2012 Election Model Post-Mortem: Exactly right at 332 EV
But Obama did much better than that, just as he did much better than his 365 EV in 2008.
The recorded result was confirmed in the model.
Obama had 332 electoral votes based on the recorded vote total – not the True Vote.
Obama was able once again to overcome the built-in FRAUD FACTOR, which would be reflected by a red-shift in the UNADJUSTED EXIT POLLS. But to paraphrase what Alec Baldwin told the real-estate salesmen in the famous opening scene of the classic film Glen Garry Glen Ross:
“These are the unadjusted exit polls. They are gold – but you don’t get them. They’re for NEP only”.
The red-shift did not go away. We do not have the unadjusted exit polls. The True Vote Model forecast the TRUE VOTE as 55-45%. I also projected the RECORDED VOTE based on the pre-election polls from which the Monte Carlo Simulation Model derived Obama’s 99% win probability. No rocket science – and that is why I got it EXACTLY right at 332 EV (the actual SNAPSHOT).
The EXPECTED THEORETICAL 321 EV was based on the summation formula:
EV= ∑ P(I)* EV (I), for I =1,51 STATES. The probability P(I) of winning the state was based on the 2-party poll projection.
Obama had 51.9% of the two-party recorded vote. To match the recorded vote, Romney needed 17% of returning Obama 2008 voters and 50% of new voters. Romney needed a 2% turnout rate advantage of returning McCain voters over Obama voters. These are implausible vote shares, indicating that Obama did much better than the recorded vote. He won the True Vote by 56-44% (two-party).
Scroll down to row 375 in this spread sheet to view the sensitivity analysis:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=25
The pollsters anticipate the red-shift without saying so. They use the Likely Voter Cutoff Model which reduces Democratic turnout in their LV polls. And this is very important: they use PREVIOUS election BOGUS RECORDED votes as part of their strategy when they design their sample – and we KNOW that the previous recorded votes were inflated for the Republican.
THE POLLSTERS GOT THE RECORDED VOTE RIGHT; THEY USUALLY DO. BUT THEY ALWAYS AVOID DOING AN ANALYSIS TO DETERMINE THE TRUE VOTE. THE POLLSTERS ARE PAID TO PREDICT THE RECORDED VOTE – NOT THE TRUE VOTE.
Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model
2004 Election Model (2-party shares)
Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV
2008 Election Model
Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV
2012 Election Model
Obama Projected: 51.6% (2-party), 332 EV snapshot; 320.7 expected; 321.6 mean
Adjusted National Exit Poll (recorded): 51.0-47.2%, 332 EV
True Vote Model 56.1%, 391 EV (snapshot); 385 EV (expected)
Unadjusted State Exit Polls: not released
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: not released
davidgmills
November 7, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Just the male/female exit poll should be enough to dispel any notion that the recorded vote was correct. Just curious, what did the male/female exit poll predict as the true vote?
Richard Charnin
November 7, 2012 at 12:44 pm
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main
The Final was forced to match the recorded vote. But you know that.
What we really need is the cross tab “How did you vote in 2008″?
But they won’t give you that -because it would expose the fraud.
davidgmills
November 7, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Do they adjust male/female ratios and voting percentages to match the recorded vote as well? See:
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_racenav
I am curious because there is a Huff Po blog that has these numbers differently:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/07/gender-gap-2012-election-obama_n_2086004.html
The numbers from CNN for women have come down from what they were reported earlier, if this blog post was correct when written.
Richard Charnin
November 8, 2012 at 8:58 am
They adjust every cross tab.
davidgmills
November 9, 2012 at 10:14 pm
How can they call it an exit poll if they just get to fudge any numbers they want? After they have their 26535 respondents and their given answers how do they change these answers and still call it an exit poll? But really, how could they change gender? If 54% of the respondents are women do they just get to decide it was 53%? And if 56% of the women said they voted for Obama do they get to say only 55% voted for him?
Richard Charnin
December 7, 2012 at 1:34 am
Changing the percentage from 53/47% to 54/46% has virtually no effect on the total vote share; they had to change the Romney and Obama vote shares of males and females.