Why the 2016 pre-election polls, unadjusted exit polls and recorded vote are all wrong

Richard Charnin
Dec.30, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

The 2016 election was different in kind from prior elections; the Democrat was the establishment candidate. It was established beyond a reasonable doubt that the primaries were stolen from Bernie Sanders by the DNC which colluded with the media.

Some analysts claim that the 2016 unadjusted state exit polls prove that the election was rigged for Trump. But just because the polls were excellent indicators of the True Vote in the past does not prove that they were accurate in 2016. 

Are we supposed to believe that the MSM would not rig the unadjusted exit polls to match the rigged  pre-election polls  to make it appear that Clinton was the winner?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0
http://www.inquisitr.com/3692040/2016-presidential-polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-leading-battleground-states-win-lose/

Exit pollsters at  Edison Research never reveal the location of precincts, votes and survey results. The only way to prove that the unadjusted exit polls are correct (and the published results bogus) is 1) to reveal the complete exit poll timeline and the data for all precincts polled and 2) a True Vote analysis based on historical and current independent data.

True Vote analysis indicates that Trump won the popular and electoral vote and that pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton by inflating Democratic Party-ID. True Vote Models were based on a) national Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation and b) returning 2012 voters.

As usual, state and national exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote. This was the first election in which the media discussed election fraud – but avoided the obvious U.S. suspects from prior elections and the rigged voting machines, illegal and disenfranchised voters. Now that the MSM finally admits election fraud, they blame it on the Russians! And don’t report the proven fact that the primary was rigged for Clinton.

Party-ID
Nine Pre-election polls (average): 28.8 Ind – 38.7 Dem- 31.9 Rep.
Final National Exit Poll (CNN): 31 Ind – 36 Dem – 33 Rep.
Gallup national voter affiliation survey: 40 Ind -32 Dem -28 Rep. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=505041111

Nine Pre-election polls 
Clinton won the average: 45.8-43.3%
Trump won the average Gallup-adjusted poll: 44.4-42.9%
Trump won Independents: 43.6-33.8%

Final  National Exit Poll (forced to match the Recorded Vote)
Clinton won the reported vote: 48.2-46.2%.
Clinton won the National Exit Poll: 47.7-46.2%.
Trump won Independents by just 46-42% – a 5.8% discrepancy from the pre-election polls which he led by 9.8%. This anomaly is additional evidence that Trump won the True Vote.

Unadjusted exit polls (28 states)
Clinton won the polls: 49.6-43.6%
Clinton won the corresponding recorded vote: 49.3-45.2%

States not exit polled
Trump won: 50.4-43.7%

True Vote
Trump led the True Vote Model (three scenarios of his share of late undecided voters)
– Scenario I:  47.5-45.1%, 306 EV (50% undecided)
– Scenario II: 47.9-44.7%, 321 EV (60% undecided)
– Scenario III: 48.3-44.3%, 351 EV (70% undecided)

The True Vote Model analysis based on a plausible number of returning voters from the prior election  confirmed the three scenarios: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/04/29/university-of-virginia-study-20-of-trump-voters-were-former-obama-voters/

The National Election Pool of six media giants funds exit pollster Edison Research. The published results are always forced to match the recorded vote which implies zero election fraud. But there is always election fraud.  Historically, unadjusted state and national exit polls always favored the Democratic candidate, but there was  a RED shift from the Democrat in the poll to the Republican in the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates that the 1988-2008 unadjusted exit polls were accurate.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

2016 ELECTION MODEL (Nov.3): Trump 98% Win Probability

2016 ELECTION MODEL (Nov.3): Trump 98% Win Probability

Richard Charnin
Nov.3, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

The purpose of the Election Model  is to show the effects of changes in voter party affiliation (Dem, Rep, Ind). There are currently nine polls in the model. Each poll is shown using a) the actual poll shares and Party-ID weights and b) the actual poll shares using the Gallup party-affiliation survey. Gallup is the only poll dedicated to national voter party affiliation.

Undecided voters are allocated to derive the final adjusted TRUE poll share. Typically the challenger (in this case Trump) gets approximately 75% of the undecided vote.

Clinton leads Trump 44.9-43.3%  in the actual 9-poll average.

After adjusting the polls for the Gallup voter affiliation split (40I-32D-28R):
Trump leads Clinton 44.7-41.7% and by 336-202 EV before undecided voter allocation.
Trump leads Clinton 49.0-43.2% after undecided voter allocation. 
There is a 98% probability that Trump will win the popular vote.

THE MODEL SHOWS THAT THE PRE-ELECTION POLLS ARE OVERSTATING HILLARY CLINTON’S VOTE BY INFLATING THE NUMBER OF DEMOCRATS COMPARED TO INDEPENDENTS AND REPUBLICANS.

As I have stated many times, each poll has a different party-ID.Theoretically, they should all have the SAME Party-ID since these are NATIONAL polls – and there is only ONE theoretical NATIONAL Party-ID split at any given point in time.

The popular Vote Win Probability and estimated Electoral Vote are calculated for each poll. The 2016 party-ID for each state is calculated by applying the  proportional  change  from the 2012 party-ID  to  the current Gallup 2016 survey Party-ID. The state votes  are calculated by applying the published national poll shares to the 2016 state party-ID. The electoral vote is then calculated.

The built-in SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS shows the effect of incremental vote shares on the total vote.

Those who have written models can appreciate the methodology. So can individuals who can apply basic logic.The model uses actual published data. If there is another quantitative modeler out there who has written a similar model to approximate the True poll shares, I would like to see it.

9-POLL AVERAGE	Gallup Pct	Stein	Clinton	Trump	Johnson
Ind	40.0%	4%	28%	44%	6%
Dem	32.0%	1%	91%	6%	2%
Rep	28.0%	1%	5%	90%	3%
Total	92.5%	2.2%	41.7%	44.7%	3.9%
Votes	119,448	2,840	53,863	57,736	5,009
EVote	538	0	202	336	0

Nov. 3	Party	ID
ACTUAL	Ind	Dem	Rep	HRC	Trump
Ipsos	11.9%	43.5%	36.6%	42%	38%
IBD	27.4%	39.9%	32.7%	44%	44%
Rasmussen	32%	40%	28%	42%	45%
Quinnipiac	26%	40%	34%	47%	40%
Fox News	19%	43%	38%	44%	41%
CNN	43%	31%	26%	49%	44%
ABC	29%	37%	29%	47%	45%
Gravis	27%	40%	33%	46%	45%
LA Times	30%	38%	32%	43%	48%
Average	27.3%	39.2%	32.1%	44.9%	43.3%
GALLUP ADJUSTED			Elect	Vote	Popular Vote	Undec.Alloc.
40I-32D-28R	HRC	Trump	HRC	Trump	Win Prob	Win Prob
Ipsos	37.9%	39.4%	232	306	73.4%	99.4%
IBD	40.9%	45.8%	180	358	96.8%	99.8%
Rasmussen	37.2%	47.4%	46	492	100.0%	100.0%
Quinnipiac	44.7%	40.8%	335	203	6.5%	35.8%
Fox News	39.6%	41.6%	218	320	79.9%	97.3%
CNN	48.6%	44.4%	335	203	7.0%	13.7%
ABC	46.4%	49.7%	202	336	86.5%	87.4%
Gravis	42.6%	45.6%	216	322	86.7%	99.1%
LA Times	40.7%	49.4%	54	484	99.9%	100.0%
Average	41.7%	44.7%	202	336	87.2%	98.1%

Sensitivity Analysis	9-Poll Average
Gallup	40I-32D-28R
		Trump	% Rep
Trump	86.0%	88.0%	90.0%	92.0%	94.0%
% Ind			Trump
48%	45.2%	45.8%	46.3%	46.9%	47.4%
44%	43.6%	44.2%	44.7%	45.3%	45.8%
40%	42.0%	42.6%	43.1%	43.7%	44.2%
			Clinton
48%	41.2%	40.7%	40.1%	39.6%	39.0%
44%	42.8%	42.3%	41.7%	41.2%	40.6%
40%	44.4%	43.9%	43.3%	42.8%	42.2%
			Margin
48%	4.0%	5.1%	6.2%	7.3%	8.4%
44%	0.8%	1.9%	3.0%	4.1%	5.2%
40%	-2.4%	-1.3%	-0.2%	0.9%	2.0%
			Vote Margin (000)
48%	4,730	6,068	7,406	8,744	10,081
44%	908	2,246	3,583	4,921	6,259
40%	-2,915	-1,577	-239	1,099	2,437

9-poll average	Vote	Share	Electoral	Vote
	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Total	41.7%	44.7%	202	336
AK	29.6%	49.9%	0	3
AL	36.7%	51.4%	0	9
AR	38.6%	49.0%	0	6
AZ	36.3%	47.9%	0	11
CA	44.7%	41.3%	55	0
CO	37.6%	46.8%	0	9
CT	42.6%	40.7%	7	0
DC	66.6%	23.7%	3	0
DE	46.9%	40.0%	3	0
FL	41.2%	45.2%	0	29
GA	39.8%	48.0%	0	16
HI	46.4%	42.1%	4	0
IA	37.9%	46.4%	0	6
ID	32.1%	54.9%	0	4
IL	45.3%	42.7%	20	0
IN	38.6%	49.0%	0	11
KS	32.4%	52.7%	0	6
KY	47.9%	42.2%	8	0
LA	36.6%	46.0%	0	8
MA	43.8%	37.4%	11	0
MD	51.0%	36.9%	10	0
ME	39.2%	44.3%	0	4
MI	43.5%	44.3%	0	16
MN	43.1%	45.1%	0	10
MO	39.7%	48.4%	0	10
MS	38.8%	49.4%	0	6
MT	35.3%	52.8%	0	3
NC	43.5%	42.6%	15	0
ND	37.6%	50.4%	0	3
NE	34.8%	52.4%	0	5
NH	36.2%	46.9%	0	4
NJ	40.9%	41.4%	0	14
NM	45.8%	41.4%	5	0
NV	41.7%	44.7%	0	6
NY	48.6%	37.9%	29	0
OH	41.0%	47.1%	0	18
OK	42.1%	46.8%	0	7
OR	41.6%	43.6%	0	7
PA	46.3%	42.6%	20	0
RI	47.0%	35.5%	4	0
SC	39.7%	48.4%	0	9
SD	36.6%	50.8%	0	3
TN	37.1%	50.7%	0	11
TX	39.2%	47.9%	0	38
UT	30.3%	57.8%	0	6
VA	40.5%	47.4%	0	13
VT	46.1%	41.2%	3	0
WA	42.5%	47.0%	0	12
WI	42.2%	46.1%	0	10
WV	47.7%	39.8%	5	0
WY	25.8%	62.5%	0	3