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17 House races: What if?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2018

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The Dems led by 203-194 on Election Day. They won 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability – and won the House by 235-200.

In the expected 50/50 split of the 38 tossups, the GOP would win 19 races and need just five additional seats to win the House. The math: 218 = 194+19+5.

Consider the 17 House tossups in the table below. The GOP led the 17-poll average by 1%, but the Dems won all 17 elections by 2%. The GOP led in 10 of the 17 tossups by 2.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Dem Poll Rep Poll Margin WinProb Dem vote Rep vote Margin
Average 45.12 46.08 0.96 60.2% 50.36 48.39 1.98
2-party 49.47 50.53 1.05 51.00 49.00 2.00
CA25 44 48 4 85.7% 51.7 48.3 3.4
CA39 48 52 4 83.6% 50.5 49.5 1.0
CA45 46 50 4 84.6% 50.8 49.2 1.6
CA48 44 48 4 85.7% 52.0 48.0 4.0
MI8 45 48 3 78.5% 50.6 46.8 3.8
VA7 44 46 2 70.7% 50.3 48.5 1.8
NM2 44.5 46.3 1.8 68.6% 50.7 49.3 1.4
NJ3 44 45 1 60.8% 49.9 48.8 1.1
NY22 45 46 1 60.6% 50.3 49.7 0.6
TX7 45 46 1 60.6% 52.3 47.7 4.6
FL26 45 44 -1 39.2% 50.9 49.1 1.8
ME2 47 46 -1 39.6% 46.2 45.5 0.7
NC9 45 44 -1 39.2% 49.4 48.8 0.6
NY19 43 42 -1 38.7% 50.2 47.3 2.9
IA3 44.5 43 -1.5 33.7% 49.0 47.5 1.5
CA10 47 45 -2 29.7% 50.9 49.1 1.8
GA6 46 44 -2 29.3% 50.5 49.5 1.0

 

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Posted by on November 23, 2018 in 2018 Elections

 

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