This is a compendium of links to all of my posts from 2003 to the present.
The focus has been on election fraud and JFK analysis probability models. Presidential, congressional and senate election analyses are based on pre-election forecasting models, post-election exit polls and True Vote models. In addition, there are many links to important articles by influential researchers.
In the past two years, my focus has been on mathematically proving a JFK conspiracy based on the number of JFK-related unnatural witness deaths. See Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy.
The corporate media, academia, political scientists and politicians never discuss the evidence that proves beyond any doubt that the JFK assassination was a conspiracy and election fraud is systemic.
The number of unnatural JFK-related witness deaths far exceeded the expected number based on mortality rates. The probability of 78 officially ruled unnatural deaths in a group of 1400 JFK-related witnesses over the 15 year period from 1964-78 is ZERO (less than 1 in one trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion). These are my JFK blog posts: https://docs.google.com/document/d/15vokd2I6Zd32OWUvkQ29furIWkOPWZ9Pwms3Wy4Sc6E/pub
I have written two books on Election Fraud:
Matrix of Deceit:Forcing Pre-Election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts and Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll.
It is standard policy to force national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote – even if it requires an impossible turnout of prior election voters and implausible vote shares.
The recorded vote is always different from the True Vote. Voting machine “glitches” are not due to machine failure; that is media misinformation. It’s the fault of humans who program the machines to switch and drop votes.
In the 1968-2008 Presidential elections, the Republicans won the recorded vote by a 49-45% margin. The Recursive National True Vote Model indicates that the Democrats actually won by 49-45%.
In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the 274 unadjusted state exit polls (total 375,000 respondents) by 51.6-41.8%. They won the six National Exit Polls (total 90,000 respondents) by the identical margin. But the recorded vote was just 48-46%. The deviations were too large to attribute to faulty polling or differential response.
The 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Polls Database is based on the Roper archives.
There were 274 state presidential exit polls from 1988-2008,of which 135 exceeded the margin of error with 131 red-shifting to the Republican. Given the 95% confidence level, approximately 14 (5% of 274) exit polls should have exceeded the margin of error. The probability of this occurrence is 1 in one trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion.
In July 2004 I began posting weekly Election Model projections based on the latest state and national polls. The model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes with 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls.
The 2004 Election Simulation Model illustrates pre and post-election simulation forecasting and analysis.
The Final 2004 National Exit Poll was mathematically impossible since it indicated that 43% of 2004 voters (52.6 million) were returning Bush 2000 voters. But in 2000, Bush had just 50.5 million recorded votes. Approximately 48 million were alive in 2004. Assuming 46 million voted, the adjusted NEP overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 6-7 million. To determine the True Vote, the post-election True Vote Model calculated a feasible turnout of living 2000 voters based on total votes cast (recorded plus net uncounted), 1.25% annual mortality and 98% Gore/Bush voter turnout. In this base case scenario, Kerry had 53.5%and won by 67-57 million with 379 EV.
The Final 2006 National Exit Poll indicated that the Democrats had a 52-46% vote share. The 120 pre-election Generic forecast trend model projected that the Democrats would capture 56.43% of the vote and was within 0.06% of the unadjusted national exit poll. The Democratic landslide was denied.
A comprehensive analysis of the 2008 Primaries showed that Obama did significantly better than the recorded results indicate.
The 2008 Election Model projection exactly matched Obama’s 365 electoral votes and was within 0.2% of his 52.9% share and 9.5 million margin. But the forecast was based on final likely voter (LV) polls that had Obama leading by 7%. Registered voter (RV) polls had him leading by 13% – before undecided voters were allocated. The landslide was denied.
The Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote by assuming there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. Just as in 2004, the Final implied that more Bush 2004 voters than were still living returned to vote in 2008. Bush won the 2004 recorded vote by just 3.0 million. Kerry won the state exit polls by 52-47%. Assuming Kerry’s exit poll margin, one would expect approximately 7 million more returning Kerry voters than Bush voters – a 19 million difference from the Final 2008 NEP.
The Final also indicated that there were 5 million returning third party voters. But just 1.2 million third-party votes were recorded in 2004. Either the Final NEP or the recorded third-party vote share was wrong.
The True Vote Model determined that Obama won by over 22 million votes with a 58% share and had 420 EV. His 58% True vote share was within 0.1% of the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents).
The CNN 2008 Election site shows Obama winning by 66.88-58.43 million votes, an 8.55 million margin. The final recorded vote was 69.50-59.95, a 9.55 million margin, exactly 1.0 million higher. Why has CNN not updated the 2008 Election website to include the final 4.15 million votes of which Obama had 63.1%?
The 2010 Midterms Model indicated that a number of House, Senate and Governor elections were likely stolen.
The 2012 Election Model included a True Vote Model projection as well as the polling-based projection. The pre-election polling model exactly matched Obama’s 332 recorded electoral votes and was within 0.5% of his 51.0% share. But as in 2008, the polling-based forecast was too conservative since it was based on final likely voter (LV) polls which always underestimate the Democratic True share. Once again, an Obama landslide was denied.The True Vote Model indicated that he would have had 55% in a fraud-free election.