Richard Charnin

Jan. 28, 2016

Election Models indicate that the 2014 North Carolina senate election was likely stolen.

Willis (R) defeated Hagan (D) by 45,000 votes (48.8-47.3%).

**I. True Vote Model**

**Given: Obama lost NC in 2012 by 92,000 recorded votes (50.4-48.4%).**

** Hagan wins by 17,000 votes (48.5-47.9%)**

**Assume Obama won the True Vote by 185,000 votes (51.4-47.4%),**

** Hagan wins by 155,000 votes (50.9-45.5%) **

**Base Case Assumptions**

**Assume Obama won in 2012 by 51.4-47.4%.**

1) 60% turnout of Obama and Romney voters,

2) Hagan had 92% of returning Obama voters

3) Willis had 90% of Romney voters

4) Hagan had 47% and Willis 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012.

** Hagan** ** wins by 155,000 votes: 50.9-45.9%**

**Sensitivity analysis I: Returning vote shares**

Worst case scenario: Hagan has 88% of returning Obama and 5% of Romney voters.

**Hagan loses by 4,000 votes with 48.1%.**

Best case scenario: Hagan has 96% of Obama and 9% of Romney voters.

**Hagan wins by 314,000 votes with 53.6%.**

**Sensitivity analysis II: 2012 voter turnout in 2014**

Worst case scenario: 58% of Obama and 62% of Romney voters return in 2014.

**Hagan wins by 81,000 votes with 49.6%.**

Best case scenario: 62% of Obama and 58% of Romney voters return in 2014.

**Hagan wins by 230,000 votes with 52.1%.**

**II. Voter Turnout Model**

Party registration: Democrats 41.7%- Republicans 30.4%- Independents 27.8%

Exit Poll Party-ID: Democrats 36.0%- Republicans 35.0%- Independents 29.0%

Party-ID was adjusted to force a match to the recorded vote

**Assumptions: **

**Party Registration split**

**61% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans turned out.**

**Hagan wins by 50.9-45.4% (161,000 votes).**

**III. Uncounted Vote Model**

Given: 260,000 of 3.17 million votes cast were uncounted.

**Assumption: Hagan had 75% of the uncounted votes.**

**Hagan wins by 206,000 votes (51.6-45.1%)**

**Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004**

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NoLTeS9HflwTNJgi5n8nNLdomjxh6eKjoy5FuOmqsVU/pub