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2014 Election : Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Richard Charnin
Nov.8, 2014

2014 Election: Why won’t the National Election Pool Release UNADJUSTED exit polls?

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

The analysis of 1988-2014 election anomalies has been proven beyond any doubt that Election Fraud is systemic. If the Democrats or the Republicans were interested in fair elections, election fraud would have been eliminated long ago.  This is apparent based on the historic overview and analysis of election fraud.

In 2012,  the National Election Pool (NEP)  came to realize that unadjusted polls were a clear indicator of fraud  so they just stopped polling in 19 states. And we only have  adjusted state and national exit polls, so that the ability to prove election fraud based on unadjusted exit polls and true vote analysis is reduced.

It’s not just the exit polls that are manipulated. Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset, eliminating many new, mostly Democratic voters, as noted by  Jonathan Simon: Vote Counts and Polls: An Insidious Feedback Loop

The pattern is repeated in every election cycle:  a) Registered Voter (RV) pre-election polls  are reduced to a Likely Voter (LV) subset (eliminate many new Democratic voters) and b) unadjusted exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote (4-5% red-shift to GOP).

In 2014, the Republicans won the House recorded vote by 52.3-46.6%. According to the final, adjusted National Exit poll, they won by 51.9-46.1%. The .01% difference in margin was not due to perfect polling of a fraud-free election. It was due to the standard procedure of matching the exit poll to a fraudulent recorded vote.

Final vote shares were calculated for all 2014 National Exit Poll categories. But the actual exit poll responses are adjusted to match the recorded vote. UNADJUSTED STATE AND NATIONAL EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS FORCED TO MATCH THE RECORDED VOTE. But we never get to see the unadjusted polls until years later, if then.

Therefore, voters must demand to view the unadjusted exit polls (including polled precincts).  To paraphrase Alec Baldwin in Glengary Glen Ross: The unadjusted national exit polls are gold, but you don’t get them. They’re for closers (the corporate media).

2014 National House Exit Poll

Gender...Mix...Dem... Rep..Other Margin
Men......49.0% 41.0% 57.0% 2.0% 16.0%
Women....51.0% 51.0% 47.0% 2.0% 4.0%
Total..........46.1% 51.9% 2.0% 5.8%
Recorded.......46.6% 52.3% 1.1% 5.7%
Diff............0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%


The unadjusted national exit polls and the aggregate of state exit polls (adjusted only for state voting population) have closely matched the True Vote Model in all presidential elections since 1988. The True Vote Model has the Democratic margin at 53-41%; the unadjusted state and national exit polls are identical: 52-42%.

The Democrats won the 1988-2008 recorded vote by just 2% (48-46%). There is a consistent 8% exit poll margin discrepancy from the recorded vote. But we don’t have the unadjusted 2014 National Exit Poll. Based on 1988-2008 margins, 2014 would be expected to show a 50-48% unadjusted (true) Democratic margin- and eliminate the 4% red shift to the GOP.

 

This is an excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot) https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on November 8, 2014 in 2014 Elections, Election Myths

 

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Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Final Forecast: The 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Model

Richard Charnin
Nov.5, 2012

Click here to link to the model.

Are there any forecasters in the corporate media who discuss systemic election fraud and include a True Vote analysis in their models? I have not seen any. The pundits ignore election fraud completely by limiting their projections to the recorded vote. But they are missing the big story which can be expressed by the simple formula:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor

The forecast: Obama has 320.7 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 332 snapshot EV. His 99.4% win probability is based on 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations. His projected popular vote share margin is 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.

But the recorded vote is not the True Vote. The True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote. The True Vote Model indicates Obama would have approximately 371 EV, a 55% vote share and win by 74-59 million votes in a fraud-free election.

Obama’s 332 snapshot EV assumes he will win all the battleground states except for NC. The races are very close in CO (9), FL (29), NC (15), NH (4), NV (6), OH (18) WI (10), VA (13) and that is why the expected EV is just 320.7. But keep in mind that the projections are based on LV polls which a) always understate Democratic turnout and b) are at least partially based on previous election bogus recorded votes.

If FL, OH and NC are stolen, Obama will likely lose. Even though he won the True Vote, it was not enough to overcome the FRAUD FACTOR.

To the pundits, the Fraud Factor is zero. They are not paid to project the True Vote. Their projections are based on Likely Voter polls which are always close to the popular recorded vote. The public has always been led to believe that the recorded vote was in fact the True Vote. It never is. The historical uncounted votes which are 70-80% Democratic prove it. And there have been approximately 40-45 million uncounted ballots in the last six presidential elections – according to the U.S. Census. That’s the bad news.

The good news is that finally, after 12 long years, there is a near critical mass of election fraud awareness. The 2000 and the 2004 elections have been proven to be stolen. Of course, the media pundits know this. But they like their jobs too much to defy their editors.

But the word is finally getting out after decades of media silence and misinformation. Yes, it’s a conspiracy, all right – a conspiracy fact, not a theory. The simple fact is that the conspiracy is the media and politicians who have kept the facts about our broken electoral system hidden from the public. What is the proof? The proof is…they never talk about the millions of uncounted votes or the proprietary voting machines owned and serviced by right-wing organizations – who just so happen to also count the votes..

Unlike the other election forecasters in the media and academia, the 2012 True Vote/ Election Fraud Forecast model projects both the True Vote and the official Recorded vote.

– The Monte Carlo electoral vote simulation is based on the latest state likely voter (LV) polls.
– The True Vote Model is based on plausible turnout estimates of new and returning 2008 voters and corresponding vote shares.

The LV polls are based partially on a Likely Voter Cutoff Model which always reduces projected (Democratic) turnout. Another factor to keep inmind is that the polls are at least somewhat based on prior election recorded votes – which are themselves tainted.

Even so, Obama has a 99% probability of winning the Electoral Vote (EV). Models which indicate an 80% win probability based on the latest polls cannot be correct – probably because they include extraneous factor variables. An experienced modeler knows how to KISS (keep it simple stupid).

Only 500 election simulation trials are necessary to determine the EV win probability. Anything more than that is overkill. Calculating the expected EV does not require a million scenario combinations, either.

Assuming the polls, the state win probabilities p(i) can be calculated. The expected EV is just a simple summation based on the expected state electoral votes: Expected EV = ∑p(i)* EV(i), where i =1,51 states.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released

 
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Posted by on November 5, 2012 in 2012 Election

 

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Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

Voting Early (Paper Ballots) vs. Election Day (Machines)

This 2008 analysis compares exit poll discrepancies in states that voted early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots. Approximately 30% of the 131 million total votes were cast early. The exit poll red-shift to the GOP is negatively (-0.50) correlated to early mail or in-person voting (paper ballot). In other words, the unadjusted exit polls are a closer match to the recorded vote in early-voting states where, presumably, election fraud is minimal.

In general, exit poll discrepancies from the recorded vote (red-shift) are lower in states with a high percentage of early paper ballot voting. Conversely, states that utilize unverifiable DREs on Election Day have much higher exit poll discrepancies – as one would intuitively expect.

The 15 states with the highest early voting turnout had an average 2.3% red-shift. The 15 with the lowest early turnout had an average 6.8% red-shift.

For example, the states with the highest percentage of early/hand-delivered paper ballots early/hand-delivered paper ballots had tiny red-shifts (Pct,R/S): OR (100%,1.75%), WA (89%,0.54%) and CO (79%, -1.8%).

This scatter-chart shows that as the percentage of early (Vote-by-mail or hand-delivered) paper-ballots increase, the exit poll red-shift decreases. Note that the three points at the extreme right represent CO, WA, OR.

Approximately 30% of votes cast were mailed or hand-delivered and 7% of paper ballots were recorded late (absentee, provisional, etc.). The remaining 63% that were recorded on Election Day were a combination of DREs, Optical scanners and punch card machines. Since 30% of total votes cast in 2008 were on unverifiable DREs, then about 50% of Election Day voting was on DREs. And that explains why exit poll discrepancies were highest in states that only had Election Day voting.

Now what about the votes recorded AFTER Election Day – the Late (paper ballot) votes? How did the Democratic Late Vote share compare to the overall recorded vote? Not surprisingly, since late votes were cast on paper ballots (provisional, absentee, etc.), the Democrats did much better.

Proof: there were 121 million votes recorded before or on Election Day. Obama had 52.4%. But he had 59.2% of 10 million late recorded votes.

Here is the takeaway: If you have the option, vote early using paper ballots. Don’t wait until Election Day to vote in cyberspace. And lobby election officials to mandate that, at minimum, the paper ballots are hand counted in randomly selected precincts or counties.

Election activists who are opposed to voting early by mail or hand-delivered paper ballots should check out Oregon, Washington and Colorado. Oregon installed its vote-by-mail system in 1998. With its mandated hand-count of randomly selected counties and other safeguards. Since 2000, Oregon has by far the best record of all the battleground states based on various statistical measures of accuracy. Washington and Colorado have recently followed suit. Is it just coincidental that the three states with the highest early voting rates had the lowest exit poll discrepancies?

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on February 4, 2012 in 2008 Election

 

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How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

How the Final 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were forced to match the recorded vote

Richard Charnin

Jan. 6, 2011

This is a quick summary of the changes that were made to the unadjusted, pristine exit polls in order to force them to match the recorded vote.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National exit polls vs. recorded votes and National True Vote Model

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFIzSTJtMTJZekNBWUdtbWp3bHlpWGc&output=html

2000
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 1996’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Gore 48.4-47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents): Gore  48.5-46.4%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (57,866 respondents): Gore 50.8-44.4%.
True Vote Model:  Gore 51.6-44.7%.

2004
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2000’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry 48.3%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll (13660 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote Kerry had 47.8%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2000’ (3182 respondents). Kerry had 51.7%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76192 respondents). Kerry had 51.1%.
True Vote Model. Kerry had 53.6%.

Based on the 3182 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2000:
1- The unadjusted 2004 NEP implies that Gore had 47.8%, Bush 48.4%, Other 3.8%.
2- The Final 2004 NEP implies that Gore had 44.6%, Bush 51.8%, Other 3.6%.
But Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 and had 50.8% in the unadjusted exit poll.
The unadjusted 2004 exit poll understated Kerry’s True Vote share by nearly 2%.

2008
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Gender’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.7%.
Adjusted Final NEP ‘Voted 2004’ – forced to match the recorded vote. Obama had 52.9%.
Unadjusted NEP total (17836 respondents). Obama had 61.0%.
Unadjusted NEP ‘Voted 2004’ (4178 respondents). Obama had 58.0%.
Unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (82388 respondents). Obama had 58.1%.
True Vote Model. Obama had 58.0%.

Based on the 4178 respondents who were asked how they voted in 2004:
1- The unadjusted 2008 NEP implies that Kerry had 50.2%, Bush 44.6%, Other 5.2%.
This is close to the unadjusted 2004 NEP (Kerry 51.7%), but the 3rd party (Other) recorded share was 1.0%, a 4.2% discrepancy from the implied share.

2- The Final 2008 adjusted NEP implies that Kerry had 42.3%, Bush 52.6%, Other 4.6%.
This is far from the unadjusted and Final 2004 NEP (Kerry 48.3%).
The discrepancy is due to the Final 2008 NEP being forced match to the recorded vote.

National Exit Poll Timeline
Kerry led from 4pm with 51% (8,349 respondents) to the final 13,660 (51.7%). The exit pollsters had to switch 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders to Bush in order to force the Final NEP to match to the recorded vote.
Given his 51.7% share of 125.7 million votes cast, Kerry won by nearly 6 million votes. But the True Vote Model indicates he had 53.6% and won by 10 million.

11/3/04 1:24pm, Final National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3970_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

Unadjusted National Exit Poll, 13660 respondents
Sample Kerry Bush Other
13,660 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.7% 47.0% 1.3%

http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/cf/action/catalog/abstract.cfm?label=&keyword=USMI2004-NATELEC&fromDate=&toDate=&organization=Any&type=&keywordOptions=1&start=1&id=&exclude=&excludeOptions=1&topic=Any&sortBy=DESC&archno=USMI2004-NATELEC&abstract=abstract&x=32&y=9

11/2/04 12:22am, 13047 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/graphics/exitpolls_us_110204.gif

11/2/04 7:33pm, 11027 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3798_PRES04_NONE_H_Data.pdf

11/2/04 3:59pm, 8349 respondents
Kerry 51%; Bush 48%
http://www.richardcharnin.com/US2004G_3737_PRES04_NONE_H_Data-1.pdf

2004
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

2008
Final Exit Polls
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on January 7, 2012 in 2004 Election, 2008 Election

 

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The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

The Oregon Voting System: Statistical Evidence that it Works

Richard Charnin
Jan. 2, 2012
Updated: Jan. 27,2016

Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

As a result of large 1988-1996 election polling discrepancies, Oregon decided in 1998 to revamp its voting system. It introduced vote-by-mail/ hand-delivered paper ballots. A robust chain-of-custody and mandatory random vote recounts proved to be a powerful deterrence to election fraud. Pre-election and exit poll discrepancies were minimized.

This statistical analysis of Oregon’s voting history provides evidence that the vote-by-mail system introduced in 1998 has been a success.
http://richardcharnin.com/OregonVotingSystem.htm

Let’s first quickly review the 1988-2008 presidential election anomalies.

In 1988 Bush was the de-facto incumbent as Vice President. Dukakis led by 55.0-42.9% in the Oregon exit poll. He won the recorded vote by just 51.3-46.6% (a 7.4% margin discrepancy). Dukakis also won the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.0-49.0%. But Bush won the national recorded vote by 53.4-45.6%. It is very likely that the discrepancy was due to GOP fraud.

In 1992 Bush was the incumbent. Clinton led Bush by 49.3-25.7% in the Oregon exit poll but won the state recorded vote by just 42.5-32.5% (a 13.0% margin decline) .  Clinton led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 47.6-31.7%. He won the national recorded vote by 43.0-37.4%. The 10.5% discrepancy indicates that Bush tried unsuccessfully to steal the election.

In 1996 Clinton was the incumbent. He led Dole by 48.4-37.9% in the Oregon exit poll and won the state by 47.2-39.1%. He led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.2-39.8% and won the national recorded vote by nearly the same margin: 49.2-40.7%.

In 2000, Gore won Oregon by 47.0-46.5%. He led the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate by 50.8-44.5%. He won nationally by nearly the same margin (48.4-47.9%) and had 48.3% in the Battleground states. The National True Vote Model indicates that he won by 50-47%. Nader had 6% in Oregon and 3% nationwide. Allocating the 3% Nader share, Gore would have won Oregon by approximately 50-47.5%. He had 50.8% in the unadjusted state exit poll national aggregate.

The close match between Gore’s recorded vote, pre-election polls, exit polls and True Vote Model indicates that Oregon was representative of the True National Vote.

In 2004, Bush was the incumbent. Kerry led the state pre-election polls by 48-47% and was projected to win by 51-48%. He led the Oregon pre-election poll by 50-44% and was projected to win by 53.7-45.3%. He won Oregon by 51.3-47.2%, a 3.6% improvement in margin over Gore. Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.1-47.0% but lost the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. Kerry had 53.6% in the National True Vote Model – a 10 million vote margin.

Bush improved on his 2000 recorded vote share in the battleground states as well as in solidly Democratic New York. But unlike the many states which red-shifted to Bush, Oregon shifted from Gore to Kerry. Kerry’s Oregon margin was 3.7% higher than Gore’s. This was primarily due to Kerry’s 65-13% lead in returning Nader voters and 57-41% edge in new voters. Kerry’s Oregon share was close to his 52% pre-election poll as well as the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (51.1-47.6%).

The close match between Kerry’s Oregon recorded share (51.3%) and the aggregate of the state exit polls (51.1%) indicates that Oregon represented the True National Vote.

Therefore, it is clear that the election was stolen in the Battleground states and Oregon’s vote-by-mail system was virtually fraud-proof.

In 2008, McCain was the de-facto incumbent. Obama led 56-39% in the Oregon pre-election poll and won the state by a neaarly identical 56.7-40.4%. He had 58.4% in the post-election survey. The True Vote model indicated he won by 56.0-42.8%. Obama won the national recorded vote by 52.9-45.6%, a 9.5 million vote margin, but he had 58.0% in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate and 58% in the True Vote model. The triple match is powerful confirming evidence that the vote-by-mail system worked. Obama won the unadjusted National Exit poll (17836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. We can conclude that Oregon’s votes were counted accurately – unlike the other states.

The close match between Obama’s 2008 recorded vote (56.7%), unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (58.0%) and the National True Vote Model (58.0%) indicates that Oregon was representative of the national electorate.

In the 2010 Midterms, Ron Wyden (OR Dem Senate) won re-election with 57%, exactly matching the pre-election polls and Obama’s OR share. But popular progressive Democrats in other states (WI, IL and PA) all lost; their recorded vote shares were far below Obama, who won each state in a landslide.

How come Wyden won handily but other progressives lost in WI, PA, IL? Did it have something to do with Oregon’s unique early voting system (mail and in-person) and it’s mandated hand recounts?

To believe that Oregon’s mail-in/early voting system miscounted votes, one must also believe that Bush legitimately won all the battleground states and the national and state exit polls that showed Kerry winning were all wrong. But what if the exit polls were correct? What if the votes were miscounted? Then one would have to conclude that Oregon’s system worked. The other battleground states used electronic voting machines, punched cards and levers.

True Vote Methodology

The analysis tables provide a reasonable approximation of the National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares.
Given 2000 and 2004 votes recorded and cast, the True Vote calculation assumes:
1. Kerry and Gore had 75% of the uncounted (cast – recorded) votes
2. Annual 1.25% voter mortality (5% in the four years between elections)
3. Equal 98% turnout of returning 2000 voters in 2004.
4. Equal Gore and Bush returning voter defection rates (they cancel each other).
5. Kerry won returning Nader voters by 65-13% Bush based on the National Exit Poll.
6. New 2004 voters is 2004 votes cast less returning 2000 voters.
7. Kerry won new voters by 59-39%. His DNV share in each state is calculated as:
State DNV share = 0.59* (1+ state exit poll share – 0.5197)*new voters, where .5197 is Kerry’s unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share.

The simplifying assumption is that there was zero net defection of returning Gore and Bush voters. But the 12:22am National Exit Poll of 13,047 respondents indicates that 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry and only 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. The 2004 True Vote analysis shown below indicates that Kerry had a 53.7% national share assuming a net 2% defection as opposed to 53.3% assuming zero net defection.

Kerry True Vote Sensitivity Analysis

Two groups of three tables display the effect of various model input assumptions on Kerry’s vote share.

-New Voters and returning Nader/other voters
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground True Vote shares assuming he had 54-63% of new (DNV) voters and 61-69% of returning Nader/other voters. Kerry wins all scenarios.

-Returning Gore and Bush Voter Turnout
Three tables display Kerry’s National, Oregon and Battleground vote shares for 91-99% turnout of living Gore and Bush voters. Kerry wins all turnout scenarios.

Oregon vs. New York and California

National
In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 48.4-47.9%. In 2004 Bush won by 50.7-48.3% although returning Nader voters broke 65-13% for Kerry and he won new voters by 59-39%. That is not plausible.

Oregon
Gore won by 47.0-46.5%. With returning Nader and new voters breaking for Kerry, his recorded vote-count margin increased to 51.4-47.2%. That is plausible. Kerry led by 52.2-46.3% in the exit telephone poll. That is plausible.

New York
Gore won by 60.2-35.2%. Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded vote margin declined to 58.4-40.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 64.5-34.0% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

California
Gore won by 53.4-41.6%. Although returning Nader and new voters broke heavily for Kerry, his recorded margin declined to 54.3-44.1%. That is not plausible. Kerry led by 60.1-38.6% in the exit poll. That is plausible.

Why did Kerry’s margin increase in Oregon, a battleground state, and decline in strongly Democratic California and New York?

Why was the exit poll so far off in California (11.6% WPE)? The voting machine breakdown was 29% on touch screens, 66% on optical scanners and 4% on punch cards.

Why was the exit poll so far off in New York (12.2% WPE)? It voted exclusively on lever machines.

Why were the exit polls so far off in the Battleground states (7.5% WPE)? They voted on punched cards, levers, optical scanners and DREs.

Florida and Ohio

In Florida 2000, there were approximately 185,000 spoiled punch cards (under and over-punched). According to the Census, 43,000 more votes were cast than recorded. Where did the 142,000 extra votes come from? Bush won Florida by 537 votes.

In Florida 2004, according to the Census, approximately 238,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. How many were uncounted? Bush won by 380,000 votes.

In Ohio 2004, according to the Census, 143,000 more votes were recorded than cast, indicating net stuffed ballots. Approximately 300,000 ballots were uncounted (see Was the 2004 Election Stolen? by RFK, Jr.) How many votes were switched? Bush won by 119,000 votes.

Oregon’s Pre-Election Polls Uniquely Matched the Recorded and True Vote

Final state pre-election polls were virtually all Likely Voter (LV) subsets of the full Registered Voter (RV) samples. Likely Voter subsets largely exclude “new” voters: first-timers and others who did not vote in the prior election. The Democrats won ‘new voters’ by an average 14% margin before Obama’s whopping 44%.

Projections that ignore RV polls and focus solely on LV polls will inevitably underestimate the Democratic share, especially in heavy-turnout elections such as 2004 and 2008. In 2004, final pre-election projections were based on LV polls which understated voter turnout by 6%. Virtually all online political sites displayed LV polls (not RVs) and failed to allocate undecided voters.

Mainstream pollsters allocated 65-90% of undecided voters to Kerry. His projected national LV poll share was 1-2% lower than the projected RV share. In New York and California, pre-election poll projections were a virtual match to the recorded vote-count share. But they were 5-6% below Kerry’s exit polls and True Vote shares. The same LV/RV mismatch occurred in 2008. Obama had a 53% projection based on LV polls but had 57% based on RV national polls after allocating undecided voters.

Voting by mail results in high turnout, so the pre-election polls are RVs by definition. Kerry led by 50-44% in the final poll. After the undecided voter allocation (UVA), he was projected to win by 53-45%, matching the True Vote Model and within 1.6% of his recorded share. In the final weeks prior to the 2004 and 2008 elections, national LV polls were displayed on political websites; many did not allocate undecided voters.

Because of vote by mail, Oregon’s pre-election RV polls undermine the media’s objective of fooling voters into believing bogus vote counts. The media primes voters before the election with LV-only projections and then covers up the fraud with final exit polls that are forced to match the vote miscounts.

1988 – 2008: Patterns of Discrepancies Before and After Voting-By-Mail

Before Mail-In Ballots

1988 – Bush was Vice President. Dukakis had 51.3% in Oregon and 45.7% National.
He did 3.2% better in the OR exit poll.
1992 – Bush was President. Clinton had 42.5% in Oregon and 43.0% National.
He did 5.1% better in the OR exit poll.
1996 – Clinton was President. He had 47.2% in Oregon and 49.2% National.
He did 2.2% better in the OR exit poll.

After Mail-In Ballots

2000 – Clinton was President. Gore had 47.0% in Oregon and 48.4% National.
2004 – Bush was President. Kerry had 51.3% in Oregon and 48.3% National.
2008 – Bush was President. Obama had 58.4% in Oregon and 52.9% National.

Is it just a coincidence that when Clinton was the incumbent, there was just a 1.7% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
Is it just a coincidence that when Bush was the incumbent, there was a 3.5% deviation between the Oregon and National vote shares?
If the True Vote Model is correct and Oregon reflects the national electorate, then what does that tell us about the electoral system?

Oregon County Vote Change Correlation

Since Oregon switched to mail-in ballots in 1998, there has been a noticeable decline in the volatility of changes in county vote shares from election to election. Before the switch to mail, there was a 0.93 correlation between 1996 and 2000 county vote share and a 5.0% standard deviation. After the switch, there was a near-perfect 0.98 correlation between 2000 and 2004 county vote shares and a lower 2.2% standard deviation in percentage vote change. There was an even better 0.99 correlation for 2004 and 2008. along with a very low 1.5% standard deviation in percentage vote change. The system is getting better and better.

The statistical analysis makes intuitive sense. Since the battleground states closely mirror the national electorate as by definition, Oregon’s recorded vote share should have been close to the other battleground states. But it was the only state that deviated sharply to Kerry. Oregon’s voting system is transparent. Optically scanned machine counts are verified by random hand-counts. Washington has also recently implemented a mail-in system.

Touch screen voting machine precincts avoid paper ballots; votes can be switched locally or at the invisible central tabulators. Optical scanners are a step in the right direction, but the system is ripe for fraud without a system similar to Oregon’s mandated random hand-count of selected precincts. Punch card machines can be rigged to void votes by double and triple-punching the ballots after the polls close – as occurred in Florida 2000. Corrupt election officials are quick to blame “stupid” voters for not properly filling out h the ballots.

Lever machines in NY, CT and PA did not use paper ballots; too few machines are placed in heavily Democratic precincts; defective machines that break down cause voters to leave the precinct; levers were “stuck” for Bush in 2004; lever gears can be shaved. Most important, tabulation of the votes is done on computers.

In NY, Gore, Kerry and Obama each enjoyed a 7% higher late (paper ballot) vote share than they did on Election Day levers. What does that tell us?

Here is an amazing statistic that very few are even aware of: Obama had 52% of the 121 million votes recorded on Election Day but he had a whopping 59% of the 10 million (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day. What are the odds of the 14% discrepancy? It’s like a 10 million sample-size exit poll.

Kerry won new voters by 59-39% and returning Nader voters by 65-13%. In order to believe the recorded vote, you must also believe that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at a much higher rate than Bush voters to Kerry. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, 10% of Bush and 8% of Gore voters defected.

The above analysis indicates that Oregon’s mail-in system works just fine. Interested readers who find flaws in the assumptions, logic or math should present their findings to the author.

Those opposed to 100% paper ballot voting by mail or hand-delivery cite these advantages in precinct voting: a) voters meet friends and make new ones, b) taking time off from work to vote, c) projecting a patriotic image by voting in full view, d) looking smart by touching the computer screen, e) exercising their legs while waiting to vote and f) getting free coffee.

If you believe the recorded 2004 vote was accurate in the battleground states, then you must also believe that…
1- Bush won a fair election.
2- Electronic and mechanical voting machines accurately counted the votes.
3- There is no proof of election fraud.
4- Election reform efforts are a waste of time.
5- There is nothing wrong with the national voting system.

6- Oregon’s voting system was rigged for Kerry since it was the only battleground state he won that shifted to him from Gore.
7- Pre-election state and national polls that projected Kerry would win by 51-48% after undecided voters were allocated were wrong.
8- Unadjusted and preliminary state and national exit polls that had Kerry winning by 5-7% were wrong.
9- The Oregon telephone survey that showed Kerry winning a 52.3% share was wrong.
10- Either returning Nader voters defected to Bush and/or he won a majority of new voters and/or more returning Gore voters than Bush voters defected.

11 -The National Exit Poll which had Kerry winning returning Nader voters by 65-13% and new voters by 59-39% was wrong.
12- The Oregon vote was padded for Kerry (51.4%) and Obama (56.7%).
13- Election officials in Florida, Ohio, NY and other states did a great job in making sure that the voting machines were not tampered with.
14- A problem with vote by mail is the elimination of exit polls even though they are usually wrong.
15- The True Vote Model is flawed since it closely matched the unadjusted National, Oregon and Battleground exit polls.

16- There is nothing wrong with the standard policy of forcing final state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote.
17- Final adjusted 1992, 2004 and 2008 National Exit Polls were correct: there were millions more returning Bush voters from the prior election than were alive.

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded: 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 
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Posted by on January 2, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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My 2003 Open Letter to Jimmy Carter

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104×133427

Dear President Carter:

This is a plea: you may be our democracy’s last hope..

As one of the most trusted and respected Americans, you have monitored elections in other countries. America now needs your help in what many are afraid is an impending election disaster – a fraud of unimaginable proportions.

Computer touch-screen voting machines are about to be installed throughout the nation. They have been determined by Johns Hopkins computer scientists and many others to have built-in software and hardware security flaws which can be exploited in many different ways to defraud voters and change the results of an election.

These machines were used in 2002 Senate elections. Over 22,000 Diebold machines were installed in Georgia. The results of the elections raised eyebrows. The deviations from final polling results were astounding and defied historical precedent. The popular pollster Zogby claimed he had never seen last minute tunarounds like those which occurred in a number of hotly contested Senate and Governor races. And all the turnarounds favored the Republicans. The odds of this happening in a fair election are staggeringly low.

We need your voice to fight for our most important freedom: the right to have our votes counted fairly, with maximum built-in security checks to prevent fraud. Until now, all voting machine software code has been proprietary; there are no redundancy audit checks and paper trails. The potential for fraud cannot be overstated. The 2004 elections will be the most important of our lifetime. This is the first time in history that a large segment of the population is expecting that the Presidential election will be stolen. Chaos will reign if nothing is done. We were in quiet shock in Dec. 2000 when the Supreme Court installed Bush. We will no longer remain quiet.

President Carter, we ask that you provide one final great service to your nation: you must speak out NOW in calling for fraud-proof, audited voting machines. If we cannot have them by the election, then only PAPER BALLOTS will do. The time is growing short; the machines are already bought and paid for; thoughts of greed, not democracy, promotes their rapid installation. We ask that you monitor OUR elections this time, but not before we have FULL confidence that these machines will not be programmed to manipulate votes.

As a nuclear engineer/physicist and humanitarian, no one is more qualified or respected than you are to provide the moral leadership required in getting this issue before the American public at this critical time. Your voice is too powerful to be muffled; you must realize the extent of our fears and the power of your bully pulpit.

President Carter, your voice MUST be heard. This nation will rupture if there is widespread disbelief in the fairness of the election results. We shall never forget the 2000 Presidential election fiasco.

Al Gore should be in the White House today; that is beyond question. We were fooled once; we must not be fooled again.

Yours truly,
An American voter

 
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Posted by on January 1, 2012 in Uncategorized

 

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Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Why Do All Election Forecasters, Political Scientists, Academics and Media Pundits Avoid the Systemic Fraud Factor?

Richard Charnin
Updated: August 26, 2013

Look inside the books:
Proving Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

It’s about time that the so-called experts who promote overly complex or overly simplistic pre and post election models started to apply the scientific method. They need to do a robust probability and statistical analysis, including the election fraud factor in historical regression factor analyses and polling models.

Election forecasters and political scientists implicitly assume that the recorded vote is equal to the True Vote; they never consider Systemic Election Fraud. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. The proof is simple and self-explanatory. According to the US Census, there were 80 million more votes cast then recorded in the 1968-2008 presidential elections. The uncounted votes were a combination of spoiled, provisional and absentee ballots. And the vast majority (70-80%) of them were, not surprisingly, Democratic. Therefore, the recorded vote has never represented the will of the electorate. And the historical election data that is accepted as conventional wisdom is based on uncounted and miscounted votes.

Media pundits and political scientists never question the unscientific and faith-based practice of forcing the exit polls to match the recorded votes. Even when the adjustments are mathematically impossible.

Historical evidence indicates that since 1988, Democratic presidential vote shares are always reduced by 3-5%. The Democrats won the average unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by a massive 52-42% margin, but their recorded vote margin was just 48-46%. The True Vote Model confirms the exit polls. The TVM indicates that they won by 53-41%. There were comparable deviations in senate, congressional and gubernatorial elections.

Unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote data is provided in 1988-2008 State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls. The data source is the Roper UConn Center site.

Prior to 2004 the exit poll discrepancies were primarily due to uncounted ballots in heavily Democratic districts. But the 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA) resulted in the installation of thousands of unverifiable, proprietary voting machines vulnerable to computer hacking and malicious coding.

It is often stated that exit polls were accurate in elections prior to 2004 and have deviated sharply from the recorded vote since. That is a canard. State and national UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS ARE ALWAYS ADJUSTED to match the RECORDED vote. That’s why they APPEAR to have been accurate.

RECORDED votes have deviated sharply from the UNADJUSTED exit polls (and the TRUE VOTE) in EVERY election since 1968. UNADJUSTED exit polls have ALWAYS been quite accurate to within a 1-2% margin of error and closely matched the True Vote Model in each of the 1988-2008 elections. The reason FINAL state and national exit poll matched the RECORDED vote was because they were FORCED to do so. It’s standard policy on the part of the pollsters. But the recorded vote has NEVER reflected true voter intent due to UNCOUNTED and STUFFED ballots and MALICIOUSLY programmed electronic voting machines.

Let’s see how the 2004 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote. Kerry won the state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5% (3.6% margin). The NEP was adjusted to match the recorded vote by assuming nearly 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were alive in 2004.

Here is the proof: The 2004 National Exit Poll (NEP) is a subset of the state polls. The unadjusted NEP showed that Kerry won by a 4.8% margin. Bush had 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died, so at most there were 48 million returning Bush voters – but not all returned to vote. Assuming 98% of living Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004, then there were 47 million returning Bush voters (38.4% of 122.3 million 2004 voters). But according to the adjusted NEP, there were 52.6 million returning Bush voters (43% of the voters).

There is a major disconnect here; we have just shown that there were approximately 47 million. So where did the 5.6 (52.6-47) million Bush voters come from? The bottom line: In order to adjust the National Exit Poll to conform to the recorded vote, there had to be 5.6 million phantom Bush voters. Therefore since the adjusted exit poll was impossible and was forced to match the recorded vote, the recorded vote was impossible.

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (13660 RESPONDENTS)
13660.. Kerry Bush...Other
Sample 7,064 6,414 182
Share 51.71% 46.95% 1.33%

UNADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other

DNV. 23,116 18.4% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 48,248 38.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 49,670 39.5% 10% 90% 0%
Other 4,703 3.70% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 51.75% 46.79% 1.46%
Votes 125,737 100% 65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 TRUE VOTE MODEL (12:22am vote shares)
(returning voters based on 2000 True Vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8% 57% 41% 2%
Gore 52,055 41.4% 91% 8% 1%
Bush 47,403 37.7% 10% 90% 0%
Other 3,898 3.10% 64% 17% 19%
Share 125,737 100% 53.57% 45.07% 1.36%
Votes 125,737 100% 67,362 56,666 1,709

ADJUSTED 2004 NATIONAL EXIT POLL (final adjusted vote shares)
(impossible 110% Bush 2000 voter turnout; forced to match recorded vote)
2000 Turnout Mix Kerry Bush Other Alive Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17.0% 54% 44% 2% – –
Gore 45,249 37.0% 90% 10% 0% 48,454 93%
Bush 52,586 43.0% 9% 91% 0% 47,933 110% impossible
Other 3,669 3.00% 64% 14% 22% 3,798 97%
Share 122,294 100% 48.27% 50.73% 1.00%
Votes 122,294 100% 59,031 62,040 1,223

Let’s now consider how two National Exit Poll categories were adjusted to match the recorded vote.
1) Bush Approval – Eleven (11) final national pre-election polls gave Bush a 48% approval rating. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) indicated that 50.3% approved. But in the adjusted Final National Exit Poll, Bush approval was increased to 53% to force a match to the recorded vote.

2) Party-ID – The unadjusted state exit polls indicated a 38.8-35.1-26.1% Dem/Rep/Ind split. The adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll had an impossible 37-37-26%. Consider that in 2000, the Party ID split was 39-35-26%. But the vast majority of new 2004 voters were Democrats. The 37-37-26% was a fudge to force a match to the recorded vote.

This graph shows a near-perfect correlation between Bush’s 2004 unadjusted state exit poll vote shares, approval ratings and Party-ID:
2004 Correlation Analysis

The Ultimate Smoking Gun

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, 135 of 274 unadjusted state exit polls exceeded the margin of error. The probability is ZERO. The largest discrepancies occurred in 2008 (the MoE was exceeded in 37 states). Of the 135 exit polls that exceeded the MoE, 131 red-shifted to the Republican. The probability that this was a random occurrence is ZERO. The one-sided red shift from the exit polls to the vote is proof beyond any doubt of systemic election fraud.

The 1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model (TVM)

The TVM allows one to run scenarios over a range of assumptions of prior election voter turnout in the current election and incremental changes in current election (NEP) vote shares:
1988-2008 Presidential True Vote Model

Pre-election Likely Voter Polls

The experts and pundits claim that likely voter (LV) pre-election polls have been very accurate in matching the recorded vote. But they don’t tell you that votes are miscounted in every election. Or that their predictions failed to include the majority of newly registered Democratic voters who did not pass the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) screen.

They also claim that registered voter polls (RV) don’t reflect actual voter turnout. That is only partially true; not all registered voters turn out. But they don’t tell you that predictions based on RV polls (after allocating undecided voters) closely matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004, 2006 and 2008.

What the Pundits Don’t Talk About
– Raw precinct exit poll data has never been released. Voter confidentiality is a non-issue.
– Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote even if the adjustments (i.e. returning voter mix) are physically and mathematically impossible.
– 19 states are no longer exit polled.
– Democrats won the unadjusted 1988-2008 exit polls by 52-42% – and the recorded vote by 48-46%
– 232 of 274 state presidential exit polls red-shifted to the GOP in 1988-2008
– 135 of 274 exit polls exceeded the MoE. Probability ZERO (14 expected).
– 131 of the 135 red-shifted to the GOP. Probability ZERO E-116
– Voting machines are rigged to switch votes with proprietary coding.
– 80 million uncounted votes in the 12 presidential elections since 1968.
– 11 million uncounted votes in 1988 may have cost Dukakis the election.
– 6 million uncounted votes cost Al Gore the 2000 election.
– Unadjusted exit polls show that the 1988, 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
– 2004 NEP required 6 million phantom Bush 2000 voters (110% turnout).
– Democratic landslides were denied in 2006, 2008, 2012.
– Obama had 61% in the 2008 unadjusted National Exit Poll and a 52.9% recorded vote.
– Obama had 58% in the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls and a 58% True Vote.
– In 2012, Obama led 50.3-48% on Election Day (117 million votes); he won 12 million late paper ballot votes by 58-38%. Votes were stolen on voting machines.
– Senate and Governor races were likely stolen in 2010.
– Corporate Media never reports on documented evidence of Election Fraud,
– Media pundits only discuss non-existent Voter Fraud.
– The LV subset of RV pre-election polls always understates the Democratic vote.

But they talk about voter suppression as if it is the only problem that needs to be addressed.
Demographic trends based on bogus, adjusted NEP crosstabs which all understate the Democratic vote.

They claim that in the 2006 midterms, the Democrats won the House by 52-46% (230-205 seats). But they never mention that the Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic Polls. The trend line predicted a 56.4% share – exactly matching the unadjusted National Exit Poll. Approximately 20 House seats were stolen (primarily in FL, OH, NM and IL). The landslide was denied.

They claim that the 2008 pre-election LV polls predicted Obama’s 52.9-45.6% recorded share – a 9.5 million vote margin. But they don’t tell you that RV polls projected that he would win by 57-41%. Or that he had a 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate share – a 22 million vote margin. Or that he had a massive 61% in the unadjusted NEP (17836 respondents).

They don’t mention that in order to match the recorded vote, the Final 2008 NEP required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters – or 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Or that the Final indicated there were 5 million returning third party voters – even though only 1.2 million were recorded in 2004.

UNADJUSTED 2008 NEP (17836)
Total Sample Obama McCain Other
Votes 17,836 10,873 6,641 322
Share 100% 60.96% 37.23% 1.81%

UNADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(exact match to TVM & unadjusted state exit polls)
Voted 2004 2008

2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other
DNV …… 17.7 13.4% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 50.2% 57.1 43.4% 89.0% 9.0% 2.0%
Bush 44.6% 50.8 38.6% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other 5.20% 5.90 4.50% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 58.0% 40.3% 1.7%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.3 53.0 2.2

2008 TRUE VOTE MODEL
(returning voters based on 2004 True Vote)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV …… 15.3 11.6% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 53.7% 62.4 47.5% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 45.3% 52.6 40.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 1.0% 1.20 0.90% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100% 58.0% 40.4% 1.6%
Votes 100% 131.5 131.5 76.2 53.2 2.1

ADJUSTED 2008 NATIONAL EXIT POLL
(forced to match recorded vote; impossible no. returning Bush voters)
Voted 2004 2008
2004 Implied Votes Mix Obama McCain Other

DNV ….. 17.2 13.0% 71.0% 27.0% 2.0%
Kerry 42.5% 48.6 37.0% 89.0% 9.00% 2.0%
Bush. 52.9% 60.5 46.0% 17.0% 82.0% 1.0%
Other. 4.6% 5.3 4.00% 72.0% 26.0% 2.0%
Total 100% 131.5 100.0% 52.9% 45.6% 1.5%
Votes 100% 131.5 100% 69.5 59.9 2.0

They fail to question the 2010 midterms. The Democrats easily won the unadjusted Governor exit polls in Florida and Ohio – but lost the elections. Giannoulias won the Illinois Senate exit poll – and lost the election. Sestak lost in Pennsylvania after leading in the exit polls.

They never discuss the evidence which proves that Obama’s 2008 True Vote was reduced by a 5% fraud factor. Considering that the 1988-2008 average Democratic True Vote margin was reduced from 10% to 2% by election fraud, Obama needs 55% just to break even in 2012. He needs another landslide to overcome the fraud factor.

What the Pundits should be doing
– Use votes cast in their analysis (i.e. stipulate uncounted votes).
– Employ reasonable forecast assumptions using both RV and LV polls.
– Indicate that LV polls are a subset of RV polls.
– Note the Likely Voter Cutoff Model’s built-in bias against new voters.
– Allocate undecided and uncounted votes.
– Use voter mortality rates before estimating new and returning voter turnout.
– Use correlation analysis: exit polls, approval ratings, Party-ID.
– Question why exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
– Question why the NEP indicates more returning voters than are living.

Historical Overview

– In 1988, Dukakis won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (11,645 respondents) by 49.6-48.4% (11,645 respondents). He won the exit polls in the battleground states by 51.6-47.3%. But Bush won by 7 million recorded votes. There were 11 million mostly Democratic uncounted votes.

– In 1992, Clinton won the unadjusted state exit polls (54,000 respondents) by 18 million votes (47.6-31.7%). He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (15,000 respondents)by 46.3-33.4%. He had 51% in the True Vote Model (TVM). But his recorded margin was just 5.6 million (43.0-37.5%). The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. It implied a 119% turnout of living 1988 Bush voters. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

– In 1996, Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls (70,000 respondents) by 16 million votes (52.6-37.1%). His recorded margin was 8 million (49.2-40.8%). He had 53.6% in the TVM. The Final National Exit Poll (NEP) was forced to match the recorded vote. There were 10 million uncounted votes. The landslide was denied.

– In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 6 million votes (50.8-44.4%). He had 51.5% in the TVM. He won the recorded vote by just 540,000. There were 6 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

– In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.5%. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%, a 6 million vote margin. He had 53.6%, a 10 million vote margin, in the True Vote Model But he lost by 3.0 million recorded votes. There were 4 million uncounted votes. The election was stolen.

To Believe Bush Won Fairly You Must Believe…

– In 2008, Obama won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.3%, a 23 million vote margin – a near-exact match to the TVM. He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by a whopping 61-37%. Officially, he had 52.9% and won by 9.5 million votes. The landslide was denied.

2004 Election Model Graphs

National Polling Trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National Poll Trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

 
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Posted by on November 22, 2011 in Media

 

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