Richard Charnin
Feb.2, 2016
Governor exit polls were forced to match the recorded vote in 2014 – as is always the case. But let’s take a closer look at the RACE demographic. Minority voters share of the total vote is shown, but corresponding vote shares are missing. When estimated vote shares are included, the Democrat is usually the winner.
GOP shares of white voters appear to be inflated. So the results are conservative: The Democrats most likely did better than indicated in the tables.
The Sensitivity analysis tables show the effect of Democratic shares of white voters on the total Democratic share.
Based on True Vote, Cumulative Vote and Voter Turnout models:
IL: Quinn did better than 35% of whites.
FL: Crist did better than 37% of whites and 85% of blacks.
ME: Michaud did better than 43% of whites.
WI: Burke did better than 42% of whites and 90% of blacks.
MI: Schauer did better than 40% of whites and 89% of blacks.
KS: Davis did better than 46% of Latinos
| IL | 1,263 | ||||||
| Pct | Quinn | Rauner | Grimm | Quinn | Rauner | Grimm | |
| White | 75% | 35% | 61% | 4% | 37% | 59% | 4% |
| Black | 16% | 93% | 7% | 1% | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| Latino | 6% | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Asian | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Other | 1% | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 41.1% | 46.9% | 3.2% | 50.0% | 46.0% | 4.1% |
| Recorded | 45.6% | 50.1% | 3.3% | ||||
| FL | 2,806 | ||||||
| Pct | Crist | Scott | Wyllie | Crist | Scott | Wyllie | |
| White | 69% | 37% | 58% | 4% | 39% | 57% | 4% |
| Black | 14% | 85% | 12% | 3% | 94% | 4% | 2% |
| Latino | 13% | 58% | 38% | 3% | 58% | 38% | 4% |
| Asian | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Other | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 45.0% | 46.6% | 3.6% | 50.8% | 45.2% | 4.0% |
| Recorded | 47.1% | 48.2% | 4.8% | ||||
| ME | 1,006 | ||||||
| Pct | Michaud | LePage | Cutler | Michaud | LePage | Cutler | |
| White | 97% | 43% | 49% | 9% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Black | 1% | – | – | – | 95% | 3% | 2% |
| Latino | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Asian | – | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Other | – | – | – | – | 80% | 10% | 10% |
| Total | 100% | 41.7% | 47.5% | 8.7% | 47.2% | 44.8% | 8.0% |
| Recorded | 43.4% | 48.2% | 8.4% | ||||
| WI | 2,316 | ||||||
| Burke | Walker | Other | Burke | Walker | Other | ||
| White | 88% | 42% | 56% | 2% | 46% | 53% | 1% |
| Black | 6% | 90% | 10% | 95% | 4% | 1% | |
| Latino | 3% | – | – | 80% | 19% | 1% | |
| Asian | 1% | – | – | 80% | 19% | 1% | |
| Other | 2% | – | – | 80% | 19% | 1% | |
| Total | 100% | 42.4% | 49.9% | 0.9% | 51.0% | 48.0 | 1.0% |
| Recorded | 46.6% | 52.3% | 0.9% | ||||
| MI | 2,232 | ||||||
| Schauer | Snyder | Other | Schauer | Snyder | Other | ||
| White | 79% | 40% | 59% | 1% | 41% | 58% | 1% |
| Black | 14% | 89% | 9% | 2% | 95% | 3% | 2% |
| Latino | 3% | – | – | – | 80% | 20% | 0% |
| Asian | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 20% | 0% |
| Other | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 20% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 44.1% | 47.9% | 51.3% | 47.6% | 1.0% | |
| Recorded | 47.1% | 51.0% | 1.9% | ||||
| KS | 2,009 | ||||||
| Pct | Davis | Brownback | Umbehr | Davis | Brownback | Umbehr | |
| White | 88% | 46% | 51% | 3% | 46% | 51% | 3% |
| Black | 3% | – | – | – | 93% | 4% | 3% |
| Latino | 6% | 46% | 47% | 7% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Asian | 1% | – | – | – | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Other | 2% | – | – | – | 80% | 13% | 7% |
| Total | 100% | 43.2% | 47.7% | 3.1% | 48.5% | 48.1% | 3.4% |
| Recorded | 46.2% | 50.7% | 3.2% |
Sensitivity Analysis: Effect of Democratic shares of white voters on total vote.
| FL | Crist | % Whites | ||
| Pct | 37% | 39% | 41% | |
| White | 69% | 25.5% | 26.9% | 28.3% |
| Black | 14% | 13.2% | 13.2% | 13.2% |
| Latin | 13% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.5% |
| Asian | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Other | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Total | 100% | 49.4% | 50.8% | 52.2% |
| IL | Quinn | % Whites | ||
| Pct | 35% | 37% | 39% | |
| White | 75% | 26.3% | 27.8% | 29.3% |
| Black | 16% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Latin | 6% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% |
| Asian | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Other | 1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Total | 100% | 48.5% | 50.0% | 51.5% |
| WI | Burke | % Whites | ||
| Pct | 42% | 44% | 46% | |
| White | 88% | 37.0% | 38.7% | 40.5% |
| Black | 6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.7% |
| Latin | 3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Asian | 1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Other | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Total | 100% | 47.5% | 49.2% | 51.0% |
| KS | Davis | % Whites | ||
| Pct | 46% | 48% | 50% | |
| White | 88% | 40.5% | 42.2% | 44.0% |
| Black | 3% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| Latin | 6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Asian | 1% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Other | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Total | 100% | 48.6% | 50.3% | 52.1% |
| ME | Michaud | % Whites | ||
| Pct | 43% | 46% | 49% | |
| White | 97% | 41.7% | 44.6% | 47.5% |
| Black | 1% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| Latin | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Asian | – | – | – | – |
| Other | – | – | – | – |
| Total | 100% | 44.3% | 47.2% | 50.1% |
| MI | Schauer | % Whites | ||
| Pct | 40% | 42% | 44% | |
| White | 79% | 31.6% | 33.2% | 34.8% |
| Black | 14% | 13.3% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Latin | 3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| Asian | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Other | 2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Total | 100% | 50.5% | 52.1% | 53.7% |
Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004
