. One must assume that the actuary assumed unnatural deaths and utilized corresponding unnatural mortality rate(s) in his calculation. Even if the Times editor did not specify unnatural deaths, it does not follow that the actuary was oblivious to the distinction.

In fact, the actuary’s calculation was confirmed assuming 552 witnesses, the number who testified at the Warren Commission. Is it just a coincidence that at least 30 Warren Commission witnesses (listed in the JFK Calc database with links to their testimony) died unnaturally and/or suspiciously or that scores of others died mysteriously at convenient times just before they were due to give testimony at the Garrison/Shaw trial, Church hearings and HSCA?

It is important to re-emphasize that Whitaker said not a word about unnatural deaths. In any case, his response settled the matter. The HSCA’s designated “statistical expert” just added to Whitaker’s obfuscation.

HSCA Obfuscation
In her HSCA testimony, statistical expert Jacqueline Hess dismissed the actuary’s odds as being invalid, claiming that it was “unsolvable”. Hess said she consulted with actuarial experts who told her “you cannot establish any kind of universe” of material witnesses. This was pure disinformation. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm.

The claim that the odds were impossible to calculate was a ruse, just like the Single Bullet Theory (SBT).

The 552 Warren Commission witnesses is a KNOWN UNIVERSE. At least 30 died suspiciously from 1964-78. Fourteen (14) deaths were RULED unnatural: 4 homicides, 6 accidents and 4 suicides. Just one or two would normally have been expected based on UNNATURAL MORTALITY RATES.. The probability of 14 RULED UNNATURAL deaths is 7E-07 (1 in 1.4 MILLION). But the 10 “suicides” and “accidents” were LIKELY homicides. The probability of 14 HOMICIDES is 3.9E-14 (1 in 25 TRILLION).

The 552 Warren Commission witnesses IS a subset of the approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses named in the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data: 552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 20 unnatural deaths, published mortality rates and use of the Poisson probability function. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

Hess conveniently left out scores of mysterious, unnatural deaths in her list of 21 witnesses. She noted five that were questionable. But even the “natural” deaths were suspicious. For example, Jack Ruby died just before his second trial, 29 days after being diagnosed with cancer. He claimed that he was injected with a virus. Thomas Howard, Ruby’s lawyer, died of a heart attack at age 53 in March 1965. There was no autopsy. Howard met with two reporters, Jim Koethe and Bill Hunter, in Ruby’s apartment on Nov. 24, 1963. The reporters were murdered. All three died within 16 months of the meeting.

Hess did not include David Ferrie and Eladio del Valle. David Ferrie supposedly had a brain aneurysm that was ruled a suicide – the day after his release from protective custody. He had just been named as a witness by New Orleans D.A. Garrison in the Clay Shaw trial. Ferrie associate del Valle was also sought by Garrison. He was murdered on Feb. 21, the same day as Ferrie.

Hess neglected every one of the 20 deaths of prospective HSCA witnesses! She gave a convoluted excuse in response to a question as to why she did not include George De Morenschildt, Oswald’s close friend (and intelligence operative) who allegedly shot himself the day he was notified that he was to be interviewed by HSCA. Nor did she mention the seven (7) high level FBI officials who died within a six-month period in 1977 – just before they were due to testify at HSCA. The probability is ZERO. Apparently, HSCA-related deaths were immaterial. But as mentioned above, even her list of 21 witnesses in the 1964-1967 period did not include at least 25 others.

Hess claimed that the actuary concluded that on 11/22/63 the odds of 15 witnesses being dead in three years was 1 in 10 to the 29th power (1 in 10,000 TRILLION TRILLION). That is obviously an incorrect statement. The actuary calculated the odds as 1 in 100,000 trillion (1 in 10 to the 17th power). He presumably used the Poisson probability function of rare events – the perfect mathematical tool for the problem (see below). One in 100,000 trillion is E-17, or 0.0000000000000001. Hess appears to have been anything but a “statistical expert” otherwise she would have done the calculations herself.

In spite of their efforts, the HSCA was forced in a “limited hangout” to conclude that both the JFK and Martin Luther King murders were conspiracies. Acoustic evidence indicated a 96% probability that at least four shots were fired. At least one came from the grassy knoll, indicating at least two shooters. That should have closed the book on the Warren Commission’s physically impossible, irrational Magic Bullet Theory. But the 50-year old myth is still presented as gospel by the mainstream media and overwhelming scientific ballistic, acoustic, video, medical, eyewitness and mathematical evidence of suspicious deaths is ignored.

The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

These tables and graphs prove a conspiracy beyond any doubt: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Bugliosi’s Calculation

Famed prosecutor Vincent Bugliosi tried to refute the actuary in his book Reclaiming History: The Assassination of President John F. Kennedy. He cited Robert M. Musen, vice president and senior actuary at Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. Musen calculated the odds of 15 people out of 2,479 in the Warren Commission Index dying within a three-year period, assuming a median age of 40, to be 98.16%.

But there are two major problems with Musen’s calculation.
1- The index includes names of individuals who had no connection whatsoever to the assassination, such as George Washington and many others. Only 552 witnesses testified in person or by deposition.

2- Musen did not consider unnatural deaths. Even assuming an inflated 2479 witnesses, approximately 7 unnatural deaths would be expected over a three year period.

So how did the actuary calculate the probability? If he/she assumed 459 witnesses, then given 18 deaths (8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides, 3 heart attacks, 2 natural causes) and the 0.000207 total weighted mortality rate, the probability is 9.96E-18 or 1 in 100,000 trillion.

In fact, there were at least 47 suspicious deaths in the three years following the assassination. The actuary did not include Oswald and Ruby – and at least 20 others. The JFK witness spreadsheet database shows that at least 42 of the 47 deaths were unnatural (homicide, accident, suicide, unknown).

Using the .000831 unweighted unnatural death rate, the odds that at least 47 would die unnaturally within 3 years is E-25 or 1 in 10 trillion trillion.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet database consists of 122 material witnesses who died unnaturally or suspiciously from 1964-78. Researchers claim there were many more. Of the 122, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown). The other deaths were a combination of suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers and unknown causes.

But a statistical analysis of expected deaths for various causes indicates there were actually close to 90 homicides (the number of officially ruled deaths by accident, suicide and heart attack far exceeded the expectation).

The probability of 34 OFFICIAL RULED HOMICIDES among 1400 JFK-related individuals from 1964-78 is 1.57E-31 =1 in 6 million trillion trillion using the average 0.000084 homicide rate.

The probability of 78 OFFICIAL RULED UNNATURAL DEATHS is ZERO:
P= E-62= 1/trillion^5 = ZERO using the JFK-weighted average unnatural rate.
P= E-27= 1/trillion^2 = ZERO using the unweighted national average unnatural rate.

Another way of looking at it is to ask how many unnatural deaths were required in the 15 year period (assuming 1400 material witnesses) to obtain a probability of less than 1% (beyond a reasonable doubt). The answer is 30. As the number of deaths increase, the probability rapidly approaches ZERO. But there were over 80.

In 1964-78, there were at least 67 deaths of approximately 1100 material witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, Clay Shaw trial, Church Senate Committee and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Given that 28 deaths were homicides, the probability is 2.3E-26 (1 in 40 TRILLION TRILLION).

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were 25,000 witnesses interviewed without providing a list. How many were material? Only about 1400. But even assuming 25,000, the probability of at least 26 homicides in three years is 1 in 490 BILLION. So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate that claim, they must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000 (0.000062 is used in the homicide probability calculation).

There were different categories of witnesses: 1) 121 eyewitnesses who gave depositions to the FBI (51 said the shots came from the area of the Grassy Knoll, 32 from the Texas Book Depository, 38 were unsure), 2) witnesses called by the 1964 Warren Commission, 3) Jim Garrison/Clay Shaw trial, 4) Senate Intelligence (Church) Committee, 5) House Select Committee (HSCA) and 6) 1400+ JFK-related witnesses.

The timings of the deaths make it all the more suspicious. At least 22 died within one year of the assassination (Warren Commission). At least 16 died in 1977 (including SEVEN FBI officials) just before they were due to testify at HSCA. Using this information, we can calculate probabilities of these unnatural, suspicious deaths for each witness category.

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation Into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination is a comprehensive study of 50 deaths by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (published April 2013).

The mathematical analysis of the scores of suspicious, unnatural deaths related to the assassination is further proof of a conspiracy – beyond any doubt. This is a comprehensive spreadsheet database of suspicious unnatural witness deaths, probability calculations, Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial and HSCA witnesses. A plausible universe of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses is presented in the Who’s Who in the Kennedy Assassination reference.

Mark Lane debunked the Warren Commission in his book and film: Rush to Judgment.

The Poisson Probability Distribution

The expected number N of unnatural deaths in time period T is approximated by a simple formula: N = R * W * T, where R is the unnatural mortality rate, W the number of witnesses and T the number of years in the study.

The Poisson function is useful for calculating the probability that a certain number of rare events will occur over a specified period of time. For instance, the probability that 10 customers will walk into a store from 10-11 am, given an average arrival rate of 5 per hour for that time period. Or that 2 accidents will occur at a busy intersection next month, given an average of 1 per month.

In the JFK analysis, the Poisson function is used to calculate the probability that a number of witnesses would die unnaturally (suicide, murder, accident, unknown cause, etc.) over various time periods. Historical mortality statistical tables show that the average 1964-78 unnatural death rate R is approximately 0.000822.

The Poisson probability function is:
P(n) = a^n * exp(-a)/n!
where a = the expected number of unnatural deaths = R*N*T

Key witness categories
1 Unnatural deaths vs. suspicious natural deaths 1964-78
2 Investigation witnesses sought: Warren, Garrison, Church, HSCA (1100 est)
3 Investigation witnesses who died in 1964-78 (67)
4 Approximate number of JFK-related witnesses (1400+)
5 Eyewitnesses (121)

– The unnatural death rate is used in the analysis.
– ZERO probability of unnatural deaths in all categories.
– 51 Warren Commission eyewitnesses claimed that the shots came from the Grassy Knoll, 32 from the Texas Schoolbook Depository and 38 had no opinion: http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/12th_Issue/51_wits.html
Their recollections were dismissed by the Warren Commission as simply being “mistaken”. Parkland Hospital doctors initially reported entrance wounds to the neck and head which were confirmed years later in the Zapruder film.

Ruby’s Visitors

Ruby shot Oswald on Nov. 24, 1963. But how many know that three people who met in Ruby’s apartment that day died within one year, two unnaturally and one naturally.
– Bill Hunter, a reporter, shot by a policeman in April 1964 – ruled an accident.
– Tim Koethe, another reporter, was killed in Sept. 1964 by a blow to the neck.
– Tom Howard, Ruby’s first lawyer, died from a heart attack in March 1965.
The probability of the three deaths in one year: 1 in 300 million!

7 Mysterious FBI Witness Deaths

In 1977, seven top FBI officials died in a six month period just before they were scheduled to testify at the House Select Committee on Assassinations(HSCA).
. William Sullivan- Head of counter/espionage. Predicted death. Hunting accident.
. James Cadigan- Document expert; previously testified to WC. Accidental fall.
. Regis Kennedy- Heart attack the day he was to testify.
. Louis Nichols- Former #3, worked on JFK investigation. Heart attack
. Alan Belmont- Liaison to Warren Commission; Long illness.
. Donald Kaylor Fingerprint expert. Heart attack.
. J.M. English- Head of Forensic Sciences Lab. Heart attack.

Suspicious Timing of Other Witness Deaths

Jack Ruby died in Jan, 1967, just 28 days after being diagnosed with cancer in prison. He claimed that he was injected with cancer cells. In this press conference, Ruby claimed a government conspiracy to murder JFK.
Ruby: “Everything pertaining to what’s happening has never come to the surface. The world will never know the true facts, of what occurred, my motives. The people had- that had so much to gain and had such an ulterior motive for putting me in the position I’m in, will never let the true facts come above board to the world.”
Reporter: “Are these people in very high positions Jack?”
Ruby: “Yes.”

In Feb. 1967, David Ferrie was found dead in his apartment shortly after he was named as a defendant by New Orleans D.A. Jim Garrison in the Clay Shaw trial. Ferrie was an associate of Oswald, Shaw, Guy Banister and anti-Castro Cubans. Ferrie left two suicide notes. He was held in protective custody until Feb. 21, 1967 and was found dead in his apartment the next day.

Ferrie associate Eladio del Valle was also sought by Garrison. He was murdered on Feb. 21 by gunshot and struck in the head by an axe.

Guy Banister, an ex-FBI agent with ties to Ferrie and Oswald, died in 1964, supposedly from a heart attack.

Maurice Gatlin was also sought by Garrison. He was a pilot who worked for Guy Banister, an ex-FBI agent in New Orleans connected to Ferrie, CIA, Carlos Marcello and Oswald. Gatlin died in a fall from the 6th floor after suffering a “heart attack”. The death was ruled an accident.

Clay Shaw denied he was CIA and was acquitted. He died a few years later from sudden cancer. There was no autopsy. CIA Director Richard Helms later admitted under oath that Shaw was a CIA contractor.

The following individuals were sought by the HSCA. All died unnaturally. Once again, the probability is ZERO…
– Charles Nicoletti, mob hit man and possible JFK shooter, was found dead from gunshots the day before he was scheduled to be contacted.
– John Paisley, Deputy Director of the CIA, was “about to blow the whistle” (shotgun ruled suicide).
– George DeMohrenschildt, a friend of Oswald with CIA contacts, had previously testified at the Warren Commission. He was found dead the day before he was scheduled to be contacted (shotgun ruled a suicide).
– Johnny Roselli, a powerful Mafia figure, was found in a drum off the coast of Miami. He told investigative reporter Jack Anderson that Ruby was ordered to silence Oswald and testified before the Senate.

Data Sources
The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson, presents vital information on each of more than 1,400 individuals (from suspects to witnesses to investigators) related in any way to the murder of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. Based on years of research, it uses a wealth of data sources and a detailed analysis of the Warren Commission’s twenty-six volumes. The volume includes entries on virtually all suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators involved in the assassination. Ninety-five of the 1400 witnesses in Who’s Who are included in the JFKCalc  spreadsheet/database. But witnesses not included in Who’s Who are also very relevant.

In Crossfire assassination researcher Jim Marrs lists 103 individuals related to the assassination who died mysteriously from 1963-1978. Lee Harvey Oswald is not on the list but should be.

Warren Commission apologists who troll the online forums jump through illogical hoops in their attempts to debunk the probability calculations. But their arguments just prove the case for conspiracy. They agree that the math is correct, but argue that the data is invalid. They claim that the 1400+ witnesses and scores of unlikely deaths were self-selected and not a random group. Of course it is not a random group – by definition. That is precisely the point.

Witnesses who were called to testify before the 1964 Warren Commission, the 1969 Clay Shaw trial and the 1977 HSCA investigation were obviously not self-selected. Neither were the 1400 in the “Who’s Who” reference; they were all related in some way to the JFK assassination – suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators. It is not just a coincidence that an impossible number of them died unnaturally. There are only a few dozen that were missed in the “Who’s Who”, but even some of these died unnaturally. The only rational conclusion is that the JFK-related witnesses had information that would lead to the perpetrators.

There were at least 122 suspicious deaths among an estimated 1400 JFK material witnesses. At least 78 were ruled unnatural: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown. Given the 1964-1978 national average unnatural mortality rate, 17 unnatural deaths would be expected. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is ZERO But how many “accidents”, “suicides” and suspicious “natural” deaths were actually homicides? The probabilities would be lower still.

It is important to note that the 1964-78 average homicide rate (1 in 12,000) was much lower than accidental deaths (1 in 1,600) and suicides (1 in 7,700). An analysis comparing unnatural JFK witness deaths to the expected number is not nearly as dramatic as comparing homicides. Nationally, homicides comprised 10% of unnatural deaths. But there were 34 ruled homicides among the 78 unnatural deaths (44%). If the analysis was restricted to homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and more powerful.

Unnatural Official Deaths; National Average Rates (1964-78)
Homicide (34): 0.000084 (1 in 12,000)
Accident (24): 0.000594 (1 in 1,600)
Suicide (16): 0.000130 (1 in 7,700)
Unknown (4): 0.000014 (1 in 100,000)

Natural Death Rates
Heart Disease (25): 0.004913 (1 in 200)
Cancer: (6) 0.001991 (1 in 500)
Other: (13) 0.004461 (1 in 1000)
Total (44): 0.010197 (1 in 100)

 
7 Comments

Posted by on February 25, 2013 in JFK

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 
Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis