Tag Archives: mortality rates

Seth Rich/JFK Mortality Probability Calculator

Richard Charnin
Updated: 7/15/17

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume a random group of 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
-There were 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
The probability of at least 5 homicides in 3 months is 1 in 6.5 million.
– There were 12 suspicious deaths (8 homicides) in 15 months since April 2016.
The probability of at least 8 homicides in 15 months is 1 in 3.4 million.

4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, ex-UN official, barbell fell on neck. He was going to testify on DNC and Clinton.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

What is the probability that in a random group of N DNC/Wikileaks related individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years given group mortality rate R? Three (R, n, T) of the 4 parameters are known constants. The only unknown is N, the number of individuals in the study.
The expected number of unnatural deaths: E = N*R*T

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

There were 7 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in 3 months:
n = 7
R = 0.0002 (DC homicide rate; 135 homicides/681170 pop.)
T = 3 months (0.25 Year).
N = relevant DNC/Wikileaks population.
E = N*R*T =N*0.0002*0.25 (expected number of homicides).

Assume N = 1,000 DNC/Wikileaks related  persons, then for
n=3 homicides: P= 1 in 52 thousand
n=4 homicides: P= 1 in 4.2 million
n=5 homicides: P= 1 in 422 million
n=6 homicides: P= 1 in 51 billion
n=7 homicides: P= 1 in 7.2 trillion

Assume: n=7, T= 0.25 (3 months), R=0.0002 and
N= 500, P = 1 in 902.1 trillion
N= 1,000, P = 1 in 7.2 trillion
N= 3,000, P = 1 in 3.6 billion
N= 10,000, P = 1 in 1.1 million

Since N is unknown, let’s view a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS table over a range of N for n=5,6,7,8,9:

Probability of n homicides in a random group of
n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
5 0.02% 0.31% 1.41% 3.61%
6 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 1.20%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.34%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%

The analysis assumes the 7 DNC/Wikileaksdeaths were all homicides. If they were a combination of  homicides,  accidents,  suicides and heart attacks, we need to use a weighted mortality rate. This is conservative since “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides. The heart attack was also highly suspicious.

………………..National Weighted for T=.25 (3 months)
COD………. n Rate……… Rate
Accident.. 2 0.00038 0.00076
Suicide…. 1 0.00012 0.00012
Homicide. 3 0.00005 0.00015
Natural?.. 1 0.00173 0.00173 heart attack/cancer
Total…….7 0.00228 0.00039

For n=7, N= 1000, R = 0.00039, T = 0.25 (3 months)
Probability: P = 1 in 60 billion.

For n=5 homicides, N=1000, T= 0.27 (14 weeks), R = 0.00005
P = 1 in 275 billion

For n =7 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks), N=1000, T= 0.25, R = 0.00052
P = 1 in 8 billion.

For n=9 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks and 2 cancers):
R=0.0008, N=1000, T=0.5 (6 months)
P = 1 in 2.5 billion.

There were n=6 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in T=5 weeks (0.10 years). Mortality rate R=0.0002. Assuming a random group of N individuals, the probability that it was just a coincidence is
N Probability
500  1 in 900 trillion
1000 1 in 14 trillion
3000 1 in 20 billion
30000 1 in 32000

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

Probability of 0-7 homicides in a random group of 40,000 over 3 months

No automatic alt text available.

No automatic alt text available.

In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths: 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability: 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 44 homicides, Probability = 4.7 E-60


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


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JFK Assassination: Exposing Another Admitted Lone Nutter

JFK Assassination: Exposing Another Admitted Lone Nutter

Richard Charnin
March 25, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

Readers may wonder why I keep posting about my run-ins with Lone Nutters (LN) online. There are two basic reasons. Each post is unique in 1) rebutting WC defender disinformation and 2) providing instructive information for rational viewers. And I will continue to expose Lone Nutters as I see fit.

Once again, an internet troll and self-proclaimed LN has attempted to discredit JFK Witness death analysis. But as always his ignorance is exposed by his total lack of understanding of statistical methodology. He does not know the difference between Inferential Statistics (as used in political polling to infer the intentions of voters) and Descriptive Statistics, in which factual JFK-related witness death mortality data is used to calculate the various probabilities of unnatural deaths.

The following is just another example of how an unqualified disinformationist attempts to discredit scientific, fact-based analysis which proves a JFK Conspiracy.

Mr. Charnin, regardless of what year you are using for national mortality rates this is a moot point because you analysis is fundamentally flawed. You can’t take a small group of 1400 people and compare this to a national average. It’s called random sampling error. This is a basic entry level statistics principle.

KG, just love to keep promoting your ignorance, don’t you? A poll? You do not know the difference between descriptive and inferential statistics, even after I explained it to you. You are stuck in your agenda to disinform. But all you are doing is showing how ignorant you are.

The JFK witness analysis is NOT based on a poll. The 1400 JFK-related witnesses WERE NOT ASKED IF THEY DIED UNNATURALLY. How ridiculous can you get? This just shows why Lone Nutters are incapable of rudimentary statistical analysis.

One more time for emphasis: The 1400 JFK-related individuals were NOT polled. They were not a random sample. They were material witnesses. They were NOT asked to offer an OPINION. They were NOT asked if they DIED UNNATURALLY.

Are you still going to insist they were polled? Do you see how ridiculous that statement is? Or are you so ignorant that you cannot even see it? You apparently never took Basic Statistics 101. If you did, you failed.

The witness mortality data represents the official reported cause of death among JFK-related witnesses over a given time interval. It is NOT based on statistical inference. It is based on statistical FACTS. Apparently, you do not know the difference.

1400 JFK-related witnesses
See “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. Among the 1400, approximately 80 died unnaturally in the period from 1964-78. That’s the officially ruled cause of death; the actual true total of unnatural deaths was close to 100 (the vast majority being homicides). In 1964, at least 21 in the group of 1400 died unnaturally. The probability is CALCULATED BASED ON FACTUAL DATA. Now YOU do the math. Apply the 1964 unnatural mortality rates. I already did. But I am sure that you don’t even know where to start.

KG, you are out of your league. You are a typical Warren Report apologist posing as one knowledgeable in mathematical statistics. But you have no expertise whatsoever. If you ever took a course in Probability and Statistics 101, you had better review your notes. If you never took the course, then you have no basis for pretending that you know what you are talking about. You are here to obfuscate facts which contradict your agenda of fooling people into believing the Warren Report. Sorry, KG, no magic bullet for you.

Dear Richard, you are obviously very delusional. Quite simply you cannot compare mortality rates of a group of 1400 to national rates. These are completely different universes of comparisons that make it impossible to infer any meaningful inference between the two. Even common sense would dictate 77 out of 1400 dying unnaturally… between a period of over 14 years?! Come on Richard. That means absolutely nothing at all. Yes I’m a Lone Nutter but that doesn’t mean anything because the fact is this statistical analysis is innately faulty in the composition of populational data of comparison. Basic statistics Richard. And yes technically it is a poll, it is a random sample of extremely dispersed individuals with the only common thread being a vague association with the jfk assassination. The statistical inference of this population is impossible, as concluded by the HSCA in their investigation of the supposed mysterious deaths. It’s a dead end Richard, this was realized over 30 years ago. Time to let it go.

You actually said “Even common sense would dictate 77 out of 1400 dying unnaturally… between a period of over 14 years!”. Another absolutely idiotic statement. You have no common sense, otherwise you would never have made that statement; it just further exposes your ignorance. This is not about what you believe to be “common sense”; it is about the application of historic mortality rates. Only 17 unnatural deaths would be statistically expected – not 77- in a random group of 1400 based on the average 0.000822 unnatural mortality rate in a 14 year period.

You have no shame, do you? I expose your deficiencies over and over again and you say it’s “time to let it go”? What you are really saying is: “Please go away, Richard, because you are beating the hell out of us each time we try to discredit you with our BS.”

KG, you are pulling out classic troll talking points which have all been refuted. I will have to refute them again. Right here. Right now.

Vague witness associations?
There are 126 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc database. You claim they all have vague associations with the JFK Assassination? Tell us which ones are vague.

Do you mean witnesses such as Oswald, Tippit, Ruby, Sherman, Meyer, Cheramie, Ferry, Craig, Kilgallen, Bowers, Pitzer, RFK, DeMorenschildt, Roselli, Wallace, Carter, White, Stockdale, Underhill, Banister, Lovelady? Were they vaguely related to the assassination?

Do you mean the 7 FBI officials called to testify at HSCA who all died in a six month period in 1977 and never got to testify? Were they vaguely related?

Do you mean the 67 witnesses among the 126 who were called to testify and died unnaturally or suspiciously? Were they vaguely related?

If you had checked my probability analysis, you would know that I use JFK-weighted rates as well as national rates.

Dallas witness mortality
About 51 of the 126 JFK-witness deaths were in Dallas. In 1967, the Dallas population was 700,000 and there were 130 murders, a 0.000190 homicide rate. The Dallas rate was triple the national rate, so I tripled the average national homicide rate from 0.000084 to 0.000253.

The probability P of 34 official homicides from 1964-78 among 1400 material witnesses using the adjusted Dallas rate is P = 7.60e-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion. That is very close to the London Times actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion odds of 18 material witness deaths in the three years following the assassination.

Now, KG, here is a simple question for you. Was it just a coincidence that at least 51 of the 126 suspicious deaths occurred in the Dallas area? Or was there an obvious connection among them? It’s got to be one or the other. Which is it, math wiz? Connection or no connection?

Now go to row 99 in the JFK Calc probability sheet.

KG, your complete ignorance has just been laid bare for all to see. But that won’t stop you. You will be back for more – and you will look even more foolish then you do now. Perhaps, eventually, you will get the message. But I doubt it. Lone nutters never get it.

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Posted by on March 16, 2014 in JFK


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