JFK Probability Analysis: Suspicious Deaths of Dealey Plaza Witnesses

Richard Charnin

June 4, 2014

Updated: Oct. 30, 2017

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The 1977 House Select Committee on Assassination (HSCA) claimed that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 1 in 100,000 trillion probability calculation that 18 material witnesses would die (13 unnaturally) in the three years following the assassination was invalid. The HSCA claimed that the witness universe was unknown. But the HSCA did not consider Dealey Plaza witnesses or other knowable witness groups (Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate hearings – and the HSCA itself).

It is an interesting exercise to calculate the probabilities of suspicious deaths of 28 Dealey Plaza witnesses. Of the suspicious deaths, 14 were officially ruled unnatural (5 homicides, 7 accidents, 2 suicides).

Assuming there were 600 Dealey Plaza witnesses, the probability of 14 ruled unnatural deaths during the period 1963-1978 is 1 in 230 million. But the nine accidents and suicides were likely homicides.

The probability of 14 homicides for 400, 600 and 1000 witnesses:

400: 1 in 900 trillion

600: 1 in 4 trillion

1000: 1 in 5 billion

Sixteen Dealey Plaza witnesses testified at the Warren Commission, 3 were sought to testify at the Garrison trial, 3 at the Church Senate hearings and 3 at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA).

The probabilities of JFK witness deaths for various groups have been previously posted: Warren Commission, London Times actuary,Garrison/ Shaw, Church, HSCA, Simkin Educational Forum, JFK-related 1400+ witness reference “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

1 6311 Lee Harvey Oswald

2 6311 J.D. Tippit

3 6512 William Whaley

4 6606 Frank Martin

5 6608 Lee Bowers

6 6611 James Worrell

7 6701 Jack Ruby

8 6901 Charles Mentesana

9 6901 Buddy Walthers

10 7001 Merriman Smith

11 7008 Bill Decker

12 7101 Mac Wallace

13 7109 Roscoe White

14 7109 Cliff Carter

15 7309 Thomas E. Davis

16 7402 J.A. Milteer

17 7501 Allen Sweatt

18 7502 Ira (Jack) Beers

19 7505 Roger Craig

20 7509 Earl Cabell

21 7604 James Chaney

22 7608 Johnny Roselli

23 7703 Charles Nicoletti

24 7707 Ken O’Donnell

25 7801 Clint “Lummie” Lewis

26 7805 David Morales

27 7901 Billy Lovelady

28 8403 Roy Kellerman

Dealey Plaza witness deaths: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=79

Quick JFK Witness death Calculator:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDFSU3NVd29xWWNyekd2X1ZJYllKTnc#gid=78