This analysis of the 2016 National Exit Poll Race cross tab and corresponding Vote Census indicates that Clinton did not win the true popular vote.
She won the recorded vote, which is never the same as the true vote. The recorded vote is often fraudulent. The National Exit Poll (NEP) is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires adjusting the category percentage mix and corresponding vote shares.
Recorded vote: Clinton 48.25%- Trump 46.17%; Margin 2.83 mil; Trump has 57% of whites. The NEP indicates Whites were 71% of the electorate.
The Census indicates Whites were 73.3% of the electorate (0.4% MoE). Making just this change to the NEP and keeping vote shares constant, Trump wins by 703,000.
Sensitivity Analysis (assume Whites 73.3% of the electorate) 1. Trump 57% of whites+21% other (black, hispanic, asian, other) Trump 47.39%- Clinton 46.88%; Margin 703,000
2. Trump 58% of whites+21% other Trump 48.12%-Clinton 46.14%; Margin 2.700 million
3. Trump 59% of whites+22% other Trump 49.12%-Clinton 45.14%; Margin 5.425 million
The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.
The Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.
Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate. Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval .48= .88*X+.12*34 X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88 X= 0.50 non-black approval
Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split. Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03
WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo: Trump approval: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%
According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).
How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.
Trump wins by 9 million votes.
National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6% Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8% Total 100% 47.9% 46.3% 5.8%
Census/NEP adjusted to 36% black approval
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5% Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8% Votes 138.2 60.4 69.4 8.4
Share 100% 43.7% 50.2% 6.1%
The 2008 presidential election was the last one in which the National (NEP) and state exit polls asked “How Did You Vote in the Last Election?”. A plausible reason is that the question provided clear proof of fraud in all elections from 1988-2008. The How Voted crosstab matrix required more returning Bush voters than were still alive in order to match the bogus recorded vote in 1992 (119% turnout), 2004 (110%) and 2008 (103%). Conversely, the True Vote Model, which used a feasible estimate of returning voters, confirmed the unadjusted, pristine state and national exit polls.
Since the “How Voted” question was not asked, we can derive a crosstab to match the 2016 recorded vote using assumptions for 2012 returning voter turnout and 2016 vote shares.
General Assumption: 1% Annual voter mortality
2016 Estimated National Exit Poll assumptions
Equal 96% turnout of living 2012 Obama and Romney voters.
Clinton wins 87% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins 7% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters.
Trump wins new voters by 48-47%. Clinton wins by 2.9 million recorded votes, 48.3-46.2%.
2016 True Vote Model assumptions
Voter turnout: 92% of living Obama voters and 96% of Romney voters
Clinton wins 82% of returning Obama and 7% of returning Romney voters
Trump wins 10% of returning Obama and 88% of returning Romney voters
New voters: Trump and Clinton 45% tie Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.
2016 TVM rationale
– 96% Romney voter turnout vs. 92% for Obama: approximately 2.5 million living Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who did not vote.
– Clinton’s 82% share of returning Obama voters: approximately 2.6 million Obama voters were angry Sanders voters who defected to Jill Stein, Trump and Johnson.
NATIONAL EXIT POLL – is always forced to match the recorded vote
“HOW VOTED IN 2012” was not asked in the 2016 NEP.
It would have looked something like this…
2016….. Mix Clinton Trump Other
Obama…. 44.6% 87% 7% 6%
Romney… 41.2% 7% 88% 5%
Other…… 1.5% 45% 45% 10%
DNV….. 12.6% 47% 48% 5.4%
Total…. 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%
Vote…. 136.2 65.7 62.9 7.6
The tables display Trump’s total vote share and margin over a range of 25 scenarios of his shares of returning Obama (8-12%) and Romney voters (86-90%). He wins 24 of the 25 scenarios. In the worst case scenario, Trump loses by 1 million votes (46.9-46.1%). In the best case, he wins by 8 million (49.5-43.5%). Trump wins the base case scenario by 3.6 million votes, 47.8-45.1%.
Just like in the pre-election and exit polls, the mainstream media’s approval rating inflated the Democratic share of the electorate.
Jan. 20, 2017: The Washington Post poll indicates 40% Trump approval based on an
8-point Democratic advantage in Party ID: 31D, 23R, 46I. But the Gallup party affiliation survey has a 3-point Republican advantage: 25D, 28R,44I. http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
From Zero Hedge: In the month leading up to the election on November 8th, we repeatedly demonstrated how the mainstream media polls from the likes of ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Reuters repeatedly manipulated their poll samples to engineer their desired results, namely a large Hillary Clinton lead (see “New Podesta Email Exposes Playbook For Rigging Polls Through ‘Oversamples'” and “ABC/Wapo Effectively Admit To Poll Tampering As Hillary’s “Lead” Shrinks To 2-Points”). In fact, just 16 days prior to the election an ABC/Wapo poll showed a 12-point lead for Hillary, a result that obviously turned out to be embarrassingly wrong for the pollsters.
But, proving they still got it, ABC/Washington Post and CNN are out with a pair of polls on Trump’s favorability this morning that sport some of the most egregious “oversamples” we’ve seen. The ABC/Wapo poll showed an 8-point sampling margin for Democrats with only 23% of the results taken from Republicans…
The National Exit Poll is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. Clinton led the adjusted National Exit Poll by 48.3-46.2%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided who to vote for after Oct. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton.
Clinton won voters who decided prior to Oct.1 by 51-45%. If Trump actually won these voters by 47-46%, then he won the True Vote by 47.3-44.4%.
The 2016 NEP indicates that 40% of voters decided who to vote for after Sept. 1. Of these late deciders, 48% said they voted for Trump and 42% for Clinton.
Since exit polls are always adjusted to match the fraudulent recorded vote, assuming the shares of voters who decided after Oct.1 are essentially correct, then the shares of those who decided prior to Oct.1 must have been inflated for Clinton.
NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT. 1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE
Post Oct 1
NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE OCT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE
Post Oct 1
NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH RECORDED VOTE
Post Sep 1
Pre Sep 1
NATIONAL EXIT POLL ADJUSTED PRE SEPT.1 TO MATCH TRUE VOTE
Post Sep 1
Pre Sep 1
According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls after Oct. 1 by 45.4-40.7%. The National Exit Poll indicates that Trump led voters who decided after Oct.1 by 48-40%, a 12.7% margin difference between RCP and the NEP
Clinton led the RCP average of pre-election polls before Oct. 1 by 42.4-39.2%. The NEP indicates Clinton won voters who decided before Oct.1 by 51-45%, a 2.8% difference in margin between the RCP and NEP. How does one explain the large difference in margin between post-Oct.1 pre-election and exit polls compared to the pre-Oct. polls?
1. Gallup Party-ID and True Vote Model (TVM) vote shares 2. Gallup Party-ID and National Exit Poll (NEP) vote shares 3. NEP Party-ID and NEP vote shares 4. NEP Party-ID and TVM vote shares
It is a FACT: the Reported vote is NEVER equal to the True Vote. The pundits always brainwash the public into assuming that the Reported vote represents True voter intent.
The National Exit Poll is always forced to match the Reported vote (view Scenario 3). NEP Party-ID is 36D-33R-31I. Clinton leads Trump by 2.03 million votes: 47.7-46.2%. Others (including Johnson and Stein) have just 6.1% combined. Stein has 1%.
The True Vote Model (Scenario 1) uses Gallup Party-ID: 40I-32D-28R. Trump leads Clinton by 2.18 million votes: 45.7-44.0%. How many of the Other 10.3% voted for Jill Stein? Surely more than 1%. Probably close to 5%.
It is clear that the third party vote is a key factor. Jill Stein had an implausibly low 1% share. Where did her votes go? Compare Trump’s 2.18 million True Vote margin in Scenario 1, in which third parties had 10.3%, to his negative margins in scenarios 2 and 3 where third parties had 6-7%. The differential indicates that Stein did better than 1%. Her votes were stolen.
The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible. It was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. The NEP indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters – an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters in 2004. Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000, so there could not have been 52.6 million returning voters.
The following analysis is additional confirmation that the election was stolen.
In the 2004 National Exit Poll, there were 13,660 respondents (51.7% said they voted for Kerry and 47.0% for Bush). Kerry led throughout the exit poll timeline, from 8349 at 4pm to the final 13660 respondents.
But the NEP was forced to match recorded vote by switching 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 respondents to Bush. The average within precinct discrepancy (WPD) was a nearly identical 6.5%. The True Vote Model indicates that Kerry had 53.6%.
There is a conflict between the unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll in which voters were asked who they voted for (Kerry had 51.7%) and the number of returning voters in the ‘How did you vote in 2000’ crosstab (adjusted to 43% of the 2004 electorate for Bush and 37% for Gore).
Confirmation that Kerry won easily
No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, Kerry is the clear winner:
Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%
Of the 13,660 (1% MoE), 3182 (2% MoE) were asked who they voted for in 2000:
1221 (38.4%) said Gore, 1257 (39.5%) Bush, 119 (3.7%) Other, 565 (18.4%) Did not vote.
Kerry had 51.7% in both the
– unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents).
– 12:22am Voted in 2000 crosstab category, assuming 38.4% of 2004 voters were returning Gore voters and 39.5% were returning Bush (as per the 3182 respondents).
But consider these returning 2000 voter scenarios:
Assuming returning 2000 voters were proportional to the…
1. 2000 Recorded vote.. Kerry had 52.4%
2. 2000 Total votes cast… Kerry had 53.1%
3. 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll… Kerry had 53.0%
4. 2000 True Vote: Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate… Kerry had 53.6% (True Vote: plausible 2000 returning voter mix)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV.. 22.4 17.8% 57.0% 41.0% 2.0%
Gore. 52.1 41.4% 91.0% 8.00% 1.0%
Bush. 47.4 37.7% 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Other. 3.8 3.1% 64.0% 17.0% 19.0%
Total 125.7 100% 53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Votes Cast...... 67.36 56.67 1.71
Note: In the 2008 National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents), 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004. The results confirmed the 5-7% Kerry margins shown above:
Kerry had 1815 (50.2%), Bush 1614 (44.6%), Other 168 (5.2%), Did not vote 581 (13.4%)
2004 National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led all the way at each point in the timeline- from 8,649 to 13,660 respondents.
But the National Election Pool funds the exit pollsters. The NEP did not want the public to know that Kerry won the True Vote. So they adjusted the National Exit Poll to conform to the stolen election recorded vote. The Timeline, in conjunction with the impossible number of returning 2000 Bush voters, is a powerful confirmation that the will of the voters was compromised just like it was in 2000. Bush stole both elections.
The Washington Post displayed the 2004 National Exit Poll at 12:22am. Note that returning Nader voters (3% of the 2004 electorate) are missing in the 2000 presidential votecategory. Since Kerry won at least 64% of returning Nader voters, not including them in the crosstab reduced his total vote share margin from 3.7% to 1%. Was this just an oversight?
11/02/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51.0%; Bush 47.0%
11/02/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 50.9%; Bush 47.1%
11/03/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents)
Data Source: Roper Center (UConn) Sample. Kerry Bush Other
13,660. 7,064 6,414 182
Share. 51.71% 46.95% 1.34%
Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents (adjusted to match the recorded vote).
Bush 50.7%; Kerry 48.3%
Washington Post National Exit Poll, 12:22am, 13,047 respondents
The 2000 Presidential Vote category is missing the critical 3% who were returning Nader voters. Kerry won Nader voters by 64-17%. The exit pollsters also avoided the simple math calculation for total vote shares. This table includes returning Nader voters and the vote share calculation:
Kerry 51.2%; Bush 47.5%; Nader 1.3%
2000 Presidential vote:
2000... Mix Kerry Bush Nader
DNV.... 0.17 0.57 0.41 0.02
Gore... 0.39 0.91 0.08 0.01
Bush... 0.41 0.10 0.90 0.00
Nader.. 0.03 0.64 0.17 0.19
Total.. 100% 51.2% 47.5% 1.3%
Election Fraud Polling Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
Do you believe the 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents)? If you do, then you must also believe in miracles. The NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%). It indicated that there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. View the 2004 unadjusted state and national exit polls. The pollsters had to create 6 million Bush phantoms in order to force the unadjusted NEP to match the recorded vote.
It’s basic Logic 101: If an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters is required for the 2004 National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, then the 2004 recorded vote must also be impossible. Ergo, the FINAL exit poll and the official vote count must both be fraudulent.
And if you still believe in 6 million Bush phantoms, then you must NOT believe the unadjusted…
1) National poll (13,660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
2) State exit polls (76,192 respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
Let’s calculate the returning Gore and Bush percentage mix of 2004 voters, assuming 1.25% annual mortality and 97% Gore/Bush turnout of living voters.
We apply the following methods:
1) 2000 Votes cast: Gore by 50.0-47.3%.
He had 75% of 6 million uncounted votes.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 41.0/38.2%.
Kerry wins by 53.2-45.4%
2) 2000 Unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate: Gore by 50.8-45.5%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 vote: 41.4/37.0%.
Kerry wins by 53.9-44.7%
3) 2000 Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore by 48.5-46.3%.
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate: 39.4/37.6%.
Kerry wins by 52.9-45.7%
4) 2004 National Exit Poll (adjusted to matched the recorded vote).
Returning Gore/Bush share of 2004 electorate:37/43% (impossible 110% living Bush 2000 voter turnout).
Bush wins by 50.7-48.3%
Given the 2000 recorded vote, unadjusted NEP (13660 respondents) vote shares and a 98% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters, Kerry needed just 73% of living Gore voters to TIE Bush. For Bush to win a 3.0 million recorded vote “mandate”, there had to be a 64% maximum turnout of Gore voters. If you believe that was the case, there is a great Chinese restaurant in lower Manhattan near a famous old bridge for sale.
Assuming a plausible 98% turnout of Gore and Bush voters, Kerry had a 53.6% True Vote and won by more than 10 million votes.
Consider the following myths and anomalies about the 2004 election.
1- Myth: The media exhaustively analyzed state and national pre-election /exit poll data and documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts.
Fact: raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public. And the pundits have failed to explain the impossible anomalies in the final national and state exit polls.
2- Myth: There are many explanations as to why the exit polls were wrong. Evaluation of the Edison Mitofsky Election System
Fact: Kerry voters sought to be interviewed; Bush voters were reluctant; young interviewers sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters lied to the exit pollsters and said that they voted for Bush in 2000; exit polls are not random samples; exit polls in the U.S. are not designed to catch election fraud; early exit polls overstated the Kerry vote; women voted early; Republicans voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry, etc.
Fact: none are supported by the evidence. In fact, they are refuted by the exit pollsters own data and timeline.
3- Myth: The votes were fairly counted.
Fact: There is no way to prove that. Voting machines are vulnerable and the code is proprietary; there is no chain of evidence or hand-recounts of paper ballots. The 2004 Vote Census indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast and just 122.3m recorded. Investigative reporter Greg Palast provided government data which confirmed the Census: at least 3 million ballots were never counted.
4- Myth: Democrats failed to attract first-time voters.
Fact: According to the National Exit Poll (NEP), the Democratic candidates won first-time voters by solid margins in every election since 1992. In 2008 Obama won new voters by 71-27%. The 2004 NEP timeline indicated that Kerry had 62% of new voters at 4pm, 59% at 9pm and 57% at 1222am. But the Final NEP was forced to match the recorded vote. It indicated that Kerry had just 54% of new voters, a massive 8% decline from the earlier share.
5- Myth: Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating was not a major factor.
Fact: Since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush 1). Incumbents above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). There was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average of the national pre-election polls. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the National Exit Poll by 51-48%.
7- Myth: Late voters came out for Bush.
Fact: Bush had 51.5% of the first 115.8 million recorded votes. Kerry had 54.6% of the final 5.3 million. Kerry led by a constant 51-48% in the National Exit Poll timeline from 8349 to the final 13660 respondents
8- Myth: The final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls.
Fact: After undecided voters were allocated (3-1 for Kerry), the weighted pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9% to 50.9-47.9) and national polls (Kerry 47.2-46.9% to 50.2-47.9) closely matched the aggregate weighted unadjusted state (51.7-47.0%) and national exit polls(51.1-47.9%).
9- Myth: Bogus assumptions in the Election Model enabled the forecast that Kerry would win 337 EV.
Fact: The only (conservative) assumption was that Kerry would capture at least 75% of the undecided vote. Popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by the 2004 Election Simulation and True Vote Model.
10- Myth: There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger.
Fact: Historical evidence shows that undecided voters break for the challenger at least 80% of the time – especially when the incumbent is unpopular. Bush had a 48% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported that late polling indicated Kerry would win 60-80% of the undecided vote. Gallup allocated 88% of undecided voters to Kerry.
11- Myth: Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls.
Fact: Kerry led Bush by close to 1% in the weighted state polls They were tied at 47% based on the national 18-poll average. After allocating the undecided 5%, Kerry was a 51-48% winner.
12- Myth: Non-response exit poll bias (reluctant Bush responder) was the reason 43 states red-shifted from the exit polls to the recorded vote to Bush.
Fact: Response rates were lowest in Kerry urban strongholds and highest in Bush strongholds. The rBr hypothesis was proven false by US Count Votes.
13- Myth: It was just a fluke that Oregon was the only battleground state where Kerry did better than Gore. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/01/02/the-oregon-voting-system-statistical-evidence-that-it-works/
Fact: Oregon is the only state which votes by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots AND mandates hand counts of randomly selected counties – a powerful election fraud deterrent. Kerry did worse than Gore in the other battleground states because none of them had an equivalent fraud deterrent. DRE touchscreen computers that were used to calculate 30% of the votes are unverifiable. Optical scanned paper ballots were not hand-counted.
14- Myth: exit polls did not indicate that electronic voting machines are fraudulent.
Fact: All voting methods had high discrepancies – except for paper ballots which had just a 2% average discrepancy. Lever machine precincts had the highest (11%) discrepancies. Unverifiable touch screen (DRE) and optical scan precincts each had 7%. There were 88 reported touchscreen vote switching incidents – 86 switched votes from Kerry to Bush (a zero probability).
15- Myth: “The exit polls behaved badly”.
Fact: Final state and national exit polls are ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote. It’s standard operating procedure. But the media pundits assume a fraud-free election. Millions of uncounted votes prove that elections have been anything but fraud-free. And the 6 million phantom Bush voters required by the Final 2004 National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote proves that it cannot be correct.
17- Myth: The exit poll margin of error was too low.
Fact: Even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. The exit poll discrepancies exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry – a zero probability. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the MoE was exceeded in 24 states for Bush.
18- Myth: There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush.
Fact: The probability of the one-sided red shift is equivalent to coin-flipping 21 consecutive heads: 1 in 2 million. But 14 exit polls deviated beyond the margin of error – a ZERO probability.
19- Myth: Exit polls are not true random samples.
Fact: Exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky state in the notes to the National Exit Poll and Methods Statement that respondents were randomly-selected and there is an overall 1% margin of error for 10,000 respondents. But there were over 13,000 respondents. The MoE was 1.1% after adding a 30% “cluster effect”
20- Myth: Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters. http://www.richardcharnin.com/WPDConfirmation.htm
Fact: This is contradicted by the Final National Exit Poll. The Final indicated that returning Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the 2004 electorate compared to just 37% for Gore voters (i.e. there were 7 million more returning Bush than Gore voters). But Gore won the unadjusted exit poll by 50-45% (3-6 million votes). The rBr canard was also contradicted by a linear regression analysis. Non-response rates were highest in Kerry strongholds, indicating that most non-responders were in fact Kerry voters.
21- Myth: Ohio, Florida and National exit polls show that Bush won.
Fact: FINAL State and National exit polls are ALWAYS adjusted (forced) to match the recorded vote even when the votes are miscounted – as they were in 2004. Unadjusted state and national exit polls showed Kerry winning by 54-45% in Ohio, and 51-48% in Florida. He won by 52-47% in the unadjusted National Exit Poll.
22- Myth: The Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix is possible. After all, it’s just a poll.
Fact: The 43/37 mix was not a polling result. It was contrived to force a match to the recorded vote. This is the incontrovertible proof: Kerry had 7074 (51.7%) of the UNADJUSTED 13660 NEP respondents; Bush had 6414 (47.0%). Of the 13660, 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. When the 39.5/38.4 mix is applied to the 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry has 51.7%, EXACTLY MATCHING THE UNADJUSTED NEP. This exposes the Final NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. It is additional proof that mix was a FORCED CONTRIVANCE to MATCH the BOGUS RECORDED VOTE and NOT an actual sample.
Fact: The mix could not have from changed from 41/39 at 12:22am to 43/37 with just 613 additional respondents. Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6 million) of the 122.3 million votes recorded in 2004 since he only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election. Therefore, there were at most 48.0 million returning Bush voters in 2004 – assuming an impossible 100% turnout. If 98% turned out, there were 47.0 million returning Bush voters. That means there had to be 5.6 million (52.6 less 47.0) phantom voters.
