RSS

Tag Archives: true vote

2016 Election: Introduction to my upcoming book

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Introduction

The mainstream media pundits claim that Clinton won the primary and presidential election by three million votes. It’s a myth. The pundits fail to consider the FACT that the recorded vote is ALWAYS fraudulent. A True Vote Model analysis indicates Trump won the popular as well as the electoral vote.

The pundits always assume that the recorded vote is accurate but never consider the fraud factor. The historical statistical evidence is conclusive: every election is fraudulent. The recorded vote is NEVER equal to the true vote.
The establishment-dominated media was in the tank for Hillary Clinton in the primary and general elections.

The claim that Clinton won the popular vote is quoted ad nauseam in the media, academia and by corrupt politicians. They persist in promoting the fully discredited meme of Russian “hackers” stealing the election from Clinton. But there is not one iota of proof. The Russians had nothing to do with it. Included in the appendix are two memos from the Veteran Intelligence Professional for Sanity (VIPS) to Obama and Trump which prove that the Russians did not hack the vote. Election Fraud is always an inside job.

Sanders and Trump drew much larger crowds than Clinton. They won the unscientific online polls by large margins. Trump’s Republican base was solid. Clinton’s Democratic base was fractured by defecting Sanders voters.

Millions of Sanders primary voters stayed home or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump. Trump won Independents by a solid majority (at least 8% higher than Clinton). There was a surge of late deciders to Trump after Labor Day.

Former interim Democratic National Committee chairwoman Donna Brazile delivered a bombshell in her new book “Hacked”. She claimed that the Hillary Clinton campaign seized control of the Democratic Party as far back as August 2015. Well, this was not a bombshell to researchers who have claimed that the primary was rigged from Day One.

In 77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud, I provided mathematical evidence that the primary was rigged for Clinton. The exit poll discrepancies were in one direction only: they showed that Sanders did consistently better in the polls than the recorded vote. It was solid proof that the primaries were rigged.

But just because the unadjusted exit polls were quite accurate in prior elections and the 2016 primary does not mean they were in the presidential election.

The six media corporations (the National Election Pool) who fund exit pollster Edison Research had to show that Clinton won the unadjusted polls to support her win of the bogus recorded popular vote.

My Election Model forecast that Trump would win 306 recorded electoral votes was based on adjustments to nine final pre-election polls. The forecast indicated that he would have 350 True EV in a fraud-free election.

The 2008, 2012, 2016 pre-election models exactly forecast the recorded electoral votes.

In 2016, Democratic Party-ID was over-weighted in the pre-election and exit polls at the expense of Independents. But a post-election exit poll analysis based on Gallup-adjusted voter affiliation confirmed the forecast model in which Trump did much better than the unadjusted exit polls indicated. The Gallup national voter affiliation survey showed that Independents comprised 41% of the electorate on Election Day, along with 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans.

Analysis of presidential elections from 1988-2008 indicated that exit poll discrepancies (“red-shift”) favored Republican candidates in every election. The accuracy of unadjusted exit polls was confirmed using True Vote Models. But the models could not confirm the unadjusted polls in 2016.

What if the pollsters had to show that Clinton won the exit polls to cover up that she rigged the election? Since the exit posters always force state and national unadjusted exit polls to match the bogus recorded vote, why trust them to do unbiased polling in the general election? They never provide precincts polled and actual respondent data. To assume that the unadjusted exit polls were pristine in 2016 just because they were fairly accurate in prior elections is not logical.

Advertisements
 
1 Comment

Posted by on November 13, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , ,

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Sept.24, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% (137.5 million) of 157.6 million registered voters cast ballots, the same turnout as in the 1996-2016 elections. There were 136.2 million votes recorded – a 1% difference. In 1996-2016, there was a 3% difference between votes cast and recorded.

According to the Gallup Voter Preference Survey, on Election Day, 39.8% were Independents, 31.9% Democrats and 28.3% Republicans.

Assume registered voter turnout of
– 87% Independents
Trump won Independents by 8%. Pre-election polls indicate he won by 10%.

– 85% Democrats
(6% stayed home – or 12% of Sanders voters).
Clinton had 88% of Dems – but that assumes Jill Stein had just 2%.
Jill probably had more.

– 91% Republicans
Trump had 89%. Johnson took away votes.

Result: Trump wins by 47.6-45.2% (3.4 million votes)
Stein has 2.9% (4 million) compared to her 1.07% recorded vote (1.45 million).
So the following is CONSERVATIVE. Trump probably did better.

Party Turnout Voted….Clinton….Trump… Johnson… Stein….Other
Ind… 87%…….34.4%…….40%…….48%…….4.0%….5.0%…3.0%
Dem… 85%……27.1%…….88%……..8%…….1.0%….2.0%…1.0%
Rep… 91%…….25.7%……..7%…….89%…….3.0%….1.0%…0.0%

Vote..87.3%…….. 100%……45.2%…..47.6%……2.8%….2.9%…1.5%
Votes………………137.5……62.15…..65.51……3.81…..3.97…2.05
Recorded
Share………….. 136.22…..48.25%….46.17%…..3.29%…1.07%..1.23%
Votes…………….. 136.22…..65.72…..62.89……4.48……1.45…1.67

Sensitivity Analysis
(Trump wins all 25 turnout scenarios- see spreadsheet tables)
Trump Vote Margin
Best case: 4.9 million (48.2-44.7%)
Base case: 3.35 million (47.6-45.2%)
Worst case: 1.8 million (47.1-45.8%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=610568510

 

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on September 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

2016 Election: illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

According to Greg Palast, least one million Democratic minority voters were disenfranchised via Crosscheckwhich eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Vote flipping on maliciously coded, proprietary voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Uncounted votes (spoiled ballots, disenfranchised voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

Assume 12 million uncounted: 85% to Clinton 
(2 million illegal, 5 million flip)
Trump still wins: 69.4-69.2 million (47.48-47.32%)

………..Total………Clinton….Trump……Other
Vote…..136.2……..65.7………62.9………7.6
Pct……,,100%..,….48.3%…..46.2%……5.6%

Illegal… 2.0…….  -1.70…..  -0.30…………0 non-citizens
Unctd…..7.0………5.95……..1.05…………0 disenfranchised 
Flip……..5.0…….  -5.0……….5.0………….0 voting machine

Net……141.2……64.9…….68.7………7.6
Adjusted………..46.0%….48.6%……5.4%

Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Best case: (9% flip, 90% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/millennials-make-up-almost-half-of-latino-eligible-voters-in-2016/ph_election-2016_chap1-chart-08/

Total Clinton Trump Other
Recorded vote 136.2 million 65.7 62.9 7.6
48.25% 46.17% 5.59%
Illegal 2.0 -1.7 -0.3 0
Uncounted 7.0 5.95 1.05 0
Vote Flip 5.0 -5.0 5.0 0
Adjusted 141.22 64.9 68.7 7.6
  46.0% 48.6% 5.4%
7.0 million uncounted 85% to Clinton
Illegals to 
Clinton
 
  80% 85% 90%
Flip to Clinton   Trump Vote
9% 69.20 69.30 69.40
8% 68.57 68.67 68.77
7% 67.94 68.04 68.14
Vote Flip   Trump Vote
9% 49.00% 49.07% 49.14%
8% 48.56% 48.63% 48.70%
7% 48.11% 48.18% 48.25%
Vote Flip   Clinton vote
9% 45.61% 45.54% 45.47%
8% 46.06% 45.98% 45.91%
7% 46.50% 46.43% 46.36%
Vote Flip   Trump margin
9% 4.79 4.99 5.19
8% 3.53 3.73 3.93
7% 2.27 2.47 2.67
 
1 Comment

Posted by on September 20, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , ,

Trump won the True vote; Clinton won the Fraudulent Recorded vote

Richard Charnin
June 24, 2017
Updated: July 10,2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Hillary Clinton’s 2.9 million recorded vote margin is a myth. The simple proof: ALL elections are fraudulent. THE RECORDED VOTE IS NEVER EQUAL TO THE TRUE VOTE. Mainstream media pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton.  

