Tag Archives: probability

Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability


Richard Charnin
Updated: 9/3/17

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume N = 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
– 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
The probability is 1 in 6.5 million.
– 15 suspicious deaths (11 homicides) in 16 months since April 2016.
The probability is 1 in 8 billion.
Assume N = 30,000: The probability is 1 in 145,000.

4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, UN official, found with barbell on neck.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov : Monica Petersen, investigator of Clinton Foundation, child trafficking, found dead in Haiti.
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails.
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.
July 20: Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead.
Aug: Kurt Smolek, possible ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Up until 2015, Smolek worked for the State Dept in Cambodia as an OSAC Diplomatic Security Agent.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years, given the group weighted average mortality rate R? The expected number of unnatural deaths is E = N*R*T.  The probability of n unnatural deaths is a function of  E and n: the larger the difference between E and n, the lower the probability.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

Probabilities of n Homicides (rate =0.00005) in a Group of N over 68 weeks  

n 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000
9 0.00% 0.02% 0.65% 4.39%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 1.89%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.75%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.28%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09%
  Prob =1 in    
11 7,774,323,682 143,934 1,691 133

The analysis assumes 11 deaths were  homicides. If they were a combination of 8 homicides,  1 accident and  2 suicides, we need to use the 0.00009 weighted average mortality rate. The probability is 1 in 14.5 million. This is conservative since the “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides.

Unnatural n  Rate
Accident    1  0.00038
Suicide       2  0.00012
Homicide  8  0.00005
Weighted 11 0.00009 


In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths: 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability: 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 44 homicides, Probability = 4.7 E-60


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


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The NY Democratic Primary Quiz

The NY Democratic Primary Quiz

Richard Charnin
April 23, 2016

There were 1307 NY Exit Poll  respondents at 9 pm and 1391 at the final – an increase of just 84 respondents.  Adjustments made to force the final 1391 exit poll to match the recorded vote in all exit poll categories are mathematically impossible. Therefore, the recorded vote was also mathematically impossible. The impossible adjustments are irrefutable proof of election fraud.

Let’s review the adjustments as a quiz.

1. At 9pm, Clinton had a) 51%, b) 52%, c) 53%
2. Clinton won the recorded vote with a) 57.3%, b) 57.7%, c) 57.9%
3. She had 28% of 18-29 year-olds. In the final she had a) 33%, b) 35%, c) 37%
4. She had 45% of males. In the final she had a) 49%, b) 50%, c) 51%
5. She had 71% of blacks. In the final she had a) 74%, b) 75%, c) 76%
6. She had 57% of Democrats. In the final she had a) 60%, b) 61%, c) 62%
7. She had 55% of Urban voters. In the final she had a) 59%, b) 60%, c) 62%
8. At 9pm, Urban voters comprised 55% of the total vote.
At the final, they comprised a) 62%, b) 64%, c) 66%

9. At 9pm, Clinton had 680 (52%) of 1307 respondents. She had 802 (57.9%) at the final (1391), an increase of 122 among the 84 final respondents.
This was a) a polling error, b) of no consequence, c)an absolute indicator of fraud.
10. At 9pm, Sanders had 622 (48%) and 589(42.1%) at the final, a 33 vote decline.
This was a) a polling error, b) of no consequence, c)an absolute indicator of fraud.

11.The probability of the 11.8% exit poll discrepancy from the recorded vote is
a) 1 in 91,000, b) 1 in 94,000, c) 1 in 102,000
12. The probability that Sanders exit poll share would be greater than his recorded share in 21 of 23 primaries is a) 1 in 13,000, b) 1 in 30,000, c) 1 in 40,000
13. In the NY Cumulative Vote Share analysis, Sanders and Clinton were tied after
a) 400,000, b) 500,000, c) 600,000 of 1.79 million total votes

1b, 2c,3b,4b,5b,6c,7c,8b,9c,10c,11c,12b,13c


Posted by on April 23, 2016 in 2016 election, Uncategorized


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Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination

Richard Charnin
April 18, 2013
Updated Aug.2, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature.

There is no conjecture here, just the facts surrounding fifty mysterious witness deaths presented in an easy-to-read format. Warren Commission apologists are reduced to irrelevancy; the proof of conspiracy is overwhelming and beyond any doubt. The authors cite my probability analysis as background information.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy:

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

The actuary’s odds are confirmed assuming:459 witnesses and 0.000207 weighted total mortality rate.

In this video, Mark Lane, famous author/investigator of several books on the assassination, interviews Penn Jones, an independent researcher of JFK witness deaths.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. A comprehensive probability analysis shows that the actuary’s odds were conservative. There were many more than 18 suspicious deaths.

The proof is in the post Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary which links to the JFK Witness Database Spreadsheet Model.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 20 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

There were approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses. In 1964-1978, at least 78 were officially ruled unnatural (homicide, suicide, accidental, unknown). The others were suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc. Normally 17 unnatural deaths would be expected.

Some have questioned the relevance of the unnatural and suspicious witness deaths related to the assassination. Of the 122 witnesses in the database, 67 were sought or testified at the Warren Commission, the Clay Shaw trial, the Church Senate Committee, and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Thirteen testified or were sought in two of the investigations. Therefore, they were indisputably relevant.

The probability of exactly n deaths among N witnesses over T years given mortality rate R is calculated using the Poisson function: P (n) = Poisson (n, N*T*R, false)

The probability of at least n deaths is P (n) = 1- Poisson (n-1, N*T*R, true)

The probability of at least
19 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year is E-30 (1 in a TRILLION TRILLION).
42 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years is E-50 (ZERO).
78 UNNATURAL deaths within FIFTEEN years is E-62 (ZERO).

Assuming the JFK witness WEIGHTED unnatural rate, the probability of
20 UNNATURAL deaths among 552 Warren Commission witnesses is 1 in 1 TRILLION
46 UNNATURAL deaths among 1100 witnesses called by WC, Garrison, Senate, HSCA is ZERO.

The average national HOMICIDE rate in 1964-78 was 0.000084.
There were at least 34 officially ruled homicides.
P= E-31 = 1 in a million trillion trillion)

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000084 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 38 billion of 25 homicides in the 3 years following the assassination. But how many of the suicides, accidents, heart attacks and sudden cancers were actually homicides? The probability would be much lower. So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000. The average rate from 1964-78 was 0.000084.

Warren Commission – 552 witnesses
In the 3 years following the assassination, there were at least 10 unnatural deaths. Applying the 0.000068 weighted unnatural rate, the probability is 1 in 12000 TRILLION – the same order of magnitude as the London Times actuary’s calculation. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths from 1964-78. Applying the 0.000138 weighted unnatural mortality rate, the probability is 1 in 500,000 TRILLION.

The following unnatural mortality rate table displays the cause of death, expected number of deaths among 1400 witnesses, actual number of deaths,mortality rate, and JFK witness vs. U.S. unnatural death weightings.

Cause.......... Exp Ruled Rate JFK U.S.
Homicide....... 1.77 34 0.000084 43% 10%
Suicide........ 2.73 16 0.000130 21% 16%
Accident.......12.47 24 0.000594 31% 73%
Unknown........ 0.21 04 0.000010 05% 01%
Total..........17.18 78 0.000818 100% 100%

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Posted by on April 18, 2013 in JFK


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Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Conspiracy Theories and Mathematical Probabilities

Richard Charnin
May 25, 2012
Updated: Dec.8, 2015

Links to WEB/Blog Posts

Look inside the books:
– Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
– Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
–  Proving Election Fraud

It’s an interesting exercise to calculate mathematical probabilities of so-called “conspiracy theories”. The mainstream media and their cadre of online gatekeepers and trolls use the term “Conspiracy Theorist” (CT) as a derogatory label for those who seek the truth. According to these disinformationists, there is no proof of conspiracies.

But they  avoid factual analysis based on the scientific evidence and can’t refute the mathematics that proves beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a massive conspiracy to hide the truth of these events from the public.

Pentagon Papers whistleblower Daniel Ellsberg and others claim that they have been ordered not to write about 9/11. This has not been reported by the corporate media, proving their point.

A pathetic article by world-class coincidence theorist and disinformationist Michael Shermer appeared in Scientific American. Who would expect a respected magazine to print this? Check out the comments from readers. Shermer is a tool who is a fool to believe that anyone with a modicum of intelligence would take him seriously. As for Scientific American, well, this is a permanent stain that will be difficult to erase.

These myths are promoted non-stop in the mainstream media.
– Oswald acted alone in 1963 – with a magic bullet and defective rifle.
– Bush won Florida in 2000 and had a 3 million “mandate” in 2004.
– Nineteen Muslims armed with box cutters who could not fly a Cessna, hijacked four airliners and outfoxed the entire U.S. defense establishment  while Bin Laden was on dialysis, near death and hiding in caves.

Scientific notation is necessary to express the extremely low probabilities of the following events. For example, the probability P that at least 23 material witnesses would die unnaturally in the year following the JFK assassination is 7.3E-40 in scientific notation (less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion).

To put the numbers in context: There are an estimated 300 billion trillion (3E23) stars in the universe. That’s 3 followed by 23 zeros: 300,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. There are an estimated 700 thousand trillion (7E17) grains of sand on earth or 7 followed by 17 zeros: 700,000,000,000,000,000.

