2017 Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Alabama Senate: Jefferson County- Implausible voter turnout

Richard Charnin
Jan. 12, 2018

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
LINKS TO  POSTS

Problem: Estimate a) Clinton and Trump voter turnout in 2017 and b) Trump voter defection required to match the recorded vote.

In 2016, Clinton won Jefferson by 32,000 votes (52.3-45.0%).
In 2017, Jones won Jefferson by 83,000 votes (68.1-30.2%).

In order to match the vote, Jones needed
1) 25% higher 2016 Clinton voter turnout than Trump (85-60%).
2) 21% of returning Trump voters (8% would normally be expected to defect).
3) 98% of Clinton voters.

True Vote Estimate: Assume 80% turnout of Clinton voters and 66% of Trump  voters. Moore wins 84% of Trump voters and 3% of Clinton.   Jones’ margin in Jefferson is reduced from 83,000 to 56,000 votes.

Go to row 133
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YoXVkz6KGUoMzEDJBxwROEaukSkgqWVHX3qy_lBxIgc/edit#gid=0

Recorded Vote-Turnout Assumption: 85% Clinton; 60% Trump;60% Other

JEFFERSON COUNTY			2017
2016	Recorded	Votes	99% Alive	Turnout	Turnout
Clinton	52.32%	156,873	155,304	85%	132,009
Trump	44.95%	134,768	133,420	60%	80,052
Other	2.73%	8,199	8,117	60%	4,870
Did Not Vote	–	–	–	–	2,610
TOTAL	100%	299,840	296,842	219,541

2017	Pct	Jones	Moore	Other
Clinton	60.1%	98.0%	2.0%	0.0%
Trump	36.5%	21.0%	76.0%	3.0%
Other	2.2%	37.0%	40.0%	23.0%
DNV (new)	1.2%	59.0%	34.0%	7.0%
Match	100%	68.11%	30.21%	1.69%
Votes	219,541	149,521	66,315	3,704
Recorded	100%	68.11%	30.20%	1.69%
	219,541	149,522	66,309	3,710

True Vote estimate- Turnout Assumption: 80% Clinton; 66% Trump; 66% Other

2017	Pct	Jones	Moore	Other
Clinton	56.6%	97.0%	2.0%	1.0%
Trump	40.1%	14.0%	84.0%	2.0%
Other	2.4%	37.0%	45.0%	18.0%
DNV (new)	0.9%	59.0%	34.0%	7.0%
True Estimate	100%	61.92%	36.21%	1.87%
Votes	219,541	135,937	79,504	4,100
Recorded	100%	68.11%	30.20%	1.69%
	219,541	149,522	66,309	3,710

 

 

University of Virginia Study: 20% of Trump Voters were former Obama Voters

Richard Charnin
April 29, 2017

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

University of Virginia Study: 20%  of 63 million Trump Voters were former Obama Voters

Larry Sabato is the founder and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.  http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/04/larry-sabato-20-trump-voters-former-obama-voters-video/

Sabato said: “This is the largest study of just Trump voters… The first thing that is perfectly clear is that Trump has lost almost none of his backers, which includes the soft Trump voters. He’s still got 92-93% of them supporting him. It’s also true he hasn’t gained many people from the other side. We live in a very polarized era… What I found fascinating, nobody else has identified this, 20% of Trump voters actually voted for Obama either in 2008 or in 2012 or in both years. In other words a fifth of his vote came from Obama voters”.

Based on 2012 and 2016 recorded votes,  approximately 18.6% (11.68 million) of  62.9 million Trump voters were returning Obama voters.

 

2012	Pct	Trump	Clinton	Other	TrumpVote
Obama	51.03%	16.8%	81.0%	2.2%	11.68
Romney	47.19%	78.0%	13.0%	9.0%	50.13
Other	1.70%	45.0%	43.0%	12.0%	1.04
New	0.08%	44.0%	46.0%	10.0%	0.05
Total	100%	46.18%	48.24%	5.58%	62.90
Votes	136.20	62.90	65.70	7.60

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/why-the-recorded-vote-and-unadjusted-exit-polls-are-wrong/

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=0