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2016 Census Race Demographic & National Exit Poll indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.27, 2019

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

This analysis of the 2016 National Exit Poll Race cross tab and corresponding Vote Census indicates that Clinton did not win the true popular vote.

She won the recorded vote, which is never the same as the true vote. The recorded vote is often fraudulent. The National Exit Poll (NEP) is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires adjusting the category percentage mix and corresponding vote shares. 

Recorded vote:  Clinton  48.25%- Trump 46.17%;  Margin 2.83 mil; Trump has 57% of whites. The NEP indicates Whites were 71% of the electorate.

The Census indicates Whites were 73.3% of the electorate (0.4% MoE). Making just this change to the NEP and keeping vote shares constant, Trump wins by 703,000.

Sensitivity Analysis (assume Whites 73.3% of the electorate)
1. Trump 57% of whites+21% other (black, hispanic, asian, other)
Trump 47.39%- Clinton 46.88%;   Margin 703,000

2. Trump 58% of whites+21% other 
Trump 48.12%-Clinton 46.14%; Margin 2.700 million

3. Trump 59% of whites+22% other 
Trump 49.12%-Clinton 45.14%; Margin 5.425 million

National Exit
Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37.0% 57.0% 6.0%
Non-white 29.0% 74.0% 21.0% 5.0% Clinton Margin
Calc 100.0% 47.73% 46.56% 5.71% 1.17%
136,216 65,016 63,422 7,778 1,594
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833

……

Census
National Exit Poll
Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.31% 37.0% 57.0% 6.0%
Non-white 26.69% 74.0% 21.0% 5.0% Trump Margin
Calc 100.00% 46.88% 47.39% 5.73% 0.52%
136,216 63,852 64,555 7,809 703
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833

Sensitivity Analysis

Trump % White
Trump % 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0%
Non-white Trump
24.0% 48.19% 48.93% 49.66% 50.39% 51.12%
23.0% 47.93% 48.66% 49.39% 50.12% 50.86%
22.0% 47.66% 48.39% 49.12% 49.86% 50.59%
21.0% 47.39% 48.12% 48.86% 49.59% 50.32%
20.0% 47.12% 47.86% 48.59% 49.32% 50.06%
Clinton
24.0% 46.07% 45.34% 44.61% 43.88% 43.14%
23.0% 46.34% 45.61% 44.88% 44.14% 43.41%
22.0% 46.61% 45.88% 45.14% 44.41% 43.68%
21.0% 46.88% 46.14% 45.41% 44.68% 43.94%
20.0% 47.14% 46.41% 45.68% 44.94% 44.21%
Trump margin
24.0% 2,885 4,882 6,879 8,876 10,873
23.0% 2,158 4,155 6,152 8,149 10,146
22.0% 1,430 3,428 5,425 7,422 9,419
21.0% 703 2,700 4,698 6,695 8,692
20.0% -24 1,973 3,971 5,968 7,965
Census NEP
Census 2016 Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 100,849 73.31% 37% 57% 6%
Black 17,119 12.44% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 12,682 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 5,049 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1,843 1.34% 56% 36% 8%
Calc 137,567 100.0% 47.42% 46.84% 5.73%
65,234 64,431 7,877
Margin 803
National Exit Poll
NEP Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12.0% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 11.0% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4.0% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2.0% 56% 36% 8% Clinton Margin
Calc 100.00% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76% 1.62%
136,216 65,288 63,082 7,846 2,207
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1447777586
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1088655249
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

Other adjustments: True Vote Sensitivity
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit?fbclid=IwAR3x0INVIU5VkxsAhSG4IU3JonEc0DOThwK2iwBIoQVx92ld6feg4DM1SfA#gid=1672204415

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Posted by on January 27, 2019 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump Approval

Richard Charnin
Updated: Aug.31, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

According to Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump has a 48% total approval rating. Among black voters, he has 34% approval.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.

The  Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.  

Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate.
Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval
.48= .88*X+.12*34
X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88
X= 0.50 non-black approval

Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split.
Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03

The Harris-Harvard Poll shows that Trump has 45% total approval.
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/news/caps-harris-poll-foreign-policy-and-supreme-court

WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo:
Trump approval: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%

WaPo
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 25 78
Indep 37 35
Dem.. 33 6
Total 95 34.4
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 78
Indep 43 35
Dem.. 27 6
Total 98 38.5

Sensitivity- Adjust Republican and Independent Trump approval
Gallup

……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 90
Indep 43 43
Dem 27 6
Total 98 45.3

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/08/31/National-Politics/Polling/question_20686.xml?uuid=UnUesq0MEeiafc0wUE_5Ag
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).

Trump Approval
 Non-Black
0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500
Black
Total 
0.40 0.435 0.453 0.470 0.488
0.38 0.433 0.450 0.468 0.486
0.36 0.430 0.448 0.466 0.483
0.34 0.428 0.446 0.463 0.481
0.03 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.444

How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?

Assume
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.

Trump wins by 9 million votes.

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total 100% 47.9% 46.3% 5.8%

Census/NEP adjusted to 36% black approval
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%  
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Votes 138.2 60.4 69.4 8.4
Share 100% 43.7% 50.2% 6.1%

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1200a1TrumpandtheMuellerInvestigation.pdf https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2016
2016 Presidential Election Model

 
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Posted by on August 16, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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2016 National Exit Poll vs. True Vote Model: How did you vote in the 2012 election?

Richard Charnin
July 9, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2008 presidential election was the last one in which the National (NEP) and state exit polls asked “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. A plausible reason is that the question provided clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Bush voters than were still alive in order to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Conversely, the True Vote Model, which used a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.

Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.

General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality

2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Equal 96% turnout of living 2012 Obama and Romney voters.
Clinton wins 87% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins 7% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%.
Clinton wins by 2.9 million recorded votes, 48.3-46.2%.

2016 True Vote Model assumptions
Voter turnout: 92% of living Obama voters and 96% of Romney voters
Clinton wins 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters
Trump wins 10% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters
New voters: Trump and Clinton 45% tie
Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

2016 TVM rationale
– 96% Romney voter turnout vs. 92% for Obama: approximately 2.5 million living Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who did not vote.
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Obama voters: approximately 2.6 million Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who defected to Jill Stein, Trump and Johnson.

NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this…
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4%

Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6

TRUE VOTE
2012….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 42.7% 82% 10% 8%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV…… 14.5% 45% 45% 10%

Total…. 100% 45.1% 47.8% 7.1%
Vote…. 136.2 61.5 65.1 9.7

Sensitivity analysis
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his  shares of returning Obama (8-12%) and Romney voters (86-90%). He wins 24 of the 25 scenarios. In the worst case scenario, Trump loses by 1 million votes (46.9-46.1%). In the best case, he wins by 8 million (49.5-43.5%). Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.

View the spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

 
 

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Trump approval rating: MSM still oversampling Democrats

Richard Charnin
Updated: April 2, 2018

Latest updated Trump approval index http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Just like in the pre-election and exit polls, the mainstream media’s approval rating inflated the Democratic share of the electorate.

Jan. 20, 2017:  The Washington Post poll indicates 40% Trump approval based on an
8-point Democratic advantage in Party ID: 31D, 23R, 46I. But the Gallup party affiliation survey has a 3-point Republican advantage: 25D, 28R,44I.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

The Rasmussen daily tracking poll as of Jan.20 has 56% Trump approval. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_jan20

The National Exit Poll is always adjusted to match the recorded vote.
The 2016 poll indicated Party-ID was 36D, 33R, 31I.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president
The Nov.6 Gallup survey had Party-ID at 31D, 27R, 36I.

From Zero Hedge:
In the month leading up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through ‘Oversamples'” and “ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary’s “Lead” Shrinks To 2-Points”). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.

But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump’s favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious “oversamples” we’ve seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-17/new-abc-wapo-poll-shows-drop-trump-favorabilty-through-aggressive-oversamples

https://libertywritersnews.com/2017/01/urgent-media-caught-lying-trumps-pre-inauguration-approval-ratings-real-numbers/

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/pre-election-and-national-exit-poll-categories-vs-the-true-vote/

Party-ID

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average 
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 39% 88.4% 6.00% 3.0%
Rep 32% 5.00% 87.8% 4.0%
Ind. 29% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 47.4% 46.0% 6.2%
Votes 136.2 64.6 62.7 8.5
Margin -2.0

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match the recorded vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89.0% 8.00% 3.0%
Rep 33% 8.00% 88.0% 4.0%
Ind. 31% 42.0% 46.0% 12.0%
… 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes 136.2 65.0 62.9 8.3
Margin -2.1

2016 Nine Pre-election poll average (Gallup Party-ID)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.4% 6.00% 3.00%
Rep 28% 5.00% 87.8% 4.00%
Ind. 40% 33.8% 43.6% 13.0%
… 100% 45.1% 47.5% 7.3%
Votes 136.2 61.4 64.7 9.9
Margin 3.2

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match the estimated True Vote)
……. Pct Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 88.0% 9.00% 3.0%
Rep 28% 7.00% 89.0% 4.0%
Ind. 40% 38.0% 51.0% 11.0%
… 100% 45.3% 48.2% 6.5%
Votes 136.2 61.7 65.7 8.8
Margin 3.9

Trump Trump %Independent
%Rep 49.0% 51.0% 53.0%
91%. 47.96% 48.76% 49.56%
89%. 47.40% 48.20% 49.0%
87%. 46.84% 47.64% 48.44%

 
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Posted by on January 19, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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ADJUSTED POLLS: VOTERS DECIDING BEFORE AND AFTER OCT.1

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 27, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The National Exit Poll is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted National Exit Poll by 48.3-46.2%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided who to vote for after Oct. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton.
Clinton won voters who decided prior to Oct.1 by  51-45%. If  Trump actually won these voters by 47-46%, then he won the True Vote by 47.3-44.4%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 40% of voters decided who to vote for after Sept. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 42% for Clinton.

Since  exit polls are always adjusted to match the fraudulent recorded vote, assuming the shares of voters who decided after Oct.1 are essentially correct, then the shares of those who decided prior to Oct.1 must have been inflated for Clinton. 

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT. 1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Decided  Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Oct 1 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Pre-Oct 1 74.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
Match RV 100.0% 48.1% 45.8% 6.1% -2.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.0%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE

Decided  Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Oct 1 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
Pre-Oct 1 74.0% 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% 1.0%
Match TV 100.0% 44.4% 47.3% 8.3% 2.8%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 46.2% 5.6% -2.0%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE

Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Sep 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
Pre Sep 1 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5% -7.5%
Match  100.0% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.1%
Recorded 48.3% 46.2% 5.5% -2.1%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE

Decided Voted Clinton Trump Other Margin
Post Sep 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
Pre Sep 1 60% 47.0% 48.0% 5.0% 1.0%
Match True 100.0% 45.0% 48.0% 7.0% 3.0%
TRUE   45.0% 48.0% 7.0% 3.0%

According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls after Oct. 1 by 45.4-40.7%. The National Exit Poll indicates that Trump led voters who decided after Oct.1 by 48-40%, a 12.7% margin difference between RCP and the NEP

Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls before Oct. 1 by 42.4-39.2%. The NEP indicates Clinton won voters who decided before Oct.1 by 51-45%, a 2.8% difference in margin between the RCP and NEP. How does one explain the large difference in margin between post-Oct.1 pre-election and exit polls compared to the pre-Oct. polls?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036252757

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/pubchart?oid=729649900&format=image

Note the change in Trump’s margin after Oct. 1  in IL (57%), NY (51%),  CA (29%), OR (32%), WI (31%), MN (28%), NC (28%).

When Decided 

Post Oct.1   Pre- Oct.1   Chg
    HRC DJT Marg HRC DJT Marg Marg
    38.1% 50.5% 12.4% 49.4% 37.0% -12.4% 24.7%
    40.6% 49.5% 8.9% 52.3% 44.1% -8.2% 17.1%
Post Oct.1
IL 30% 32% 55% 23% 66% 32% -34% 57%
NY 26% 38% 53% 15% 67% 31% -36% 51%
OR 20% 32% 48% 16% 54% 38% -16% 32%
WI 14% 30% 59% 29% 49% 47% -2% 31%
CA 29% 51% 42% -9% 67% 29% -38% 29%
MN 29% 33% 51% 18% 51% 41% -10% 28%
NC 25% 33% 57% 24% 51% 47% -4% 28%
ME 31% 35% 51% 16% 51% 43% -8% 24%
CO 22% 37% 48% 11% 52% 42% -10% 21%
IA 26% 35% 53% 18% 47% 47% 0% 18%
MI 26% 37% 52% 15% 50% 47% -3% 18%
NM 28% 37% 41% 4% 52% 40% -12% 16%
NH 29% 42% 50% 8% 51% 45% -6% 14%
OH 25% 37% 54% 17% 47% 50% 3% 14%
VA 23% 42% 48% 6% 52% 44% -8% 14%
WA 22% 46% 41% -5% 57% 38% -19% 14%
AZ 25% 40% 48% 8% 48% 48% 0% 8%
FL 26% 43% 50% 7% 49% 49% 0% 7%
UT 44% 17% 39% 22% 36% 52% 16% 6%
NJ 25% 50% 41% -9% 55% 43% -12% 3%
PA 24% 43% 49% 6% 47% 51% 4% 2%
GA 20% 47% 55% 8% 45% 53% 8% 0%
NV 11% 45% 40% -5% 49% 44% -5% 0%
KY 28% 27% 63% 36% 31% 67% 36% 0%
SC 26% 39% 50% 11% 42% 56% 14% -3%
MO 29% 36% 52% 16% 38% 59% 21% -5%
TX 24% 46% 47% 1% 44% 51% 7% -6%
IN 29% 34% 53% 19% 35% 61% 26% -7%
When decided
NATIONAL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
before 74.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
calc 100.0% 48.1% 45.8% 6.1% -2.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 46.2% 5.6% -2.0%
WA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 22.0% 46.0% 41.0% 13.0% -5.0%
before 78.0% 57.0% 38.0% 5.0% -19.0%
calc 100.0% 54.6% 38.7% 6.8% -15.9%
Reported 100.0% 54.7% 38.4% 6.9% -16.4%
IL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 31.0% 33.0% 55.0% 12.0% 22.0%
before 69.0% 66.0% 32.0% 2.0% -34.0%
calc 100.0% 55.8% 39.1% 5.1% -16.6%
Reported 100.0% 55.8% 38.8% 5.4% -17.1%
CA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 51.0% 42.0% 7.0% -9.0%
before 71.0% 67.0% 29.0% 4.0% -38.0%
calc 100.0% 62.4% 32.8% 4.9% -29.6%
Reported 100.0% 61.7% 31.6% 6.7% -30.1%
NY Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 26.0% 38.4% 53.0% 8.6% 14.6%
before 74.0% 67.0% 31.0% 2.0% -36.0%
calc 100.0% 59.6% 36.7% 3.7% -22.9%
Reported 100.0% 59.6% 36.7% 3.7% -22.8%
OR Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 20.0% 32.0% 48.0% 20.0% 16.0%
before 80.0% 54.0% 38.0% 8.0% -16.0%
calc 100.0% 49.6% 40.0% 10.4% -9.6%
Reported 100.0% 50.1% 39.1% 10.8% -11.0%
OH Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 37.0% 54.0% 9.0% 17.0%
before 75.0% 47.0% 50.0% 3.0% 3.0%
calc 100.0% 44.5% 51.0% 4.5% 6.5%
Reported 100.0% 43.6% 51.7% 4.8% 8.1%
NC Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 25.0% 33.0% 57.0% 10.0% 24.0%
before 75.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% -4.0%
calc 100.0% 46.5% 49.5% 4.0% 3.0%
Reported 100.0% 46.2% 49.8% 4.0% 3.7%
NJ Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 50.0% 41.0% 9.0% -9.0%
before 75.0% 55.0% 43.0% 2.0% -12.0%
calc 100.0% 53.8% 42.5% 3.7% -11.3%
Reported 100.0% 55.0% 41.0% 4.0% -14.0%
PA Clinton Trump Other/Undec Margin
month 24.0% 43.0% 49.0% 8.0% 6.0%
before 76.0% 47.0% 51.0% 2.0% 4.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 50.5% 3.4% 4.5%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 48.6% 3.6% 0.7%
MI Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 37.0% 52.0% 11.0% 15.0%
before 74.0% 50.0% 47.0% 3.0% -3.0%
calc 100.0% 46.6% 48.3% 5.1% 1.7%
Reported 100.0% 47.3% 47.5% 5.2% 0.2%
MO Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 36.0% 52.0% 12.0% 16.0%
before 71.0% 38.0% 59.0% 3.0% 21.0%
calc 100.0% 37.4% 57.0% 5.6% 19.6%
Reported 100.0% 38.1% 56.8% 5.1% 18.6%
IA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 35.0% 53.0% 12.0% 18.0%
before 74.0% 47.0% 47.0% 6.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 43.9% 48.6% 7.6% 4.7%
Reported 100.0% 41.7% 51.1% 7.1% 9.4%
FL Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 43.0% 50.0% 7.0% 7.0%
before 74.0% 49.0% 49.0% 2.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 47.4% 49.3% 3.3% 1.8%
Reported 100.0% 47.8% 49.0% 3.2% 1.2%
WI Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 14.0% 30.0% 59.0% 11.0% 29.0%
before 86.0% 49.0% 47.0% 4.0% -2.0%
calc 100.0% 46.3% 48.7% 5.0% 2.3%
Reported 100.0% 46.5% 47.2% 6.3% 0.8%
VA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 23.0% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0% 6.0%
before 77.0% 52.0% 44.0% 4.0% -8.0%
calc 100.0% 49.7% 44.9% 5.4% -4.8%
Reported 100.0% 49.8% 44.4% 5.8% -5.3%
NV Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 11.0% 45.0% 40.0% 15.0% -5.0%
before 89.0% 49.0% 44.0% 7.0% -5.0%
calc 100.0% 48.6% 43.6% 7.9% -5.0%
Reported 100.0% 47.9% 45.5% 6.6% -2.4%
NH Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 42.0% 50.0% 8.0% 8.0%
before 71.0% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0% -6.0%
calc 100.0% 48.4% 46.5% 5.2% -1.9%
Reported 100.0% 47.0% 46.6% 6.4% -0.4%
MN Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 33.0% 51.0% 16.0% 18.0%
before 71.0% 51.0% 41.0% 8.0% -10.0%
calc 100.0% 45.8% 43.9% 10.3% -1.9%
Reported 100.0% 46.4% 44.9% 8.6% -1.5%
ME Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 31.0% 35.0% 51.0% 14.0% 16.0%
before 69.0% 51.0% 43.0% 6.0% -8.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 45.5% 8.5% -0.6%
Reported 100.0% 47.8% 44.9% 7.3% -3.0%
CO Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 22.0% 37.0% 48.0% 15.0% 11.0%
before 78.0% 52.0% 42.0% 6.0% -10.0%
calc 100.0% 48.7% 43.3% 8.0% -5.4%
Reported 100.0% 48.2% 43.3% 8.6% -4.9%
TX Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 24.0% 46.0% 47.0% 7.0% 1.0%
before 76.0% 44.0% 51.0% 5.0% 7.0%
calc 100.0% 44.5% 50.0% 5.5% 5.6%
Reported 100.0% 43.2% 52.2% 4.5% 9.0%
GA Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 20.0% 47.0% 55.0% -2.0% 8.0%
before 80.0% 45.0% 53.0% 2.0% 8.0%
calc 100.0% 45.4% 53.4% 1.2% 8.0%
Reported 100.0% 45.6% 50.8% 3.6% 5.1%
UT Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 44.0% 17.0% 39.0% 44.0% 22.0%
before 56.0% 36.0% 52.0% 12.0% 16.0%
calc 100.0% 27.6% 46.3% 26.1% 18.6%
Reported 100.0% 27.5% 45.5% 27.0% 18.1%
SC Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 26.0% 39.0% 50.0% 11.0% 11.0%
before 74.0% 42.0% 56.0% 2.0% 14.0%
calc 100.0% 41.2% 54.4% 4.3% 13.2%
Reported 100.0% 40.7% 54.9% 4.4% 14.3%
KY Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 28.0% 27.0% 63.0% 10.0% 36.0%
before 72.0% 31.0% 67.0% 2.0% 36.0%
calc 100.0% 29.9% 65.9% 4.2% 36.0%
Reported 100.0% 32.7% 62.5% 4.8% 29.8%
NM Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 28.0% 37.0% 41.0% 22.0% 4.0%
before 72.0% 52.0% 40.0% 8.0% -12.0%
calc 100.0% 47.8% 40.3% 11.9% -7.5%
Reported 100.0% 48.3% 40.0% 11.7% -8.2%
IN Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 29.0% 34.0% 53.0% 13.0% 19.0%
before 71.0% 35.0% 61.0% 4.0% 26.0%
calc 100.0% 34.7% 58.7% 6.6% 24.0%
Reported 100.0% 37.9% 56.8% 5.3% 18.9%
AZ Clinton Trump Other Margin
month 25.0% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0% 8.0%
before 75.0% 48.0% 48.0% 4.0% 0.0%
calc 100.0% 46.0% 48.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Reported 100.0% 45.1% 48.7% 6.2% 3.5%
 
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Posted by on January 8, 2017 in Uncategorized

 

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2016 Election Scenario Analysis

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

This is an analysis of four election scenarios. 

1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares
2. Gallup Party-ID and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares
3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares
4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares

It is a FACT: the Reported vote is NEVER equal to the True Vote. The pundits always brainwash the public into assuming that the Reported vote represents True voter intent. 

The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote  (view Scenario 3).
NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I.
Clinton leads Trump by 2.03 million votes: 47.7-46.2%.
Others (including Johnson and Stein) have just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.

The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R.
Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%.  How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Jill Stein? Surely more than 1%. Probably close to 5%.

It is clear that the third party vote is a key factor. Jill Stein had an implausibly low 1% share. Where did her votes go?  Compare Trump’s 2.18 million True Vote margin in Scenario 1, in which third parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. The differential  indicates that Stein did better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.

Exit poll discrepancies: http://tdmsresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-Presidential-Election-Table_Nov-17.-2016.jpg

 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis: Calculate Trump’s vote margins over a range of his shares of Republicans and Independents.

 1. Gallup/TVM  Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 28% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 40% 34% 44% 22%
TVM Total 100% 44.0% 45.7% 10.3%
Votes (mil) 133.26 58.69 60.87 13.70
2. Gallup/NEP   Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 32% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 28% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 40% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.5% 45.6% 6.9%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.33 60.77 9.17
3. NEP/NEP Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 8% 3%
Rep 33% 8% 88% 4%
Ind 31% 42% 46% 12%
Total 100% 47.7% 46.2% 6.1%
Votes (mil) 133.26 63.57 61.54 8.16
4. NEP/TVM Party-ID Clinton Trump Other
Dem 36% 89% 9% 2%
Rep 33% 7% 90% 3%
Ind 31% 34% 44% 22%
Total 100% 44.9% 46.6% 8.5%
Votes (mil) 133.26 59.82 62.07 11.37

True Vote Model Sensitivity Analysis

Scenario 1 Trump % Rep
Trump 85.0% 87.0% 89.0% 91.0% 93.0%
% Ind Trump
48% 46.2% 46.7% 47.3% 47.8% 48.4%
44% 44.6% 45.1% 45.7% 46.2% 46.8%
40% 43.0% 43.5% 44.1% 44.6% 45.2%
Clinton
48% 43.6% 43.0% 42.4% 41.9% 41.3%
44% 45.2% 44.6% 44.0% 43.5% 42.9%
40% 46.8% 46.2% 45.6% 45.1% 44.5%
 Share Margin
48% 2.6% 3.7% 4.8% 6.0% 7.1%
44% -0.6% 0.5% 1.6% 2.8% 3.9%
40% -3.8% -2.7% -1.6% -0.4% 0.7%
 Vote (000)  Margin 
48% 3.5 5.0 6.4 7.9 9.4
44% -0.8 0.7 2.2 3.7 5.2
40% -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 -0.6 0.9

Summary Comparison (based on Party-ID)

Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 48.4% 45.8% 46.1% 49.6% 44.6% 48.4%
Diff   -2.6%   3.5%   3.9%
OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 43.9% 51.4%
NC* 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 45.9% 46.6%
NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 44.6% 46.4%
PA* 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8%
MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8%
MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 41.5% 51.7%
IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 41.1% 50.6%
FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.9% 47.7%
WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 48.2% 45.2%
Share of  Indep-endents       
Unadjusted Exit Poll   Reported Vote   True Vote  
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Avg 47.3% 40.3% 39.2% 53.1% 36.1% 50.2%
Diff   -7.0%   13.9%   14.1%
OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0%
NC 44.0% 44.0% 38.5% 56.0% 35.0% 49.0%
NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0%
PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0%
MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 45.0% 56.3%
MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 39.0% 45.0%
IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 51.0%
FL 48.0% 43.0% 48.0% 50.5% 32.0% 53.0%
WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%
 
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Posted by on November 23, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

2004 Presidential Election Fraud: Overwhelming Statistical Proof that it was Stolen

Richard Charnin
Oct.30, 2015


LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible. It was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters.  The NEP indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1x2WCPJautd_eZPIfkmW9W9vD2p1Zu0ZlvgqV_gUwLNM/edit#gid=13https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=7

2004 Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded vote)

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20.79 17.0% 54.0% 44.0% 2.00% - -
Gore 45.25 37.0% 90.0% 10.0% 0,00% 48.45 93%
Bush 52.59 43.0% 9.00% 91.0% 0.00% 47.93 110%
Other 3.67 3.00% 64.0% 14.0% 22.0% 3.798 97%
Total 122.3 100% 48.3% 50.7% 1.00% 100.19 94%
Votes (millions) 59.03 62.04 1.22

Note that Gore won by 544,000 recorded votes (48.4-47.9%). But he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, a 2 million vote margin. He won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%,  a 6 million vote margin!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&usp=sheets_web#gid=4

The following analysis is additional confirmation that the election was stolen.

In the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Kerry and 47.0% for Bush). Kerry led throughout the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.

But the NEP was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%. The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.

There is a conflict between the unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the  ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).

Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:

Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

Of the 13,660 (1% MoE), 3182 (2% MoE) were asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.

Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).

But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Assuming returning 2000 voters were proportional to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Kerry had 53.0%
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6%
(True Vote: plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71

Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
Kerry had 1815 (50.2%), Bush 1614 (44.6%), Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)

2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
But the National Election Pool funds the exit pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Bush voters, is a powerful confirmation that the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.

The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Exit Poll at 12:22am. Note that returning Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential vote category. Since Kerry won at least 64% of returning Nader voters, not including them in the crosstab reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?

11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%

Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn)
Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%

2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV… 23.12 18.4% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore.. 48.25 38.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush.. 49.67 39.5% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other.. 4.70 3.70% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total…100.0%…. 51.7% 46.8% 1.46%
Votes…125.7….. 65.07 58.83 1.838

Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate, 76000 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.6%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=7

Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents
The 2000 Presidential Vote category is missing the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. The exit pollsters also avoided the simple math calculation for total vote shares. This table includes returning Nader voters and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3%
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
Total.. 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%

 

Election Fraud Polling Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide

Introduction: To Believe Bush Won…

  1.  When Decided
  2.  Bush Approval Ratings
  3.  The Final 5 Million Recorded Votes
  4.  The Final Exit Poll: Forced to Match the Vote
  5.  Within Precinct Discrepancy
  6.  New Voters
  7.  Party ID
  8.  Gender
  9.  Implausible Gore Voter Defection
  10. Voter Turnout
  11. Urban Legend
  12. Location Size
  13. Sensitivity Analysis
  14. Did Kerry Win 360 EV?
  15. Election Simulation Analysis
  16. Exit Poll Response Optimization
  17. Florida
  18. Ohio
  19. New York

 Appendix

  1. Election Model: Nov.1 Projection
  2. Interactive Monte Carlo Simulation: Pre-election and Exit Polls
  3. 1988-2004 Election Calculator: The True Vote
  4. The 2000-2004 County Vote Database
  5. Statistics and Probability: Mathematics of Polling

         

 
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Posted by on October 30, 2015 in 2004 Election

 

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis