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Nate Silver and Election Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov. 17, 2014

Look inside the books:
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

JFK Blog Posts
Probability/ Statistical Analysis Spreadsheets:
JFK Calc: Suspicious Deaths, Source of Shots Surveys;
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls

Once again, Nate Silver misdirects his readers in reviewing the 2014 elections. He claims that the polls were biased to the Democrats. He never considers that the polls were close to the true vote but that the vote counts were rigged. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-were-skewed-toward-democrats/

Nate Silver never discusses Election Fraud, even though it has been proven systemic. I pointed this a few years ago in a reply to his post on why we should not believe exit polls. His knowledge of exit polls was (and apparently still is) non-existent. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/

As usual Nate cites polling “bias”. But not a word about the fact that early pre-election polls include all registered voters (RVs). As we move toward Election Day, the polls are transformed to the subset of Likely Voters (LVs) – with the effect of reducing projected Democratic turnout and vote share.

The true bias is that pollsters skew the projections in order to match the expected fraudulent recorded vote. Nate Silver never considers that the RV polls are usually close to the truth – but that the LV polls are biased against the Democrats. So it’s just the opposite from Nate’s view. He believes the official vote counts are accurate, but researchers who analyze the historical record see a consistent 4-5% “red shift” to the GOP. It is absolute proof that the recorded vote counts are fraudulent and biased for the Republicans. http://electiondefensealliance.org/?q=voter_cutoff_model

Nate never discusses the fact that exit polls are always forced to match the bogus recorded vote. The pollsters admit that it is standard operating procedure. Their rationale is that the polls must always be wrong since they deviate so greatly from the recorded vote. Of course we never get to see the unadjusted exit polls until years later, if then. The 1988-2008 unadjusted presidential state and national exit polls showed that the Democrats won by an average of 52-42%. But the recorded vote had them winning by just 48-46%
I just posted the True Vote model for the Wisconsin and Florida governor races. Both races were stolen in 2014- just like they were in 2010 and the 2012 Walker recall. .

In the 2010 Florida Governor election, the unadjusted exit poll and the True Vote Model indicated that Sink won by 5%, yet Scott won the recorded vote by 1%. In 2014, Scott won again. The 2-party vote shares were identical! Scott had 50.59% in 2010 and 50.58% in 2014! A coincidence? Hardly.The Florida 2014 Exit Poll indicates a 31-35-33 Dem-Rep-Ind split (over-weighted for Republicans) with 91% of Dems voting for Crist, 88% of Repubs voting for Scott. Crist won Independents by 46-44%. When we change the split to a more plausible 34-33-33, Crist is the winner by 49.4-45.6%. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/14/florida-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

In the 2014 Wisconsin Governor election, a True Vote analysis indicates that Walker stole the election, just like the recall in 2012. View the True Vote analysis: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/

The easiest way to understand that our elections are fraudulent is to look at the 2004 presidential election. According to the adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (as posted on major media sites), there were 52.6 million returning Bush 2000 voters (43% of the 2004 electorate) and 37% returning Gore voters. Recall that Gore won the popular vote by 540,000. Gore won the unadjusted exit polls by 50-45% (he actually won the True Vote by 3-5 million).

But Bush had only 50.5 million recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and one million did not return. Therefore, there were at least 5 million (52.6-47.5) phantom Bush voters. The exit pollsters had to adjust the unadjusted, pristine National Exit poll which showed Kerry a 52-47% winner to make Bush a 51-48% winner. Bush needed an impossible 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters to match the recorded vote. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/fixing-the-exit-polls-to-match-the-policy/

And finally, here is the ultimate proof of systemic election fraud. In the 274 state presidential unadjusted exit polls from 1988-2008, the Democrats won the polls by 52-42%, exactly matching my True Vote Model. But they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%. Of the 274 exit polls 135 exceeded the margin of error, 131 in favor of the Republican. The probability P of that discrepancy is E-116 or
P= 0.0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001.

1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Take anything from Nate Silver with a BIG GRAIN OF SALT. He never mentions PROVEN ELECTION FRAUD . And don’t forget that he had the gall to rank famous pollster Zogby dead last in his evaluation of pollsters a number of years back while ranking dedicated GOP pollsters at the top.

I have written several open-letter posts for Nate. He has not responded to any.

1. An Open Letter to Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
2. An Open Letter to Nate Silver (Part 2) http://richardcharnin.com/OpenLettertoNateSilver.htm
3.Twenty-five Questions for Nate Silver http://richardcharnin.com/TwentySilver.htm
4.A Reply to Nate Silver’s “Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls” https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/a-reply-to-nate-silvers-ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit-polls/
5. Zogby vs. Silver: 1996-2008 True vs. Recorded Vote Pollster Rankings http://richardcharnin.com/SilverRankings.htm

The bottom line: Nate works for the major corporate media which is not interested in divulging why pre-election and exit pollsters adjust the polls to match fraudulent vote counts. They will never plead guilty.

This is a summary of my track record in forecasting the 1988-2012 presidential elections, unadjusted exit polls and True Vote Models. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/

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Posted by on November 17, 2014 in Election Myths, Media, Rebuttals

 

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Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Wisconsin 2014 Governor True Vote/Exit Poll Analysis Indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Nov.19, 2014
Update: Aug. 16, 2016

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Election Fraud: True Vote Models, State and National Unadjusted Exit Polls
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004

After 12 years of posting election fraud statistical models, I decided not to forecast the 2014 election or do a post-election True Vote analysis. Systemic Election Fraud was  proven beyond any doubt, so why bother? Nothing has changed, the media remains mute on the fraud and congress refuses to do anything about it.

I  had worked closely with Wisconsin election reform activists on the 2011 Supreme Court election, the state recalls and Walker recall.   When I was asked to look into the 2014 WI governor election, I felt like Al Pacino in Godfather III: Just when I thought I was out of it, they pulled me back in again. Since I decided to bypass 2014, I did not even know who was running against Walker.

The key to understanding how elections are rigged is to study the exit polls and cumulative vote shares.The pattern keeps repeating: exit polls are adjusted to match the recorded vote. It’s a fact. The pollsters admit it, but claim it is to correct the errant polls.  The assumption is that the recorded vote count is pristine and there is no fraud. At least that is what the pollsters and pundits would like us to believe.

Unadjusted exit polls are not released until years later, so we are left with the adjusted polls (national, state, governor) for clues. In order to adjust the exit poll to match the recorded vote, the returning voter mix from the previous election and/or each candidate’s share of returning and new voters must be changed. All crosstabs must be adjusted. I have stated this often in posts as far back as 2004 as well as in my books. In turned out that the 2014 WI election was 2012 deja vu all over again.

To analyze the 2014 Wisconsin Governor race, I created 2014WIGov.  It contains the following worksheets (sheet names in quotes):
– 2014 National House Exit Poll (‘2014 NEP’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Gov. Exit Poll (‘WI Exit Poll’)
– 2014 Wisconsin County Vote vs. 2012 Recall Vote (“Counties’)
– 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model (‘True Vote’)

View the: 2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model

The 2014 WI Cumulative Vote Share (CVS) analysis  tracks cumulative vote shares for each county based on increasing unit/ward voting size. The odd pattern of increasing Walker vote shares in large Democratic counties is similar to the 2012 WI recall. This counter-intuitive trend is highly indicative of fraud. View the  2014 Wisconsin Governor Cumulative County/Ward Vote shares and graphs

2014 National Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
This sheet contains a selected set of cross tabs (demographics). The Gender demographic is within 0.1% of the recorded vote. The theoretical margin of error was approximately 2%. The probability of the 0.1% adjusted exit poll deviation from the recorded vote is close to zero – only because the pollsters forced the match. But that’s not news. It’s standard operating procedure -and obviously unscientific. It’s like a serial thief daring the police to stop him, but they don’t even though they have his fingerprints.

WI Exit Poll (forced to match the recorded vote)
Like virtually all exit polls, it was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by adjusting the number of returning voters to favor the GOP. Returning Walker voters comprised 50% of the 2014 vote total while Barrett voters at 35%. The 15% differential is much higher than Walker’s 7% recorded margin in 2012. But consider that Barrett likely won the 2012 True Vote by 6% – and a whopping 21% discrepancy in margin. Just as in every presidential exit poll, the returning voter percentages were implausible. How could there be a 15% excess of returning Walker 2012 voters over returning Barrett voters?

In the “How Voted in 2012” cross tab, vote shares are missing for Other (3%) and New Voters (DNV 11%). The result is a Walker landslide by 55.4-43.1%, a whopping 12.3% margin. But he had a bogus 52.9% recorded share. The two basic clues that the 2014 election was fixed are obvious from the adjusted exit poll:
1) The 2012 returning voter mix is highly implausible.
2) Vote shares for 14% of the 2014 electorate are not available.

The standard election fraud “tell” is that the returning voter mix has been adjusted to increase the Republican share. When the mix is changed to a feasible Barrett/Walker 45/41% mix, Burke is the winner by 52.3-47.3%

WISCONSIN 2014 EXIT POLL (forced to match recorded vote)
GENDER..........Pct Burke Walker
Male............49% 39.0% 60.0%
Female..........51% 54.0% 45.0%
Total..........100% 46.7% 52.4%
Recorded........... 47.1% 52.9%
Difference........ -0.46% -0.54%
VOTED IN 2012 RECALL (suspicious turnout in 2014 and 14% na)
2012……………….. Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett……..35% 96.0% 04.0%
Scott Walker…….50% 05.0% 94.0%
Other ………………3% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
DNV ……………….11% 50.0% 50.0% (na, set to 50/50)
Recorded…………99% 43.1% 55.4%
TRUE VOTE
……………………..Pct Burke Walker
Tom Barrett…… 45% 96.0% 4.0% (set to plausible 45/41% returning voter mix)
Scott Walker……41% 05.0% 94.0%
Other……………..3% 50.0% 50.0%
DNV………………11% 52.0% 48.0% (adjust new voter shares)
TOTAL………….100% 52.5% 47.1%

TRUE VOTE MODEL

The model is based on 2012 returning voters and 2014 vote share percentages. In the Base Case scenario, Burke had 52.2%  and won by 107,000 votes.

1) Barrett had a 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall
2) 93% turnout of 2012 living voters in 2014
3) Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
4) Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
5) Burke had 54% of new voters.

The Sensitivity analysis shows Burke’s total vote shares and margins for alternative scenarios of vote share and turnout of 2012 voters.

CUMULATIVE VOTE SHARES

Counties
In 2014, there was a significant 0.24 correlation between Walker’s  county votes and turnout (it was 0.28 in the 2012 recall). This measure indicates that as turnout increased, so did Walker’s vote share. But this is counter-intuitive; strong turnout always favors the Democrats. Burke’s total vote dropped by 61,500 (2.57%) from the 25% mark.

County size
Burke’s share fell by 4.8% in the largest 15 counties, but increased by 2.3% in the middle 15 and 0.67% in the 15 smallest. This is a strong indicator of fraud in the biggest counties.

Democratic strongholds
Burke’s share fell by 6.5% in counties in which she was leading the 25% vote mark. This is an indicator of fraud in Democratic strongholds.

Correlation
There was a -0.37 statistical correlation between the change in Burke’s county shares and county vote size. This is another indicator of fraud in the biggest counties (primarily Milwaukee).

Democratic Vote Share Trend - 15 counties
Election.....Votes..25%...50%..100% Change
Average.......1532 56.1% 53.8% 50.1% 5.9%
2008 Obama……..1853 62.4% 60.7% 57.1% 5.3%
2010 Feingold……1375 54.7% 52.5% 48.7% 6.0%
2010 Barrett……..1372 55.0% 51.9% 48.2% 6.8%
2012 Barrett……..1551 54.2% 52.1% 48.1% 6.1%
2014 Burke……….1511 53.0% 52.2% 48.5% 5.5%
Vote change…..Vote….25%…50%..75%..100%
Votes…………..-61.49 1,174 1,158 1,133 1,113
% Change…………….-2.57 -0.67 -1.07 -0.84
…………..Vote..25%..50%..75%..100%….Correl..% Change
Total……2,385 49.2 48.5 47.5 46.6.. -0.37… -2.6
Top 15…1,573 53.4 52.0 50.2 48.6.. -0.23… -4.8
Mid 15……242 41.0 41.2 41.6 43.1…..   0.01…  2.1
Low 15……..73 43.5 42.6 42.7 43.7….. 0.11…. 0.2
Dem>50% 935 67.3 65.2 62.7 60.8.. -0.35… -6.5

HISTORICAL PRESIDENTIAL EXIT POLLS

A comprehensive analysis of 274 unadjusted 1988-2008 state and 6 national presidential exit polls proved systemic election fraud. The Democrats led the recorded vote by 48-46%, but led the exit polls by a whopping 52-42%. The True Vote Model matched and therefore confirmed the exit polls.

The Adjusted 2004 National Exit Poll indicated that 52.6 million of 2004 voters (43%) were returning Bush 2000 voters and just 37% were returning Gore voters. But this is impossible since Bush had just 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore 5 million phantom Bush voters were required in order to match the recorded vote. Recall that Gore won the popular recorded vote by 540,000 (he actually won by 3-5 million True Votes). The exit pollsters switched 471 (6.7%) of Kerry’s 7,064 responders (of 13660 polled) to Bush.

The Adjusted 2008 National Exit Poll indicated that 60 million (46%) of the 131 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush 2004 voters and just 49 million (37%) were returning Kerry voters. In other words, in order to match the 2008 recorded vote, there had to be 12 million more returning Bush 2004 voters than returning Kerry voters. But Bush won the bogus 2004 recorded vote by just 3 million! Kerry won the True Vote by close to 10 million. He won the unadjusted state and national exit polls by 6 million. Therefore Obama won the True Vote in 2008 by 22 million, not the 9.5 million recorded.

The pattern is clear. It’s not even close.

An excellent paper from mathematician Kathy Dopp:
http://electionmathematics.org/em-audits/US/2014/USElections2014.pdf

TRACK RECORD
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E#gid=4

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdGN3WEZNTUFaR0tfOHVXTzA1VGRsdHc#gid=0
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

2008
Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean) http://www.richardcharnin.com/2008ElectionModel.htm
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot) https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote Model: 55.2%, 380 EV

 

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis