Tag Archives: Unnatural deaths’

Seth Rich/JFK Mortality Probability Calculator

Richard Charnin
Updated: 7/15/17

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll

It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.

Assume a random group of 10,000 DNC/Wikileaks related individuals:
-There were 8 suspicious deaths (5 homicides) in 3 months from April 2016.
The probability of at least 5 homicides in 3 months is 1 in 6.5 million.
– There were 12 suspicious deaths (8 homicides) in 15 months since April 2016.
The probability of at least 8 homicides in 15 months is 1 in 3.4 million.

4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
May : Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer), cancer.
6/22: John Ashe, ex-UN official, barbell fell on neck. He was going to testify on DNC and Clinton.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack day before the DNC convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, gunshot wound, author of books on Clintons.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
Oct : Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder), cancer.
May : Peter Smith, GOP operative, found dead from asphyxiation in a Minnesota hotel room just days after talking to the Wall Street Journal about his efforts to obtain Hillary’s Clinton’s missing emails. Suicide?
May : Beranton Whisenant, prosecutor investigating DNC, found dead on Hollywood, FL beach.
July: Klaus Eberwein, former Haiti Government official found dead in a motel room with a gunshot wound to the head. Was to testify on Clinton Foundation connection to Haitian earthquake charity.

How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?

What is the probability that in a random group of N DNC/Wikileaks related individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years given group mortality rate R? Three (R, n, T) of the 4 parameters are known constants. The only unknown is N, the number of individuals in the study.
The expected number of unnatural deaths: E = N*R*T

The  Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).

There were 7 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in 3 months:
n = 7
R = 0.0002 (DC homicide rate; 135 homicides/681170 pop.)
T = 3 months (0.25 Year).
N = relevant DNC/Wikileaks population.
E = N*R*T =N*0.0002*0.25 (expected number of homicides).

Assume N = 1,000 DNC/Wikileaks related  persons, then for
n=3 homicides: P= 1 in 52 thousand
n=4 homicides: P= 1 in 4.2 million
n=5 homicides: P= 1 in 422 million
n=6 homicides: P= 1 in 51 billion
n=7 homicides: P= 1 in 7.2 trillion

Assume: n=7, T= 0.25 (3 months), R=0.0002 and
N= 500, P = 1 in 902.1 trillion
N= 1,000, P = 1 in 7.2 trillion
N= 3,000, P = 1 in 3.6 billion
N= 10,000, P = 1 in 1.1 million

Since N is unknown, let’s view a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS table over a range of N for n=5,6,7,8,9:

Probability of n homicides in a random group of
n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
5 0.02% 0.31% 1.41% 3.61%
6 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 1.20%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.34%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%

The analysis assumes the 7 DNC/Wikileaksdeaths were all homicides. If they were a combination of  homicides,  accidents,  suicides and heart attacks, we need to use a weighted mortality rate. This is conservative since “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides. The heart attack was also highly suspicious.

………………..National Weighted for T=.25 (3 months)
COD………. n Rate……… Rate
Accident.. 2 0.00038 0.00076
Suicide…. 1 0.00012 0.00012
Homicide. 3 0.00005 0.00015
Natural?.. 1 0.00173 0.00173 heart attack/cancer
Total…….7 0.00228 0.00039

For n=7, N= 1000, R = 0.00039, T = 0.25 (3 months)
Probability: P = 1 in 60 billion.

For n=5 homicides, N=1000, T= 0.27 (14 weeks), R = 0.00005
P = 1 in 275 billion

For n =7 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks), N=1000, T= 0.25, R = 0.00052
P = 1 in 8 billion.

For n=9 (5 homicides, 2 heart attacks and 2 cancers):
R=0.0008, N=1000, T=0.5 (6 months)
P = 1 in 2.5 billion.

There were n=6 suspicious DNC/Wikileaks deaths in T=5 weeks (0.10 years). Mortality rate R=0.0002. Assuming a random group of N individuals, the probability that it was just a coincidence is
N Probability
500  1 in 900 trillion
1000 1 in 14 trillion
3000 1 in 20 billion
30000 1 in 32000

You can run the spreadsheet calculator for any combination of N, n, R and T.

Probability of 0-7 homicides in a random group of 40,000 over 3 months

No automatic alt text available.

No automatic alt text available.

In 1964-78, there were an estimated 1500 JFK-related material witnesses, of whom 122 died suspiciously. Seventy-eight(78) of the 122 were officially ruled unnatural. Of the 78, 34 were homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths: 2.7E-31 (1 in a million trillion trillion).

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected statistically, therefore approximately 60 of the 78 unnatural deaths were likely homicides.

Of the remaining 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides based on the total number of expected deaths. Therefore, there were 85-90 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. For 10,000 witnesses, Probability: 5.5E-47


Simkin JFK Index of 656 key individuals: 44 homicides, Probability = 4.7 E-60


Posted by on May 20, 2017 in 2016 election, JFK, Uncategorized


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A math-phobic troll claims that JFK-related witness deaths are NOT suspicious

A math-phobic troll claims that JFK-related witness deaths are NOT suspicious

Richard Charnin
Jan.24, 2015

JFK Blog Posts
Look inside the book:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

Carmine Savastano claims that the official, ruled causes of 100+ JFK-related witness deaths are not verifiable. But he goes even further: he states the deaths caused by homicide, accident, suicide, heart attack and sudden cancer are NOT suspicious. He demands that I post references to all the coroner’s reports. I told him that since he wants proof, he should just get them himself. This charlatan is transparent and completely illogical – a classic troll.

He is effectively calling great researchers incompetent in their books and articles on convenient JFK-related witness deaths: Penn Jones, Sylvia Meagher, Richard E. Sprague, Jim Marrs, Richard Belzer, David Wayne, Jesse Ventura, John Simkin and Craig Roberts, etc… Carmine is parroting his mentor John McAdams. But his comments are even more out of touch than McAdams.

The 122 JFK Calc witnesses official and estimated true cause of death:

Graphical proof of a conspiracy:

The Facebook thread:

Carmine Savastano
Ah Richard…More insults, no evidence. I am noticing a pattern. What you have concluded means little without evidence to prove it. Well take that up with those who doubt it. I doubt your sources based on the evidence that can be verified.

Richard Charnin
Let’s pursue your statement in general. Provide us with evidence in the JFK assassination (do not include Judyth Baker’s evidence) that you consider to be verifiable and proven. Also display another list of evidence that you consider unverifiable and unproven. Cite your sources.

Carmine Savastano
instead how about she answers questions repeatedly asked instead of having others attempt to change the subject. Speculation is not my style. So is there evidence or not? It is a simple proposition. I am not claiming anything I cannot prove. I do not like making multiple lists as some do. Just evidence. I have offered the problems they can be addressed reasonably or you can insult and ignore reasonble questions. Simple really. Since I have not made the book with unproven claims I do not need to prove them. Have you got those coroner’s reports yet? The evidence is in these threads, easy to find if you look.

Richard Charnin
we would like to know what conclusions you have come to. Surely, there must be some evidence that you consider proven and verifiable and other evidence which is not. With all of your experience in investigating the claims of JFK researchers and others, as an intelligent critic you must have some opinions on this matter. You have already claimed that evidence heretofore presented (by myself and Judyth, for example) is unverifiable and unproven, right? So give us two lists: Column A- proven; Column B – unproven. We like Chinese food.

Carmine Savastano
Well I do appreciate the compliment even if it was sarcasm, that may be the nicest thing you have ever said to me. Levity aside, I consider significant amounts of evidence proven. I am happy to discuss them at length. However, is it too much to ask that Judyth answers the many questions others and I have posed before we change the subject?

Carmine Savastano
How about a few?

Richard Charnin
Do not discuss them at length. Just give us a list. With sources, please. I would say give us as much as you can, and not limit the number to just a few.

Carmine Savastano
Lists do not offer background and context. No if you want a list that might be possible when I get a few answers. Speaking of lists, did you review all the coroner’s reports? Perhaps you can answer a question while I wait for Judyth? Us? I see some are hungry to attack something, I fear you shall have to wait. I am waiting for my answers still, so you will have to as well.

Richard Charnin
You can list them in a sequence of chapters over the next day or two, as if you are writing a book.

Richard Charnin
Don’t ask me about the coroner’s reports. I asked YOU questions. Please do not try to divert from the issue at hand.

Carmine Savastano
Why thanks, how nice of you. You answer a question perhaps I will too.
No Richard you failed to answer them, now you presume to ask. Amusing.

Richard Charnin
You are still in avoidance and changing the subject. Please respond to MY questions. You may proceed.

Carmine Savastano
Still the same question, since you do not wish to answer it, shall I then conclude you did not read the coroner’s reports? Thus, the natural deaths are not contended by evidence. Just hypothesis, which is fine, it is possible, just not conclusive.

Richard Charnin
You are still in avoidance and changing the subject. Please respond to MY questions. You may proceed. You can read the coroner’s reports yourself. In fact, include them. Cite your sources.

Carmine Savastano
It is charming how you seek to turn this around. Yet it is you and JVB who will not offer evidence and answer questions. The subject never changed you just seek to change it.

Richard Charnin
Now, that you have attempted to change the subject, the onus is on YOU to cite the evidence of verifiable and unverifiable claims SPECIFICALLY. And please cite YOUR sources.

Carmine Savastano
Yes richard because its not about Judyth, you, or me, its about what evidence we have to prove our claims. Im still waiting. Here is my evidence that contends your claims. Care to comment? Seeking to make it about me will not prove your claims. Try as you might. Citations are in the article Are many Suspicious deaths supported by Evidence?
(A rebuttal of “A closer look at the HSCA list of 21 deaths” by Richard Charnin)
Some claim a large and expansive list of deaths related to the Kennedy assassination. This is in addition to the expansive plot that often accompanies such claims. That is evidence I support, want more?

Richard Charnin
I am not turning anything around. I asked you to enlghten us with some examples of verifiable and unverifiable evidence – and to cite your sources. Are you prepared to do that? You are the one who is expounding as if you are expert on verifiable and unverifiable evidence. Let’s see what you have. What is verifiable? What is not? And cite your sources.

Carmine Savastano
It is cited in the article. Here is more evidence.
This supports Oswald did not know until november 19th, which does not support the story offered.

A Question of Time
Lee Harvey Oswald could not have been employed at the Texas School Book Depository without learning of the job from Ruth Paine. This infers he did not plan to be in the Depository in November. Secret Service Agent Forrest Sorrells changed the parade route on November 18th, not just before. Howeve…

Richard Charnin
Just a summary list will suffice. Column A and Column B with a statement and a link We want to see very quickly where you stand..

Carmine Savastano
Keep asking I will keep posting articles. The evidence is listed already under References. I like lists with context. I support and you can verify the sources.

Carmine Savastano
So do you have answer on the coroner’s reports? Wikipedia? How about the dozens of unproven sources prior cited from JVB’s book. Since you want to discuss evidence let everyone do so, or admit perhaps there are some problems.

Richard Charnin
Carmine, let me help you since beneath your calm veneer, you appear to be on the verge of a state of panic. Here is the list of names in JFK Calc with the official cause of 122 unnatural and suspicious deaths. You have asked me to verify the information which I have gotten from lists drawn by Penn Jones, Sylvia Meagher, Jim Marrs, Richard Belzer, David Wayne, Jesse Ventura.John Simkin and Craig Roberts. I also have provided a link to the 21 deaths noted by the HSCA:…/jfk-witnesses-a…/ .

Now you have the list of 122 names. If you want to REFUTE THE OFFICIAL CAUSES OF DEATH then I suggest that YOU go through each coroner’s report. After all, YOU WERE THE ONE WHO MADE THE CLAIM THAT THE LIST WAS NOT VERIFIABLE. RIGHT? SO GO RIGHT AHEAD AND PROVE YOUR CASE:

Carmine Savastano
Hah, Though you are a panic, I need not fear losing composure over unproven claims. So have you read the coroner’s reports? If not how do you claim the deaths were not natural as the attending coroner stated they were? I like primary evidence not secondary hypothesis.

Richard Charnin
Again, Carmine, please read my comments. I asked you to provide a list of what you believe to be unverifiable and verifiable evidence. TWO COLUMNS, with a link to support your case. CAN YOU PROVIDE THIS MENU?

Carmine Savastano
If you did not bother to review the medical evidence in each case how can you be so sure of your figures? Would that not infer errors are likely form making prior assumptions that could inflate the list unnecessarily?

Carmine Savastano
Richard, you have ignored my questions for days, answer a few and maybe I shall indulge your latest demand, or just try to change the subject because you cannot answer the question. Did you read the coroner’s report?

Richard Charnin
Must I spell it out for you? Create a spreadsheet of claims with these column headings: Claim (Evidence)- Verifiable- Unverifiable- Link

Carmine Savastano
Must I explain it requires verifiable evidence not your best guess to prove a death was mysterious? That all the lists in the world not based on verifiable evidence prove nothing. If the body of evidence does not support something it remains unproven.

Richard Charnin
The official, ruled cause of deaths are not verifiable? Prove it. The onus is on you to get the coroner’s reports for the 122 and try and refute ALL the researchers I have listed above. Now go to it and stop diverting. This is not a joke. But your avoidance is HILARIOUS.

Carmine Savastano
Yes it is verifiable. Its your list , your burden of proof. You are hilarious. You should have read them, if you chose not to, not my problem. So do you admit that 50 natural deaths were listed as not without full verification using the medical files?

Richard Charnin

Carmine Savastano
That is wonderful. Books are secondary sources. For the most accurate I would suggest medical files and primary sources. I claim anything beyond primary verifiable evidence is not verifiable. Lists do not prove things, evidence does. Better evidence gives more accurate results. Authors can use interpretation which can change the facts from as they were originally stated. It does not matter who wrote the book. Remember its not about them, you , or me, but evidence.

Richard Charnin
Carmine Savastano, get ready for Part II. I am seriously thinking of posting the contents of this thread on other JFK groups and on my blog. You will experience deja vu as you are about to be humiliated once again.

Carmine Savastano
Richard I am aware you have been talking about me for some time. I’m more than ready for your next article. Post away. I have nothing that I regret saying. So perhaps check the coroner’s reports, while your busy attempting label me whatever the latest claim is.

Judyth Baker
For those who would like a simple explanation of what Richard has done, let’s show all of you why “coroner’;s reports” are not necessary in Charnin;s work. I’ll take the example of a tsunami. In that one event, an unusual number of people llost their lives. It was a head count and no coroner’s report was needed for each victim. The unusual number of deaths spiked the statistics: you could see a correlation and everybody knew this was a ‘tsunami’ related phenomenon: all those deaths. Now, apply this to the Kennedy assassination statistics for those who had any link to the Kennedy assassination and the EXPECTED number of deaths. The spike is there. It’s a relative ‘tsunami” event. It doesn;t matter about quibbling about whether a death was declared natural or not. It doesn’t matter if a coroner lied or not or was pressured to cover up a fact or two. It has to do with the raw death count. The raw death count is outrageously out of proportion to the normal expected death count. Charnin shows you just how high that spike goes–and here we have non-statisticians quibbling about coroners’ reports. They’re out of their league and embarrassing themselves.

Judyth Baker
Maybe I’ll use “this is Judyth” a lot more, just to get their panties in a bunch, LOL!

Carmine Savastano
Judtyh here is why you are wrong. The attending medical expert knows more than you and Richard claim to and have actually seen the conditions of the body and tested them. So without contending primary evidence its your best guess. No matter who likes it or endorses it.

Richard Charnin
So Carmine, are you saying that the officially ruled homicides, accidents, suicides, sudden cancers and heart attacks are different from the coroner’s reports? Then go get the official causes of death. What is the purpose of the coroner’s report if it is not to indicate the official cause of death? You have totally embarrassed yourself and can no longer be considered credible in anything you say. If I may be frank, your statement is not just wrong, it is STUPID – even more so than anything McAdams has ever written on this subject. So here is the deal. YOU go through ALL 122 coroner reports for the OFFICIAL causes of death. Then compare each of the 122 to the OFFICIAL cause of death that a dozen JFK researchers have noted and which are included in the JFK Calc database. For the official causes of death, you need to look at column H in this JFK Calc tab. Now go to work. PROVE YOUR POINT. PROVE THAT I AM WRONG. PROVE THAT THE CAUSES OF 122 DEATHS LISTED IN JFK CALC ARE DIFFERENT FROM THE CORONER’S REPORTS. YOU SAID IT.NOW PROVE IT.

Carmine Savastano
No Richard you are. Hence your feasibly incorrect list.

Richard Charnin
Carmine, let’s put an end to this madness. Let’s get down to the basics. You appear to be confused by your repetitive demands to see the coroner reports. You apparently do not comprehend that suspicious deaths include two categories: unnatural and natural.

There were 122 suspicious deaths, of which 78 were OFFICIALLY RULED UNNATURAL: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides, 4 unknown. Of the other 44 OFFICIALLY RULED NATURAL deaths, 25 were due to heart attacks and 19 due to other causes (cancer, etc.) Only 17 UNNATURAL deaths were statistically EXPECTED among the 1400 JFK-related witnesses based on the weighted average unnatural death rate (0.000247).

Only 2 homicides were expected based on the 0.000084 average homicide rate. The probability of 34 homicides is 1.57 E-31 (1 in 6 million trillion trillion). Those were the OFFICIAL CAUSES OF DEATH. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths is even lower: 2.76E-62 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).

Based on the STATISTICAL EXPECTATION of each cause of death, I calculated an ESTIMATE of the TRUE CAUSES OF DEATH: 86 HOMICIDES, 8 ACCIDENTS, 3 SUICIDES,4 UNKNOWN, 10 HEART ATTACKS, 6 CANCERS AND 5 OTHER NATURAL. I distinguish between the OFFICIAL CAUSES OF DEATH and the estimated TRUE cause of death. BUT AS I HAVE SHOWN ABOVE, EVEN ASSUMING THE OFFICIAL CAUSE OF DEATH, THE PROBABILITIES ARE ZERO. Therefore, the estimated true cause of death is essentially a moot point even though it illustrates that the OFFICIAL CORONER REPORTS do not reflect the ACTUAL CAUSE OF DEATH.

Do you get it now, Carmine Savastano? Or will you remain in your current state of ignorance and naivete? Will you continue to persist in your insane demand that I provide coroner’s reports for each of the 122 deaths when the OFFICIAL CAUSE OF THESE DEATHS HAS BEEN PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE SINCE 1978?

Carmine Savastano
Richard, all you need is to prove with the primary evidence that you are correct. According to it not your claims you are not. Unless you assess all the relevant evidence to prove your claims. I did not mistake your claims. Suicides are unnatural not suspicious because you claim they are, 24 accidents not suspicious, 4 unknown, not suspicious, add the 44 natural deaths you never bothered to look into and that makes 72 deaths by natural or unnatural means, not suspicious without substantial proof. Unnatural means do not definitively mean suspicious, See the difference yet? I read your article just fine. Try mine. Yours is a hypothesis, not based on all the primary evidence.…/are-many-suspicious-deaths-supported&#8230;
Are many Suspicious deaths supported by Evidence?
(A rebuttal of “A closer look at the HSCA list of 21 deaths” by Richard Charnin) Some claim a large and expansive list of deaths related to the Kennedy assassination. This is in addition to the expansive plot that often accompanies such claims. Yet would a successful plot include the need to el…

Richard Charnin
Suicides and accidents and heart attacks are not suspicious? Carmine Savastano, you have lost your last chance to redeem yourself. YOU ARE TOTALLY WITHOUT A CLUE. AND I LOOK FORWARD TO POSTING YOUR COMMENTS ON MY BLOG FOR THE WHOLE WORLD TO SEE THAT FACT.

Carmine Savastano
No unless there is evidence or someone bothers to regard the medical report to prove it. Not because you claim it. Even in capital letters. Please do, then something might seem reasonable on your blog.

Richard Charnin
Judyth is right. Coroner reports are a RED HERRING. It is the spiking of deaths during periods when the individuals died before they were called to testify that is apparently beyond the capacity of Carmine’s intellect to process – like the deaths of 7 TOP FBI officials:

Improbable Timing of Witness Deaths

Suspicious deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and in 1977-78 (HSCA). In 1977, seven top FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period, five from heart attacks, one from an accidental gunshot and one from an accidental fall.

7706 LOUIS NICHOLS Former #3, responsible for JFK investigation; heart attack
7706 REGIS KENNEDY Confiscated films of assassination; heart attack
7708 JAMES CADIGAN Document expert; died from a fall in his home
7708 ALAN BELMONT Liaison to Warren Commission; natural causes
7710 J.M. ENGLISH Head of Forensic Sciences Laboratory; heart attack
7710 DONALD KAYLOR Fingerprint chemist;bogus Oswald “print” on rifle; heart attack 7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN Headed Division 5 (Counter-espionage); Gunshot accident

The timing of the 7 deaths is powerful proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt, since it is focused on a specific group within a very short time interval. The HSCA did not mention any of these deaths in its claim that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid.

For each of the four scenarios, we calculate probabilities assuming a) 7 heart attacks, b) the official cause of deaths (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents); c) 4 homicides and 3 heart attacks; d) 7 homicides. The official cause of death may not be the actual cause; heart attacks and cancer can be induced. In order to calculate the probability of witness deaths we need the mortality rates for each cause of death.


Posted by on January 24, 2015 in JFK


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JFK Witness Deaths: How many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Likely Homicides?

JFK Witness Deaths: How Many Accidents, Suicides and Natural Deaths were Likely Homicides?

Richard Charnin
Updated: July 18,2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Probability Tables and Graphs

In prior JFK witness death analyses, the focus has been on unnatural deaths (homicides, accidents, suicides and unknown causes). This post will examine the likelihood that there were many more homicides than officially reported in the period from 1964-78. The analysis assumes a base case of 1400+ JFK-related witnesses noted in “Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”.

Unnatural Deaths
Some have questioned the assumption that there were more homicides than officially reported. The 1964-78 national average annual homicide rate was 0.000084 (or 8 per 100,000). Among an estimated 1400+ JFK-related witnesses, only two (1400*15*.000084) homicides would normally have been expected in the 15 year period.

Among the 122 suspicious witness deaths from 1964-78 in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown). The other 44 deaths were natural (25 heart attacks, 6 cancers, 13 other). But mortality rates for each cause of death buttress the suspicion that many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were homicides.

There was a ZERO probability of at least 30 unnatural deaths in 1964-78 based on unweighted U.S. unnatural mortality rates. But there were 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths. Using unweighted national mortality rates, the conservative probability is E-27 (1 in a trillion trillion). Using JFK-weighted mortality rates, the probability is E-62 (1 in a trillion^5).

Calculation of estimated JFK-related homicides
Approximately 214 total deaths were expected among the estimated 1400 witness universe in the 15 year period from 1964-78. Of this total, 197 were expected natural based on average statistical mortality (103 heart attacks, 42 cancers and 52 other illnesses) and 17 expected unnatural deaths (2 homicides, 12 accidents, 3 suicides).

As stated above, of the 122 suspicious witness deaths from 1964-78 in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown).Therefore, approximately 25 of the 40 deaths ruled to be accidents and suicides were homicides. Adding 25 to the 34 ruled homicides, approximately 59 of the 122 suspicious deaths were homicides. But this does not include suspicious heart attacks and sudden cancers which may have been homicides.

Expected and official unnatural deaths, mortality rates and probabilities
Unnatural Exp Off Rate Probability
Accidents 12 24 0.000594 1 in 800
Suicides 3 16 0.000130 1 in 30 million
Homicides 2 34 0.000084 1 million trillion trillion

We determine a reasonable estimate of 63 actual homicides among the 78 ruled unnatural by simple arithmetic. Subtracting the expected number of accidental deaths and suicides from the 78 ruled unnatural:
Homicides = 63 = 78-12-3. But what about the 44 deaths ruled natural?

The 44 natural deaths include 25 heart attacks and 19 from other causes. Unlike the documented unnatural deaths in JFK Calc, we don’t know how many deaths among the 1400+ witnesses were natural heart attacks, cancers and other causes But we do know the expected numbers: 103 heart attacks, 42 cancer and 52 other.

Let’s now estimate the number of natural deaths among the 122 suspicious deaths. Applying the (122/1400) ratio, there were an estimated 9 heart attacks, 3 cancers and 4 other illnesses. Therefore, approximately 91 were homicides.
91 Homicides = 122 suspicious deaths -12 accidents -3 suicides -9 heart attacks -3 cancer -4 other

1400 witnesses:1964-78
Cause......Ruled Expected
Homicide.....34 2 expected; 91 calculated = 122-12-3-9-3-4
Accident.....24 12
Suicide......16 3
Unknown.......4 0
Heart........25 9
Cancer........6 3
Other........13 4
Total.......122 122

The sheer number of unnatural deaths and their suspicious timings constitute proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.This is a summary of the calculations and graphics for various witness groupings:

This worksheet in JFK Calc displays mortality rates for all causes of death in the 1964-1978 period (see row 40). The average rates for the period are used in the calculations.

Sensitivity Analysis
A sensitivity analysis of the probability of homicides from 1964-78 assumes 1,400 to 20,000 witnesses and 34 to 90 homicides. Scroll down to row 50 in this sheet:

For example, the conservative probability of 34 official homicides in the group of 1,400 witnesses is 1.57E-31 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). The probability is 4.97E-07 (less than 1 in a million) assuming 10,000 witnesses.

Warren Commission apologists claim that the number of witnesses is unknowable. This is false by definition since approximately 1100 witnesses were called to testify in four investigations. Sixty-seven (67) are listed in JFK Calc. And the 59 who were not called are obviously very relevant. View the JFK Calc ‘Witness Data’ sheet.

The following deaths may have very well been homicides:
24 Accidents
MAC WALLACE Auto crash; asleep at wheel.
Thomas E. Davis electrocuted
JAMES CADIGAN FBI document expert; Fall in home before HSCA interview.
WILLIAM SULLIVAN FBI#2 Asst. Dir. Gunshot before HSCA interview.

Hiram Ingram fall, died in 3 days of cancer
MAURICE GATLIN Fell from 6th floor, “heart attack”
Joseph C. Ayres Gunshot
J.A. Milteer Heater explosion
ROSCOE WHITE Industrial fire

WILLIAM WHALEY motor collision
JAMES WORRELL motorcycle crash
Leonard Pullin One-car crash
LEE BOWERS One-car crash. No autopsy.
John D. Sullivan Shot himself while cleaning his gun

MARY SHERMAN Stabbed; Electrocuted
Phil Geraci III (father) Electrocuted
Francis G. Powers * Helicopter crash
HALE BOGGS Plane crash
HUGH WARD Plane crash

Delesseps Morrison Plane crash
JIM REEVES * Plane crash
Dorothy Hunt Plane crash

16 Suicides
DAVID FERRIE Brain Aneurysm (Karate Chop?)
William H. Cooper Gunshot 5 days after auto crash
ROGER CRAIG Gunshot; many attempts on life.
GARY UNDERHILL Gunshot said CIA would kill him
Robert Alan Surrey Gunshot before HSCA testimony

GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT Gunshot (on day of HSCA interview)
WILLIAM PITZER Gunshot (just before retirement)
LISA HOWARD * Drug overdose on vacation.
Darrell W. Garner Drug overdose.
GRANT STOCKDALE * JFK friend; “people trying to kill me”; fall from building.

William Pawley * Gunshot
BETTY MACDONALD Hanged in Dallas Jail
James Truitt Gunshot to the head
ALBERT BOGARD Carbon monoxide in car
Bill Waters Drug overdose (Demorol). No autopsy.
Maurice Baker * Gunshot to the head

15 Heart attack
TOM HOWARD 48 years old
James Chaney 55
Nicholas Chetta 50
Ralph Yates 39
Billy Lovelady 41

Thomas Karamessines 61
William Harvey 61
LOUIS NICHOLAS FBI In charge of JFK investigation: before HSCA interview.
J.M. ENGLISH FBI Head of Forensic sciences; before HSCA interview.

DONALD KAYLOR FBI Fingerprint expert; before HSCA interview.
REGIS KENNEDY FBI Oswald handler; before HSCA interview.
Desmond Fitzgerald Died playing tennis at 57.
BILL CHESHER Predicted he would be killed.
Winston Scott Son claimed CIA said unnatural death.

6 Cancer/Illness
FLORENCE SMITH Leukemia/ hemorrhage at 45
CLIFF CARTER Pneumonia (“penicillin unavailable”)
FRANK MARTIN Sudden cancer
MANUEL ARTIME Sudden cancer at 45.
Paul Dyer Sudden cancer in 28 days at 33.
JACK RUBY Sudden cancer in 29 days at 56

Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T=15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: The probability P of n=34 official ruled homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.57E-31 = 1 in 6 million trillion trillion

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals: P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion). Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.


Posted by on November 8, 2013 in JFK, Uncategorized


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JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

JFK Witness Deaths: Graphical Proof of a Conspiracy

Richard Charnin
Oct.14, 2013
Updated:Aug.29, 2015

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database
Probability Tables

This post is updated for the latest data, analysis and graphics from the JFK Calc Spreadsheet/database of Unnatural and Suspicious Deaths. Mortality rates used for expected deaths and probabilities are from

The Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events based on the difference between the actual and statistically expected number.

Assuming that 1400+ material witnesses were connected to the assassination, then based on annual mortality rates for major causes of death, 214 deaths were expected in the 1964-78 period (196 natural and 18 unnatural). Among the 122 suspicious deaths in JFK Calc, 78 were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 16 suicides, 24 accidents, 4 unknown). The probability is:
P = E-61 (1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion).

Forty-four (44) deaths were officially ruled natural (heart attacks, cancers, other). But many accidents, suicides and natural deaths were likely homicides. Therefore, unnatural deaths were adjusted to 96 (85 homicides) based on cause of death mortality. Given N=1400 witnesses, T=15 years, n=96 unnatural deaths, R=0.000127 (JFK-weighted mortality), the expected number of unnatural deaths is:
E = 2.66 = 1400*15*0.000127
The probability: P = Poisson (96, 2.66, false) = 3.26E-111

To put the magnitude of the probabilities in context, there are approximately 10^24 (one trillion trillion) stars in the universe. The virtual ZERO probability of guessing the name of a star is much higher than the probability that there was not a conspiracy to assassinate JFK. It is mathematical proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt.

These books are highly recommended for detailed information on JFK witnesses:
Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination by Michael Benson (1400+ names, 97 in JFK Calc)
Hit List by Richard Belzer and David Wayne (50 suspicious deaths, all in JFK Calc)
Crossfire by Jim Marrs (103 “convenient” deaths, virtually all in JFK Calc)
They Killed Our President by Jesse Ventura, Richard Russell and David Wayne (63 reasons)

John Simkin JFK Index
Seventy (70) of the 656 names in the Index are included among 126 suspicious deaths in the JFK Calc spreadsheet. Officially 44 deaths were ruled unnatural, including 22 homicides. Only 8 unnatural deaths would be expected based on historical mortality rates.

The probability of 44 unnatural deaths among the 656 from 1964-78 is
P= E-41 (one in one trillion trillion trillion).

The probability of 22 homicides given the 0.000084 national homicide rate is P = 6.4E-24 (one in a 150 billion trillion). If we triple the rate (over 50 witnesses were from the Dallas area), the probability is P= 4.3E-14 (one in 23 trillion).

Statistical expectations of the 44 officially ruled accidents, suicides, heart attacks and sudden cancers indicate that approximately 26 were HOMICIDES. Therefore, there were approximately 48 homicides among the 70 suspicious deaths. The probability of 48 homicides is less than 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion!

This is an interesting article on the coverup:

Expected Deaths (1964-78)
1400 material witnesses
(based on annual mortality rates)
Natural. 196 14.02%
Unnatural 18 1.25%
Total… 214 15.28%

JFK Calc: 122 witness deaths (expected vs. actual)
Cause of Death…(Exp)ected (Off)icial (Est)imated (Rate: 1964-78 avg. mortality)
Cause..........Exp Off Est (Rate)
Homicide...... 1.77 34 85 (0.000084)
Accident..... 12.47 24 08 (0.000594)
Suicide....... 2.73 16 04 (0.000130)
Unknown........0.22 04 04 (0.000010)
Total..........17.2 78 101 (0.000818)

Cardiac…….. 8.7 25 10 (0.004913)
Cancer……… 3.5 05 04 (0.001991)
Other………. 4.6 14 07 (0.002480)
Total……….16.8 44 21 (0.009375)

Expected Deaths
…. Begin Card Canc Vasc Other Acc Suic Homic Alive
1964 1,400 7.61 2.71 2.39 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,385
1965 1,385 7.60 2.74 2.37 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.08 1,370
1966 1,370 7.58 2.75 2.36 1.25 0.92 0.18 0.08 1,355
1967 1,355 7.35 2.76 2.33 1.24 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,340
1968 1,340 7.43 2.78 2.32 1.26 0.92 0.18 0.09 1,325
1969 1,325 7.24 2.78 2.30 1.27 0.92 0.18 0.10 1,310
1970 1,310 6.90 2.78 2.27 1.27 0.91 0.18 0.10 1,296
1971 1,296 6.90 2.79 2.25 1.26 0.90 0.18 0.10 1,281
1972 1,281 6.86 2.80 2.23 1.25 0.90 0.18 0.11 1,267
1973 1,267 6.75 2.80 2.21 1.25 0.89 0.18 0.11 1,253
1974 1,253 6.42 2.82 2.19 1.24 0.88 0.18 0.11 1,239
1975 1,239 6.04 2.80 2.15 1.23 0.87 0.18 0.12 1,225
1976 1,225 5.98 2.84 2.12 1.22 0.85 0.18 0.12 1,212
1977 1,212 5.79 2.85 2.08 1.21 0.84 0.18 0.12 1,199
1978 1,199 5.74 2.87 2.04 1.20 0.83 0.18 0.12 1,186

Expected ..102.. 42.. 34.. 19.. 13… 3… 2.. 214
Share……7.3% 3.0% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 15.3%


1- Deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

2. 67 of 122 witnesses in JFK Calc were sought in four investigations.

3. Unnatural deaths far exceeded expected based on national mortality rates.

4. The probability of 33 unnatural deaths (there were 78 official) among 1400 witnesses is ZERO.

5. Sensitivity analysis probabilities:10-50 unnatural deaths; 1500-2500 witnesses.

6. Even assuming 25,000 FBI interviews, the probability of at least 38 homicides in 1964-66 is E-23. Only 4-5 would normally be expected.

7. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths (17 homicides) of 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-78. Only 7 would normally be expected.

8. There were at least 42 homicides of 1100 witnesses sought in 4 investigations. Only one was expected.

9. The probability of 15 unnatural deaths in 7 years and 30 deaths in 15 years is ZERO.

10. Given 1400 JFK-related witnesses and average 1964-78 U.S. unnatural mortality rates, the ZERO probability threshold is 30 deaths. The unweighted probability of 96 unnatural deaths is E-39. The JFK-weighted probability is E-111.

11. Estimated Expected (214) and Actual (291) deaths of 1400 JFK-related individuals (1964-78) ; 122 listed in JFK Calc

12. About 51 of the 122 deaths were in Dallas which has a higher mortality rate than the national average. I tripled the national homicide rate from 0.000084 to 0.000253. The probability P of 34 official homicides using the adjusted Dallas rate is P = 7.60e-17 or 1 in 13,000 trillion.

Sample Probabilities

At least 18 deaths (13 unnatural); assume 459 witnesses

Normally, 2 unnatural deaths would be expected.
Using the 0.000207 weighted rate, the probability is ZERO.
P = E-17 = POISSON (13, .29, false)
P = 1 in 100,000 trillion

WARREN COMMISSION- 552 witnesses
At least 21 unnatural deaths among 552 witnesses

Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected from 1964-78.
Using the 0.000135 weighted WC witness rate, the probability of at least 21 unnatural deaths is ZERO:
P = E-20 = POISSON (21, 1.12, false)
P = 1 in 15 million trillion

Probability of 18 homicides is ZERO:
P = E-19 = POISSON(18, 0.53, false)
P = 1 in 8 million trillion

1400 MATERIAL WITNESSES (Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination)
1964-66: at least 45 unnatural deaths
Normally, 3 would be expected.
Using the 0.000842 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-33 = POISSON (45, 3.53, false)
P = 1 in 10 million trillion trillion

1964-78: at least 96 estimated unnatural deaths
Normally, 17 would be expected.
Using the 0.000818 unweighted national rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-39 = POISSON (96, 17.18, false)
P = 1 in 1000 trillion trillion trillion

Using the JFK-weighted rate (0.000127):
P = E-111 = POISSON (96, 2.66, false)

1964-78: at least 80 estimated homicides.
Normally, 2 would be expected.
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-100 = POISSON (80, 1.77, false)

Four Investigations: 1100+ witnesses called or sought to testify
49 unnatural deaths (14 expected).
Using the 0.000106 unnatural weighted rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-51 = POISSON (49, 1.81, false)

1964-78: 25,000 FBI Interviews
At least 80 homicides (32 expected)
Using the 0.000084 average national homicide rate, the probability is ZERO:
P = E-23 = POISSON (80, 31.62, false)
P= 1 in 2 trillion


Witnesses: N
Homicides: n
Time: T= 15 years
Rate: R= 0.000084
Prob: P= POISSON(n, N*R*T, false)

Example: In the table, the probability P of n=50 homicides among N=1400 JFK-related individuals over the T=15 years from 1964-78 is
P= 1.42E-53 = 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 001

The probability is of course higher assuming N=8000 JFK-related individuals:
P= 2.38E-19 (1 in 4 million trillion).
Ten (8000*15*0.000084) homicides would normally be expected.

………………………………….Homicides (n) …………………….
N……10…… 20…… 30…… 40…… 50…… 60…… 70…… 80
Warren Commission
552 3.77E-09 1.55E-22 3.90E-38 3.48E-55 2.57E-73 2.58E-92 4.93E-112 2.27E-132

4 Investigations
1100 1.86E-06 7.54E-17 1.88E-29 1.66E-43 1.21E-58 1.20E-74 2.26E-91 1.03E-108

“Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination”
1400 1.42E-05 6.41E-15 1.78E-26 1.75E-39 1.42E-53 1.58E-68 3.31E-84 1.68E-100

Warren Commission Index
2479 1.10E-03 1.50E-10 1.27E-19 3.78E-30 9.30E-42 3.12E-54 1.99E-67 3.05E-81

3000 3.83E-03 3.53E-09 2.00E-17 4.03E-27 6.67E-38 1.51E-49 6.47E-62 6.70E-75
4000 1.92E-02 3.15E-07 3.17E-14 1.13E-22 3.33E-32 1.33E-42 1.02E-53 1.87E-65

5000 5.05E-02 7.70E-06 7.22E-12 2.40E-19 6.58E-28 2.46E-37 1.75E-47 2.99E-58
6000 8.83E-02 8.34E-05 4.84E-10 9.96E-17 1.69E-24 3.91E-33 1.72E-42 1.82E-52

7000 1.16E-01 5.14E-04 1.39E-08 1.34E-14 1.06E-21 1.15E-29 2.36E-38 1.17E-47
8000 1.25E-01 2.10E-03 2.16E-07 7.89E-13 2.38E-19 9.78E-27 7.63E-35 1.44E-43



Posted by on October 14, 2013 in JFK


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JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

JFK Witness Death Probability Calculations: Data and Methodology

Richard Charnin
August 30, 2013

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

Richard Charnin JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

This post will illustrate the methodology used to calculate the probabilities of the unnatural deaths of JFK witnesses. JFK Calc: A Spreadsheet/Database of Mysterious Witness Deaths contains 122 JFK-related suspicious deaths, probability calculations, graphs and links to other data sources.

When the film Executive Action was released in 1973, it ignited a controversy. It noted that an actuary engaged by the London Times calculated 100,000 trillion to one odds that 18 material witnesses would be dead within three years of the assassination (8 homicides, 2 suicides, 3 accidents, 3 heart attacks and 2 from natural causes). In 1979. a statistician testified at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) and claimed that since the witness universe was unknowable, the calculation was invalid, effectively stating that the problem as unsolvable. At that point, the controversy apparently ended. No one has come forth since to analyze the problem while political pundits, bloggers and others have quoted the HSCA result as gospel. But a fairly straightforward mathematical analysis confirms the actuary’s calculation – and proof of a conspiracy.

As noted in previous posts, the universe of witnesses is known. Approximately 1100 were called to testify at the Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate and HSCA investigations. Of the 1100, 67 are included in JFK Calc. Of the 552 witnesses were interviewed by the Warren Commission, at least 30 died suspiciously (20 unnaturally) from 1964-1978.

Warren Commission defenders who try to refute witness connections to the assassination can no longer make that claim: the witnesses were relevant enough to be called to testify in at least one of the four investigations. But even the connection is a non-issue. What matters is that among a known universe of witnesses, a statistically impossible number died from unnatural causes. That is a mathematical certainty. The mortality data constitutes the factual evidence in plain sight. The probability calculations of the these unnatural deaths are 1 in trillions. This should put an end to the debate. Anyone who follows the analysis and still defends the Warren Commission report is either a fool or a fraud. Those who cannot follow it have no basis for even attempting to refute it.

The JFC Calc database includes 122 witnesses who died mysteriously in the 15 years following the JFK assassination (there have likely been many others). The witnesses are primarily from Jim Marrs’ Crossfire list.

At least 78 deaths were officially ruled unnatural (34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 from unknown causes). Based on unnatural death statistics, approximately 17 would normally be expected. But the suicides, accidental and “natural” deaths were highly suspicious; there were probably more than 78 unnatural deaths. At least some of the “natural” deaths may have been induced heart attacks or poisonings. If they were in fact homicides, the weighted unnatural mortality rate and associated probabilities would be lower (the homicide rate is much lower than accidents and suicides). But it’s a moot point; the probabilities are essentially zero for the official causes of death.

According to the reference Who’s Who in the JFK Assassination, there were approximately 1400 individuals related to the assassination. Of this group, 97 are included in JFK Calc. The other 25 who are not in Who’s Who are very relevant.

Convenient deaths spiked in 1964 (Warren Commission) and 1977 (House Select Committee).

These graphs are mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

To calculate probabilities, we need just a few data inputs:
a) N, the number of material witnesses
b) n, the number of unnatural deaths by type (homicide, suicide, accident)
c) R, the weighted average unnatural mortality rate
d) T, the time period

There are a number of ways to calculate the probabilities.
1. Choose the universe of witnesses: WC (552); four investigations (1100); HSCA, Who’s Who (1400 est.)
2. Choose the appropriate mortality rate to apply (total unnatural, homicide, weighted)
3. Determine the time period: 1, 3, 15 years

The simplest approach is to use the total unnatural rate. Nationally, suicides and accidental deaths are 10 times more likely than homicides. But among the JFK-witnesses, at least 34 of the 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths were homicides. The average weighted mortality rate is a function of the number and causes of unnatural deaths, not just the total number. The weighted rate is
R= 0.000247=(0.000084*34 + 0.000594*24 + 0.000130*16 + 0.00001*3)/ 78

The next step is to calculate the probabilities using the POISSON spreadsheet function, a simple tool which requires just the observed (n) and expected (E) number of unnatural deaths. E is the product of the total number (N) of witnesses in a group, the mortality rate (R) and time period (T) in years.

In the spreadsheet we calculate the exact probability P of n deaths among N witnesses in T years as
P = POISSON (n, E, false). Probability of at least n deaths is P = 1 – POISSON (n-1, E, true).


Unweighted and Weighted Mortality Rates

JFK Calc has all the information required for a robust analysis: a) known witness universe, b) official cause of death, c) average unnatural mortality rates and d) the relevant time period (1964-1978). The weighted unnatural rate is the sum-product of the individual unnatural rates and corresponding deaths.

Nationally, accidents comprised 66% of unnatural deaths compared to 11% for homicides. But 44% (34 of 78) JFK witness unnatural deaths were homicides. Therefore we need to weight the JFK-witness rates by cause of death. If the analysis was restricted to homicides the mathematical proof would be simpler and even more powerful.

To Tom Hanks, Vince Bugliosi, Stephen King, Rachel Maddow et al: The case for conspiracy is closed. You are beating a dead horse. You continue to shill for the Warren Commission which Jim Garrison called a fairy tale and Richard Nixon said was one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the public. If after reading this mathematical proof, along with the mountain of physical evidence which proves a conspiracy, you still persist in telling the people lies, then you are complicit in aiding and perpetuating the crime of the century and can go back to sleep. That is, if you still can sleep at night.

1 Comment

Posted by on August 16, 2013 in JFK


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