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2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Last 3 Elections: Exact Forecast of Electoral Vote

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the MSM) required a greater turnout of Bush voters from the prior election than were still alive. This is a MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. If the exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

The Exit Poll Smoking Gun: “How did you vote in the last election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
Model 2: Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation. Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. To calculate the True Vote, returning Obama voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Using the prior 2012 vote as a basis, a voter mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary

Recorded Vote
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

The National Model

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

Mathematical Proof: the 2004 election was stolen
The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

2004 Election Fraud

2004 Spreadsheet 1

2004 Spreadsheet 2


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Seth Rich/DNC Mortality Probability


Richard Charnin
Updated: 9/3/17

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume N = 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
– 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
The probability is 1 in 6.5 million.
– 15 suspicious deaths (11 homicides) in 16 months since April 2016.
The probability is 1 in 8 billion.
Assume N = 30,000: The probability is 1 in 145,000.

4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, UN official, found with barbell on neck.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov : Monica Petersen, investigator of Clinton Foundation, child trafficking, found dead in Haiti.
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails.
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.
July 20: Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead.
Aug: Kurt Smolek, possible ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Up until 2015, Smolek worked for the State Dept in Cambodia as an OSAC Diplomatic Security Agent.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years, given the group weighted average mortality rate R? The expected number of unnatural deaths is E = N*R*T.  The probability of n unnatural deaths is a function of  E and n: the larger the difference between E and n, the lower the probability.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

Probabilities of n Homicides (rate =0.00005) in a Group of N over 68 weeks  

n 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000
9 0.00% 0.02% 0.65% 4.39%
10 0.00% 0.00% 0.21% 1.89%
11 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.75%
12 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.28%
13 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09%
  Prob =1 in    
11 7,774,323,682 143,934 1,691 133

The analysis assumes 11 deaths were  homicides. If they were a combination of 8 homicides,  1 accident and  2 suicides, we need to use the 0.00009 weighted average mortality rate. The probability is 1 in 14.5 million. This is conservative since the “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides.

Unnatural n  Rate
Accident    1  0.00038
Suicide       2  0.00012
Homicide  8  0.00005
Weighted 11 0.00009 


In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths: 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability: 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 44 homicides, Probability = 4.7 E-60


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


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Spreadsheet Links: JFK Witness Probability Database, True Vote Models, Unadjusted Exit Polls

Spreadsheet Links

Richard Charnin (
Nov.1, 2014
Updated: Sept.22, 2015

Look Inside the Books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Calc: 

Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference

1988-2008 Unadjusted Exit Polls:

1988-2012 State and National True Vote Model:

1968-2012 National True Vote Model:

2012 True Vote Model:

A Simple 2004-2008-2012 Presidential Exit Poll Simulation Model

2004 Election Monte Carlo Forecast and Exit Poll Simulation:

2004 County Presidential True Vote:

2014 Florida Governor

Walker Recall:

Walker Recall: County/Muni True Vote:

Walker Recall Cumulative Vote Shares:

Wisconsin True Vote: Supreme Court, State Senate Recalls, 2010 Senate:

2008 WI Presidential Cumulative Vote Shares:

Latin American Leader’s Cancer:

Mysterious Deaths of Bankers, Scientists, Microbiologists and Holistic Doctors

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Posted by on November 1, 2013 in Uncategorized


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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis