Seth Rich/JFK Mortality Probability Calculator

Richard Charnin
Updated: 7/15/17

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume a random group of 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
-There were 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
The probability of at least 5 homicides in 3 months is 1 in 6.5 million.
– There were 12 suspicious deaths (8 homicides) in 15 months since April 2016.
The probability of at least 8 homicides in 15 months is 1 in 3.4 million.

2016
4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, ex-UN official, barbell fell on neck. He was going to testify on DNC and Clinton.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
2017
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

What is the probability that in a random group of N DNC/Wikileaks related individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years given group mortality rate R? Three (R, n, T) of the 4 parameters are known constants. The only unknown is N, the number of individuals in the study.
The expected number of unnatural deaths: E = N*R*T

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

There were 7 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in 3 months:
n = 7
R = 0.0002 (DC homicide rate; 135 homicides/681170 pop.)
T = 3 months (0.25 Year).
N = relevant DNC/Wikileaks population.
E = N*R*T =N*0.0002*0.25 (expected number of homicides).

Assume N = 1,000 DNC/Wikileaks related  persons, then for
n=3 homicides: P= 1 in 52 thousand
n=4 homicides: P= 1 in 4.2 million
n=5 homicides: P= 1 in 422 million
n=6 homicides: P= 1 in 51 billion
n=7 homicides: P= 1 in 7.2 trillion

Assume: n=7, T= 0.25 (3 months), R=0.0002 and
N= 500, P = 1 in 902.1 trillion
N= 1,000, P = 1 in 7.2 trillion
N= 3,000, P = 1 in 3.6 billion
N= 10,000, P = 1 in 1.1 million

Since N is unknown, let’s view a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS table over a range of N for n=5,6,7,8,9:

Probability of n homicides in a random group of
n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
5 0.02% 0.31% 1.41% 3.61%
6 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 1.20%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.34%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%

The analysis assumes the 7 DNC/Wikileaksdeaths were all homicides. If they were a combination of  homicides,  accidents,  suicides and heart attacks, we need to use a weighted mortality rate. This is conservative since “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides. The heart attack was also highly suspicious.

………………..National Weighted for T=.25 (3 months)
COD………. n Rate……… Rate
Accident.. 2 0.00038 0.00076
Suicide…. 1 0.00012 0.00012
Homicide. 3 0.00005 0.00015
Natural?.. 1 0.00173 0.00173 heart attack/cancer
Total…….7 0.00228 0.00039

For n=7, N= 1000, R = 0.00039, T = 0.25 (3 months)
Probability: P = 1 in 60 billion.

For n=5 homicides, N=1000, T= 0.27 (14 weeks), R = 0.00005
P = 1 in 275 billion

For n =7 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks), N=1000, T= 0.25, R = 0.00052
P = 1 in 8 billion.

For n=9 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks and 2 cancers):
R=0.0008, N=1000, T=0.5 (6 months)
P = 1 in 2.5 billion.

There were n=6 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in T=5 weeks (0.10 years). Mortality rate R=0.0002. Assuming a random group of N individuals, the probability that it was just a coincidence is
N Probability
500  1 in 900 trillion
1000 1 in 14 trillion
3000 1 in 20 billion
30000 1 in 32000

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Probability of 0-7 homicides in a random group of 40,000 over 3 months

JFK WITNESS DEATHS
In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths: 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability: 5.5E-47

Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 44 homicides, Probability = 4.7 E-60 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FmXudDf6pqisxq_mepIC6iuG47RkDskPDWzQ9L7Lykw/edit#gid=81

Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized