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JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths

JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths

Richard Charnin
Aug.30, 2013
Updated: June 6, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Tables and Graphs

JFK Calc is an online spreadsheet database of witnesses, probability calculations, graphs and links to other data sources. It has all of the information required for a robust analysis: a) known witness universe, b) official cause of death, c) average unnatural mortality rates and d) relevant time period (1964-1978).

There were at least 122 suspicious deaths from 1964-78 among an estimated 1400 JFK material witnesses. At least 78 were officially ruled unnatural: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown. Given the 1964-1978 national average unnatural mortality rate (0.000822), only 17 unnatural deaths would be expected. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is E-31 (ZERO). It’s even lower (E-62) using the JFK-weighted rate. Assuming that some of the “accidents”, “suicides” and “heart attacks” were actually homicides, the probabilities would be even lower. But it’s a moot point since they are virtually ABSOLUTE ZERO given the official cause of death.

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination describes approximately 1400 individuals who were related in any way to the assassination; 95 are included in JFK Calc . But the 27 witnesses in JFK Calc that are not included in Who’s Who are very relevant.

It is important to note that the 1964-78 average homicide rate (1 in 12,000) was much lower than accidental deaths (1 in 1,700) and suicides (1 in 7,700). An analysis comparing unnatural JFK witness deaths to the expected number is not nearly as dramatic as comparing homicides. Nationally, homicides comprised 10% of unnatural deaths. But there were 34 ruled homicides (44%) among the 78 JFK unnatural deaths. If the analysis was restricted to homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and more powerful.

Unnatural JFK Deaths; National Average Rates (1964-78)
Homicide (34): 0.000084 (1 in 12,000)
Accident (24): 0.000594 (1 in 1,700)
Suicide (16): 0.000130 (1 in 7,700)
Unknown (4): 0.000010 (1 in 100,000)
Total (78): 0.000818 (1 in 1,200)

LONDON TIMES ACTUARY
At least 13 unnatural deaths among 454 witnesses

Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78.
Using the 0.000209 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 18 deaths is ZERO:
P = E-17 = 1- POISSON (13, 0.29, false)
P = 1 in 100,000 trillion

WARREN COMMISSION
At least 20 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses

Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78.
Using the 0.000257 weighted WC witness rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = 1.8E-18= POISSON (20, 1.14 false)
P = 1 in 500,000 trillion

1400 MATERIAL WITNESSES (Who's Who in the JFK Assassination)
1964-78: at least 78 ruled unnatural deaths
Normally, 17 would be expected.
Using the 0.000822 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-27 = POISSON (78, 17.27, false)
P = 1 in 100 trillion trillion

Using the JFK-weighted rate (0.000247), the probability is even lower:
P = E-62 = POISSON (78, 5.18, false)

1964-78: at least 34 ruled homicides
Normally, 2 would be expected.
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-31 = POISSON (34, 1.77, false)
P = 1 in 6 million trillion trillion

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

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Posted by on August 30, 2013 in JFK

 

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Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Sensitivity Analysis proves a JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
August 2, 2013
Updated: Aug. 5, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

It’s all in the numbers. In both cases, we have a series of observations. The 122 JFK witness deaths (78 ruled unnatural) are from 1964-78; the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls are from the six elections in 1988-2008. There are numerous data anomalies in the accumulated totals in both.

The problems are similar. In the Election Fraud analysis, we need to determine the number of state exit polls which fell outside the margin of error for each candidate. We would expect a near equal split. In the JFK analysis, we need to compare the number of unnatural witness deaths to what would normally be expected based on unnatural mortality rates, given the number of JFK-related witnesses.

We assume the Null Hypothesis: No JFK Conspiracy; No substantive Election Fraud. The first step is to record witness and mortality rate data in a spreadsheet. A mathematical analysis determines if the observations are reasonable based on statistical expectation. If the resulting probabilities go to zero, we reject the null hypothesis; we have proved systemic election fraud and a JFK conspiracy.

The data parameters are limited in scope.
– JFK: witness universe, unnatural deaths, time period, mortality rate
– Election Fraud: state elections, exit polls, recorded shares, margin of error

In both studies, we seek to determine the probabilities based on the number of…
– JFK: unnatural deaths vs. expected number based on mortality statistics.
– Election Fraud: exit polls exceeding the margin of error vs. expected number.

I posted the following analysis on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His response was typical disinformation; he wrote that I am reluctant to have the analysis peer-reviewed. But no one has ever come forth to refute the election fraud or JFK analysis. The work has been available on spreadsheets to everyone with Internet access for years. It has been cited in Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, Crossfire by Jim Marrs and Presidential Puppetry by Andrew Kreig.

McAdams is apparently incapable of doing a peer-review himself. I suggested that he ask the math or political science professors at Marquette University but he has not done so. https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
We calculate the discrepancies between each of the 274 unadjusted exit polls and the corresponding recorded vote shares to determine the number of polls (n) in which the margin of error (MoE) was exceeded. We then calculate the probability.

The MoE is a function of the number of exit poll respondents plus an additional 30% cluster factor. For example, the calculated 2.50% MoE and a 30% (0.75) cluster factor results in a 3.25% MoE.

In the six presidential elections from 1988-2008, the MoE was exceeded in 135 of the 274 exit polls, 131 moving in favor of the Republican and just 4 to the Democrat. At the 95% confidence level, we would expect that the MoE would be exceeded in 14 polls.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in 131 of 274 exit polls in favor of the GOP is a ridiculous E-116 (116 zeros to the right of the decimal point). That is a big fat ZERO. But what if the cluster factor is higher than 30%? It would increase the MoE; therefore, the number of polls in which the MoE was exceeded would be lower.

In the sensitivity analysis, we calculate probabilities for cluster factors ranging from 0-100%. The most likely base case is the 30% cluster factor (a total 3.60% average MoE). The exit poll margin of error was exceeded in 135 of the 274 elections. The probability P= E-83 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

Even assuming an impossible 200% cluster factor, the resulting 8.31% MoE was exceeded in 29 elections – a 1 in 10,000 probability. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=43

If the six elections were fair, we would expect the MoE to be exceeded in approximately 14 of 274 exit polls. The margin of error scenarios all show that the exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote were overwhelmingly one-sided in favor of the GOP. The probabilities of the red-shift were ZERO in all scenarios. Therefore we can conclude that Election Fraud is systemic beyond any doubt.

US Count Votes did a comprehensive simulaton analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. I created an exit poll response optimization model which confirmed the USCV simuation: http://www.richardcharnin.com/ExitPollResponseOptimization.htm

JFK Assassination Witnesses

There has been an ongoing controversy over the number of witnesses who died mysteriously ever since the actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. The HSCA claimed that the “universe” of material witnesses was unknowable, therefore the calculation was invalid and was not proof of a conspiracy. But an approximate number (1400+) was knowable.

Approximately 67 of 1100+ witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-1978 died suspiciously. Of the 552 who testified at the Warren Commission in 1964, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally). In three investigations (Garrison/Shaw trial, Church, HSCA) approximately 600 witnesses were called to testify; 37 died suspiciously. Most of the deaths occurred just before their scheduled testimony.

We have a finite universe of witnesses, the number and cause of unnatural deaths, and the unnatural mortality rates. Given this input, we can calculate the expected number of deaths and compare it to the actual number. This is analogous to the actual and expected numbers of exit polls exceeding the margin of error.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.
We calculate a probability matrix of unnatural deaths over a range of material witnesses and number of deaths. We can then analyze the effects of these two key factors on the probability. As the number of witnesses (N) increase for a given number (n) of deaths, so does the probability that n deaths will occur. Conversely, as the number of unnatural witness deaths (n) increase for a given number (N) of witnesses, the probabilities will decrease.

There were at least 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths of 1400+ material witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown causes. The probability is E-62 assuming the average weighted JFK unnatural mortality rate (0.000247). It is E-41 assuming the average unweighted national unnatural rate (0.000822). But many suicides and accidents were actually homicides (the number of official unnatural deaths far exceeded the statistical expectation).

The sensitivity analysis table of unnatural deaths and corresponding matrix for homicides shows that the probability of unnatural deaths is ZERO in all plausible combination scenarios.

There are some who claim there were many more than 1400 witnesses. But other than the 1400 listed in Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there is no comparable list of material witnesses. The FBI claimed 25,000 persons were interviewed. But how many were material witnesses who had information related to the assassination? Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of 84 homicides in 15 years is 1 in 100 trillion.

Average 1964-78 Homicide rate: 0.000084
Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of 80 Homicides for N witnesses (1964-78)
N….Probability

1400 1.68E-100
2000 1.94E-88

3000 6.70E-75
3500 8.07E-70
4000 1.87E-65
4500 1.23E-61
5000 2.99E-58

5500 3.25E-55
6000 1.82E-52
6500 5.85E-50
7000 1.17E-47
7500 1.55E-45

8000 1.44E-43
10000 6.48E-37
15000 1.42E-25
20000 2.52E-18
25000 4.17E-13 (1 in 2,396,168,995,675)

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Election Myths, JFK

 

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JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify

JFK Assassination Paradigm Shift: Deaths of Witnesses Called to Testify

Richard Charnin
July 18, 2013
Updated: Dec.30,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

This post will describe the methodology used to calculate mortality rates and associated probabilities of the deaths of witnesses who testified or were sought in four JFK-related investigations. The method represents a paradigm shift in analyzing witness deaths and is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt. The only relevant variables needed for calculating probabilities are the number (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died unnaturally, the time period (T), and the unnatural mortality rate (R).

Note: I posted this on John McAdams’ JFK assassination site. His only response is that I am afraid to have this analysis peer-reviewed. In effect, he has given up the ghost since he himself cannot refute it. https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups=#!topic/alt.assassination.jfk/gy1LY3aTm60

The irrefutable probabilities of witness deaths confirms what we already know and closes the book on academic, media and entertainment shills who, despite 50 years of overwhelming evidence – eyewitness, forensic, medical, photographic, ballistic, acoustic, etc. – combined with the recorded death-bed confessions of participants in the conspiracy, continue to perpetuate the insane Magic Bullet Theory and that Oswald lied when he said he was “just a patsy”.

Warren Commission (WC) apologists and “coincidence” theorists (CTs) have offered tortured explanations to refute the relevance of witness deaths by challenging the witness connection to the assassination and/or cause of death. But their explanations are an exercise in futility; they miss the forest for the trees. Focusing on any particular death is an irrelevant distraction. First, they are debunked by the known number of witnesses who testified or were sought to testify in the four investigations. Second, the fact they were sought is obvious proof that they were relevant. Coincidence theorists (CTs) and WC apologists avoid and/or are ignorant of the mathematical analysis required for calculating the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths occurring in a known universe of witnesses.

The witness death controversy was ignited by the 1973 film Executive Action in which it was disclosed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 trillion to 1 odds that 18 material witnesses would die in the three years following the assassination. If the calculation was valid, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy to eliminate witnesses and would destroy the Warren Commission’s conclusion that there was no conspiracy.

The HSCA designated statistician dismissed the calculation as invalid, claiming it was impossible to determine a known universe of witnesses. But this conclusion is easily debunked by the known universe of witnesses called to testify at the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate Intelligence hearings and House Select Committee (HSCA). The number of witnesses sought is obviously a known quantity. And the Warren Commission apologists are debunked: they were material and connected to the assassination, otherwise they would never have been called to testify in the first place.

The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

The Probability Formula
The only relevant factors are the number of witnesses (N) called to testify, the number (n) who died, the time period (T) and the appropriate mortality rate (R). Given these factors, we have all the information we need to calculate E, the expected number of deaths: E = N * T * R. Given the expected number, the Poisson formula calculates the probability of n deaths:
P(n) = E^n * exp(-E) / n!
P = Poisson (n, E, false) is the probability function for exactly n deaths.
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true) is the probability function for at least n deaths.

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

Warren Commission witnesses
A total of N=552 witnesses were interviewed. At least 30 died suspiciously (n=18 unnaturally) in the T=15 years from 1964-1978. Only 1 or 2 unnatural deaths is expected.

Using the annual national homicide rate (0.000084), we would expect zero or one homicide among the 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-1978. But there were at least 11 homicides. The probability of at least 11 homicides is:
P = 1 – Poisson (n-1, E, true)
P = 1 – Poisson (10, 0.70, true)
P = 2.54E-10 = 1 in 4 billion

Four Investigations
Approximately 1100 material witnesses were sought to testify in four JFK-related investigations from 1964-78: 552 testified at the Warren Commission. The others were sought to testify at the Garrison/Shaw Trial, Senate Intelligence Hearings and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

At least 67 of the 1100 died under suspicious circumstances and are included in the JFK Calc 122 witness database. It is obvious that the 30 WC witnesses who died unnaturally and suspiciously were relevant; they all testified. The vast majority of the other 37 witnesses who were sought in the three investigations that followed died suspiciously shortly before they could testify.

Of the 67 deaths, 46 were officially ruled unnatural, including 18 homicides. The other 21 died from suspiciously timed heart attacks, illnesses and natural causes.

David Ferrie supposedly committed suicide a few days before he was scheduled to testify before a grand jury at the Clay Shaw trial in 1967. Sam Giancana was murdered before he had a chance to testify at the Church Senate hearings in 1975. George de Morenschildt supposedly shot himself the day he was notified of his interview by the HSCA. Seven (7) top FBI officials died within a six month period in 1977 prior to their scheduled testimony at the HSCA. And there were many more.

1400 Material Witnesses: 78 Official Unnatural Deaths
Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination is a reference text of 1400+ suspects, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators. The JFK Calc
spreadsheet includes 122 material witnesses of whom 78 died unnaturally (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown). The 44 “natural” deaths include 25 suspicious (induced?) heart attacks.

Only 17 unnatural deaths would normally be expected among 1400 material witnesses in the 15 year period – but there were at least 78. The probability is ZERO.

Nearly half of the unnatural deaths occurred during two major investigations in just over two years: 16 in 1964 (Warren Commission)and 22 in 1977-78 (HSCA). Timing is everything.

Unweighted and Weighted Mortality Rates

Nationally, accidents comprised 66% of unnatural deaths compared to 11% for homicides. But 34 of 78 (44%) JFK witness unnatural deaths were homicides; therefore we need to weight the JFK-witness rates by cause of death to calculate probabilities. In fact, if the analysis was restricted to homicides the mathematical proof would be simpler and even more powerful.

The weighted rate is the sum-product of the individual unnatural rates and corresponding deaths:
R = 0.000247 = (34*0.000825 + 16*0.000130 + 24*0.000594 + 3* 0.00001)/78

 
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Posted by on July 17, 2013 in JFK

 

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Debunking John McAdams’ “Debunking” of Jim Marrs’ JFK Witness List

Debunking John McAdams’ “Debunking” of Jim Marrs’ JFK Witness List

Richard Charnin
July 8, 2013
Updated: June 11, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

John McAdams is the foremost Warren Commission apologist and Lone Nutter. He has spawned a number of wannabees who parrot his writings on internet forums dedicated to the JFK Assassination. To McAdams, JFK researchers seeking the truth are “conspiracy buffs” who are wrong to believe scores of eyewitnesses, Parkland doctors, photographic and acoustic evidence.

McAdams astounding propensity to obfuscate is best illustrated in his attempt to debunk Jim Marrs’ list in “Strange” and “Convenient” Deaths Surrounding the Assassination: http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/deaths.htm.

McAdams’ disinformation has been thoroughly debunked by many researchers: http://richardcharnin.com/JMLaughingStock.html

This post will prove that McAdams’ decades-long effort to refute the relevance of the JFK witnesses is an exercise in futility.

The following logical analysis represents a profound PARADIGM SHIFT in analyzing the significance of the “convenient” witness deaths. To prove a conspiracy, it does not matter one iota if individual witnesses were related or material to the assassination (even though they obviously were). Witness relevance and connection to JFK becomes obvious after the fact.

The salient point is that the number of witnesses called to testify in four investigations and died unnaturally by homicide, accident or suicide (or suspiciously timed heart-attacks) far exceeded the mathematical expectation. The probability is essentially ZERO that the number of unnatural deaths would occur in each investigation (as well as collectively in four). Therefore, if the deaths were not coincidental, there had to be a connection which means there was a conspiracy. It is no longer debatable.

This straightforward probability analysis closes the book on McAdams’ decades-old barrage of disinformation and utter disregard for the truth. As a professor of political science, one would expect McAdams to seek the truth with an honest scientific evaluation of the facts. His avoidance – or inability – of engaging in an honest analysis cannot be attributed totally to pure ignorance. His agenda is obvious to anyone paying attention. He has been exposed time and again as an illogical coincidence theorist (CT). The “tell” is his inability to refute the basic mathematical analysis which proves that there was a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. He reveals his ignorance of logic and probability theory here: http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/logic.htm

Apparently, McAdams had a limited math background, otherwise he would have done the analysis. His total ignorance of probability theory is shown by his feeble, pathetic attempt to refute the testimony of eyewitnesses and medical doctors at Parkland Hospital. The man has no shame. And this is a university professor? http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/logic2.htm

We will teach you, “professor”.This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

Facts, logic and mathematical proof are the bane of the disinformationist. Knowing the unnatural mortality rate (R) for (n) witness unnatural deaths in a group of (N) individuals over a given time period (T) is all that is required in order to calculate the probability of (n) deaths. The first step is to calculate R, the weighted average unnatural mortality rate:
R = (homicide rate* homicides + accidental death rate* accidents + Suicide rate*suicides+unknown rate* unknowns)/unnatural deaths

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=0

As a quantitative analyst/software developer working in defense/aerospace and Wall Street investment banking, I had the pleasure of programming mathematical models that were much more complex than calculating probabilities of JFK witness unnatural deaths. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/07/01/jfk-mysterious-witness-deaths-london-sunday-times-and-hsca-cover-up/

JFK Calc is an online spreadsheet that contains a database of 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths, mortality rates, probability calculations, Dealey Plaza witness testimonies, graphs and links to data sources. JFK Calc has all the information required for a robust analysis: a) known witness groups, b) official cause of death, c) unnatural mortality rates and d) 1,3 and 15 year probability calculations (1964-1978).

Of the 122 witness deaths; 95 are included in the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination. The text contains summaries of 1400+ individuals (witnesses, suspects, police, FBI, CIA, Mafia, anti-Castro Cubans, reporters, etc.) material to the assassination.