The probability calculations are based on the Normal, Binomial and Poisson distribution functions.

The Normal Distribution (ND) is based on a sample of observations defined by the mean (average) value and standard deviation (a measure of volatility of the observations from the mean). The ND is used to calculate the probability that Kerry’s unadjusted 51.7% National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) share would deviate 3.4% from his 48.3% recorded national share.

The Binomial Distribution (BD) is used to calculate the probability P of n successes in N trials when the probability p of a success is constant in each trial. The BD is used to calculate the probability P that n= 86 of N=88 DRE voting machines would flip votes from Kerry to Bush.

The Poisson Distribution (PD) is used to calculate the probability P that a given number n of events with low probability will occur over a period of time. The PD is used to calculate the probability P that at least n=78 JFK-related individuals out of a population of N=1400 witnesses would die unnaturally in the T=15 years following the assassination.

Executive action: JFK witness-deaths Probability analysis
The probability analysis is straightforward; it’s not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of a conspiracy based on factual data: number of witnesses, number of unnatural (murder, accident, suicide, unknown) deaths, corresponding mortality rates and the time period. The Poisson function calculates the probability. The average U.S. 1964-78 unnatural mortality rate was 0.000818. The average JFK witness mortality rate (0.000247) was lower due to the high proportion of homicides compared to suicides and accidents.

In the 1973 film Executive Action it was revealed that an actuary hired by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability that 18 material witnesses would die within three years of the assassination as 100,000 trillion to one.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the database of witnesses, the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula. This is a spreadsheet database of witnesses and probability calculations.

Probabilities of Material Witness Deaths

Warren Commission Witnesses (1964-78):
– 15 official ruled unnatural deaths

There were 3 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 4 suicides, 6 accidents, 1 unknown. Given the 0.000295 weighted average mortality rate, the probability is P= 5.08E-08 (1 in 20 million)

– 21 unofficial actual unnatural deaths
There were 17 homicides, 2 accidents, 1 suicide, 1 unknown. Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected. Given the 0.000131 weighted rate, the probability is:
P = 3.65E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.08, false)
P = 1 in 27 million trillion

This graph shows the long-term trend in the U.S. homicide rate. In 1963 the homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000.

Deaths by Major Causes: 1960-2011 Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. The average homicide rate for 1964-1978 was 8.4 per 100,000.

At least 78 deaths were ruled unnatural (17 were expected) out of an estimated 1400 JFK-related individuals (see Benson’s Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination). The probability is based on the JFK-weighted unnatural death rate (0.000247):
P = 2.8E-62 = Poisson (78, 15*1400*0.000247, false)

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

Election Fraud Probability Analysis

To believe election fraud is just a conspiracy theory, you must believe that

1. The Election Incident Reporting System (EIRS) indication that 86 of 88 DRE voting machines in various states flipped votes from Kerry to Bush was just a coincidence. The probability P is calculated as:
P = 1E-23 = Binomdist (86, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (87, 88, .5, false) + Binomdist (88, 88, .5, false) or
P = 1 in 79 billion trillion

2. In the 1988-2008 elections,  massive  percentage discrepancies between the average recorded vote (48D-46R) and the 274 unadjusted state and national exit polls (52D-42R) were not significant. The True Vote Model (TVM) was incorrect although it confirmed the polls.

2.  There was nothing suspicious in the red shift of 2008 unadjusted exit polls in 36 states to the GOP beyond the margin of error (MoE) to McCain in the recorded vote. The probability is
P = 2.4E-39 = Poisson(36,.025*50,false) or
P = 1 in 400 trillion trillion trillion!

3. In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, there was nothing suspicious in the fact that 232 (85%) of the 274 state exit polls red-shifted to the Republican. Normally, an even split (137) would be expected. The probability is: P = 4.7E-39 or 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion!

4. There was nothing suspicious in the probability that at least 55 of 57 state elections would flip from the Democrats in the unadjusted exit polls to the Republicans in the recorded vote:
P = 1-Binomdist(54,57,.5,true)
P = 1.1E-14 = 0.000000000000011 or 1 in 88 trillion!

5. In the 1988-2008 elections, there was nothing suspicious in the 8% discrepancy between the 274 state unadjusted exit poll aggregate (52D-42R) and the recorded votes (48D-46R). There were 375,000 exit poll respondents. Assuming a conservative 1.2% margin of error, the probability is
P = Normdist(.52,.48,.012/1.96,false) = 3.51E-08 or 1 in 28 million.

6. It was just a coincidence that the exit poll margin of error (MoE) was exceeded in 131 of the 274 exit polls in favor of the Republican – and just 4 for the Democrat. The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in any state is 1 in 20. Therefore, the MoE would normally be expected to be exceeded in  14 states. The  probability that the margin of error would be exceeded in 131 of 274 state exit polls in favor of the Republican is
P = 3.7E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false)
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

Microbiologist Mystery Deaths
The unnatural deaths of 16 world-class microbiologists (8 homicides) in the four months (0.33 year) following 9/11 and the anthrax scare cannot be coincidental. Assuming 10,000 world-class microbiologists, the probability of 16 unnatural deaths in 4 months is:
P = Poisson(16,0.33*.0002*10000,false) or P= 1 in 30 trillion.
Assuming 100,000 microbiologists, P= 1 in 1000

Eight International Bank Executives Mystery Deaths in Jan. 2014
This is a probability sensitivity analysis over a range of 5,000-500,000 bank execs:

Mysterious-deaths of 125 scientists, 75 bankers and 11 Holistic Doctors

9/11 Scientific Evidence vs. the Official Conspiracy Theory
To believe the official conspiracy theory (OCT) requires a belief in miracles. It requires cognitive dissonance of obvious explosive (WTC1 and WTC2) and symmetric (WTC7) destruction.

This group of professionals is dedicated to uncovering the truth about 9/11.

Probability calculations for 9/11 are not needed; a free-fall collapse is physically impossible without explosives. Ask Isaac Newton. Office fires burn at 2000 degrees below the temperatures required to melt steel. Not one steel-framed building has ever collapsed due to fires, before or since 9/11. The probability is ABSOLUTE ZERO based on historical facts and Newtonian physics.

NIST claims that office fires caused 3 steel-framed buildings to collapse at near free-fall – a clear refutation of Newton’s Laws of Motion.
– Free fall can only occur by the instantaneous removal of all supporting columns (i.e. a controlled demolition).
– Lateral ejection of debris can only occur from explosions – not fires.
– Jet fuel burns 1500 degrees lower than required to melt steel.
– No steel-framed office buildings have ever collapsed due to fires.

CNN reporter Barbara Olson was a passenger on AA Flight 11 (which allegedly crashed into the Pentagon). She called husband Solicitor General Ted Olson from her cell phone and told him hijackers were armed with knives and box cutters.
– It was later disclosed that cell phones could not work at 30,000 feet.
– Olson then said that she called from a seatback phone. But according to an American Airlines spokesman, there were no seatback phones on Boeing 757 airliners.
– At the 2006 Moussaoui trial, the FBI reported there was one attempted call that lasted zero seconds (“unconnected”)from Barbara Olson to Ted Olson.

The BBC reported that WTC 7 collapsed at 5pm, 20 minutes before happened.
– How did the reporter know that it would collapse? Was she psychic?
– All fires burned out long before 5pm.
– Silverstein, the owner, said “pull it”.

and there is much more…

A believer of the official conspiracy theory (OCT) must ask explain how…

– William Rodriguez, a WTC janitor, would hear a loud explosion seven seconds before the plane hit, but his testimony would be ignored by the 9/11 commission.
– The NIST would fail to acknowledge free-fall until David Chandler proved it.
– The collapse of WTC 7 would occur due to structural failure of one beam.
– The 9/11 Commission would fail to mention WTC 7 or note it their Report
– For the first time in history, not one but three steel-framed buildings would collapse due to office fires.

– Airline fuel burning at 1000F would melt steel.
– April Gallop would hear an explosion next to her office at the Pentagon but not see any aircraft debris.
– NIST would not consider explosives as a possible cause of the collapses.
– NIST would admit freefall and claim it was due to office furniture fires.
– There would be traces of thermite in the lungs of first responders.

– Over 118 firefighters would imagine that they heard explosions.
– Furniture would be ejected laterally 600 feet from office fires.
– Firefighters would know that WTC 7 would collapse before it did.
– When Larry Silverstein said “pull-it” he did not mean demolish WTC 7.
– At 5pm, the BBC would report WTC7 fell, 20 minutes before it did.

– The passport of an alleged hijacker would be found in the rubble of the WTC.
– There would be no manifest record that hijackers boarded the planes.
– Put options on airline stocks would rise dramatically a few days before 9/11.
– Osama Bin Laden would not be on the FBI most wanted list for 9/11.
– 9/11 Commission heads Kean and Hamilton would disavow their own report.

– There were multiple air defense exercises conducted on 9/11.
– Officials who ignored standard response procedures would be promoted.
– Not one of the four flight recorders would be retrieved.
– There is no video, airline debris or human remains at the Pentagon.
– There is no video, debris or human remains at the Pennsylvania crash site.

– The media would not investigate these facts.

April Gallop was working at the Pentagon and never saw a plane.

Barbara Honegger presents a detailed analysis of the Pentagon scam:

This is what a retired general in charge of intelligence had to say:


Posted by on May 26, 2012 in JFK


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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis