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2016 Pre-election Polls in 16 Battleground states were biased for Clinton

Richard Charnin
Sept.15, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

In 16 battleground states, Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%, a 2.1% margin. Clinton led the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%, a 0.4% margin. There was a 2.5% discrepancy between the polls and  corresponding recorded votes.

In 10 final National Polls, Clinton led 46.8-43.6%, a 3.2% margin. She won the National recorded vote by 48.3-46.2%, a 2.1% margin.

The 4.6% difference between the  2.5%  battleground margin discrepancy and the 2.1% national recorded margin is an indicator that the pre-election polls were biased for the Democrats. It is further evidence of election fraud.

When undecided voters are allocated (UVA), Trump leads the 16-poll average by 46.6-45.3%. The Gallup National Voter affiliation survey (40Ind-32Dem-28Rep) was the basis used to derive each state’s Party-ID. Trump leads by 48.9-43.1% with these adjustments.

Clinton won the 16 unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%, a 1.8% margin.

Summary of 16 Battleground states:
Unweighted averages:
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 44.5-44.1%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 46.6-45.3%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.9-43.1%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.4-45.6%

Weighted averages (56.8 million votes):
Trump won the recorded vote by 48.4-46.1%.
Clinton won the pre-election polls by 45.0-44.7%.
Trump won the UVA-adjusted polls by 47.0-45.7%.
Trump won the Gallup Party-ID adjusted polls by 48.5-43.9%.
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 47.5-46.1%

Battleground Exit poll discrepancies:
Recorded vote:3.9%; UVA:3.1%; Pre-election polls:1.4%; Gallup:7.6%
UVA: Undecided Voter Allocation: Trump won the recorded vote by 48.0-45.9%.

Trump likely won the national vote by 48-44% (5 million votes).

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/08/28/2016-true-vote-models-in-confirmation-party-id-and-returning-2012-voters/

Real Clear Politics (RCP)is the data source for the pre-election polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/state/

View the data and calculations for the 16 state polls, recorded votes, unadjusted exit polls and undecided voters: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=1579502018

 Trump Pre-elect UVA Recorded Exit polls
True Vote
AZ 46.3 48.3 48.1 46.9 50.7
CO 40.4 44.3 43.3 41.5 48.9
FL 46.6 48.1 48.6 46.4 48.0
GA 49.2 50.0 50.5 48.2 52.6
IA 44.3 47.6 51.2 48.0 52.1
ME 39.5 44.5 44.9 40.2 48.6
MI 42.0 45.4 47.3 46.8 47.1
MN 39.0 40.8 44.9 45.8 46.5
MO 50.3 52.0 56.4 51.2 51.4
NV 45.8 47.2 45.5 42.8 47.1
NH 42.7 45.9 46.5 44.2 51.1
NC 46.5 49.2 49.9 46.5 46.3
OH 45.8 48.3 51.3 47.1 50.1
PA 44.3 47.2 48.2 46.1 45.6
VA 42.3 44.6 44.4 43.2 48.4
WI 40.3 42.9 47.2 44.3 47.4
AVERAGE 44.1 46.6 48.0 45.6 48.9

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Posted by on September 15, 2017 in 2016 election

 

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