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# Tag Archives: spreadsheets

## 2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the MSM) required a greater turnout of Bush voters from the prior election than were still alive. This is a MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. If the exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
Model 2: Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation. Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. To calculate the True Vote, returning Obama voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Using the prior 2012 vote as a basis, a voter mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dlTnin814phKJWjYdkG-ujNKak3zo6ywIP0u0-TGFg/edit#gid=667189511

Recorded Vote
Clinton: 48.25-46.17% (2.83 million votes)
Trump: 306 Electoral Votes

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%
Trump: 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
Trump: 323 Electoral Votes

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:
Trump: 46.8-45.8% (1.35 million votes)
Trump: 307 Electoral Votes

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:
Trump: 48.1-44.5% (4.97 million votes)
Trump: 352 Electoral Votes

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

Mathematical Proof: the 2004 election was stolen
The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

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Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

## Probability Analysis: DNC, Wikileaks, Clinton Foundation suspicious deaths

Richard Charnin
Updated: 11/9/19

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

There were at least 21 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related deaths in 28 months from April 2016 to Aug 2018.  Of the 21 deaths, 17 were reported unnatural (one accident, 5 suicides, 11 homicides) and 4 were from natural causes (2 heart attack, 2 cancer). This update calculates the probabilities based on 1) the weighted average mortality rate of  the 17 unnatural deaths and 2) the assumption that the 17 were all homicides.

Based on circumstantial evidence, it is highly likely that many of the  accidents, suicides and  natural deaths were actually homicides. The 4 reported natural deaths were not included in the calculations.

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. Given unnatural death rate  R, the probability P of at least n deaths among a group of N individuals in T years is  P  = 1- poisson (n-1, E, true) where E=N*R*T.

This spreadsheet calculates the probability for any combination of N, n, R and T. Age-adjusted death rates were based on U.S. mortality/deaths by major causes

Assuming N=10,000  DNC/Wikileaks/Clinton Foundation related individuals, the probability of at least 17 homicides (R=0.00006) is 1 in 4.3 trillion (2.3E-13).
The probability of  1 accident, 5 suicides and 11 homicides (given the weighted unnatural rate R=0.00015) is 1 in 5.8 million.

Sensitivity Matrix: Probabilities of n=8 to 17 homicides for N= 10,000-50,000

 n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 8 1.1E-04 8.1E-03 6.4E-02 2.0E-01 4.0E-01 11 2.8E-07 1.6E-04 4.1E-03 2.8E-02 9.9E-02 14 3.5E-10 1.6E-06 1.3E-04 2.0E-03 1.3E-02 17 2.3E-13 8.1E-09 2.2E-06 7.8E-05 9.6E-04 1 in 4.3 trillion 124 million 464,000 12,700 1,044

Suspicious deaths
5 Wikileaks: Jones, Ratner,  McFayden, Smith, Dolan
7 Clinton Foundation: Flynn, Petersen, Eberwein, Lorich, Sherman (2), Cincinelli
4 DNC: Seth Rich, Montano, Lucas, Whisenant
6 Other: Ashe, Thorn, Rago, Smolek, Mostyn, Moore

2016 (10)
4/18  John JonesAssange lawyer, run over by train. Suicide?
5/11: Michael Ratner, Wikileaks NY lawyer, cancer.
6/22  John Ashe, former UN official.  Initially reported as a heart attack,  the official story changed to his accidentally dropping a barbell on his throat. Ashe was about to begin trial for a bribery charge involving Chinese businessman Ng Lap Seng, who had been implicated in the 1996 “China-gate” scandal  Ashe was supposed to testify about Clinton’s links to Ng Lap Seng. Accident?
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, writing for  Breitbart News, died of a heart attack within hours after reporting on the Clinton Foundation China connection.

7/10  Seth Rich, DNC e-mail leaker to Wikileaks, shot twice in back, died in hospital.

7/25: Joe Montano, 47, Chairman of DNC,  heart attack,  right after the WikiLeaks email dump proving the DNC sabotaged Bernie Sanders and handed the nomination to Hillary Clinton. No history of heart problems.
8/01 Victor Thorn,  author of books on Clintons, gunshots. Suicide?
8/02  Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs. Suicide?
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
Nov:  Monica Petersen, investigating CF child trafficking, found dead in Haiti. Suicide?

2017 (9)
May: Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach. Suicide?
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity. Suicide?
Joseph Rago, 34, WSJ reporter, asked Russians for info on Clinton,  Obama critic, found dead. Suicide?
Kurt Smolek, ties to PizzaGate and child trafficking ring in Cambodia, found dead in Potomac River. Suicide?
Nov: Steve Mostyn, 46, Texas-based trial lawyer,  member of George Soros-founded Democracy Alliance, major Democratic benefactor, died suddenly. Suicide?
Dec: Dr. Dean Lorich, surgeon, exposed Clinton Foundation corruption in Haiti, stabbed in chest. Suicide?
Barry and Honey Sherman. Originally declared a murder-suicide, investigators concluded it was a murder staged to look like a murder-suicide involving multiple perpetrators. Barry Sherman founded Apotex pharmaceutical company which supplied generic drugs to the Clinton foundation in Haiti and Rwanda. The Clinton Foundation was scandalized when it was discovered that AIDS drugs sent to the third world were watered-down.

2018
Jan: James Dolan, 36, Wikileaks developer. Suicide ?
Aug: Jen Moore, journalist of Clinton sex crimes, found dead in a DC hotel. Suicide?

2019
July: Salvatore Cincinelli, Supervisory FBI special agent who spearheaded many of the FBI’s high-profile and complex Wall Street investigations, including probing the finances of the Clinton Foundation. Reportedly shot and killed himself on a crowded night-club dance floor, according to top FBI insiders. Suicide?

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

Written By: Tracy Beanz

An amended complaint in a civil suit brings to light new information in the controversial death of DNC staffer Seth Rich

A newly filed amended complaint in a lawsuit brought against a litany of defendants, including Turner Broadcasting, Anderson Cooper and the NY Times, alleges that Ellen Ratner, a Fox News analyst and White House Correspondent for Talk Media News, met with Julian Assange in the Fall of 2016 and received information from Assange that Seth Rich and his brother Aaron were responsible for releasing the controversial DNC emails to Wikileaks for publication.

The lawsuit seeks damages for several claims, including defamation, business disparagement, malicious prosecution, and civil rights violations.

The amended complaint contains specific details of Butowsky’s interactions with Ratner. The complaint states the following: (RCH is abbreviated to mean “Russian Collusion Hoax”)

Mr. Butowsky stumbled into the RCH crosshairs after Ellen Ratner, a news analyst for Fox News and the White House correspondent for Talk Media News, contacted him in the Fall of 2016 about a meeting she had with Mr. Assange. Ms. Ratner’s brother, the late Michael Ratner, was an attorney who had represented Mr. Assange. According to Ms. Ratner, she made a stop in London during a return flight from Berlin, and she met with Mr. Assange for approximately six hours in the Ecuadorean embassy. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange told her that Seth Rich and his brother, Aaron, were responsible for releasing the DNC emails to Wikileaks. Ms. Ratner said Mr. Assange wanted the information relayed to Seth’s parents, as it might explain the motive for Seth’s murder. Upon her return to the United States, Ms. Ratner asked Mr. Butowsky to contact the Rich family and relay the information from Mr. Assange, apparently because Ms. Ratner did not want her involvement to be made public. In the two months that followed, Mr. Butowsky did not attempt to contact the Rich family, but he grew increasingly frustrated as the DNC and #Resistance “journalists” blamed the Russian government for the email leak.

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/03/insider-ed-butowsky-seth-richs-father-told-knew-sons/

Subpoenas issued for FBI, Crowdstrike and DNC : http://lawflog.com/?p=2177&fbclid=IwAR3AL2hiqAmRTo9B6oSCpeaBvCcuvI4NGTUcRrHGG5kwDOpCDqDx3jVKOsI

NSA FOIA Response reveals Seth Rich & Assange/Wikileaks communications are Classified

………………………………………………………………….

JFK WITNESS DEATHS

In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths:P= 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability P= 5.5E-47

Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 70 suspicious deaths
44 ruled unnatural (22 homicides, 11 accidents 11 suicides): P= 4.4E-41
Assuming 44 were homicides: P= 3.8E-66

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

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Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized

## Spreadsheet Links: JFK Witness Probability Database, True Vote Models, Unadjusted Exit Polls

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Posted by on November 1, 2013 in Uncategorized