There were approximately 67 suspicious deaths from 1964-78 among approximately 1100 witnesses called to testify at the 1964 Warren Commission, 1969 Garrison/Shaw trial, 1975 Church Senate Intelligence Hearings and 1977-79 HSCA investigation. At least 47 deaths were unnatural, of which 17 were official ruled homicides, a very conservative number, since the number of official accidents, suicides and heart attacks were statistically implausible. Based on morality rates, 14 unnatural deaths and one homicide would have been expected during the 15 year period following the assassination. The probability of 47 unnatural deaths is E-49 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion).

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

This is a link to the latest mysterious witness death probabilities and and graphics.

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

552 Warren Commission witnesses
To illustrate, consider the N=552 witnesses who testified at the Warren Commission (in person or affidavit) in the 15 year period from 1964 to 1978. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=22

There were at least 30 suspicious deaths among the 552 witnesses. At least 21 died unnaturally. Only 7 unnatural deaths would have been expected statistically. The probability of at least 21 unnatural deaths is E-20 (1 in 10 billion trillion).

There were at least 122 suspicious deaths among an estimated 1400 JFK material witnesses of which at least 78 were ruled unnatural (only 17 would normally be expected). Given the 1964-1978 JFK-weighted average unnatural mortality rate (0.000247), the probability of 78 unnatural deaths is E-62. But how many “accidents”, “suicides” and suspicious “natural” deaths were actually homicides? The probabilities would be lower still.

I should stop right here. Consider it a PARADIGM SHIFT in analyzing the problem. There is no question about the relevance of witnesses by definition; they were important enough to be called to testify. But even more important, the conspiracy is proved by a simple calculation strictly based on expected and actual unnatural mortality for a given universe of 552 Warren Commission witnesses. This puts the lie to the canard that the universe of witnesses is unknowable. The Poisson function does not include a motive or connection variable. The connection is proven by the infinitesimal probability that at least 21 would die unnaturally.

25,000 FBI Interviews?
Warren Commission apologists claimed that 25,000 were interviewed in the FBI “investigation”. But how many were material? Only about 1400 according to the reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. In 1964-78, the average national HOMICIDE rate was 0.000084. The probability of 80 homicides among a plausible 1400 material witnesses in 15 years (1964-1978): P = E-53= 1 in 1000 trillion trillion trillion trillion

But even assuming the impossible: 25,000 material witnesses were interviewed. The probability of 38 homicides in 1964-1966 is E-23. The probability of at least 80 homicides in 1964-1978 is E-13: 1 in 2 trillion.

My comments follow McAdams.

JM
If there really was the vast conspiracy that the buffs claim, then a lot of people have to know about it. Indeed, a lot of people have to have been part of it — not to speak of the people who must have been intimidated, bribed, or otherwise forced to cooperate by giving false testimony, covering up key evidence, or keeping quiet about some sinister thing they knew.”

RC
Yes, that is true. It was a really big conspiracy.

JM
So why have no credible witnesses come forward with the evidence necessary to blow open the coverup? For the hard-core conspiracy believers, it’s because a “clean-up squad” is going around the country killing off people who might “blow the whistle!”

RC
Many have come forward such as E.Howard Hunt, Dr.Charles Crenshaw (Conspiracy of Silence), Chauncy Holt, Marita Lorenz (read Mark Lane’s Plausible Denial), Sylvia Odio, Abrahan Bolder (The Echo from Dealey Plaza) and Judyth Baker (Me and Lee). But many more were were eliminated.

JM
This theme was first taken up by Penn Jones, Jr., publisher of the Midlothian Mirror, a small-town Texas paper. The most widely cited current list of “mystery deaths” was published by author Jim Marrs (who also released the book Alien Agenda about UFOs). His book Crossfire contains a list of 103 people who have supposedly died “strange” or “convenient” or “mysterious” deaths. As Marrs puts it: “This section has been entitled “Convenient Deaths” because these deaths certainly would have been convenient for anyone not wishing the truth of the JFK assassination to become public”. Unfortunately for Marrs and other conspiracy authors, the logical problems with this whole argument are many and massive.

RC
I have posted probability analysis of witness deaths extensively on my website, blog and various JFK forums which prove that the “convenient” deaths were not just coincidental occurrences. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/jfk/

JM
If the purpose of the “clean-up squad” is to eliminate people who have knowledge of a conspiracy, recruiting people into a “clean-up squad” is a counter-productive activity. Each person recruited becomes yet another person who has knowledge of a conspiracy and might “spill the beans.”

Marrs’ list is drawn from a pool of literally thousands of people — a few of whom had a clear connection with the assassination, many of whom had some tangential connection with the assassination, and some of whom had no connection with the assassination at all.

For example, Marrs’ list includes one woman who was one of Kennedy’s mistresses, but had no known connection with the assassination. It includes a man who was mayor of New Orleans (but who had no known connection with the assassination), and it includes the Chief Steward on Air Force One!

RC
Wrong. Not thousands. Hundreds. Approximately 60 witnesses on Marrs’ list were among an estimated 1100 called to testify in four investigations. If McAdams is referring to Mary Pinchot Meyer, he should have mentioned that she was divorced from Cord Meyer. According to E. Howard Hunt in his deathbed confession, Cord Meyer was approached by LBJ to come up with a plan for the assassination.

JM
The list includes people who were merely connected to the Mafia, the CIA, anti-Castro Cubans, or Time-Life, Incorporated. Marrs is assuming that all these groups were connected with the assassination. In other words, he assumes a conspiracy involving all these groups, tabulates deaths, and then announces that the large number of deaths supports the idea of a conspiracy! Circular logic.

RC
But elements from each group – and others- were involved. Many died unnaturally. The timing of many deaths was suspicious, occurring shortly before they were due to testify. In 1977, seven FBI officials died within a six month period just prior to their scheduled testimony at HSCA. Coincidence? And 14 others never got the chance, either.

JM
Most well-known conspiracy witnesses and authors are still alive. For example, of the best-known conspiracy authors who wrote books in the 1960s, Mark Lane, Edward J. Epstein, and Josiah Thompson are still alive. Sylvia Meagher is dead, but not even Marrs lists her death as “suspicious.” Penn Jones died in January 1998 in a nursing home at the age of 83 after a long struggle with Alzheimer’s disease. Harold Weisberg likewise died in February of 2002 after a long period of failing health. The most prominent conspiracy authors from the 70s and early 80s like David Lifton, Robert Groden, Henry Hurt, Anthony Summers, and Harrison Edward Livingstone are all still alive.

RC
But a number of reporters died unnaturally, including Bill Hunter and Jim Koethe, who just happened to meet in Ruby’s apartment on Nov. 24, 1963. And there were others- like Dorothy Kilgallen, Lisa Howard, Leonard Pullin, C.D. Jackson…

JM
The star conspiracy witnesses who are seen in all the videos had long lives. Beverly Oliver is still alive. Malcolm Summers died on October 8, 2004, Ed Hoffman passed away in 2010. Jean Hill passed away on November 7, 2000. All three witnesses died after having decades to give their testimony to anybody who would listen, and not even their conspiracist supporters claim their deaths were sinister.

RC
But they tried to give testimony – and no one would listen. Or they were told that they were “mistaken”. They were told that they did not hear more than three shots or they did not see gunman behind the grassy knoll.

JM
If a conspiracy was going around killing people who knew things that were dangerous to it, it would make sense that all the key witnesses would be killed quickly. But Marrs’ list includes people who died as late as 1984. Given that many people associated with the assassination were at the peak of their professional careers at the time of the shooting, it’s not surprising that many of them would have died within twenty years.

RC
No, professor. What is surprising is that at least 81 died unnaturally (homicide, accident, suicide, unknown) in the 14 year period following the assassination and that the deaths spiked at convenient times.

Sixteen material witnesses died in 1964 during the Warren Commission. Another 22 died in 1977-1978 during the HSCA. Timing is everything.

JM
Marrs’ list is laced with people who have a larger than average chance of a violent death: law officers, people on the edges of the underworld (strippers), people very much part of the underworld (Mafia figures), and people with a clear history of alcohol or drug abuse, or of mental illness (Rose Cheramie, Lou Staples, George de Mohrenschildt).

RC
Strippers? Mental illness? Come on, John McAdams. You are really reaching now.

JM
About half the people on Marrs’ list died of natural causes. Marrs assures his readers that of course the CIA can kill people and make the death look “natural” (Crossfire, p. 556-557). This raises the question of why the conspirators allowed any of the deaths to seem violent or suspicious.

RC
Not true. Approximately 70% died of unnatural causes (homicide, suicide, accident,unknown). The rest were mostly heart attacks. John asks: why not induce them all with heart attacks? Hmm…

JM
In virtually every case, there is no evidence that the person had any information on the assassination not already given in Warren Commission testimony, statements to police and the media, and interviews with private researchers. The logic seems to be that they must have known something, since, after all, they were killed.

RC
But they did know something, that’s why they were called to testify – and that’s why they had to be eliminated.

JM
People who supported the Warren Commission version of events, or whose testimony was used by the Warren Commission to help convict Oswald, are well-represented on the list. Why would a conspiracy want to kill off those people?

RC
Testimony which exonerated Oswald and exposed the Single Bullet Theory was misrepresented or ignored by the WC. They wanted to insure the silence of these witnesses while at the same time intimidate others from talking.

JM
Many of these objections can be answered by positing on ongoing surveillance of witnesses. Maybe a witness, after many years of concealing the truth, has finally decided to go public and “blow the whistle.” Conspirators, learning of this, then proceed to kill the person. What’s wrong with this is obvious: it vastly complicates the problem discussed in 1. (above). For every witness who might potentially “spill the beans,” a team of conspiracy operatives must keep a close surveillance in order to catch the moment when the person decides to talk, and then promptly kill the witness. This would require an entire army of assassins!

RC
An entire army? Surely, you jest. A pro can do one hit a month.

JM
Marrs tries to argue for the sinister nature of his list by saying:” Of course, it is impossible to state with any certainty which of these deaths resulted from natural causes and which did not. . . The area of convenient deaths leads one into a well of paranoia, yet the long list of deaths cannot be summarily dismissed”.

Given the immensely large pool from which the hundred or so people on Marrs’ list are drawn, one of two things must be true. Either: (1) many hundreds or thousands of deaths have escaped Marrs’ notice, or (2) being associated with the Kennedy assassination is a guarantee of a very long life!

RC
Large pool? Read the “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”. There were approximately 1400 material witnesses, of whom at least 96 died unnaturally from 1964-1978. Go ahead John, figure the odds -if you can.

JM
Let’s Look at Specifics. The death of Lee Bowers seemed “strange” to Oliver Stone, Geraldo Rivera, and Jim Marrs. David Perry is an insurance investigator by profession, and an assassination buff by avocation. See what he concluded when he investigated this issue.

RC
Come on, John. Bowers was a witness to activity on the Grassy Knoll from his vantage point. Yes, a one-car crash is very strange.

JM
Another “mysterious” death was that of David Ferrie. Did he commit suicide to avoid being prosecuted for Kennedy’s murder by DA Garrison? Was he killed by minions of The Conspiracy? In this essay, Dr. Robert Artwohl discusses Jim Garrison’s contention that Ferrie died of an overdose of Proloid, a thyroid medication, and Garrison’s apparent mishandling of evidence. Ferrie left two supposed “suicide notes,” however on close inspection it’s not at all clear they are in fact suicide notes. The official autopsy produced a clear finding of natural death.

RC
Natural death? He was struck on the head causing a brain aneurysm. David Ferrie was murdered the day after he was released from protective custody. Just a coincidence?

JM
Eladio del Valle, a Cuban who died on the same night as David Ferrie, is another of those “mystery deaths.” Conspiracy books imply that he had all sorts of “links” to the assassination, but there are some other things about him that make his death seem not so mysterious. Click here for documents on del Valle. Conspiracy books never tell you, but the Dade County authorities indicted a man for del Valle’s murder. More information can be found on Gordon Winslow’s web site.

RC
Del Valle, an associate of Ferrie, was a prospective witness in the Clay Shaw trial. He just happened to die the same day as Ferrie by an axe to the skull. Coincidence?

JM
Dorothy Kilgallen, a reporter and quiz show personality, is always among those on the “mysterious deaths” lists. Supposedly, she was about to “blow the lid” off the conspiracy. In this essay, historian Eric Paddon does not discuss the circumstances of her death (which the medical examiner didn’t consider sinister), but rather the question of whether she actually knew anything that might threaten a supposed conspiracy. Had she learned something new about the assassination, or was she just repeating standard conspiracy buff stuff? How might Kilgallen have gotten critical information that would have allowed her to “blow” the conspiracy? According to Gary Wills and Ovid Demaris, (Jack Ruby, page 72):

Conspiratorialists of the wilder variety believe that Dorothy Kilgallen had a private interview [with Jack Ruby], one that caused her death. This tete-a-tete never took place: she leaned over the rail and talked to Jack in the open courtroom during a break in the proceedings. Lawyer Joe Tonahill, who hoped to collaborate with Miss Kilgallen on a book, arranged the brief exchange, and was present at it.

But the important thing, as John Leyden has pointed out, is that Kilgallen didn’t die “mysteriously” until 20 months after the interview. Darn patient reporter who can sit on a big story that long.

RC
In the book “Hit List”, there is a detailed chapter on Kilgallen. She was the only reporter who was granted an exclusive interview with Ruby in jail. She openly attacked the coverup in her New York Journal American columns on 2/2/64 and 9/3/65. She reported a meeting between Ruby, Tippit and a Texas oilman, revealed that Oswald was in too many places at one time, had links to U.S. intelligence and that Oswald’s true story was known to just a few government agents. She told her friends that in five days, she would “bust this case wide open”, but died on 11/8/65 shortly after returning from Dallas where she met with Ruby and had secret transcripts of his testimony. She was gathering information for a book “Murder One” and gave her notes and manuscripts to her friend Florence Pritchett Smith for safekeeping. Smith died within few days of Kilgallen. None of the manuscripts were recovered. How do you explain that? Just a coincidence?

JM
Colonel Daniel Marvin told an explosive story in the most recent installment of The Men Who Killed Kennedy. He claimed to have been asked by a CIA operative to kill a supposed autopsy witness named William B. Pitzer. If true, it’s hard evidence of a conspiracy “clean-up squad” killing witnesses. Researchers Robin Palmer and Allan Eaglesham have worked closely with Marvin, and have come to doubt his story. Their “Letter to Dr. J.D. Rose” lays out the details. Eaglesham, who initially believed the death was “suspicious,” has now concluded that it wasn’t. A diligent and honest researcher, he continued investigating even after reaching that conclusion, and that research solidified his view that the death was indeed a suicide.

RC
Not suspicious? A suicide? So we are to believe Pitzer decided to take his own life just before retiring with a good pension and lucrative job opportunities? Give us all a break, John. Have you no shame? 

http://www.spartacus-educational.com/JFKpitzerW.htm

JM
Umpteen Trillion to One Odds? The conspiracy literature occasionally still quotes a supposed study done by the London Sunday Times which found that “the odds against these [assassination] witnesses being dead by February 1967, were one hundred thousand trillion to one.” The House Select Committee on Assassinations asked the newspaper where they got that number. The paper replied with the following letter.

“The Editor has passed me your letter of 25th April. Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times’ editorial staff after the first edition — the one which goes to the United States and which I believe you have — had gone out, and later editions were amended.

There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong. It was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied — correctly — that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower. Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter — hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize.

None of the editorial staff involved in this story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material”.
Yours sincerely,
Antony Whitaker,
Legal Manager.
(4 HSCA 464-65)

RC
The actuary’s name is hardly material? In the film Executive Action we learned that the actuary determined that “In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

Well, the actuary was correct in calculating the 1 in 100,000 trillion probability. It is confirmed by applying the 0.000544 weighted mortality rate (calculated from the mix of 8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides, 3 heart attacks, 2 natural causes) and assuming 552 witnesses (same as the Warren Commission). Only one unnatural death would normally be expected, but there were at least 13. The spreadsheet probability calculation is:
P = Poisson (18,0.90, false) = 9.60E-18 (1 in 100,000 trillion)

But the actuary’s odds were conservative. He/she had an incomplete list of 18 witness deaths. In fact, there were at least 47 (45 were unnatural deaths, including 38 homicides). The probability is much lower assuming 1400 material witnesses.

JM
George de Mohrenschildt was one of Lee Oswald’s most interesting friends. His testimony before the Warren Commission said nothing that suggested a conspiracy, but in later years he started to give a much more “interesting” account. de Mohrenschildt’s suicide in 1977 has seemed quite “suspicious” to conspiracy buffs. The Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office Death Investigation on de Mohrenschildt’s passing is extremely detailed. See whether there is any evidence of murder.

RC
Sure John, de Morenschildt just happened to shoot himself the day he was to be interviewed by Gaeton Fonzi of HSCA. Just a coincidence? He had GW Bush’s phone number in his wallet. He was scared and wrote to Bush asking for help. How come you don’t mention that little factoid?

JM
John M. Crawford is yet another of those people on the “mystery deaths” lists. Did he really have the “connections” to Wes Frazier and Jack Ruby that conspiracy authors claim? See David Perry’s assessment of this case.

RC
According to Penn Jones, Jack Ruby carried John Crawford’s phone number in his pocket at all times.

JM
Roger Craig told a variety of “interesting” stories about the assassination, most of which clearly indicated a conspiracy. So it might seem quite logical that a conspiracy would want to silence him. And indeed Craig’s death at age 39 in 1975 by suicide (conspiracy books usually put quotes around “suicide”) might seem suspicious. But do the details of his death actually seem suspicious?

RC
They tried to kill Craig at least three times, so yes, John McAdams, I would say his “suicide” is very suspicious. But even if it was a suicide, why would he do it? For you to suggest that his death was not suspicious is quite disingenuous. But it does not diminish your credibility because you have none left. Roger Craig was a hero (RIP). He is interviewed by Mark Lane in this video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFEx8hjD8kE

JM
What happens when a real investigator (Jacqueline Hess of the House Select Committee) tackles the issue of “mysterious deaths” and enlists the services of people who specialize in working out the probability that any particular person will die in a year, or two, or ten? In other words, enlists the service of actuaries? Hess’ testimony before the House Select Committee outlines the results of her investigation.

RC
Hess is debunked using facts, logic and math. Her analysis was incomplete, misleading and incorrect. She never mentioned unnatural mortality rates which are fundamental in an analysis of homicides, suicides and accidental deaths – by definition.

I won’t dwell on McAdams lame explanations to try and refute the convenient deaths; his pattern of obfuscation is established. Why beat a dead horse? I will just note that he makes no attempt to even discuss the number of witnesses who died conveniently that were called to testify in four investigations. If McAdams (or the HSCA) had done the analysis and calculated the probabilities, obfuscation and disinformation would be impossible. After all, he has a reputation to protect.

JM
Let’s Just Think About This, OK?
Excerpted from “The Case of the Grassy Knoll: The Romance of Conspiracy” by John Kaplan; printed in The Historian As Detective, Winks, editor; originally published as “The Assassins” in Stanford Law Review (May 1967).
[Regarding the “mysterious” deaths of “witnesses” to the assassination], even the most cursory examination of the stories shows how essentially foolish they are. A good many of the deaths hardly seem mysterious in that they were caused by auto accidents, heart attacks, and other phenomena that afflict our entire population. Moreover, before we could tell whether the number of these deaths is in any way unusual, we would have to know the number of equally “mysterious” deaths that occurred to people completely unconnected with the WR. But even apart from any statistical refutation, the theory that a set of conspirators is now devoted to wiping out a host of unimportant witnesses is almost too silly to be put forth. There is not the slightest indication that any of the “victims” have had anything to tell that they had not already told, and indeed the deaths seem concentrated among those who bore only the most peripheral relation to the assassination. When one stops to consider that almost each one of the “mysterious” deaths requires the recruitment of at least one and often several new conspirators, it would seem that, like the pyramid club, the conspiracy would be getting bigger and bigger rather than smaller. One would think that in light of what had happened to those who knew too much it would get very difficult to recruit new members into the conspiracy. Most important, however, it is hard to say why the supposed killers are taking whatever chances these murders entail when it is so obvious that, whoever the conspirators are, they have already gotten off scot-free.

RC
McAdams cribs from a load of asinine talking points. As shown above, the relevance of the witnesses is a moot point. But that they were absolutely relevant is indisputable because a) they were important enough that at least 63 were called to testify in the four investigations. There were 49 unnatural deaths an E-51 probability. Even more astounding, seven (7) FBI officials died during a 6 month period in 1977 just prior to their HSCA testimony – a 1 in 114,000 TRILLION probability. That is very close to the actuary’s odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years. Now THAT is very relevant. It proves a conspiracy beyond any doubt. Of course, McAdams will disregard these facts, the logic and math, claiming it was all just a coincidence. John, consider yourself debunked.

Now let’s consider this, ok?

No one has come forward to refute the JFK-related witness unnatural death probabilities. McAdams could have called upon the mathematics faculty at Marquette University or any professional statistician, actuary or quantitative analyst. He has yet to do so. That says it all.

The reference text Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination includes 1400+ material witnesses.

Fifty material witness deaths are described in depth in Hit List: an In-Depth Investigation Into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination. All are in the JFK Calc spreadsheet database. The book includes my initial probability calculation for 15 unnatural deaths in the year following the assassination.

In John Simkin’s Index of 656 JFK-related individuals, 70 died suspiciously over the 15 year period from 1964-1978. Forty-four (44) deaths were unnatural, including 22 homicides. The probability of 44 unnatural deaths among the 656 is P= E-41 (one in one trillion trillion trillion). The probability of 22 homicides given the 0.000084 national homicide rate is P= 6.4E-24 (one in 150 billion trillion). If we triple the homicide rate (over 50 witnesses were from the Dallas area), the probability is P= 4.3E-14 (one in 23 trillion).

Based on mortality rates for causes of death, the statistical expectation is that approximately 26 of the 44 officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers were actually HOMICIDES, so that there were approximately 48 homicides among the 70 suspicious deaths. The probability of 48 homicides is less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion! https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/12/25/jfk-related-unnatural-and-suspicious-deaths-in-the-jfk-calc-spreadsheet-and-simkins-jfk-index/

My witness death analysis is referenced by Jim Marrs’ in his updated version of “Crossfire”. Marrs cites my rebuttal of HSCA and Bugliosi’s attempt to refute the London Times actuary. My work is also cited in Judyth Baker’s “David Ferrie” and Philip Nelson’s “LBJ: From Mastermind to Colossus”.

 
11 Comments

Posted by on July 8, 2013 in JFK

 

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JFK Witness Deaths: Calculating the Probabilities

JFK Witness Deaths: A Guide to the Probability Calculations

Richard Charnin
May 27, 2013
Updated: Oct.15, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

An actuary engaged by London Sunday Times calculated 100,000 TRILLION to 1 odds against 18 JFK material witness deaths from Nov. 1963 to Feb. 1967. Unfortunately, the actuary could not be identified and interviewed since no one at the Sunday Times could recall his or her name.

The House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) claimed that the number of material witnesses was unknowable and dismissed the calculation as invalid. But exactly 552 Warren Commission witnesses testified, a subset of approximately 1400 material witnesses.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

In fact, the actuary’s odds are conservative. There were at least 42 unnatural witness deaths in the three years following the assassination. Assuming 1400 material witnesses, the probability is ZERO.

The JFK Witness Spreadsheet Database includes 118 material witnesses, of which there were at least 83 unnatural deaths. The sensitivity analysis tables display unnatural death probabilities for 552 Warren Commission and 1400 material witnesses (based on unnatural, weighted and homicide mortality rates) over 1,3 and 14 year time intervals.

According to the reference Who’s Who In the JFK Assassination approximately 1400 material witnesses were connected in any way to the assassination. At least 83 died unnaturally. The probability is ZERO.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming there were 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.00006 average homicide rate, the probability of 24 homicides within three years following the assassination is 1 in 12 billion. So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

The unweighted unnatural rate results in virtually ZERO probabilities. But since the JFK-related deaths were mostly homicides, the weighted average rate is a theoretically superior rate to use for the probability calculations – and results in significantly lower probabilities than the unweighted (national) rate. But even the weighted rate is too high, since many witness “suicides” and “accidental” deaths were clearly homicides. If all of the unnatural deaths were in fact homicides, the probabilities are at their lowest.

The unweighted unnatural mortality rate produces virtually zero probabilities for both the Warren Commission (552) and material witness (1400) groups, so it may appear to be overkill to use the lower weighted average and homicide rates to calculate the probabilities. But they illustrate 1) the implausible ratio of homicides in the total witness mix, and 2) the inflating effects of “suicides” and “accidental” deaths in the probability calculations.

At least 62 of the 118 witnesses in the database testified or died suspiciously shortly before they were due to testify at the 1964 Warren Commission, 1969 Garrison/Shaw trial, the 1975 Senate Intelligence hearings and the 1977 HSCA (including 7 top FBI officials in June-November 1977). There were at least 37 unnatural and suspicious deaths of approximately 1100 witnesses who were called to testify. The probability is 4.7E-30 (1 in 200,000 MILLION TRILLION TRILLION).

The HSCA made the following errors:
1) misstated the actuary’s method of calculation
2) Did not consider that there were over 80 unnatural and at least 30 other suspicious deaths
3) did not consider suspicious deaths of HSCA witnesses (including 7 FBI) just prior to their scheduled testimony
4) did not run a sensitivity analysis of probabilities for various data assumptions
5) ignored unnatural mortality rates in calculating the probability of unnatural deaths
6) did not use the POISSON distribution function to calculate probabilities
7) did not calculate probability of 11 WC homicides in 15 years.
8) ignored the fact that the JFK homicide rate far exceeded the national rate
9) did not calculate the ZERO probability of at least unnatural deaths among 1,400 witnesses (1964-78)
10) did not calculate probability of 25 homicides in three years for the impossible 25,000 witnesses the FBI claimed to have interviewed

The HSCA succeeded in misinforming the public by falsely claiming that the actuary’s calculation was invalid and therefore did not prove a conspiracy.

The Poisson Distribution calculates the probabilities of rare events over time.

The key to calculating the probability of a given number (n) of unnatural deaths occurring in a given group (N) in a given time period (T) is to recognize that it is based on the difference between expected and actual unnatural deaths. The larger the discrepancy between the actual observed and expected number of deaths, the lower the probability.

These are the relevant probability input parameters:
n= number of observed unnatural deaths
N= total number of witnesses
T= time period in years
R= unnatural mortality rate

The expected number of unnatural deaths E = N*T*R

 
6 Comments

Posted by on May 15, 2013 in JFK, Media

 

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Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary

Richard Charnin
Feb. 25, 2013
Updated: June 11, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. Burt Lancaster and Robert Ryan, who played CIA operatives involved in the plot, were resisted in their efforts to have the film made by mainstream Hollywood producers. The movie reveals how Kennedy’s progressive agenda and peace initiatives were a threat to the establishment. He refused to invade Cuba, was seeking detente with the Soviet Union, planned to pull all troops out of Viet Nam by 1965, break up the CIA, eliminate the Federal Reserve and promoted the civil rights movement. Congress passed the Test Ban Treaty a few months before the assassination. In other words, he was doing his job.

At the end of the film, it was revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the odds of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination. as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

“In the three-year period which followed the murder of President Kennedy and Lee Harvey Oswald, 18 material witnesses died – six by gunfire, three in motor accidents, two by suicide, one from a cut throat, one from a karate chop to the neck, three from heart attacks and two from natural causes”.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin.

The London Sunday Times
There has been much controversy about the actuary’s calculation. Apparently, no one at the Sunday Times even recalls the actuary’s name. And even more strange, the Times legal manager did not provide the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) the actuary’s calculation assumptions or methodology. He claimed that the problem was not clearly defined. The HSCA compounded the obfuscation when their statistician claimed that the witness universe was unknowable and therefore the calculation was not valid.

In a response to a letter from the HSCA in 1977, London Sunday Times Legal Manager Anthony Whitaker wrote: Our piece about the odds against the deaths of the Kennedy witnesses was, I regret to say, based on a careless journalistic mistake and should not have been published. This was realized by The Sunday Times editorial staff after the first edition – the one which goes to the United States – had gone out, and later editions were amended.

There was no question of our actuary having got his answer wrong: it was simply that we asked him the wrong question. He was asked what were the odds against 15 named people out of the population of the United States dying within a short period of time to which he replied -correctly – that they were very high. However, if one asks what are the odds against 15 of those included in the Warren Commission Index dying within a given period, the answer is, of course, that they are much lower.

Our mistake was to treat the reply to the former question as if it dealt with the latter – hence the fundamental error in our first edition report, for which we apologize. None of the editorial staff involved in the story can remember the name of the actuary we consulted, but in view of what happened, you will, I imagine, agree that his identity is hardly material.

The actuary’s identity was hardly material? It was and still is very material. No one on the editorial staff remembered his name? Really? And we are supposed to believe that? Only the actuary could explain his interpretation of the problem and method of calculation. Those statements made no sense; nothing else the Times legal manager said should have been taken at face value.

In fact, Whitaker misrepresented what is essentially a simple mathematical problem: to determine the probability of a given number of unnatural deaths over relevant time interval within a given population group.

His first error was to provide an incomplete and misleading statement of the problem. The U.S. population is not relevant; the number of JFK-related witnesses is. The “short period of time” is not specific. He misrepresented the essential goal of the probability analysis by not considering the frequency of unnatural deaths.

His second error was one of omission. Unnatural death mortality statistics and probability calculations used by the actuary were not provided to the HSCA. Was it because they would show that the calculation was plausible and essentially correct?

Whitaker claimed that he asked the actuary to calculate the probability that 15 names included in the Warren Commission Index would die within a “short” period. One must assume that the actuary assumed unnatural deaths and utilized corresponding unnatural mortality rate(s) in his calculation. Even if the Times editor did not specify unnatural deaths, it does not follow that the actuary was oblivious to the distinction.

In fact, the actuary’s calculation was confirmed assuming 552 witnesses, the number who testified at the Warren Commission. Is it just a coincidence that at least 30 Warren Commission witnesses (listed in the JFK Calc database with links to their testimony) died unnaturally and/or suspiciously or that scores of others died mysteriously at convenient times just before they were due to give testimony at the Garrison/Shaw trial, Church hearings and HSCA?

It is important to re-emphasize that Whitaker said not a word about unnatural deaths. In any case, his response settled the matter. The HSCA’s designated “statistical expert” just added to Whitaker’s obfuscation.

HSCA Obfuscation
In her HSCA testimony, statistical expert Jacqueline Hess dismissed the actuary’s odds as being invalid, claiming that it was “unsolvable”. Hess said she consulted with actuarial experts who told her “you cannot establish any kind of universe” of material witnesses. This was pure disinformation. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/jfkinfo2/jfk4/hess.htm.

The claim that the odds were impossible to calculate was a ruse, just like the Single Bullet Theory (SBT).

The 552 Warren Commission witnesses is a KNOWN UNIVERSE. At least 30 died suspiciously from 1964-78. Fourteen (14) deaths were RULED unnatural: 4 homicides, 6 accidents and 4 suicides. Just one or two would normally have been expected based on UNNATURAL MORTALITY RATES.. The probability of 14 RULED UNNATURAL deaths is 7E-07 (1 in 1.4 MILLION). But the 10 “suicides” and “accidents” were LIKELY homicides. The probability of 14 HOMICIDES is 3.9E-14 (1 in 25 TRILLION).

The 552 Warren Commission witnesses IS a subset of the approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses named in the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data: 552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 20 unnatural deaths, published mortality rates and use of the Poisson probability function. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

Hess conveniently left out scores of mysterious, unnatural deaths in her list of 21 witnesses. She noted five that were questionable. But even the “natural” deaths were suspicious. For example, Jack Ruby died just before his second trial, 29 days after being diagnosed with cancer. He claimed that he was injected with a virus. Thomas Howard, Ruby’s lawyer, died of a heart attack at age 53 in March 1965. There was no autopsy. Howard met with two reporters, Jim Koethe and Bill Hunter, in Ruby’s apartment on Nov. 24, 1963. The reporters were murdered. All three died within 16 months of the meeting.

Hess did not include David Ferrie and Eladio del Valle. David Ferrie supposedly had a brain aneurysm that was ruled a suicide – the day after his release from protective custody. He had just been named as a witness by New Orleans D.A. Garrison in the Clay Shaw trial. Ferrie associate del Valle was also sought by Garrison. He was murdered on Feb. 21, the same day as Ferrie.

Hess neglected every one of the 20 deaths of prospective HSCA witnesses! She gave a convoluted excuse in response to a question as to why she did not include George De Morenschildt, Oswald’s close friend (and intelligence operative) who allegedly shot himself the day he was notified that he was to be interviewed by HSCA. Nor did she mention the seven (7) high level FBI officials who died within a six-month period in 1977 – just before they were due to testify at HSCA. The probability is ZERO. Apparently, HSCA-related deaths were immaterial. But as mentioned above, even her list of 21 witnesses in the 1964-1967 period did not include at least 25 others.

Hess claimed that the actuary concluded that on 11/22/63 the odds of 15 witnesses being dead in three years was 1 in 10 to the 29th power (1 in 10,000 TRILLION TRILLION). That is obviously an incorrect statement. The actuary calculated the odds as 1 in 100,000 trillion (1 in 10 to the 17th power). He presumably used the Poisson probability function of rare events – the perfect mathematical tool for the problem (see below). One in 100,000 trillion is E-17, or 0.0000000000000001. Hess appears to have been anything but a “statistical expert” otherwise she would have done the calculations herself.

In spite of their efforts, the HSCA was forced in a “limited hangout” to conclude that both the JFK and Martin Luther King murders were conspiracies. Acoustic evidence indicated a 96% probability that at least four shots were fired. At least one came from the grassy knoll, indicating at least two shooters. That should have closed the book on the Warren Commission’s physically impossible, irrational Magic Bullet Theory. But the 50-year old myth is still presented as gospel by the mainstream media and overwhelming scientific ballistic, acoustic, video, medical, eyewitness and mathematical evidence of suspicious deaths is ignored.

The HSCA noted just 21 witness deaths. http://www.cassiopaea.org/cass/jfkdeaths.htm

These tables and graphs prove a conspiracy beyond any doubt: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

Bugliosi’s Calculation

Famed prosecutor Vincent Bugliosi tried to refute the actuary in his book Reclaiming History: The Assassination of President John F. Kennedy. He cited Robert M. Musen, vice president and senior actuary at Metropolitan Life Insurance Company. Musen calculated the odds of 15 people out of 2,479 in the Warren Commission Index dying within a three-year period, assuming a median age of 40, to be 98.16%.

But there are two major problems with Musen’s calculation.
1- The index includes names of individuals who had no connection whatsoever to the assassination, such as George Washington and many others. Only 552 witnesses testified in person or by deposition.

2- Musen did not consider unnatural deaths. Even assuming an inflated 2479 witnesses, approximately 7 unnatural deaths would be expected over a three year period.

So how did the actuary calculate the probability? If he/she assumed 459 witnesses, then given 18 deaths (8 homicides, 3 accidents, 2 suicides, 3 heart attacks, 2 natural causes) and the 0.000207 total weighted mortality rate, the probability is 9.96E-18 or 1 in 100,000 trillion.

In fact, there were at least 47 suspicious deaths in the three years following the assassination. The actuary did not include Oswald and Ruby – and at least 20 others. The JFK witness spreadsheet database shows that at least 42 of the 47 deaths were unnatural (homicide, accident, suicide, unknown).

Using the .000831 unweighted unnatural death rate, the odds that at least 47 would die unnaturally within 3 years is E-25 or 1 in 10 trillion trillion.

The JFK Calc spreadsheet database consists of 122 material witnesses who died unnaturally or suspiciously from 1964-78. Researchers claim there were many more. Of the 122, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown). The other deaths were a combination of suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers and unknown causes.

But a statistical analysis of expected deaths for various causes indicates there were actually close to 90 homicides (the number of officially ruled deaths by accident, suicide and heart attack far exceeded the expectation).

The probability of 34 OFFICIAL RULED HOMICIDES among 1400 JFK-related individuals from 1964-78 is 1.57E-31 =1 in 6 million trillion trillion using the average 0.000084 homicide rate.

The probability of 78 OFFICIAL RULED UNNATURAL DEATHS is ZERO:
P= E-62= 1/trillion^5 = ZERO using the JFK-weighted average unnatural rate.
P= E-27= 1/trillion^2 = ZERO using the unweighted national average unnatural rate.

Another way of looking at it is to ask how many unnatural deaths were required in the 15 year period (assuming 1400 material witnesses) to obtain a probability of less than 1% (beyond a reasonable doubt). The answer is 30. As the number of deaths increase, the probability rapidly approaches ZERO. But there were over 80.

In 1964-78, there were at least 67 deaths of approximately 1100 material witnesses who were called to testify at the Warren Commission, Clay Shaw trial, Church Senate Committee and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Given that 28 deaths were homicides, the probability is 2.3E-26 (1 in 40 TRILLION TRILLION).

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were 25,000 witnesses interviewed without providing a list. How many were material? Only about 1400. But even assuming 25,000, the probability of at least 26 homicides in three years is 1 in 490 BILLION. So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate that claim, they must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005124.html

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000 (0.000062 is used in the homicide probability calculation).

There were different categories of witnesses: 1) 121 eyewitnesses who gave depositions to the FBI (51 said the shots came from the area of the Grassy Knoll, 32 from the Texas Book Depository, 38 were unsure), 2) witnesses called by the 1964 Warren Commission, 3) Jim Garrison/Clay Shaw trial, 4) Senate Intelligence (Church) Committee, 5) House Select Committee (HSCA) and 6) 1400+ JFK-related witnesses.

The timings of the deaths make it all the more suspicious. At least 22 died within one year of the assassination (Warren Commission). At least 16 died in 1977 (including SEVEN FBI officials) just before they were due to testify at HSCA. Using this information, we can calculate probabilities of these unnatural, suspicious deaths for each witness category.

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation Into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination is a comprehensive study of 50 deaths by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (published April 2013).

The mathematical analysis of the scores of suspicious, unnatural deaths related to the assassination is further proof of a conspiracy – beyond any doubt. This is a comprehensive spreadsheet database of suspicious unnatural witness deaths, probability calculations, Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial and HSCA witnesses. A plausible universe of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses is presented in the Who’s Who in the Kennedy Assassination reference.

Mark Lane debunked the Warren Commission in his book and film: Rush to Judgment.

The Poisson Probability Distribution

The expected number N of unnatural deaths in time period T is approximated by a simple formula: N = R * W * T, where R is the unnatural mortality rate, W the number of witnesses and T the number of years in the study.

The Poisson function is useful for calculating the probability that a certain number of rare events will occur over a specified period of time. For instance, the probability that 10 customers will walk into a store from 10-11 am, given an average arrival rate of 5 per hour for that time period. Or that 2 accidents will occur at a busy intersection next month, given an average of 1 per month.

In the JFK analysis, the Poisson function is used to calculate the probability that a number of witnesses would die unnaturally (suicide, murder, accident, unknown cause, etc.) over various time periods. Historical mortality statistical tables show that the average 1964-78 unnatural death rate R is approximately 0.000822.

The Poisson probability function is:
P(n) = a^n * exp(-a)/n!
where a = the expected number of unnatural deaths = R*N*T

Key witness categories
1 Unnatural deaths vs. suspicious natural deaths 1964-78
2 Investigation witnesses sought: Warren, Garrison, Church, HSCA (1100 est)
3 Investigation witnesses who died in 1964-78 (67)
4 Approximate number of JFK-related witnesses (1400+)
5 Eyewitnesses (121)

– The unnatural death rate is used in the analysis.
– ZERO probability of unnatural deaths in all categories.
– 51 Warren Commission eyewitnesses claimed that the shots came from the Grassy Knoll, 32 from the Texas Schoolbook Depository and 38 had no opinion: http://spot.acorn.net/jfkplace/09/fp.back_issues/12th_Issue/51_wits.html
Their recollections were dismissed by the Warren Commission as simply being “mistaken”. Parkland Hospital doctors initially reported entrance wounds to the neck and head which were confirmed years later in the Zapruder film.

Ruby’s Visitors

Ruby shot Oswald on Nov. 24, 1963. But how many know that three people who met in Ruby’s apartment that day died within one year, two unnaturally and one naturally.
– Bill Hunter, a reporter, shot by a policeman in April 1964 – ruled an accident.
– Tim Koethe, another reporter, was killed in Sept. 1964 by a blow to the neck.
– Tom Howard, Ruby’s first lawyer, died from a heart attack in March 1965.
The probability of the three deaths in one year: 1 in 300 million!

7 Mysterious FBI Witness Deaths

In 1977, seven top FBI officials died in a six month period just before they were scheduled to testify at the House Select Committee on Assassinations(HSCA).
. William Sullivan- Head of counter/espionage. Predicted death. Hunting accident.
. James Cadigan- Document expert; previously testified to WC. Accidental fall.
. Regis Kennedy- Heart attack the day he was to testify.
. Louis Nichols- Former #3, worked on JFK investigation. Heart attack
. Alan Belmont- Liaison to Warren Commission; Long illness.
. Donald Kaylor Fingerprint expert. Heart attack.
. J.M. English- Head of Forensic Sciences Lab. Heart attack.

Suspicious Timing of Other Witness Deaths

Jack Ruby died in Jan, 1967, just 28 days after being diagnosed with cancer in prison. He claimed that he was injected with cancer cells. In this press conference, Ruby claimed a government conspiracy to murder JFK.
Ruby: “Everything pertaining to what’s happening has never come to the surface. The world will never know the true facts, of what occurred, my motives. The people had- that had so much to gain and had such an ulterior motive for putting me in the position I’m in, will never let the true facts come above board to the world.”
Reporter: “Are these people in very high positions Jack?”
Ruby: “Yes.”

In Feb. 1967, David Ferrie was found dead in his apartment shortly after he was named as a defendant by New Orleans D.A. Jim Garrison in the Clay Shaw trial. Ferrie was an associate of Oswald, Shaw, Guy Banister and anti-Castro Cubans. Ferrie left two suicide notes. He was held in protective custody until Feb. 21, 1967 and was found dead in his apartment the next day.

Ferrie associate Eladio del Valle was also sought by Garrison. He was murdered on Feb. 21 by gunshot and struck in the head by an axe.

Guy Banister, an ex-FBI agent with ties to Ferrie and Oswald, died in 1964, supposedly from a heart attack.

Maurice Gatlin was also sought by Garrison. He was a pilot who worked for Guy Banister, an ex-FBI agent in New Orleans connected to Ferrie, CIA, Carlos Marcello and Oswald. Gatlin died in a fall from the 6th floor after suffering a “heart attack”. The death was ruled an accident.

Clay Shaw denied he was CIA and was acquitted. He died a few years later from sudden cancer. There was no autopsy. CIA Director Richard Helms later admitted under oath that Shaw was a CIA contractor.

The following individuals were sought by the HSCA. All died unnaturally. Once again, the probability is ZERO…
– Charles Nicoletti, mob hit man and possible JFK shooter, was found dead from gunshots the day before he was scheduled to be contacted.
– John Paisley, Deputy Director of the CIA, was “about to blow the whistle” (shotgun ruled suicide).
– George DeMohrenschildt, a friend of Oswald with CIA contacts, had previously testified at the Warren Commission. He was found dead the day before he was scheduled to be contacted (shotgun ruled a suicide).
– Johnny Roselli, a powerful Mafia figure, was found in a drum off the coast of Miami. He told investigative reporter Jack Anderson that Ruby was ordered to silence Oswald and testified before the Senate.

Data Sources
The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson, presents vital information on each of more than 1,400 individuals (from suspects to witnesses to investigators) related in any way to the murder of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963. Based on years of research, it uses a wealth of data sources and a detailed analysis of the Warren Commission’s twenty-six volumes. The volume includes entries on virtually all suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators involved in the assassination.

In Crossfire assassination researcher Jim Marrs lists 103 individuals related to the assassination who died mysteriously from 1963-1978. Lee Harvey Oswald is not on the list but should be.

Warren Commission apologists who troll the online forums jump through illogical hoops in their attempts to debunk the probability calculations. But their arguments just prove the case for conspiracy. They agree that the math is correct, but argue that the data is invalid. They claim that the 1400+ witnesses and scores of unlikely deaths were self-selected and not a random group. Of course it is not a random group – by definition. That is precisely the point.

Witnesses who were called to testify before the 1964 Warren Commission, the 1969 Clay Shaw trial and the 1977 HSCA investigation were obviously not self-selected. Neither were the 1400 in the “Who’s Who” reference; they were all related in some way to the JFK assassination – suspects, victims, witnesses, law enforcement officials and investigators. It is not just a coincidence that an impossible number of them died unnaturally. There are only a few dozen that were missed in the “Who’s Who”, but even some of these died unnaturally. The only rational conclusion is that the JFK-related witnesses had information that would lead to the perpetrators.

There were at least 122 suspicious deaths among an estimated 1400 JFK material witnesses. At least 78 were ruled unnatural: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown. Given the 1964-1978 national average unnatural mortality rate, 17 unnatural deaths would be expected. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is ZERO But how many “accidents”, “suicides” and suspicious “natural” deaths were actually homicides? The probabilities would be lower still.

The reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination describes approximately 1400 individuals who were related in any way to the assassination; 95 are included in JFK Calc But the other witnesses that are not included in Who’s Who are very relevant.

It is important to note that the 1964-78 average homicide rate (1 in 12,000) was much lower than accidental deaths (1 in 1,600) and suicides (1 in 7,700). An analysis comparing unnatural JFK witness deaths to the expected number is not nearly as dramatic as comparing homicides. Nationally, homicides comprised 10% of unnatural deaths. But there were 34 ruled homicides among the 78 unnatural deaths (44%). If the analysis was restricted to homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and more powerful.

Unnatural Official Deaths; National Average Rates (1964-78)
Homicide (34): 0.000084 (1 in 12,000)
Accident (24): 0.000594 (1 in 1,600)
Suicide (16): 0.000130 (1 in 7,700)
Unknown (4): 0.000014 (1 in 100,000)

Natural Death Rates
Heart Disease (25): 0.004913 (1 in 200)
Cancer: (6) 0.001991 (1 in 500)
Other: (13) 0.004461 (1 in 1000)
Total (44): 0.010197 (1 in 100)

 
7 Comments

Posted by on February 25, 2013 in JFK

 

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Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Richard Charnin
May 25, 2012
Updated: Dec.8, 2015

Links to WEB/Blog Posts

Look inside the books:
– Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
– Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
–  Proving Election Fraud

It’s an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. The mainstream media and their cadre of online gatekeepers and trolls use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (CT) as a derogatory label for those who seek the truth. According to these disinformationists, there is no proof of conspiracies.

But they  avoid factual analysis based on the scientific evidence and can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg and others claim that they have been ordered not to write about 9/11. This has not been reported by the corporate media, proving their point.

A pathetic article by world-class coincidence theorist and disinformationist Michael Shermer appeared in Scientific American. Who would expect a respected magazine to print this? Check out the comments from readers. Shermer is a tool who is a fool to believe that anyone with a modicum of intelligence would take him seriously. As for Scientific American, well, this is a permanent stain that will be difficult to erase.

These myths are promoted non-stop in the mainstream media.
– Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.
– Bush won Florida in 2000 and had a 3 million “mandate” in 2004.
– Nineteen Muslims armed with box cutters who could not fly a Cessna, hijacked four airliners and outfoxed the entire U.S. defense establishment  while Bin Laden was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

Scientific notation is necessary to express the extremely low probabilities of the following events. For example, the probability P that at least 23 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the JFK assassination is 7.3E-40 in scientific notation (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion).

To put the numbers in context: There are an estimated 300 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. There are an estimated 700 thousand trillion (7E17) grains of sand on earth or 7 followed by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

The probability calculations are based on the Normal, Binomial and Poisson distribution functions.

The Normal Distribution (ND) is based on a sample of observations defined by the mean (average) value and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of the observations from the mean). The ND is used to calculate the probability that Kerry’s unadjusted 51.7% National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) share would deviate 3.4% from his 48.3% recorded national share.

The Binomial Distribution (BD) is used to calculate the probability P of n successes in N trials when the probability p of a success is constant in each trial. The BD is used to calculate the probability P that n= 86 of N=88 DRE voting machines would flip votes from Kerry to Bush.

The Poisson Distribution (PD) is used to calculate the probability P that a given number n of events with low probability will occur over a period of time. The PD is used to calculate the probability P that at least n=78 JFK-related individuals out of a population of N=1400 witnesses would die unnaturally in the T=15 years following the assassination.

Executive action: JFK witness-deaths Probability analysis
The probability analysis is straightforward; it’s not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of a conspiracy based on factual data: number of witnesses, number of unnatural (murder, accident, suicide, unknown) deaths, corresponding mortality rates and the time period. The Poisson function calculates the probability. The average U.S. 1964-78 unnatural mortality rate was 0.000818. The average JFK witness mortality rate (0.000247) was lower due to the high proportion of homicides compared to suicides and accidents.

In the 1973 film Executive Action it was revealed that an actuary hired by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability that 18 material witnesses would die within three years of the assassination as 100,000 trillion to one.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the database of witnesses, the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula. This is a spreadsheet database of witnesses and probability calculations.

Probabilities of Material Witness Deaths

Warren Commission Witnesses (1964-78):
– 15 official ruled unnatural deaths

There were 3 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 4 suicides, 6 accidents, 1 unknown. Given the 0.000295 weighted average mortality rate, the probability is P= 5.08E-08 (1 in 20 million)

– 21 unofficial actual unnatural deaths
There were 17 homicides, 2 accidents, 1 suicide, 1 unknown. Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected. Given the 0.000131 weighted rate, the probability is:
P = 3.65E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.08, false)
P = 1 in 27 million trillion

This graph shows the long-term trend in the U.S. homicide rate. In 1963 the homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000.

Deaths by Major Causes: 1960-2011 Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. The average homicide rate for 1964-1978 was 8.4 per 100,000.

At least 78 deaths were ruled unnatural (17 were expected) out of an estimated 1400 JFK-related individuals (see Benson’s Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination). The probability is based on the JFK-weighted unnatural death rate (0.000247):
P = 2.8E-62 = Poisson (78, 15*1400*0.000247, false)
P = 1 in a TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION TRILLION.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Election Fraud Probability Analysis

To believe election fraud is just a conspiracy theory, you must believe that

1. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS) indication that 86 of 88 DRE voting machines in various states flipped votes from Kerry to Bush was just a coincidence. The probability P is calculated as:
P = 1E-23 = Binomdist (86, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (87, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (88, 88, .5, false) or
P = 1 in 79 billion trillion

2. In the 1988-2008 elections,  massive  percentage discrepancies between the average recorded vote (48D-46R) and the 274 unadjusted state and national exit polls (52D-42R) were not significant. The True Vote Model (TVM) was incorrect although it confirmed the polls.

2.  There was nothing suspicious in the red shift of 2008 unadjusted exit polls in 36 states to the GOP beyond the margin of error (MoE) to McCain in the recorded vote. The probability is
P = 2.4E-39 = Poisson(36,.025*50,false) or
P = 1 in 400 trillion trillion trillion!

3. In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, there was nothing suspicious in the fact that 232 (85%) of the 274 state exit polls red-shifted to the Republican. Normally, an even split (137) would be expected. The probability is: P = 4.7E-39 or 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion!

4. There was nothing suspicious in the probability that at least 55 of 57 state elections would flip from the Democrats in the unadjusted exit polls to the Republicans in the recorded vote:
P = 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P = 1.1E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

5. In the 1988-2008 elections, there was nothing suspicious in the 8% discrepancy between the 274 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate (52D-42R) and the recorded votes (48D-46R). There were 375,000 exit poll respondents. Assuming a conservative 1.2% margin of error, the probability is
P = Normdist(.52,.48,.012/1.96,false) = 3.51E-08 or 1 in 28 million.

6. It was just a coincidence that the exit poll margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 131 of the 274 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 4 for the Democrat. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in any state is 1 in 20. Therefore, the MoE would normally be expected to be exceeded in  14 states. The  probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 131 of 274 state exit polls in favor of the Republican is
P = 3.7E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=15

Microbiologist Mystery Deaths
The unnatural deaths of 16 world-class microbiologists (8 homicides) in the four months (0.33 year) following 9/11 and the anthrax scare cannot be coincidental. Assuming 10,000 world-class microbiologists, the probability of 16 unnatural deaths in 4 months is:
P = Poisson(16,0.33*.0002*10000,false) or P= 1 in 30 trillion.
Assuming 100,000 microbiologists, P= 1 in 1000
.

Eight International Bank Executives Mystery Deaths in Jan. 2014
This is a probability sensitivity analysis over a range of 5,000-500,000 bank execs: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFRYUERxNDkwNGRlZkVndkc5TWFXREE&usp=drive_web#gid=0

Mysterious-deaths of 125 scientists, 75 bankers and 11 Holistic Doctors

9/11 Scientific Evidence vs. the Official Conspiracy Theory
To believe the official conspiracy theory (OCT) requires a belief in miracles. It requires cognitive dissonance of obvious explosive (WTC1 and WTC2) and symmetric (WTC7) destruction.

This group of professionals is dedicated to uncovering the truth about 9/11. http://www.consensus911.org/

Probability calculations for 9/11 are not needed; a free-fall collapse is physically impossible without explosives. Ask Isaac Newton. Office fires burn at 2000 degrees below the temperatures required to melt steel. Not one steel-framed building has ever collapsed due to fires, before or since 9/11. The probability is ABSOLUTE ZERO based on historical facts and Newtonian physics.

NIST claims that office fires caused 3 steel-framed buildings to collapse at near free-fall – a clear refutation of Newton’s Laws of Motion.
– Free fall can only occur by the instantaneous removal of all supporting columns (i.e. a controlled demolition).
– Lateral ejection of debris can only occur from explosions – not fires.
– Jet fuel burns 1500 degrees lower than required to melt steel.
– No steel-framed office buildings have ever collapsed due to fires.

CNN reporter Barbara Olson was a passenger on AA Flight 11 (which allegedly crashed into the Pentagon). She called husband Solicitor General Ted Olson from her cell phone and told him hijackers were armed with knives and box cutters.
– It was later disclosed that cell phones could not work at 30,000 feet.
– Olson then said that she called from a seatback phone. But according to an American Airlines spokesman, there were no seatback phones on Boeing 757 airliners.
– At the 2006 Moussaoui trial, the FBI reported there was one attempted call that lasted zero seconds (“unconnected”)from Barbara Olson to Ted Olson.

The BBC reported that WTC 7 collapsed at 5pm, 20 minutes before happened.
– How did the reporter know that it would collapse? Was she psychic?
– All fires burned out long before 5pm.
– Silverstein, the owner, said “pull it”.

and there is much more…

A believer of the official conspiracy theory (OCT) must ask explain how…

– William Rodriguez, a WTC janitor, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony would be ignored by the 9/11 commission.
– The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
– The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
– NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
– NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
– There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.

– Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions.
– Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
– Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
– At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

– The passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
– There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
– Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
– Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11.
– 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.

– There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11.
– Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
– Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
– There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
– There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.

April Gallop was working at the Pentagon and never saw a plane.

Barbara Honegger presents a detailed analysis of the Pentagon scam:
http://townhallseattle.org/911-truth-seattle-barbara-honegger-behind-the-smoke-curtain/

This is what a retired general in charge of intelligence had to say:

 
17 Comments

Posted by on May 26, 2012 in JFK

 

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