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The 2016 True Vote Model (TVM)

Richard Charnin
Aug. 20, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

In 2012, National and state exit polls stopped asking the question: “Who did you vote for in the last election”. Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote and assume zero fraud.

In the 2016 True Vote Model, returning  2012 election voter turnout is estimated. Vote shares required to match the recorded vote are calculated. The True Vote is estimated by adjusting 2012 voter turnout.  Recorded vote shares are unchanged.

2016 STATE TRUE VOTE MODEL: MICHIGAN
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1824904286

There are two sets of voter turnout assumptions. Vote shares are the same in each.

Case 1. Equal 95% turnout of returning Obama and Romney voters. Vote shares are calculated to automatically match the RECORDED vote.
Trump wins by 47.50-47.27% (10,821 votes)

Case 2. Base case TRUE VOTE
Estimate: 89% turnout of Obama, 95% turnout of Romney voters.
Trump wins by 48.7-45.7% (142,000 votes)
Assumption: Approximately 147,000  of Sanders MI primary voters who voted for Obama did not return to vote in the presidential election.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis
View a 25 scenario matrix for 5 Trump shares of returning Obama and 5 Trump shares of returning Romney voters. Trump wins 24 of 25 scenarios.

Worst case: Clinton wins by 47.4-46.9% (22,000 votes)
Base case: Trump wins by 48.7-45.7% (142,000 votes)
Best case: Trump wins by 50.4-44.0% (307,000 votes)

NATIONAL TRUE VOTE MODEL
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

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