Richard Charnin

Feb. 11, 2017

**77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud**

**Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and** Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

*Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll*

**LINKS TO POSTS**

I was asked to calculate the probability of my exact forecast of the Electoral Vote in the last three elections. It was a combination of experience and luck. I do not expect to exactly forecast the EV in 2020.

Note that the following calculation is just an approximation.

Assume the following:

1) the probability of Obama winning in 2008 was 0.95; it was also 0.95 in 2012. The probability of Trump winning in 2016 was 0.05.

Therefore the probability of forecasting all three winners correctly is

**P1 = 0.045 =.95*.95*.05**

2) the winning EV is in the 270-370 range.

The probability of exactly forecasting the EV in a given election is 0.01. The probability of exactly forecasting the EV in all 3 elections is 1 in a million:

**P2 =.000001 = 0.01*0.01*0.01**

**Therefore, the probability of forecasting the winner and the EV in the three elections is**

**P3 = P1*P2 = .045* 0.000001 or 1 in 22 million.**

**To put it another way, forecasting the electoral vote exactly in three successive elections would be expected to occur just once in 22 million elections (88 million years).**

Track Record

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/