Summary: 2004-2016 Election Forecast; 1968-2016 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin

Sept. 14, 2014

**1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model** https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

**1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model **https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

**1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)**

**Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%**

** True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8%**

**Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%**

** Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Dukakis 51.6-47.3%**

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=13

**1992**

**Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%**

** True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4%**

**Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%**

** Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%**

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=17

**1996**

**Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%**

** True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%**

**Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%**

** Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0%**

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=16

**2000**

**Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%**

** True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7% **

** Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%**

** Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%**

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/21/unadjusted-state-exit-polls-indicate-that-al-gore-won-a-mini-landslide-in-2000/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=4

**2004**

**Recorded Vote: Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%, 255 EV**

** Election Forecast Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)**

**True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV**

**Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%**

** Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV**

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/the-final-2004-national-exit-poll-switched-7-2-of-kerry-responders-to-bush/ https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

**2008**

**Recorded Vote: Obama 52.9-McCain 45.6%, 365 EV**

**Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)**

**True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV**

**Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2%**

** Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV**

http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc#gid=1

**2012**

**Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV**

**Election Forecast Model (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot) **

**True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/05/final-forecast-the-2012-true-vote-election-fraud-model/
**Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable

Unadjusted State Exit polls unavailable (19 states not polled)

**2016
Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Election Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV**

**Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable**

**Unadjusted 28 State Exit polls: Clinton 47.9-44.7%**

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1739803045