23- Myth: The Democratic Underground “Game” thread showed a scenario that Bush could have won with a feasible and plausible 39/39% returning Bush/Gore mix. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2015/08/24/13549/
Fact: In order to force a match to the recorded vote, the NEP vote shares had to be adjusted to implausible levels far beyond the margin of error. The scenario required a) Kerry’s share of new voters reduced from 57% to 52.9%, b) Bush’s share of Gore voters increased from 8% to 14.6% and c) Bush 2000 returning voter defection rate reduced from 10% to 7.2%.
24- Myth: The near-zero a correlation between vote swing (from 2000 to 2004) and 2004 exit poll red-shift “kills the fraud argument”. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/killing-the-zero-slope-no-fraud-argument-recorded-vote-swingexit-poll-red-shift/
Fact: “Swing vs. Red-shift” is based on an invalid premise and twisted logic. It uses 2000 and 2004 recorded votes to prove there was no fraud in 2004. But the votes were obviously fraudulent (there were 6 million uncounted votes in 2000 and 4 million in 2004). There is a strong correlation between vote swing and red-shift when unadjusted state exit polls are used as proxies for the True Vote.
25- Myth: Gore voter “False Recall” explains the NEP 43/37 Bush/Gore returning voter mix. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/10/17/the-unadjusted-2004-national-exit-poll-closing-the-book-on-the-returning-gore-voter-false-recall-myth/
Fact: The 43/37 argument is hereby put to eternal rest. This closes the book on “False Recall”. Of the total 13660 NEP respondents, 7064 (51.7%) voted for Kerry and 6414 (47.0%) for Bush. Only 3182 were asked who they voted for in 2000: 1257 (39.5%) said Bush, 1221 (38.4%) said Gore. Using the 39.5/38.4% mix and 12:22am NEP vote shares, Kerry wins by 51.8-46.8%, exactly matching the unadjusted NEP, putting the lie to the published Final NEP (Bush 50.7-48.3%). The Final was derived by forcing a match based on a fictitious 43/37 returning Bush/Gore mix. The unadjusted 13660 sample had to be “adjusted” to have the Final NEP match the fraudulent recorded share. Bottom line: The rationale for the 43/37% returning voter mix is no longer debatable. It was clearly a forced result – not an actual sample.
26- Myth: An NES survey indicates that “a slow drifting fog” caused Gore voters to say they voted for Bush.
Fact: NES used 2000 and 2004 (105.4m and 122.3m) recorded votes as a baseline for the survey, rather than True Votes cast (110.8m and 125.7m). There were nearly 6 million uncounted votes in 2000, of which approximately 4.5 million were for Gore. Counting these votes, Gore won the True Vote by 2-3 million – not the 540,000 recorded. And Kerry won 3 of 4 million uncounted votes. Using votes cast as the baseline shows that NES respondents did not misstate their 2000 vote.
Fact: Only 3182 (23%) of 13660 of respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. All were asked who they voted for in 2004. Voters do not forget who they voted for in the previous election, much less how they just voted a few minutes earlier. False recall was obviously not a factor in the pre-election polls; they matched the exit polls after undecided voters were allocated. The unadjusted National Exit Poll data has been released, so we know that exactly 51.7% of the respondents voted for Kerry – and just 47.0% for Bush.
27- Myth: Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote to the exit pollsters because they wanted to be associated with the winner: Bush.
Fact: Bush had a 48% approval rating on Election Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents who gave Bush 10-20% approval. Gore was the popular vote winner in 2000 – by at least 3 million True Votes. So why would Gore voters want to be associated with Bush? It makes no sense.
28- Myth: Bush gained 12 million new voters in 2004.
Fact: Simple arithmetic shows that Bush needed more than 16 million new voters. He had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died and 1.0m did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, 47 million Bush 2000 voters returned to vote in 2004. He needed 15 million (68%) of 22 million new voters to get his recorded 62 million. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he had just 9 million(41%) new voters – 7 million (27%) fewer than he needed. The probability that 68% of new voters voted for Bush is ZERO.
29- Myth: Bush won by a 3 million vote “mandate”.
Fact: Gore won by 540,000 recorded votes officially so Kerry had a head-start. According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry had 57% of new (DNV) voters (first-timers and others who did not vote in 2000). He won returning Nader voters by 64-17% and 10% of Bush voters. Just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. So how could Bush have won? He needed a massive net defection of Gore voters. And Gore won by 3-6 million votes – not the 540,000 recorded. That makes it impossible for Bush to have won.
30- Myth: Sensitivity analysis showing that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is not a mathematical proof.
Fact: It is proof beyond a reasonable doubt when the WORST CASE (implausible) scenario indicates a Kerry win probability GREATER THAN 90% and the BASE CASE (plausible) scenario indicates a win probability GREATER THAN 99%.
31- Myth: Bush’s share of females (48%) increased by 4.2% over his 2000 share.
Fact: That’s implausible since his share of males declined by 0.2%. It is totally counter-intuitive to believe that females would defect to Bush and males would defect to Kerry. In the 12:22am NEP, females voted 54-45% for Kerry.
33- Myth: Bush won Florida by 52-47%, a 368,000 vote margin.
Fact: Democrats had a 41-37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (DRE) counties and a 42-39% advantage in Optical Scan (OS) counties. Kerry won DRE counties (3.9 million votes) by 51-47%. Bush won OS counties (3.4 million) by an implausible 57-42%. The final Zogby pre-election poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In 2000, Gore had 70% of 180,000 uncounted votes; he won the state by at least 50,000 votes. Dan Rather’s expose on voting machines proved that the poor-quality paper used in the punch card machines was a major cause of ballot spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.
34- Myth: NY pre-election and final exit polls (Kerry 58.5-40.2%) were correct. The unadjusted exit poll Kerry (64.1-34.4%) was wrong. Bush supposedly did better in 2004 than his 2000 vote share in the 15 largest (Democratic) New York City and suburban counties. That is an Urban Legend – impossible on its face.http://richardcharnin.com/NewYorkVotingAnomalies.htm
Fact: New York and California were rigged to inflate Bush’s popular vote margin and provided 2.0 million of his 3.0 million vote “mandate”. NY voted 60.5% for Gore, 35.4% for Bush and 4.1% for Nader. This is just one example of the impossible scenarios required to match the the 2004 NY vote: a) 100% of returning Nader voters had to break for Bush (he had 17% nationally), b) Bush needed 50% of new voters (he had 41% nationally), c) Bush needed 11% of returning Gore voters (he had 8% nationally).
The clincher: Kerry’s NY share was 10% higher than his national share. How could Bush have done so much better in heavily Democratic NY with returning Gore, Nader and new voters than he did nationally? It is extremely counter-intuitive and makes no sense. Pre-election likely voter (LV) polls did not factor in the heavy turnout of new Kerry voters. The final pre-election NY LV poll had a 4% margin of error (MoE). There was a 95% probability that Kerry would be in the 54.5-62.5% range – and that is conservative because it is based on an LV poll.
The NY exit poll had a 3.2% MoE. Therefore, there was a 95% probability that Kerry’s vote was between 60.9-67.3% and was within the MoE of BOTH the LV pre-election poll (which low-balled Kerry turnout) and the unadjusted exit poll.
35- Myth: Unlike touchscreens and optical scanners, lever voting machines cannot be programmed to switch votes.
Fact: The NY exit poll discrepancy was 12% – far beyond the 3.2% margin of error. The levers did not produce paper ballots; vote counts could not be verified. Defective levers were placed in urban precincts; many voters left the precincts without voting. Lever advocates refuse to consider this fact: Votes CAST on levers were COUNTED on unverifiable central tabulators.
36- Myth: Polling data was cherry-picked and biased for Kerry.
Fact: The following models used exit poll data for 1250 precincts provided by Edison-Mitofsky and included partisan response rates and corresponding average within precinct discrepancies (WPE). The models produced equivalent results. They confirmed the USCV simulation which debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.
a) 1250 precinct response: Kerry won the 2-party vote:52.1-47.9%.
b) Location-size response: Kerry by 52.1-47.9%.
c) State exit poll response: Kerry by 52.3-47.7%.
d) Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents: Kerry by 51.7-47.0% (52.4-47.6% 2-party)
e) Unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 respondents): Kerry by 51.1-47.5% (51.8-48.2% 2-party)