She won the Recorded Vote 48.3-46.2% . Trump had 306 EV. The True Vote Model indicates that Trump won by 48-44% (5 million votes) with 351 EV. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

1988-2012: Democrats won the True Vote and the unadjusted exit polls 52-42%. They won the recorded vote by 48-46%. They won the True Vote in every election. The exit polls and the True Vote Model indicated that the 1988,2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

So what changed in 2016? The establishment was in the tank for Clinton. The pre-election and exit polls were biased in her favor. Trump won the primaries easily; Clinton had to cheat Bernie. Trump and Bernie drew big crowds, Clinton drew small crowds. Trump and Bernie won (non-scientific) online debate polls by large margins.

2016 Democratic primary: 11 of 26 unadjusted exit polls exceeded the MoE for Sanders. Odds against: 79 billion to one.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/democratic-primaries-election-fraud-probability-analysis/

2016 Election: Clinton led 9 pre-election polls by 2.5% – exactly matching the recorded vote.
Pre-election polls were rigged for Clinton. Democratic Party ID was inflated.
True National Party ID was 40-I-32D-28R
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1036175945

Unadjusted exit polls were also rigged for Clinton. Large exit poll discrepancies favored Clinton in the Rust belt and Red states.  Exit polls matched the recorded vote in large states (i.e. CA). If the recorded vote was bogus, then the unadjusted exit polls must have also overstated Clinton shares. In NY the 5% discrepancy actually favored Trump.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/why-the-recorded-vote-and-unadjusted-exit-polls-are-wrong/

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis – returning 2012 voters. Trump wins all 25 scenarios. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1768941212

Ohio unadjusted exit poll indicated an implausible 47% tie .  Trump won Ohio by 51.7-43.6%.  To match the unadjusted poll, Clinton needed to win Independents by 50-35%, an implausible margin.  However, the final Ohio exit poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) indicated that Trump won Independents by 51-38%.

Humboldt County, CA is only US county with an Open Source foolproof vote count/audit. Bernie had his highest CA share in Humboldt (71%). Jill Stein had her highest share there(6%) compared to 1% elsewhere.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/more-clues-on-election-fraud-from-humboldt-cty-ca/

Voter turnout: millions of Sanders voters a) did not turnout, b) voted for Stein, c) voted for Trump,
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/03/15/2016-voter-turnout-and-vote-share-sensitivity-analysis-trump-won-the-popular-vote/

Trump and Bernie each won Independents by 10%. Trump had a higher percentage of Republicans than Clinton had of Democrats.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1042213556

“Crosscheck”: It is estimated that one million votes were suppressed, costing Hillary.
http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/

Illegal voters: Estimated at 1-5 million. Obama encouraged illegals to vote.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/02/25/2016-true-vote-sensitivity-analysis-illegal-voters-uncounted-votes-machine-vote-flipping/
https://pjmedia.com/trending/2017/06/20/report-as-many-as-5-7-million-non-citizens-voted-in-2008-election
http://www.wnd.com/2016/11/obama-encourages-illegal-aliens-to-vote/

Fraction Magic: votes were flipped to Clinton on Central tabulators (Bev Harris)
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

Hillary supporter George Soros had an interest in voting machines in 16 states.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2176907-voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally/

Recounts in MI and WI showed that Trump did better than reported. Wayne County, MI had more votes than registered voters.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/12/12/records-many-votes-detroits-precincts/95363314/

National Exit Poll- When Decided:  The NEP is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided after Oct.1;  48%  voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Of the 74% who decided before Oct.1, Clinton led 51-45%.

The 2016 NEP indicates that 40% of voters decided after Sept.1. Trump won these voters by 48.0-42.0%. Clinton won voters who decided before Sept.1 by 52.5-45.0%. Since the poll was forced to match Clinton’s 48.3-46.2% recorded vote, it appears that her pre-Sept. vote share was inflated.

The third-party Recorded vote is another clue that Clinton’s vote was rigged.
According to the National Exit Poll, 4% of voters who decided before Oct.1 voted for a third party candidate; 12% voted third party after Oct.1. Jill Stein had just 1% of the total recorded vote. Could it be that Jill really had at least 3% of which 2% or more were shifted to Clinton?

Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Oct. 1 26% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0%
Pre Oct. 1.. 74% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Sept. 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0%
Pre Sept 1.. 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Were Clinton’s pre-Oct.  poll shares rigged to match the recorded vote? Clinton won the national recorded vote by 2.9 million. She won IL, CA and NY by a combined 7 million votes. So Trump won the recorded vote by at least 4 million everywhere else. But Trump’s True Vote margin had to be higher than 4 million. Here’s why: As many as 3 million of Clinton’s 7 million margin in IL, CA and NY may have been fraudulent- matching her national 3 million margin. Were Clinton’s votes inflated (rigged) in these and other states?

State exit poll………….. IL…….. CA……. NY
Total Recorded %…… 56-39-5.. 62-32-4. 60-37-3
Before Oct.1………….66-32-2.. 67-29-4. 67-31-2 < Rigged?
After Oct.1………….. 33-55-12. 51-42-7. 38-53-9 < shift to Trump & 3rd party
Votes (mil)…………….. 5.5……. 14.2……. 7.5
Margin (mil)…………… 0.95……. 4.3…….. 1.7 Total 6.95 million

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/pubchart?oid=729649900&format=image

 
3 Comments

Posted by on June 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , ,

MY COMMENTS TO THE MSM ON THE RIGGING OF THE 2016 PRE-ELECTION POLLS

The MSM just interviewed the authors of  Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign on the reasons for Clinton’s loss.  I commented to Chris Mathews and Brian Williams of MSNBC as well as FOX and CBS on how MSM pollsters rigged the pre-election polls for Clinton.

FYI: Your guests may not have looked at my 2016 Election model. It was based adjustments to final pre-election polls which were biased for Clinton. The Democratic Party-ID share was overstated at the expense of Independents who went solidly for Trump. In addition, there is strong evidence that votes were stolen from Jill Stein – by Clinton.

The 2016 Model projected Trump’s 306 RECORDED EV. But he actually had approximately 351 TRUE EV after adjusting for late undecided voters. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

Recorded Vote: Clinton 48.3-46.2%, Trump 306-232 EV
Recorded Vote Forecast: Trump 44.4-42.9% with 306-232 EV
True Vote Model: Trump 48.5-44.3% with 351-187 EV

Note: I exactly forecast the RECORDED EV in the last three elections: 365, 332, 306. In each case the winner did better in the True Vote than the Recorded vote.

Here is the proof: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

 

 

 

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on April 24, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

2016 True Vote Sensitivity analysis: illegal voters, uncounted votes, machine vote flipping

Richard Charnin
Updated Sept. 19, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.8 million. But the recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote due to election fraud.

There is evidence that millions of illegals probably voted in 2016. View this 1988-2016 trend analysis of Hispanic voter registration and turnout.

According to Greg Palast, least one million Democratic minority voters were disenfranchised via Crosscheck which eliminated voters with duplicate names from voter rolls. He claims that 7 million minority voters were disenfranchised.

There is evidence that  George Soros , a Clinton backer,  controls voting machines in 16 states.  Election analyst Bev Harris has posted Fraction Magic , an algorithm used to flip votes on Central tabulators.

Sensitivity analysis shows the effects of a range of assumptions on the vote count.

Let TV = True Vote; RV = Recorded vote
RV = TV + Fraud

Given the Recorded vote in millions:
Clinton 65.7, Trump 62.9, Other 7.6

Election fraud components:
-Vote flipping on maliciously coded, proprietary voting machines and central tabulators
-Illegal voters (non-citizens)
-Uncounted votes (spoiled ballots, disenfranchised voters)

Base Case Assumptions
Uncounted- 7 million: 85% for Clinton
Vote Flip- 5 million (net): 8% of Trump’s votes flipped to Clinton on voting machines and central tabulators. 
Illegals- 2 million: 85% for Clinton
Trump wins by 3.7 million: 68.7-64.9 (48.6-46.0%)

Sensitivity Analysis (assume 7 million uncounted, 85% for Clinton)
Worst case (7% flip, 80% of illegals to Clinton):  Trump wins by 2.3 million
Base case: (8%  flip, 85% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 3.7 million
Best case: (9% flip, 90% of illegals to Clinton): Trump wins by 5.2 million

View the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

http://www.pewhispanic.org/2016/01/19/millennials-make-up-almost-half-of-latino-eligible-voters-in-2016/ph_election-2016_chap1-chart-08/

Number of Latino Eligible Voters Is Increasing Faster Than the Number of Latino Voters in Presidential Election Years

Total Clinton Trump Other
Recorded vote 136.22 65.72 62.89 7.61
48.25% 46.17% 5.59%
Illegal 2.0 -1.7 -0.3 0
Uncounted 7.0 5.95 1.05 0
Vote Flip 5.0 -5.0 5.0 0
Adjusted 141.22 64.9 68.7 7.6
  46.0% 48.6% 5.4%
7.0 uncounted 85% to Clinton
Illegals to 
Clinton
 
  80% 85% 90%
Flip to Clinton   Trump Vote
9% 69.20 69.30 69.40
8% 68.57 68.67 68.77
7% 67.94 68.04 68.14
Vote Flip   Trump Vote
9% 49.00% 49.07% 49.14%
8% 48.56% 48.63% 48.70%
7% 48.11% 48.18% 48.25%
Vote Flip   Clinton vote
9% 45.61% 45.54% 45.47%
8% 46.06% 45.98% 45.91%
7% 46.50% 46.43% 46.36%
Vote Flip   Trump margin
9% 4.79 4.99 5.19
8% 3.53 3.73 3.93
7% 2.27 2.47 2.67
 
2 Comments

Posted by on February 25, 2017 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , , ,

Analysis of 28 State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Vote vs. True Vote

Richard Charnin
Updated: Dec. 14, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Only 28 states were exit polled.  This analysis shows why the unadjusted exit polls are not plausible. Trump won the True Vote. 
a) He won Independents by  7.7% over Clinton.
b) Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

Methodology
The state Party-ID crosstab (reported vote) is the basis for the analysis.
Exit Polls: Reported Party-ID weights. Independent vote shares adjusted to force a match to the total exit poll shares.

True Vote Calculation
State Party-ID is based on the Gallup National voter affiliation survey.
Method 1- Reported vote shares (CNN).
Method 2- Vote shares calculated in the Election Model.

Summary (28 states)
Unadjusted exit polls: Clinton leads 47.6-44.6% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Clinton 44.0-Trump 40.6% (not plausible)

Reported Vote (CNN)
Trump 47.3-46.7% (unweighted average)
Party-ID: 35.1D – 32.7R – 32.2I (Dems outnumber Independents by 2.9%)
Share of Independents: Trump 48.0-Clinton 40.3% (plausible)

True Vote
Model 1: Trump 46.7-46.0% (unweighted, reported vote shares)
Model 2: Trump 48.4-43.8% (unweighted, Election Model shares)
Party-ID: 32.0D – 29.3R – 38.7I (Independents outnumber Dems by 6.7%)

States Flipped from the Reported to the True Vote
True Vote 1:
Trump to Clinton: PA and FL (42 EV)
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH CO (39 EV)
True Vote 2:
Trump to Clinton: PA
Clinton to Trump: VA NV NH MN ME CO …. WA OR NM

Notes:
-The model is probably wrong on WA and OR flipping to Trump.
-Trump leads 51.2-43.8% in the 22 states (and  D.C.) which were not polled.
-Clinton won NY and CA by at least 5 million votes, almost double her 2.7 national margin. Her True Vote margin in NY and CA is approximately 2.5 million.

The calculations are displayed as follows:
Unadjusted ….. Reported…..True Vote
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0

Link to TDMS Research exit poll table
http://tdmsresearch.com/2016/11/10/2016-presidential-election-table/

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on December 13, 2016 in 2016 election

 

Tags: , , , , , , ,

 
Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis