# Tag Archives: Trump

## Rasmussen vs. WaPo: Trump Approval

Richard Charnin
Updated: Aug.31, 2018

According to Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, Trump has a 48% total approval rating. Among black voters, he has 34% approval.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

The Washington Post tried to refute Rasmussen’s results with an article entitled “No, one-third of African Americans don’t support Trump. Not even close”.

The  Post needs to take an algebra class. WaPo says Trump total approval is 36% with 3% black approval. This is mathematically impossible, counter-intuitive and an insult to the intelligence of any rational reader.

Once again, WaPo bias is showing. Given Rasmussen’s 48% total Trump approval, then 34% of blacks approve and 50% of non-blacks approve. Here is the proof based on the 88% non-black/12% black split of the electorate.
Given: Trump Approval =.48 (total)
Blacks = 12% of the electorate (34% Trump approval)
Let X = total non-black approval
.48= .88*X+.12*34
X=(.48-.12*.34)/.88
X= 0.50 non-black approval

Proof: If Trump has 3% black approval, then he must have 40% total approval (45% non-black approval) given the 88/12% split.
Total approval = non-black approval + black approval = .40 =0.88*0.45+0.12*0.03

The Harris-Harvard Poll shows that Trump has 45% total approval.
https://caps.gov.harvard.edu/news/caps-harris-poll-foreign-policy-and-supreme-court

WaPo Trump approval shenanigans: Party-ID
Once again, they over-sample Democrats. But they also inflate the poll shares. In this conservative analysis the Gallup poll shares are set equal to WaPo:
Trump approval: WaPo 34.4%, Gallup 38.5%

WaPo
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 25 78
Indep 37 35
Dem.. 33 6
Total 95 34.4
Gallup
……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 78
Indep 43 35
Dem.. 27 6
Total 98 38.5

Sensitivity- Adjust Republican and Independent Trump approval
Gallup

……ID% Trump Approval
Repub 28 90
Indep 43 43
Dem 27 6
Total 98 45.3

According to the National Exit Poll, Trump had 8% of the recorded black vote. But he did much better than that since the NEP, as always, was forced to match a bogus recorded vote inflated for Clinton. Trump’s approval among blacks has risen sharply since the election (black unemployment is at an all-time low).

 Trump Approval Non-Black 0.440 0.460 0.480 0.500 Black Total 0.40 0.435 0.453 0.470 0.488 0.38 0.433 0.450 0.468 0.486 0.36 0.430 0.448 0.466 0.483 0.34 0.428 0.446 0.463 0.481 0.03 0.391 0.408 0.426 0.444

How does Trump’s approval among blacks translate to the popular vote?

Assume
1) 2016 National Exit poll white, latino, asian recorded vote shares. Note: Trump’s true shares were likely understated to force a match to the bogus recorded vote.
2) 2016 Census Race percentage breakdown
3) Trump’s vote share among blacks is equal to 36%.

Trump wins by 9 million votes.

National Exit Poll (adjusted to match recorded vote)
Race Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12% 89% 8% 3%
Latin 11% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2% 56% 36% 8%
Total 100% 47.9% 46.3% 5.8%

Census/NEP adjusted to 36% black approval
Census Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.30% 36.7% 56.8% 6.5%
Black 12.45% 61% 36% 3%
Latin 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1.36% 56% 36% 8%
Share 100% 43.7% 50.2% 6.1%

Census Table 4b. Reported Voting and Registration, by Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin, for States: November 2016
2016 Presidential Election Model

1 Comment

Posted by on August 16, 2018 in 2018 Elections

## Clinton rigged the primary against Sanders, and then she rigged the presidential.

Richard Charnin
June 23, 2018

Clinton rigged the primary against Sanders-  and then she rigged the presidential. The MSM was in the tank for HRC.  In the presidential election, Clinton’s pre-election and unadjusted exit poll vote shares were inflated in anticipation of the fraud.

http://projectcensored.org/clintonistasdnc-illegally-stole-democratic-primaries-bernie-sanders/

“Finally, almost all election ballots are counted by computers and cannot be verified by the public. Apart from being non-transparent, this method of counting ballots is also problematic because electronic voting machines can easily be hacked. Essentially, Clintonista computer hackers could have flipped a minimum number of votes spread over a maximum number of polling stations by inserting a malicious code or algorithm into the voting tabulation software. As a result, this code would allow the final number of votes to “remain random in a way that would avoid detection by election fraud analysis tools.”

Suspiciously, multiple studies show that across all primary states, Clinton performed best in counties with electronic voting machines that didn’t leave a paper trail. https://www.theepochtimes.com/voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally_2176907.html

Additionally, Election Justice USA found that the computer counts differed widely from the exit poll projections, but only for the Democratic Party primaries. According to election analyst Richard Charnin, Bernie Sanders’ exit poll share exceeded his recorded vote share by greater than the margin of error in 11 of 26 primaries: Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, Mississippi, South Carolina, Texas, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Charnin reported that the probability of this occurring is 1 in 77 billion, which raises the strong possibility of election fraud. Yet, almost no discrepancies were found in the data for the Republican Party primaries. This is particularly remarkable, because the exit polls were conducted on the same day, in the same precincts, with the same interviewers, and used the same methodologies for both the parties. So, this evidence suggests that the computer counts were only accurate for the Republican Party, while the computer counts for the Democratic Party primaries remain largely unverified.

The exit polls for the Democratic primaries were conducted by Edison Research, which is the exclusive provider of exit polls to the National Election Pool (NEP), which includes ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC and the Associated Press. The National Election Pool has a policy that exit pollsters must adjust and force all state and national exit polls to match the recorded vote count, as if the computerized votes are always correct and as if there is no fraud!”

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/04/05/23743/

My Books
Trump Won the True Vote: Polling Anomalies, Democratic Defections, Independents and Late Undecided Voters
77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy

## Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Sensitivity of 2016 Electoral and Popular Vote to Registered Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Oct.4, 2017

Eight voter turnout scenarios:
Trump wins the base case (86% Dem, 91% Rep) by 328-210 EV and 1.15 million votes.

Trump needs 89% Dem and 88% Rep turnout to match his 306 EV.
Clinton needs an implausible 92% Dem, 85% Rep turnout to tie Trump at 269 EV.
Clinton needs 93% Dem, 87% Rep turnout to win by 298-240 EV and 3.12 million.
Clinton needs 92.5% Dem, 84.5% Rep turnout to match her 2.8 million margin.

Trump vote margins are conservative since the calculations are based on state exit poll vote shares forced to match the recorded vote.

Sensitivity analysis (assume constant 87% Independent voter turnout)

Turnout Trump Votes (000) Vote Shares
Dem Rep EV Trump Clinton Margin Trump Clinton
0.85 0.92 332 64,647 62,885 1,762 47.5 46.2
0.86 0.91 328 64,347 63,195 1,152 47.2 46.4
0.87 0.90 321 64,047 63,505 542 47.0 46.6
0.88 0.89 315 63,747 63,815 -68 46.8 46.9
0.89 0.88 305 63,447 64,125 -678 46.6 47.1
0.90 0.87 289 63,147 64,435 -1,288 46.4 47.3
0.91 0.86 289 62,847 64,745 -1,899 46.1 47.5
0.92 0.85 269 62,546 65,055 -2,509 45.9 47.8
0.93 0.84 240 62,246 65,365 -3,119 45.7 48.0
0.94 0.83 240 61,946 65,675 -3,729 45.5 48.2

Given these facts:
– Census 2016 registered voter turnout of 87%.
– Gallup national voter affiliation (Party-ID) on Election Day:
(41% Independents, 31% Democrats and 28% Republicans)
– 28 exit poll states: vote shares forced to match recorded vote.
– 23 non-exit poll states recorded vote shares .

Assumptions: Bernie Sanders defectors…
– 5% of registered Democrats stayed home
– 4% voted for Jill Stein and 1% for Trump.
Then….
1. Adjusted Voter Turnout: 78.6% Dem, 91.6% Rep, 91.6% Ind
2. Adjusted Gallup Party-ID: 29.5% Dem, 29.1% Rep, 41.4% Ind
3. Gallup Party-ID calculated for each of the 28 exit polled states
4. Trump wins by 48.13-45.33% (3.81 million votes) with 332-206 EV

Since the 28 state exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote and likely inflated for Clinton (as were the 23 states not polled), Trump probably did better than indicated.

…………..Clinton Trump
28 states 45.67% 47.67% Exit polls (Gallup/NEP-adjusted)

23 states 43.71% 50.40% Not exit polled. Assume recorded vote.

51 states 45.33% 48.13% (conservative- Trump may have done better)

1 Comment

Posted by on October 4, 2017 in 2016 election

## CLINTON DID NOT WIN THE POPULAR VOTE: UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS AND RECORDED VOTES ARE BOGUS

Richard Charnin
Sep. 29, 2017

This is an analysis of Party-ID, recorded vote shares and unadjusted State Exit Polls. It indicates that Clinton did not win the popular vote by 2.8 million. In fact, she did not win the popular vote.

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% of registered voters turned out.
If 6% of Democratic voters stayed home because the DNC rigged the primary, then 85% of Democrats, 91% Republicans and 87% Independents voted.

2016 National
Party-ID….Dem Rep Ind

Exit Poll 36.0 33.0 31.0%
Gallup….31.0 28.0 41.0

28 Exit Poll states Party-ID
WtdAvg 37.4 31.8 30.8%
Average 35.3 32.5 32.2
Gallup.. 31.8 28.9 39.3 (wtd average)
Gallup.. 30.0 29.6 40.4 (average)

Clinton won the recorded vote by 65.6-62.8  million (48.3-46.2%)

a) In the 28 states exit polled (110.7 million votes),
Clinton won the unadjusted exit polls by 54.9-48.2 million (49.6-43.6%).
She won the recorded vote by 54.5-50.0 million (49.2-45.2%).

b) In the 28 states after adjustments for Gallup Party-ID and voter turnout,
Clinton wins by 52.1-51.6 million (47.1-46.6%).

c) In the 23 states that were not exit polled (25.5 million votes),
Trump won by 12.8-11.1 million (50.4-43.7%).

Trump wins by: 64.4-63.2 million (47.2-46.4%).
Note: the analysis does not adjust the recorded (bogus) state exit poll vote shares. It does not adjust for the effects of disenfranchised or illegal voters or purged voting rolls or votes flipped at the voting machines and central tabulators.

 2012 returning Voter turnout Recorded 95% 95% 95% 2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other Obama 44.12% 88% 7% 5% Romney 40.80% 6% 90% 4% Other 1.54% 45% 45% 10% DNV (new) 13.54% 46.4% 41.9% 11.7% Match Recorded Calc share 48.25% 46.17% 5.58% Calc Vote 65.72 62.90 7.60 Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.58% Vote (mil.) 65.72 62.89 7.60 Margin 2.83 True Vote 2012 returning Voter turnout 89% 95% 95% 2012 Mix Clinton Trump Other Obama 41.33% 86% 7% 7% Romney 40.80% 5% 90% 5% Other 1.54% 40% 40% 20% DNV (new) 16.32% 43% 46% 11% Share 45.22% 47.74% 7.04% Vote (mil.) 61.60 65.03 9.59 Margin 3.43

The bogus claim that Clinton won the popular vote is quoted ad nauseam by so-called “experts” in the media, academia and corrupt politicians. They are complicit in spreading this disinformation along with the fully discredited meme of a Russian “hack” designed to steal the election from Hillary. There is not one iota of proof.

I have written three books in which I cited pristine unadjusted exit polls to prove fraud. I believe they accurately represented the True Vote – up until the 2016 presidential election. Just because exit polls have proven to be accurate in the past (most recently in the 2016 Democratic primary) does not mean they were accurate in the 2016 election. The fact that Hillary won the popular recorded vote by 2.8 million does not mean she won the True Vote. They are never the same.

The “experts” still maintain the fiction that Clinton won the primary by 3 million votes. But the recorded vote is NEVER equal to the true vote. For some reason, talking heads never mention that simple fact. President Obama said it was not possible to steal an election. They think we are all stupid. Election Fraud is always an inside job.

The following states flipped to Trump from the unadjusted exit poll to the recorded vote and the Gallup-adjusted exit poll: FL MI NC PA WI
Minnesota flipped to Clinton.

California (3.77), Illinois (0.72) and New York (0.78) provided 5.27 million of Clinton’s adjusted margin in the 28 states. Trump won the other 25 states by 3.7 million votes.

Wisconsin
Trump did better in the Gallup-adjusted poll than the unadjusted exit poll and recorded vote.

Recorded Vote: Trump won 47.2-46.3% (23,000 votes)

CNN Adjusted Exit Poll: 35Dem-34Rep-31 Ind

WI Gallup Clinton Trump Johnson Stein
Dem…. 30.10% 91.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0%
Rep….. 31.85%  6.0% 90.0% 3.0% 0.0%
Ind….. 38.05% 40.0% 50.0% 6.0% 2.0%
Share 100.0% 44.5% 49.8% 3.5% 1.06%

Scroll to row 150 to view the state data: adjusted and recorded Party-ID and vote shares. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=857963642

Posted by on September 29, 2017 in 2016 election, Election Myths

## 2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

2016 True Vote Analysis: Voter Turnout

Richard Charnin
Sept.24, 2017

According to the 2016 Census, 87.3% (137.5 million) of 157.6 million registered voters cast ballots, the same turnout as in the 1996-2016 elections. There were 136.2 million votes recorded – a 1% difference. In 1996-2016, there was a 3% difference between votes cast and recorded.

According to the Gallup Voter Preference Survey, on Election Day, 39.8% were Independents, 31.9% Democrats and 28.3% Republicans.

Assume registered voter turnout of
– 87% Independents
Trump won Independents by 8%. Pre-election polls indicate he won by 10%.

– 85% Democrats
(6% stayed home – or 12% of Sanders voters).
Clinton had 88% of Dems – but that assumes Jill Stein had just 2%.

– 91% Republicans

Result: Trump wins by 47.6-45.2% (3.4 million votes)
Stein has 2.9% (4 million) compared to her 1.07% recorded vote (1.45 million).
So the following is CONSERVATIVE. Trump probably did better.

Party Turnout Voted….Clinton….Trump… Johnson… Stein….Other
Ind… 87%…….34.4%…….40%…….48%…….4.0%….5.0%…3.0%
Dem… 85%……27.1%…….88%……..8%…….1.0%….2.0%…1.0%
Rep… 91%…….25.7%……..7%…….89%…….3.0%….1.0%…0.0%

Vote..87.3%…….. 100%……45.2%…..47.6%……2.8%….2.9%…1.5%
Recorded
Share………….. 136.22…..48.25%….46.17%…..3.29%…1.07%..1.23%

Sensitivity Analysis
(Trump wins all 25 turnout scenarios- see spreadsheet tables)
Trump Vote Margin
Best case: 4.9 million (48.2-44.7%)
Base case: 3.35 million (47.6-45.2%)
Worst case: 1.8 million (47.1-45.8%)

Posted by on September 24, 2017 in 2016 election

## 2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

2016 True Vote Models in Confirmation: Party-ID and Returning 2012 Voters

Richard Charnin
Aug.28, 2017

Pollsters no longer ask the question “How did you vote in the last election”? Why? Because posing the question provides an analyst with data to indicate election fraud.

In 1972, 1988, 1992, 2004 and 2008, in order to match the recorded vote (SOP), the exit pollsters (who work for the MSM) required a greater turnout of Bush voters from the prior election than were still alive. This is a MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY. If the exit poll is impossible, the recorded vote it was forced to match must also be impossible. That is proof of fraud. It’s why the exit pollsters (the MSM) no longer ask the question “Who Did You Vote for in the Last Election”?

These 2016 models calculate a true vote estimate for each state.
Model 1: Obama and Romney voter turnout in 2016.
Model 2: Gallup Party-ID voter affiliation. Used in the 2016 forecast model.

Base case vote shares were identical in each model. The shares were forced to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout. To calculate the True Vote, returning Obama voter turnout in 2016 was adjusted to 89%. The assumption is that 6% of Obama voters were Bernie Sanders 2016 primary voters who did not return to vote in the presidential election.

Important note: Since the vote shares were forced to match a likely fraudulent recorded vote (the Mainstream Media was heavily biased for Clinton), the following results are conservative. Trump probably did at least 2% better than indicated in the base case calculations. View the sensitivity analysis.

So how can we determine Obama and Romney returning voter turnout in 2016? Where can we get that information? Why don’t the exit pollsters provide the data? Should we just guess or estimate turnout based on historical elections? I chose the latter.

Using the prior 2012 vote as a basis, a voter mortality estimate is factored in. Approximately 4% of voters pass between each election (1% annual mortality). The simplest approach is to assume an equal 95% turnout of Obama and Romney voters still living. Now we have a plausible approximation of the (unknown) mix of returning voters. Since we know the current election recorded vote, the number of new 2016 voters who did not vote in 2012 can be calculated: DNV = 2016 total vote – returning 2012 voters.

The first step is to force the candidate shares of returning voters to match the recorded vote assuming equal 95% turnout.

In the True Vote calculation, the percentage of returning Obama voters was lowered to 89% to reflect disenchantment among Bernie Sanders’ primary voters who did not vote in the general election or voted for Jill Stein or Donald Trump.

To view the sensitivity of the True Vote to Trump shares of returning Obama and Romney voters, a matrix of total vote shares is calculated in 1% increments around the Trump base case estimate. There are 25 vote share scenario combinations in the 5×5 matrix. Corresponding matrices of Clinton shares and vote margins are also included. The base case is in the central cell.

2016 Presidential State Election Model Summary

Recorded Vote

Model 1
(returning 2012 voters)
2012 recorded vote: Obama 51.03-Romney 47.19% (4.98 million)
2016 voter turnout: Obama 89%, Romney 95%

Model 2
Gallup National Voter Affiliation Survey: 32D-28R-40I (state adjusted)
1. Trump and Clinton split the undecided vote:

2. Trump had 75% of the undecided vote:

Vote share sensitivity analysis (Model 1)
-Best case: Trump had 92% of returning Romney voters and 9% of Obama voters
Trump by 49.4-45.0% (5.98 million votes)
-Base case: Trump had 90% of returning Romney voters and 7% of Obama voters
Trump by 47.8-46.7% (1.51 million votes)
-Worst case: Trump had 88% of returning  Romney voters and 5% of Obama voters
Clinton by 48.3-46.1% (2.97 million votes).

Mathematical Proof: the 2004 election was stolen
The 2004 National Exit Poll was impossible as it was forced to match the recorded vote (Bush 50.7-48.3%) using an impossible number of returning Bush 2000 voters. It indicated that 52.6 million (43% of the 2004 electorate) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 45.3 million (37%) were returning Gore voters. But Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. It indicated an impossible 110% turnout of living 2000 Bush voters in 2004.

Posted by on August 28, 2017 in 2016 election, True Vote Models

## Trump won the True vote; Clinton won the Fraudulent Recorded vote

Richard Charnin
June 24, 2017
Updated: July 10,2017

Hillary Clinton’s 2.8 million recorded vote margin is a myth.  THE RECORDED VOTE IS NEVER EQUAL TO THE TRUE VOTE. Mainstream media pre-election and exit polls were rigged for Clinton.

She won the Recorded Vote 48.3-46.2%. Trump had 306 EV. The True Vote Model indicates that Trump won by 48-44% (5 million votes) with 351 EV. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/2016-election-model-forecast/

1988-2012: Democrats won the True Vote and the unadjusted exit polls 52-42%. They won the recorded vote by 48-46%. They won the True Vote in every election. The exit polls and the True Vote Model indicated that the 1988,2000 and 2004 elections were stolen.

So what changed in 2016? The establishment was in the tank for Clinton. The pre-election and exit polls were biased in her favor. Trump won the primaries easily; Clinton had to cheat Bernie. Trump and Bernie drew big crowds, Clinton drew small crowds. Trump and Bernie won (non-scientific) online debate polls by large margins.

2016 Democratic primary: 11 of 26 unadjusted exit polls exceeded the MoE for Sanders. The probability is one in 77 billion.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2016/05/05/democratic-primaries-election-fraud-probability-analysis/

2016 Election: Clinton led 9 pre-election polls by 2.5% – exactly matching the recorded vote.
Pre-election polls were rigged for Clinton. Democratic Party ID was inflated.
True National Party ID was 40-I-32D-28R

Unadjusted exit polls were also rigged for Clinton. Large exit poll discrepancies favored Clinton in the Rust belt and Red states.  Exit polls matched the recorded vote in large states (i.e. CA). If the recorded vote was bogus, then the unadjusted exit polls must have also overstated Clinton shares. In NY the 5% discrepancy actually favored Trump.

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis 1 – returning 2012 voters

True Vote Sensitivity Analysis 2 – adjustments to recorded vote

Ohio unadjusted exit poll indicated an implausible 47% tie .  Trump won Ohio by 51.7-43.6%.  To match the unadjusted poll, Clinton needed to win Independents by 50-35%, an implausible margin.  However, the final Ohio exit poll (which is always matched to the recorded vote) indicated that Trump won Independents by 51-38%.

Humboldt County, CA is only US county with an Open Source foolproof vote count/audit. Bernie had his highest CA share in Humboldt (71%). Jill Stein had her highest share there(6%) compared to 1% elsewhere.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/01/01/more-clues-on-election-fraud-from-humboldt-cty-ca/

Voter turnout: millions of Sanders voters a) did not turnout, b) voted for Stein, c) voted for Trump.
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2017/03/15/2016-voter-turnout-and-vote-share-sensitivity-analysis-trump-won-the-popular-vote/

Trump and Bernie each won Independents by 10%. Trump had a higher percentage of Republicans than Clinton had of Democrats.

“Crosscheck”: It is estimated that one million votes were suppressed, costing Hillary.
http://www.gregpalast.com/election-stolen-heres/

Fraction Magic: votes were flipped to Clinton on Central tabulators (Bev Harris)
http://blackboxvoting.org/fraction-magic-1/

Hillary supporter George Soros had an interest in voting machines in 16 states.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/2176907-voting-machines-in-16-states-tied-to-george-soros-ally/

Recounts in MI and WI showed that Trump did better than reported. Wayne County, MI had more votes than registered voters.

National Exit Poll- When Decided:  The NEP is ALWAYS adjusted to match the recorded vote. The 2016 NEP indicates that 26% of voters decided after Oct.1;  48%  voted for Trump and 40% for Clinton. Of the 74% who decided before Oct.1, Clinton led 51-45%.

The 2016 NEP indicates that 40% of voters decided after Sept.1. Trump won these voters by 48.0-42.0%. Clinton won voters who decided before Sept.1 by 52.5-45.0%. Since the poll was forced to match Clinton’s 48.3-46.2% recorded vote, it appears that her pre-Sept. vote share was inflated.

The third-party Recorded vote is another clue that Clinton’s vote was rigged.
According to the National Exit Poll, 4% of voters who decided before Oct.1 voted for a third party candidate; 12% voted third party after Oct.1. Jill Stein had just 1% of the total recorded vote. Could it be that Jill really had at least 3% of which 2% or more were shifted to Clinton?

Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Oct. 1 26% 40.0% 48.0% 12.0%
Pre Oct. 1.. 74% 51.0% 45.0% 4.0%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Decided Pct Clinton Trump Other
Post Sept. 1 40% 42.0% 48.0% 10.0%
Pre Sept 1.. 60% 52.5% 45.0% 2.5%
Total……… 100% 48.3% 46.2% 5.5%

Were Clinton’s pre-Oct.  poll shares rigged to match the recorded vote? Clinton won the national recorded vote by 2.8 million. She won IL, CA and NY by a combined 7 million votes. So Trump won the recorded vote by at least 4 million everywhere else. But Trump’s True Vote margin had to be higher than 4 million. Here’s why: As many as 3 million of Clinton’s 7 million margin in IL, CA and NY may have been fraudulent- matching her national 3 million margin. Were Clinton’s votes inflated (rigged) in these and other states?

State exit poll………….. IL…….. CA……. NY
Total Recorded %…… 56-39-5.. 62-32-4. 60-37-3
Before Oct.1………….66-32-2.. 67-29-4. 67-31-2 < Rigged?
After Oct.1………….. 33-55-12. 51-42-7. 38-53-9 < shift to Trump & 3rd party
Margin (mil)…………… 0.95……. 4.3…….. 1.7 Total 6.95 million

Posted by on June 24, 2017 in 2016 election

## Syrian Sarin Gas False Flag: Selected Readings

Richard Charnin
April 16, 2017

• MIT PROFESSOR: FRAUDULENT NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL INTELLIGENCE REPORT ON SYRIAN GAS ATTACK
Theodore A. Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology, and national security policy at MIT.  His main expertise is ballistic missiles. He has a substantial background in air dispersal, including how toxic plumes move in the air. Postol has taught courses on weapons of mass destruction – including chemical and biological threats – at MIT.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/video-tampering-evidence-syrian-chemical-weapons-attack

• Chuck Baldwin: Donald Trump – Just Another Neocon Warmonger
“Talk is cheap” is a phrase that politicians teach us constantly. This time the teacher is Donald Trump. Donald Trump campaigned as an outsider, someone that was not owned by the establishment, and someone who would fight the globalists and drain “the swamp.” But “talk is cheap.”

In 2013, AFTER Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was accused of using sarin gas against his own countrymen, Trump tweeted, “What will we get for bombing Syria besides more debt and a possible long term conflict? Obama needs Congressional approval.” (August 29) And, “Obama’s war in Syria has the potential to widen into a worldwide conflict.” (September 5) And, “Forget Syria and make America great again.” (September 11) And, again, “We should . . . stay out of Syria and other countries that hate us, rebuild our own country and make it strong and great again–USA!” (September 12)
http://www.rense.com/general96/trumpneowarmg.html

•  Robert Parry: Even as The New York Times leads the charge against the Syrian government for this week’s alleged chemical attack, it is quietly retreating on its earlier certainty about the 2013 Syria-sarin case.

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/04/06/nyt-retreats-on-2013-syria-sarin-claims/

• Project Censored: “Why would Assad put such assurances in jeopardy by launching a horrific chemical attack, allowing establishment news outlets like CNN to once against use children as props to push for yet another massive war in the Middle East?”

http://projectcensored.org/syria-guilty-new-evidence-ghouta-sarin-gas-attack/

New evidence shows that the Syrian government was not responsible for the August 21, 2013 sarin gas attack in Ghouta on its own people. The Syrian government was not responsible for the nerve agent attack that left hundreds of Syrians dead, contrary to what the Obama administration claimed, Seymour Hersh and others have reported. US intelligence deliberately manipulated its findings to justify a subsequent strike against Assad, whose regime is being blamed for “gassing thousands to death”.

• Seymour Hersh:  Hillary Clinton Approved Delivering Libya’s Sarin Gas to Syrian Rebels

The great investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, in two previous articles in the London Review of Books («Whose Sarin?» and «The Red Line and the Rat Line») has reported that the Obama Administration falsely blamed the government of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad for the sarin gas attack that Obama was trying to use as an excuse to invade Syria; and Hersh pointed to a report from British intelligence saying that the sarin that was used didn’t come from Assad’s stockpiles. Hersh also said that a secret agreement in 2012 was reached between the Obama Administration and the leaders of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, to set up a sarin gas attack and blame it on Assad so that the US could invade and overthrow Assad. «By the terms of the agreement, funding came from Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar; the CIA, with the support of MI6, was responsible for getting arms from Gaddafi’s arsenals into Syria».

• Ron Paul: “Zero Chance” Assad Behind Chemical Weapons Attack In Syria; Likely A False Flag

Many have questioned why Assad would be so strategically stupid as to order a chemical weapons attack and incite the wrath of the world given that he is closer than ever to winning the war against ISIS and jihadist rebels.  Just five days before the attack, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said, “The longer-term status of President Assad will be decided by the Syrian people”, implying a definite shift in U.S. foreign policy away from regime change in Syria.

• Robert Parry: The U.S. government and the mainstream media rushed to judgment again, blaming the Syrian government for a new poison-gas attack and ignoring other possibilities, reports Robert Parry.

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/04/05/another-dangerous-rush-to-judgment-in-syria/

“With the latest hasty judgment about Tuesday’s poison-gas deaths in a rebel-held area of northern Syria, the mainstream U.S. news media once more reveals itself to be a threat to responsible journalism and to the future of humanity. Again, we see the troubling pattern of verdict first, investigation later, even when that behavior can lead to a dangerous war escalation and many more deaths.

Before a careful evaluation of the evidence about Tuesday’s tragedy was possible, The New York Times and other major U.S. news outlets had pinned the blame for the scores of dead on the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. That revived demands that the U.S. and other nations establish a “no-fly zone” over Syria, which would amount to launching another “regime change” war and would put America into a likely hot war with nuclear-armed Russia.”

• Dr. Eowyn: Three reasons why the latest Syrian chemical attack attributed to Assad is a false flag

In the early morning hours of April 7, 2017, the Trump administration fired 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles from a U.S. destroyer in the Mediterranean Sea, at Shayrat Air Base in Syria which is alleged to be the location from where the Assad government, on April 4, had launched a chemical attack of sarin nerve gas which killed many civilians, including women and children, in the rebel-held town of Khan Shaykhun in Idlib province.

• RT Documentary: BBC, CNN News Caught Staging FAKE News Chemical Attacks In Syria

http://alexanderhiggins.com/bbc-news-caught-staging-fake-news-chemical-attack-syria/

A leaked CNN video and a Truth Seeker RT documentary details the multiple times the corporate media has staged fake news to get the West into war.

• Top Former U.S. Military and Intelligence Officials: Trump Should Rethink Syrian Escalation

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2017/04/top-former-u-s-military-intelligence-officials.html

MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)*
SUBJECT: Syria: Was It Really “A Chemical Weapons Attack”?

1 Comment

Posted by on April 9, 2017 in Uncategorized

## SUMMARY VOTE SHARE/ ELECTORAL VOTE ANALYSIS

Richard Charnin
Dec.20, 2016

Clinton won the national popular vote by 2.8 million votes.  She won California by 4.27 million, New York by 1.7 million and Illinois by 945,000 votes – a total of 6.9 million.  Her margins in these states were implausible.  Trump won the other 48 states by 4.1 million.

The 28 unadjusted state exit polls are implausible. Trump won the True Vote. He won Independents by 7.7% over Clinton. Independents outnumbered Democrats by 6.7%.

1-Use Party-ID from the CNN exit poll (matched to reported vote).

CNN Exit Poll (Reported Vote)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
65,719 62,890 306
48.2% 46.2% (total reported vote)
49.3% 45.2% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Clinton Trump Trump EV
48.5% 44.8% 241
49.6% 43.6% 159 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

True Vote Model 1 (use state-adjusted Gallup National Party-ID)
Clinton Trump Trump EV
47.3% 46.5% 279
48.1% 45.6% 197 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

True Vote Model 2: Sensitivity Analysis (Gallup Party-ID)

Scenario 1: Undecided Voters to Trump: 50%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
45.1% 47.5% 306
45.5% 46.8% 224 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 2: Undecided Voters to Trump: 60%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.7% 47.9% 313
45.0% 47.3% 231 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

Scenario 3: Undecided Voters to Trump: 70%
Clinton Trump Trump EV
44.3% 48.3% 342
44.5% 47.8% 260 (28 exit poll states)
43.7% 50.4% 82 (23 other states)

OHIO
 Reported Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1% Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1% Ind 29% 38% 52% 8% 2% Calc 100% 43.6% 52.1% 3.1% 1.3% Reported 99.3% 43.6% 51.7% 3.2% 0.8% Votes 5,496 2,394 2,841 174 46 Margin 447 8.1%
 Exit Poll Party-ID Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Dem 34% 87% 12% 0% 1% Rep 37% 8% 89% 2% 1% Ind 29% 50% 35% 8% 7% Match 100% 47.0% 47.2% 3.1% 2.7% Unadj.EP 100% 47.0% 47.1% 3.2% 2.7% Votes 5,496 2,583 2,589 176 148 Margin 5 0.1%
 True Vote Gallup adj. Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Dem 32.4% 87% 12% 0% 1% Rep 33.4% 8% 89% 2% 1% Ind 34.2% 38% 52% 8% 2% TVM1 100.0% 43.9% 51.4% 3.4% 1.3% 95.1% 41.6% 46.7% 4.4% 2.4% TVM 100% 43.6% 49.6% 4.0% 2.8% Votes 5,496 2,396 2,729 220 152 Margin 332 5.1%

Posted by on December 20, 2016 in 2016 election

## The 2016 presidential recounts: why not add these six states?

Richard Charnin
Dec.1, 2016
Updated: Dec.11,2016

Jill Stein and Hillary Clinton seek recounts in three close states that Trump won: WI, PA, MI. This is an analysis of six states that Clinton barely won. Shouldn’t they be re-counted as well?

The 2016 Election Model exactly forecast the official recorded electoral vote: 306 – 232. It also forecast the True electoral vote as 351-187 (after  undecided voter allocation). Trump would win the True EV if he won six states he narrowly lost: VA NV MN NH ME CO.

Exit Polls are always forced to match the Reported vote

NH
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NH by 3,000 votes (47.6-47.2%)
Party-ID: 36D-33R-31I.
Using the same vote shares, but with a 21.5D-23.9R-54.6I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey (32D-28R-40I),
Trump won NH by 28,000 votes (47.9-44.0%).
MN
Final  Exit Poll: Clinton won MN by 44,000 votes (46.9-45.4%)
Party-ID: 37D-35R-28I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated  34.7D-31R-34.3I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey.
Trump won MN by 31,000 votes (47.2-46.1%).

ME
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won ME by 20,000 votes (47.9-45.2%)
Party-ID: 31D-30R-39I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated  25.2D-21.6R-53.3I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won ME by 24,000 votes (47.3-44.1%).

CO
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won CO by 75,000 votes (47.3-44.4%)
Party-ID: 32D-24R-33I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 24.4D-26.2R-49.5I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won CO by 86,000 votes (47.5-44.1%).

NV
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NV by 26,000 votes (47.7-45.5%)
Party-ID: 36D-28R-36I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.3D-27.5R-41.2I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won NV by 20,000 votes (47.2-45.5%)

VA
Final  Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won VA by 186,000 votes (49.9-45.0%)
Party-ID: 40D-33R-26I.
Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.6D-33.4R-35I Party-ID
derived from the Gallup National survey,
Trump won VA by 60,000 votes (48.1-46.1%).

These states look fraudulent (vote padding?)
IL
Final Exit Poll: Clinton won IL by 859,000 votes (55.4-39.4%)
Party-ID: 45D-30R-25I
Using the same vote shares with an estimated
Party-ID: 37.1D-27.8R-35.1I derived from the Gallup National survey
Clinton won IL by 336,000 votes (51.1-41.4%).

CA
Final Exit Poll: 84% of precincts reporting
Clinton won CA by 3,390,000 votes (61.6-32.7%)
Party-ID: 47D-23R-30I.
Using the same vote shares,
Clinton won CA by 2,305,000 votes (56.1-36.5%).with
Party-ID: 34.2D-22.3R-43.5I

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

 Unadj Reported True Vote Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Avg 48.39% 45.80% 46.14% 49.65% 44.38% 48.65% Diff -2.59% 3.51% 4.27% OH 47.0% 47.1% 43.5% 52.1% 44.1% 49.2% NC * 48.6% 46.5% 46.7% 50.5% 46.5% 48.1% NJ 59.8% 35.8% 55.0% 41.8% 46.3% 44.7% PA * 50.5% 46.1% 47.7% 48.8% 47.8% 45.8% MI 46.8% 46.8% 47.5% 47.7% 45.3% 47.8% MO 42.8% 51.2% 38.0% 57.1% 37.2% 57.4% IA 44.1% 48.0% 42.2% 51.8% 42.4% 49.4% FL * 47.7% 46.4% 47.8% 49.1% 45.0% 47.6% WI * 48.2% 44.3% 46.9% 47.9% 44.9% 48.1% % Share of Ind Unadj Reported True Vote Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Avg 47.67% 40.19% 39.17% 53.09% 35.11% 52.00% Diff -7.48% 13.92% 16.89% OH 50.0% 34.0% 38.0% 52.0% 38.0% 52.0% NC 47.0% 43.0% 37.0% 53.0% 37.0% 53.0% NJ 67.0% 28.0% 51.0% 48.0% 36.0% 52.0% PA 50.0% 43.0% 36.0% 56.0% 32.0% 53.0% MI 32.0% 52.7% 35.0% 56.3% 35.0% 51.0% MO 45.0% 40.0% 28.0% 62.0% 28.0% 62.0% IA 42.0% 41.0% 35.0% 51.0% 35.0% 52.0% FL 48.0% 43.0% 43.0% 47.0% 30.0% 53.0% WI 48.0% 37.0% 43.0% 46.0% 43.0% 46.0%
 VA Unadj Exit Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Dem 40.0% 92% 6% 1% 0% 1% Rep 33.0% 6% 88% 3% 0% 3% Ind 26.0% 47% 45% 6% 2% 0% Calc 100.0% 51.0% 43.1% 3.0% 0.5% 2% Unadj 100.0% 50.9% 43.2% 3.7% 2.2% Votes (000) 3,792 1,930 1,638 140 83 Margin -292 -7.7% VA Reported Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Dem 40.0% 92% 6% 1% 0% 1% Rep 33.0% 6% 88% 3% 0% 3% Ind 26.0% 43% 48% 6% 2% 1% Calc 100.0% 50.0% 43.9% 3.0% 0.5% 3% Reported 100.0% 49.9% 45.0% 3.2% 1.9% Votes (000) 3,792 1,917 1,731 117 27 Margin -186 -4.8% VA True Vote Pct Clinton Trump Johnson Stein Other Dem 31.6% 92% 6% 1% 0% 1% Rep 33.4% 6% 88% 3% 0% 3% Ind 35.0% 43% 48% 6% 2% 1% Calc 100.0% 46.1% 48.1% 3.4% 0.7% 1.7% TVM bef UVA 95.0% 41.2% 47.0% 4.4% 2.4% True Vote 100.0% 42.4% 50.7% 4.4% 2.4% Votes (000) 3,021 1,282 1,533 134 73 Margin 251 8.3% Votes (calc) 3,021 1,393 1,453 103 21 60 2.0%

Posted by on December 1, 2016 in 2016 election