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Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump Approval

Richard Charnin
Updated: Aug.31, 2018

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According to Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump has a 48% total approval rating. Among black voters, he has 34% approval.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.

The  Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.  

Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate.
Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval
.48= .88*X+.12*34
X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88
X= 0.50 non-black approval

Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split.
Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03

The Harris-Harvard Poll shows that Trump has 45% total approval.
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/news/caps-harris-poll-foreign-policy-and-supreme-court

WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo:
Trump approval Calculations: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%

WaPo
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 25 78
Indep 37 35
Dem.. 33 6
Total 95 34.4
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 78
Indep 43 35
Dem.. 27 6
Total 98 38.5

Sensitivity- Adjust shares of Republicans and Independents
Gallup

……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 90
Indep 43 43
Dem 27 6
Total 98 45.31

https://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2018/08/31/National-Politics/Polling/question_20686.xml?uuid=UnUesq0MEeiafc0wUE_5Ag
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).

Trump
 Non-black
Approval
Black 0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500
Approval Trump
Total
Approval
0.40 0.435 0.453 0.470 0.488
0.38 0.433 0.450 0.468 0.486
0.36 0.430 0.448 0.466 0.483
0.34 0.428 0.446 0.463 0.481
0.03 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.444

How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?

Assume
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.

Trump wins by 9 million votes.

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total 100% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76%

NEP/RACE
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Total 138.2 60.42 69.39 8.41
Share 100% 43.71% 50.20% 6.08%

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1200a1TrumpandtheMuellerInvestigation.pdf https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2016
2016 Presidential Election Model

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Posted by on August 16, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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THE 2016 ELECTION MODEL (8 PRE-ELECTION POLLS)

THE 2016 ELECTION MODEL (8 PRE-ELECTION POLLS)

Richard Charnin
Oct. 26,2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

This is the ONLY model which compares pre-election vote shares and corresponding Electoral votes to the adjusted Gallup affiliation survey (40 Ind-32 Dem-28 Rep).It will be updated as often as possible.

View the model:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

Clinton currently leads in 7 of the 8 published polls (Yellow cells). One (Gravis) is tied.
Using Gallup-adjusted weights (Blue cells), Trump leads in 4, Clinton leads in 4

The model uses the poll vote shares which match the published polls.
But Jill Stein must be doing much better than 1-3%.
THEREFORE HILLARY CLINTON MUST BE DOING WORSE THAN THE POLLS INDICATE.

Electoral votes for the Gallup adjusted weights:
…………Clinton Trump
Ipsos/Reuters 232 306
IBD 202 336
Rasmussen 80 458
Quinnipiac 354 184
Fox News 335 203
CNN 335 203
ABC/WashPost 459 79
Gravis 147 391

 
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Posted by on October 26, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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Comparing Five pre-election polls: Why the Gallup voter affiliation survey is used in the 2016 Election Model

Richard Charnin
Oct. 23, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

The fact that Party-ID demographic in five current polls (see realclearpolitics.com) vary greatly  is a cause for concern. What is the correct mix of Democrats, Republicans and Independents? Theoretically, the National polls should have nearly identical Party-ID weightings. But they don’t, so which ones are to believed?

This summary analysis compares the poll shares  to  those obtained using the Gallup party affiliation survey  weights (currently  40% Independents, 32% Democrats and 28% Republicans).

Clinton leads the average of five pre-election polls by 43.0-40.7%. Applying the 2016 Election Model, this translates to a 302-236 average Electoral Vote win.

Using the Gallup survey  weights for each poll (using the same poll shares), Trump leads by 41.8-39.3%. He wins the average Electoral Vote by 329-209.

In the five polls, the average Party-ID is 40.8 Dem- 33.6 Rep- 25.6 Ind.  Trump leads the Independents in each poll by an average of 40-28%.

IBD/TIPP is the only  poll in which Independents are the largest group (38%) and closely approximates the Gallup affiliation survey..

View the 2016 Election Model  (with links to the five polls and the Gallup survey)

 Poll share   Electoral Vote  
Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 42.1 39.6 298 240
Rasmussen 40.9 42.9 211 327
IBD/TIPP 39.5 42.2 202 336
Quinnipiac 47.6 39.7 444 94
Fox News 45 39 354 184
Average 43.02 40.68 301.8 236.2
 Gallup affiliation:   Poll share   Electoral Vote
40Ind;32Dem;28Rep Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
Ipsos 36.4 37.7 232 306
Rasmussen 36.8 47.4 81 457
IBD/TIPP 36.5 45.4 42 496
Quinnipiac 45.4 40.5 354 184
Fox News 41.3 37.9 335 203
Average 39.28 41.78 208.8 329.2

 

Party ID Mix Ind Dem Rep
Ipsos 13 46 41
Rasmussen 32 40 28
IBD/TIPP 38 35 27
Quinnipiac 26 40 34
Fox News 19 43 38
Average 25.6 40.8 33.6
 Independent shares    
Poll Clinton Trump
Ipsos 23 34
Rasmussen 22 47
IBD/TIPP 28 44
Quinnipiac 38 42
Fox News 30 35
Average 28.2 40.4

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on October 23, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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A Tale of Two Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Oct. 21, 2016

Just published: 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit 
Proving Election Fraud

This analysis illustrates how polling results (and electoral votes) are manipulated due to the over-weighting of Democrats and under-weighting of Independents. The misleading poll results are compared to the more accurate Gallup party voter affiliation weighting.

The Quinnipiac poll has Clinton leading Trump 47-40%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 26%, Dem 40%, Rep 34%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Clinton wins by 444-94 Electoral Votes.

Assuming the Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Clinton wins by 45.4-40.5% with 354-184 EV.

The Rasmussen poll has Trump leading Clinton 43-41%.
Given the internal poll shares, the Party-ID split is
Ind 32%, Dem 40%, Rep 28%.
Using the Four-way Election Model, Trump wins by 327-211 Electoral Votes

Assuming the  Gallup party affiliation survey
(Ind 40%, Dem 32%, Rep 28%):
Trump wins in a landslide by 45.4-36.5% with 496-42 EV.

 

Quinnipiac Match poll
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 26% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 40% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 34% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 47.64% 39.72% 6.28% 6.36%
Votes 129,106 61,506 51,281 8,108 8,211
Elect Vote 538 444 94 0 0
Quinnipiac Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 38% 42% 8% 12%
Dem 32% 91% 4% 2% 3%
Rep 28% 4% 80% 10% 6%
Total 100% 45.44% 40.48% 6.64% 7.44%
Votes 129,106 58,666 52,262 8,573 9,605
Elect Vote 538 354 184 0 0
 
Rasmussen Match poll 41 43 5 3
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 32% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 40% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 40.92% 42.88% 8.80% 7.40%
Votes 129,106 52,830 55,360 11,361 9,554
Elect Vote 538 211 327 0 0
Rasmussen Match Gallup
Party-ID Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Ind 40% 22% 47% 18% 13%
Dem 32% 77% 15% 3% 6%
Rep 28% 11% 78% 8% 3%
Total 100% 36.52% 45.44% 10.08% 7.96%
Votes 129,106 47,149 58,666 13,014 10,277
Elect Vote 538 42 496 0 0

 

 

Polling Data

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1079567794

Four-way 2016 Election Model
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045

 
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Posted by on October 21, 2016 in 2016 election

 

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