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2016 Census Race Demographic & National Exit Poll indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.27, 2019

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This analysis of the 2016 National Exit Poll Race cross tab and corresponding Vote Census indicates that Clinton did not win the true popular vote.

She won the recorded vote, which is never the same as the true vote. The recorded vote is often fraudulent. The National Exit Poll (NEP) is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires adjusting the category percentage mix and corresponding vote shares. 

Recorded vote:  Clinton  48.25%- Trump 46.17%;  Margin 2.83 mil; Trump has 57% of whites. The NEP indicates Whites were 71% of the electorate.

The Census indicates Whites were 73.3% of the electorate (0.4% MoE). Making just this change to the NEP and keeping vote shares constant, Trump wins by 703,000.

Sensitivity Analysis (assume Whites 73.3% of the electorate)
1. Trump 57% of whites+21% other (black, hispanic, asian, other)
Trump 47.39%- Clinton 46.88%;   Margin 703,000

2. Trump 58% of whites+21% other 
Trump 48.12%-Clinton 46.14%; Margin 2.700 million

3. Trump 59% of whites+22% other 
Trump 49.12%-Clinton 45.14%; Margin 5.425 million

National Exit
Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37.0% 57.0% 6.0%
Non-white 29.0% 74.0% 21.0% 5.0% Clinton Margin
Calc 100.0% 47.73% 46.56% 5.71% 1.17%
136,216 65,016 63,422 7,778 1,594
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833

……

Census
National Exit Poll
Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 73.31% 37.0% 57.0% 6.0%
Non-white 26.69% 74.0% 21.0% 5.0% Trump Margin
Calc 100.00% 46.88% 47.39% 5.73% 0.52%
136,216 63,852 64,555 7,809 703
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833

Sensitivity Analysis

Trump % White
Trump % 57.0% 58.0% 59.0% 60.0% 61.0%
Non-white Trump
24.0% 48.19% 48.93% 49.66% 50.39% 51.12%
23.0% 47.93% 48.66% 49.39% 50.12% 50.86%
22.0% 47.66% 48.39% 49.12% 49.86% 50.59%
21.0% 47.39% 48.12% 48.86% 49.59% 50.32%
20.0% 47.12% 47.86% 48.59% 49.32% 50.06%
Clinton
24.0% 46.07% 45.34% 44.61% 43.88% 43.14%
23.0% 46.34% 45.61% 44.88% 44.14% 43.41%
22.0% 46.61% 45.88% 45.14% 44.41% 43.68%
21.0% 46.88% 46.14% 45.41% 44.68% 43.94%
20.0% 47.14% 46.41% 45.68% 44.94% 44.21%
Trump margin
24.0% 2,885 4,882 6,879 8,876 10,873
23.0% 2,158 4,155 6,152 8,149 10,146
22.0% 1,430 3,428 5,425 7,422 9,419
21.0% 703 2,700 4,698 6,695 8,692
20.0% -24 1,973 3,971 5,968 7,965
Census NEP
Census 2016 Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 100,849 73.31% 37% 57% 6%
Black 17,119 12.44% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 12,682 9.22% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 5,049 3.67% 65% 27% 8%
Other 1,843 1.34% 56% 36% 8%
Calc 137,567 100.0% 47.42% 46.84% 5.73%
65,234 64,431 7,877
Margin 803
National Exit Poll
NEP Pct Clinton Trump Other
White 71.0% 37% 57% 6%
Black 12.0% 89% 8% 3%
Latino 11.0% 66% 28% 6%
Asian 4.0% 65% 27% 8%
Other 2.0% 56% 36% 8% Clinton Margin
Calc 100.00% 47.93% 46.31% 5.76% 1.62%
136,216 65,288 63,082 7,846 2,207
Recorded 48.25% 46.17% 5.70% 2.08%
136,216 65,724 62,891 7,764 2,833

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1447777586
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1088655249
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

Other adjustments: True Vote Sensitivity
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit?fbclid=IwAR3x0INVIU5VkxsAhSG4IU3JonEc0DOThwK2iwBIoQVx92ld6feg4DM1SfA#gid=1672204415

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Posted by on January 27, 2019 in 2016 election, Uncategorized

 

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17 House races: What if?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2018

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The Dems led by 203-194 on Election Day. They won 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability – and won the House by 235-200.

In the expected 50/50 split of the 38 tossups, the GOP would win 19 races and need just five additional seats to win the House. The math: 218 = 194+19+5.

Consider the 17 House tossups in the table below. The GOP led the 17-poll average by 1%, but the Dems won all 17 elections by 2%. The GOP led in 10 of the 17 tossups by 2.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Dem Poll Rep Poll Margin WinProb Dem vote Rep vote Margin
Average 45.12 46.08 0.96 60.2% 50.36 48.39 1.98
2-party 49.47 50.53 1.05 51.00 49.00 2.00
CA25 44 48 4 85.7% 51.7 48.3 3.4
CA39 48 52 4 83.6% 50.5 49.5 1.0
CA45 46 50 4 84.6% 50.8 49.2 1.6
CA48 44 48 4 85.7% 52.0 48.0 4.0
MI8 45 48 3 78.5% 50.6 46.8 3.8
VA7 44 46 2 70.7% 50.3 48.5 1.8
NM2 44.5 46.3 1.8 68.6% 50.7 49.3 1.4
NJ3 44 45 1 60.8% 49.9 48.8 1.1
NY22 45 46 1 60.6% 50.3 49.7 0.6
TX7 45 46 1 60.6% 52.3 47.7 4.6
FL26 45 44 -1 39.2% 50.9 49.1 1.8
ME2 47 46 -1 39.6% 46.2 45.5 0.7
NC9 45 44 -1 39.2% 49.4 48.8 0.6
NY19 43 42 -1 38.7% 50.2 47.3 2.9
IA3 44.5 43 -1.5 33.7% 49.0 47.5 1.5
CA10 47 45 -2 29.7% 50.9 49.1 1.8
GA6 46 44 -2 29.3% 50.5 49.5 1.0

 

 
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Posted by on November 23, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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