Richard Charnin
Jan.27, 2019
This analysis of the 2016 National Exit Poll Race cross tab and corresponding Vote Census indicates that Clinton did not win the true popular vote.
She won the recorded vote, which is never the same as the true vote. The recorded vote is often fraudulent. The National Exit Poll (NEP) is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires adjusting the category percentage mix and corresponding vote shares.
Recorded vote: Clinton 48.25%- Trump 46.17%; Margin 2.83 mil; Trump has 57% of whites. The NEP indicates Whites were 71% of the electorate.
The Census indicates Whites were 73.3% of the electorate (0.4% MoE). Making just this change to the NEP and keeping vote shares constant, Trump wins by 703,000.
Sensitivity Analysis (assume Whites 73.3% of the electorate)
1. Trump 57% of whites+21% other (black, hispanic, asian, other)
Trump 47.39%- Clinton 46.88%; Margin 703,000
2. Trump 58% of whites+21% other
Trump 48.12%-Clinton 46.14%; Margin 2.700 million
3. Trump 59% of whites+22% other
Trump 49.12%-Clinton 45.14%; Margin 5.425 million
National Exit
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|||||
Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | ||
White | 71.0% | 37.0% | 57.0% | 6.0% | |
Non-white | 29.0% | 74.0% | 21.0% | 5.0% | Clinton Margin |
Calc | 100.0% | 47.73% | 46.56% | 5.71% | 1.17% |
136,216 | 65,016 | 63,422 | 7,778 | 1,594 | |
Recorded | 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.70% | 2.08% | |
136,216 | 65,724 | 62,891 | 7,764 | 2,833 |
……
Census |
National Exit Poll
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||||
Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | ||
White | 73.31% | 37.0% | 57.0% | 6.0% | |
Non-white | 26.69% | 74.0% | 21.0% | 5.0% | Trump Margin |
Calc | 100.00% | 46.88% | 47.39% | 5.73% | 0.52% |
136,216 | 63,852 | 64,555 | 7,809 | 703 | |
Recorded | 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.70% | 2.08% | |
136,216 | 65,724 | 62,891 | 7,764 | 2,833 |
Sensitivity Analysis
Trump % | White | ||||
Trump % | 57.0% | 58.0% | 59.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% |
Non-white | Trump | ||||
24.0% | 48.19% | 48.93% | 49.66% | 50.39% | 51.12% |
23.0% | 47.93% | 48.66% | 49.39% | 50.12% | 50.86% |
22.0% | 47.66% | 48.39% | 49.12% | 49.86% | 50.59% |
21.0% | 47.39% | 48.12% | 48.86% | 49.59% | 50.32% |
20.0% | 47.12% | 47.86% | 48.59% | 49.32% | 50.06% |
Clinton | |||||
24.0% | 46.07% | 45.34% | 44.61% | 43.88% | 43.14% |
23.0% | 46.34% | 45.61% | 44.88% | 44.14% | 43.41% |
22.0% | 46.61% | 45.88% | 45.14% | 44.41% | 43.68% |
21.0% | 46.88% | 46.14% | 45.41% | 44.68% | 43.94% |
20.0% | 47.14% | 46.41% | 45.68% | 44.94% | 44.21% |
Trump margin
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|||||
24.0% | 2,885 | 4,882 | 6,879 | 8,876 | 10,873 |
23.0% | 2,158 | 4,155 | 6,152 | 8,149 | 10,146 |
22.0% | 1,430 | 3,428 | 5,425 | 7,422 | 9,419 |
21.0% | 703 | 2,700 | 4,698 | 6,695 | 8,692 |
20.0% | -24 | 1,973 | 3,971 | 5,968 | 7,965 |
Census | NEP | ||||
Census | 2016 | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other |
White | 100,849 | 73.31% | 37% | 57% | 6% |
Black | 17,119 | 12.44% | 89% | 8% | 3% |
Latino | 12,682 | 9.22% | 66% | 28% | 6% |
Asian | 5,049 | 3.67% | 65% | 27% | 8% |
Other | 1,843 | 1.34% | 56% | 36% | 8% |
Calc | 137,567 | 100.0% | 47.42% | 46.84% | 5.73% |
65,234 | 64,431 | 7,877 | |||
Margin | 803 |
National Exit Poll
|
|||||
NEP | Pct | Clinton | Trump | Other | |
White | 71.0% | 37% | 57% | 6% | |
Black | 12.0% | 89% | 8% | 3% | |
Latino | 11.0% | 66% | 28% | 6% | |
Asian | 4.0% | 65% | 27% | 8% | |
Other | 2.0% | 56% | 36% | 8% | Clinton Margin |
Calc | 100.00% | 47.93% | 46.31% | 5.76% | 1.62% |
136,216 | 65,288 | 63,082 | 7,846 | 2,207 | |
Recorded | 48.25% | 46.17% | 5.70% | 2.08% | |
136,216 | 65,724 | 62,891 | 7,764 | 2,833 |
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1447777586
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1088655249
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
Other adjustments: True Vote Sensitivity
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit?fbclid=IwAR3x0INVIU5VkxsAhSG4IU3JonEc0DOThwK2iwBIoQVx92ld6feg4DM1SfA#gid=1672204415