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Probability Analysis: DNC, Wikileaks, Clinton Foundation suspicious deaths

Richard Charnin
Updated: 11/9/19

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

There were at least 21 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related deaths in 28 months from April 2016 to Aug 2018.  Of the 21 deaths, 17 were reported unnatural (one accident, 5 suicides, 11 homicides) and 4 were from natural causes (2 heart attack, 2 cancer). This update calculates the probabilities based on 1) the weighted average mortality rate of  the 17 unnatural deaths and 2) the assumption that the 17 were all homicides.

Based on circumstantial evidence, it is highly likely that many of the  accidents, suicides and  natural deaths were actually homicides. The 4 reported natural deaths were not included in the calculations.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. Given unnatural death rate  R, the probability P of at least n deaths among a group of N individuals in T years is  P  = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true) where E=N*R*T.

This spreadsheet calculates the probability for any combination of N, n, R and T. Age-adjusted death rates were based on U.S. mortality/deaths by major causes

Assuming N=10,000  DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related individuals, the probability of at least 17 homicides (R=0.00006) is 1 in 4.3 trillion (2.3E-13).                               
The probability of  1 accident, 5 suicides and 11 homicides (given the weighted unnatural rate R=0.00015) is 1 in 5.8 million. 

Sensitivity Matrix: Probabilities of n=8 to 17 homicides for N= 10,000-50,000 

n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
8 1.1E-04 8.1E-03 6.4E-02 2.0E-01 4.0E-01
11 2.8E-07 1.6E-04 4.1E-03 2.8E-02 9.9E-02
14 3.5E-10 1.6E-06 1.3E-04 2.0E-03 1.3E-02
17 2.3E-13 8.1E-09 2.2E-06 7.8E-05 9.6E-04
1 in 4.3 trillion 124 million 464,000 12,700 1,044

 

Suspicious deaths
5 Wikileaks: Jones, Ratner,  McFayden, Smith, Dolan
7 Clinton Foundation: Flynn, Petersen, Eberwein, Lorich, Sherman (2), Cincinelli
4 DNC: Seth Rich, Montano, Lucas, Whisenant
6 Other: Ashe, Thorn, Rago, Smolek, Mostyn, Moore

2016 (10)
4/18  John JonesAssange lawyer, run over by train. Suicide?
5/11: Michael Ratner, Wikileaks NY lawyer, cancer.
6/22  John Ashe, former UN official.  Initially reported as a heart attack,  the official story changed to his accidentally dropping a barbell on his throat. Ashe was about to begin trial for a bribery charge involving Chinese businessman Ng Lap Seng, who had been implicated in the 1996 “China-gate” scandal  Ashe was supposed to testify about Clinton’s links to Ng Lap Seng. Accident?
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, writing for  Breitbart News, died of a heart attack within hours after reporting on the Clinton Foundation China connection.

7/10  Seth Rich, DNC e-mail leaker to Wikileaks, shot twice in back, died in hospital.

7/25: Joe Montano, 47, Chairman of DNC,  heart attack,  right after the WikiLeaks email dump proving the DNC sabotaged Bernie Sanders and handed the nomination to Hillary Clinton. No history of heart problems.
8/01 Victor Thorn,  author of books on Clintons, gunshots. Suicide?
8/02  Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs. Suicide?
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov:  Monica Petersen, investigating CF child trafficking, found dead in Haiti. Suicide?

2017 (9)
May: Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach. Suicide?
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity. Suicide?
Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead. Suicide?
Kurt Smolek, ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Suicide?
Nov: Steve Mostyn, 46, Texas-based trial lawyer,  member of George Soros-founded Democracy Alliance, major Democratic benefactor, died suddenly. Suicide?
Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Suicide?
Barry and Honey Sherman. Originally declared a murder-suicide, investigators concluded it was a murder staged to look like a murder-suicide involving multiple perpetrators. Barry Sherman founded Apotex pharmaceutical company which supplied generic drugs to the Clinton foundation in Haiti and Rwanda. The Clinton Foundation was scandalized when it was discovered that AIDS drugs sent to the third world were watered-down.

2018
Jan: James Dolan, 36, Wikileaks developer. Suicide ?
Aug: Jen Moore, journalist of Clinton sex crimes, found dead in a DC hotel. Suicide?

2019
July: Salvatore Cincinelli, Supervisory FBI special agent who spearheaded many of the FBI’s high-profile and complex Wall Street investigations, including probing the finances of the Clinton Foundation. Reportedly shot and killed himself on a crowded night-club dance floor, according to top FBI insiders. Suicide?

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

 New Developments in the Seth Rich case             

Written By: Tracy Beanz

An amended complaint in a civil suit brings to light new information in the controversial death of DNC staffer Seth Rich

A newly filed amended complaint in a lawsuit brought against a litany of defendants, including Turner Broadcasting, Anderson Cooper and the NY Times, alleges that Ellen Ratner, a Fox News analyst and White House Correspondent for Talk Media News, met with Julian Assange in the Fall of 2016 and received information from Assange that Seth Rich and his brother Aaron were responsible for releasing the controversial DNC emails to Wikileaks for publication.

The lawsuit seeks damages for several claims, including defamation, business disparagement, malicious prosecution, and civil rights violations.

The amended complaint contains specific details of Butowsky’s interactions with Ratner. The complaint states the following: (RCH is abbreviated to mean “Russian Collusion Hoax”)

Mr. Butowsky stumbled into the RCH crosshairs after Ellen Ratner, a news analyst for Fox News and the White House correspondent for Talk Media News, contacted him in the Fall of 2016 about a meeting she had with Mr. Assange. Ms. Ratner’s brother, the late Michael Ratner, was an attorney who had represented Mr. Assange. According to Ms. Ratner, she made a stop in London during a return flight from Berlin, and she met with Mr. Assange for approximately six hours in the Ecuadorean embassy. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange told her that Seth Rich and his brother, Aaron, were responsible for releasing the DNC emails to Wikileaks. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange wanted the information relayed to Seth’s parents, as it might explain the motive for Seth’s murder. Upon her return to the United States, Ms. Ratner asked Mr. Butowsky to contact the Rich family and relay the information from Mr. Assange, apparently because Ms. Ratner did not want her involvement to be made public. In the two months that followed, Mr. Butowsky did not attempt to contact the Rich family, but he grew increasingly frustrated as the DNC and #Resistance “journalists” blamed the Russian government for the email leak. 

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/03/insider-ed-butowsky-seth-richs-father-told-knew-sons/

Subpoenas issued for FBI, Crowdstrike and DNC : http://lawflog.com/?p=2177&fbclid=IwAR3AL2hiqAmRTo9B6oSCpeaBvCcuvI4NGTUcRrHGG5kwDOpCDqDx3jVKOsI

NSA FOIA Response reveals Seth Rich & Assange/Wikileaks communications are Classified

………………………………………………………………….

JFK WITNESS DEATHS

In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47

<https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/02/25/executive-action-jfk-witness-deaths-and-the-london-times-actuary/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=3

Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

 
27 Comments

Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized

 

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JFK Assassination: Exposing Another Admitted Lone Nutter

JFK Assassination: Exposing Another Admitted Lone Nutter

Richard Charnin
March 25, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Motivation
Readers may wonder why I keep posting about my run-ins with Lone Nutters (LN) online. There are two basic reasons. Each post is unique in 1) rebutting WC defender disinformation and 2) providing instructive information for rational viewers. And I will continue to expose Lone Nutters as I see fit.

Once again, an internet troll and self-proclaimed LN has attempted to discredit JFK Witness death analysis. But as always his ignorance is exposed by his total lack of understanding of statistical methodology. He does not know the difference between Inferential Statistics (as used in political polling to infer the intentions of voters) and Descriptive Statistics, in which factual JFK-related witness death mortality data is used to calculate the various probabilities of unnatural deaths.

The following is just another example of how an unqualified disinformationist attempts to discredit scientific, fact-based analysis which proves a JFK Conspiracy.

KG
Mr. Charnin, regardless of what year you are using for national mortality rates this is a moot point because you analysis is fundamentally flawed. You can’t take a small group of 1400 people and compare this to a national average. It’s called random sampling error. This is a basic entry level statistics principle.

RC
KG, just love to keep promoting your ignorance, don’t you? A poll? You do not know the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics, even after I explained it to you. You are stuck in your agenda to disinform. But all you are doing is showing how ignorant you are.

The JFK witness analysis is NOT based on a poll. The 1400 JFK-related witnesses WERE NOT ASKED IF THEY DIED UNNATURALLY. How ridiculous can you get? This just shows why Lone Nutters are incapable of rudimentary statistical analysis.

One more time for emphasis: The 1400 JFK-related individuals were NOT polled. They were not a random sample. They were material witnesses. They were NOT asked to offer an OPINION. They were NOT asked if they DIED UNNATURALLY.

Are you still going to insist they were polled? Do you see how ridiculous that statement is? Or are you so ignorant that you cannot even see it? You apparently never took Basic Statistics 101. If you did, you failed.

The witness mortality data represents the official reported cause of death among JFK-related witnesses over a given time interval. It is NOT based on statistical inference. It is based on statistical FACTS. Apparently, you do not know the difference.

1400 JFK-related witnesses
See “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. Among the 1400, approximately 80 died unnaturally in the period from 1964-78. That’s the officially ruled cause of death; the actual true total of unnatural deaths was close to 100 (the vast majority being homicides). In 1964, at least 21 in the group of 1400 died unnaturally. The probability is CALCULATED BASED ON FACTUAL DATA. Now YOU do the math. Apply the 1964 unnatural mortality rates. I already did. But I am sure that you don’t even know where to start.

KG, you are out of your league. You are a typical Warren Report apologist posing as one knowledgeable in mathematical statistics. But you have no expertise whatsoever. If you ever took a course in Probability and Statistics 101, you had better review your notes. If you never took the course, then you have no basis for pretending that you know what you are talking about. You are here to obfuscate facts which contradict your agenda of fooling people into believing the Warren Report. Sorry, KG, no magic bullet for you.

KG
Dear Richard, you are obviously very delusional. Quite simply you cannot compare mortality rates of a group of 1400 to national rates. These are completely different universes of comparisons that make it impossible to infer any meaningful inference between the two. Even common sense would dictate 77 out of 1400 dying unnaturally… between a period of over 14 years?! Come on Richard. That means absolutely nothing at all. Yes I’m a Lone Nutter but that doesn’t mean anything because the fact is this statistical analysis is innately faulty in the composition of populational data of comparison. Basic statistics Richard. And yes technically it is a poll, it is a random sample of extremely dispersed individuals with the only common thread being a vague association with the jfk assassination. The statistical inference of this population is impossible, as concluded by the HSCA in their investigation of the supposed mysterious deaths. It’s a dead end Richard, this was realized over 30 years ago. Time to let it go.

RC
You actually said “Even common sense would dictate 77 out of 1400 dying unnaturally… between a period of over 14 years!”. Another absolutely idiotic statement. You have no common sense, otherwise you would never have made that statement; it just further exposes your ignorance. This is not about what you believe to be “common sense”; it is about the application of historic mortality rates. Only 17 unnatural deaths would be statistically expected – not 77- in a random group of 1400 based on the average 0.000822 unnatural mortality rate in a 14 year period.

You have no shame, do you? I expose your deficiencies over and over again and you say it’s “time to let it go”? What you are really saying is: “Please go away, Richard, because you are beating the hell out of us each time we try to discredit you with our BS.”

KG, you are pulling out classic troll talking points which have all been refuted. I will have to refute them again. Right here. Right now.

Vague witness associations?
There are 126 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc database. You claim they all have vague associations with the JFK Assassination? Tell us which ones are vague. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=1

Do you mean witnesses such as Oswald, Tippit, Ruby, Sherman, Meyer, Cheramie, Ferry, Craig, Kilgallen, Bowers, Pitzer, RFK, DeMorenschildt, Roselli, Wallace, Carter, White, Stockdale, Underhill, Banister, Lovelady? Were they vaguely related to the assassination?

Do you mean the 7 FBI officials called to testify at HSCA who all died in a six month period in 1977 and never got to testify? Were they vaguely related?

Do you mean the 67 witnesses among the 126 who were called to testify and died unnaturally or suspiciously? Were they vaguely related?

If you had checked my probability analysis, you would know that I use JFK-weighted rates as well as national rates.

Dallas witness mortality
About 51 of the 126 JFK-witness deaths were in Dallas. In 1967, the Dallas population was 700,000 and there were 130 murders, a 0.000190 homicide rate. The Dallas rate was triple the national rate, so I tripled the average national homicide rate from 0.000084 to 0.000253.

The probability P of 34 official homicides from 1964-78 among 1400 material witnesses using the adjusted Dallas rate is P = 7.60e-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion. That is very close to the London Times actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion odds of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination.

Now, KG, here is a simple question for you. Was it just a coincidence that at least 51 of the 126 suspicious deaths occurred in the Dallas area? Or was there an obvious connection among them? It’s got to be one or the other. Which is it, math wiz? Connection or no connection?

Now go to row 99 in the JFK Calc probability sheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=0

KG, your complete ignorance has just been laid bare for all to see. But that won’t stop you. You will be back for more – and you will look even more foolish then you do now. Perhaps, eventually, you will get the message. But I doubt it. Lone nutters never get it.

 
1 Comment

Posted by on March 16, 2014 in JFK

 

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