Category Archives: 2004 Election

A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

A Simple Arithmetic Proof that Bush Stole the 2004 Election

Richard Charnin
Sept.5, 2015
Updated: Sept.17, 2015

Look inside the books: Reclaiming Science: The JFK Conspiracy 
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Compendium of Links to all of my posts
Cumulative Vote Share Spreadsheet Reference
Spreadsheet Links: JFK Calc, Unadjusted Exit Polls, True Vote Models, Cumulative Vote shares

1. The 2000 election
There were 105.458 million recorded votes.
Gore won by 548,000 recorded votes. But his True Vote margin was much higher.
Over 5 million votes were uncounted - at least 70% for Gore.
The election was stolen.

Recorded Votes Share
Bush 50.456 47.84%
Gore 51.004 48.36%
Other 3.998 3.79%

2. Gore won the Unadjusted National Exit Poll.
He won by an equivalent 2.3 million vote margin.
Unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll

Sample Gore Bush Other
13,108 6,359 6,065 684
Share 48.51% 46.27% 5.22%
Votes 51.16 48.80 5.82.

3. Gore won the Unadjusted State Exit Polls (50.7-45.6%), a 5.5 million vote margin.
Voted Turnout Mix....Gore..Bush..Other
Clinton 48,763 44%.....87%...10%...3%
Dole....35,464 32%......7%...91%...2%
Other....8,866 8%......23%...65%..12%
DNV.....17,732 16%.....52%...43%...5%
Share..110,825.......50.7% 45.6% 3.7%
Votes..110,825......56,166 50,536 4,123

2000 True Vote Model matched the unadjusted exit polls.

4. 2000 Voter mortality (1.25% annual rate)
Approximately 5 million Election 2000 voters died prior to 2004.
Only 100 million were alive in 2004.

Election 2000 voters ALIVE in 2004:
Bush 47.93
Gore 48.45
Other 3.80
Total 100.19

5. The 2004 Election
There were 122.294 million recorded votes.
Bush won by a bogus 3.0 million vote "mandate".

Bush 62.044 50.73%
Kerry 59.012 48.25%
Other. 1.238 1.01%

6. 2000 Election Voter Turnout in 2004
Estimate 98% of LIVING 2000 Election voters turned out in 2004.
Therefore, the MAXIMUM number of returning 2000 voters was:
Bush 46.97 million (38.41% of 122.3 million 2004 voters)
Gore 47.48 (38.83%)
Other 3.72 (3.04%)
Total 98.18 (80.28%)
DNV 24.11 (19.72% did not vote in 2000)
Total 122.29 100.0%

7. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll (13,660 Respondents)
Kerry won by an equivalent 6 million votes.

Respondents Share...Equiv. vote
Kerry 7,064 51.71% 63.24 million
Bush. 6,414 46.95% 57.42
Other...182. 1.33% 1.63

8. Proof of fraud: IMPOSSIBLE ADJUSTED 2004 National Exit poll
The NEP required 7 million more returning Bush than Gore voters in order to MATCH the recorded vote. It indicated that 52.59 million Bush 2000 voters turned out in 2004 (43% of the vote). But Bush only had 50.46 million votes in 2000. APPROXIMATELY 2 MILLION DIED AND 1 MILLION DID NOT RETURN IN 2004. Therefore there had to be at least 5 MILLION (52.6-47.5) PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

An IMPOSSIBLE adjustment had to be made to the National Exit poll in order to MATCH the recorded vote, therefore the RECORDED VOTE must also have been IMPOSSIBLE. THE 2000 and 2004 ELECTIONS WERE STOLEN.
2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry.Bush..Other....Alive..Turnout
DNV. 20,790 17%....54%...44%....2% ------ ------
Gore 45,249 37%....90%...10%....0%.....48,454...93%
Bush 52,586 43%.....9%...91%....0%.....47,933. 110%
Other 3,669 3%.....64%...14%...22%......3,798...97%
Total.122,294.....48.3%..50.7% 1.0%....100,185..94%
Votes............59,031..62,040 1,223

9. Unadjusted 2004 National Exit Poll
Kerry had 51.7% in the Unadjusted National Exit Poll. Given the 12:28am exit poll shares, matching to 51.7% required an implausible 1.4 million more returning Bush than Gore voters. But Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 5 million votes.

2000 Turnout Mix.....Kerry...Bush..Other
DNV. 23,116 18.4%....57%.....41%...2%
Gore 48,248 38.4%....91%......8%...1%
Bush 49,670 39.5%....10%.....90%...0%
Other. 4,703 3.7%....64%.....17%...19%
Total 125,737......51.7% 46.8% 1.5%
Cast. 125,737......65,070 58,829 1,838

2004 True Vote Model
10- Kerry won by 10.6 million votes assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the unadjusted state exit polls aggregate.

2000 Turnout Mix....Kerry..Bush...Other
DNV. 22,381 17.8%...57%....41%....2%
Gore 52,055 41.4%...91%.....8%....1%
Bush 47,403 37.7%...10%....90%....0%
Other 3,898 3.1%....64%....17%...19%
Total 125,737......53.6% 45.1% 1.3%
Cast. 125,737......67,362 56,666 1,709
Recd. 122,294......59,028 62,041 1,224
Diff...3,443.......8,334 -5,375 485

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Posted by on September 5, 2015 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election


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A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Richard Charnin
July 27, 2015
Updated: Oct.5, 2015
Links to website and blog posts
Look inside the books:
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. The probability of winning each state is required in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.

Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)

The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:
2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares
2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares
(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:
2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes
2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes
2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes
2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:
1-Theoretical EV: the product sum of state win probabilities and corresponding EVs.
2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.
3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. In the True Vote Model he had 55.6% and 391 Electoral votes.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.



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Summary: 2004-2012 Election Forecast; 1968-2012 True Vote Model

Summary: 2004-2012 Election Forecast; 1968-2012 True Vote Model

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2014

1988-2008 State and National Presidential True Vote Model

1968-2012 National Presidential True Vote Model

1988 (24 unadjusted state exit polls)
Recorded Vote: Bush 53.4-Dukakis 45.7%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Dukakis 49.8-49.1%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Dukakis 51.6-47.3%
True Vote Model: Dukakis 50.2-48.8%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 43.0-Bush 37.4%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton: 46.3-33.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton: 47.6-31.7%
True Vote Model: Clinton: 51.1-30.4%

Recorded Vote: Clinton 49.2-Dole 40.8%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Clinton 52.2-37.5%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Clinton 52.7-37.0%
True Vote Model: Clinton 53.6-36.5%

Recorded Vote: Gore 48.4-Bush 47.9%
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Gore 48.5-46.3%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Gore 50.8-44.4%
True Vote Model: Gore 51.5-44.7%

Recorded Vote: Bush 50.7-Kerry 48.3%, 255 EV
Election Forecast Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Kerry 51.7-47.0%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Kerry 51.1-47.6%, 337 EV
True Vote Model: Kerry 53.6-45.1%, 364 EV

Recorded Vote: Obama 52.9-McCain 45.6%, 365 EV
Election Forecast Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean)
Unadjusted National Exit Poll: Obama 61.0-37.2%
Unadjusted State Exit Polls aggregate: Obama 58.0-40.5%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: Obama 58.0-40.4%, 420 EV

Recorded vote: Obama 51.0-Romney 47.2%, 332 EV
Election Forecast (2-party): Obama 51.6-Romney 48.4%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
True Vote Model: Obama 55.2%, 380 EV

Unadjusted National Exit Poll unavailable
Unadjusted State Exit polls unavailable (19 states not polled)

The Ultimate Smoking Gun that proves Systemic Election Fraud:

Presidential Summary

Election.. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Average
Recorded Vote
Democrat.. 45.7 43.0 49.3 48.4 48.3 52.9 47.9
Republican 53.4 37.4 40.7 47.9 50.7 45.6 46.0

Unadjusted Aggregate State Exit Polls (weighted by voting population)
Democrat.. 50.3 47.6 52.6 50.8 51.1 58.0 51.7
Republican 48.7 31.7 37.1 44.4 47.5 40.3 41.6

Unadjusted National Exit Poll
Democrat.. 49.8 46.3 52.6 48.5 51.7 61.0 51.7
Republican 49.2 33.5 37.1 46.3 47.0 37.2 41.7

1988-2008 Red-shift Summary (274 exit polls)
The following table lists the
a) Number of states in which the exit poll red-shifted to the Republican,
b) Number of states which red-shifted beyond the margin of error,
c) Probability of n states red-shifting beyond the MoE,
d) Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) Democratic recorded share,
f) Difference between Democratic exit poll and recorded share.

Year RS.. n>MoE Probability..Exit Rec'd Diff
1988 21.. 12... 2.5E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may have won
1992 45.. 27... 1.1E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton landslide
1996 44.. 19... 2.5E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton landslide
2000 34.. 17... 4.9E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore win stolen
2004 42.. 23... 3.5E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry landslide stolen
2008 46.. 37... 2.4E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama landslide denied

Total 232 135... 3.7E-116..... 51.7 47.9 3.8
* 274 exit polls (24 in 1988, 50 in each of the 1992-2008 elections)


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The Election Fraud Quiz II

The Election Fraud Quiz II

Richard Charnin
Sept. 23, 2013

1 The exit poll margin of error is not a function of
a) sample-size, b) 2-party poll share, c) national population size

2 In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the recorded vote 48-46%. They won both the average unadjusted state and national exit polls by
a) 50-46%, b) 51-45%, c) 52-41%

3 In 2004 the percentage of living Bush 2000 voters required to match the recorded vote was
a) 96%, b) 98%, c) 110%

4 In 2000 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 2, b) 4, c) 6 million

5 In 2008, Obama won by 52.9-45.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by
a) 53-45%, b) 58-40%, c) 61-37%

6 In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis by 7 million votes (53.4-45.6%). Dukakis won the National Exit Poll by
a) 49.9-49.1%, b) 50.7-48.3%, c) 51.0-48.0%

7 In 1988 the approximate number of uncounted votes was
a) 6, b) 9, c) 11 million

8 Of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008, 135 exceeded the margin of error (14 expected). How many moved in favor of the GOP?
a) 85, b) 105, c) 131

9 Gore won the popular vote in 2000. In 2004, returning Nader voters were 5-1 for Kerry, new voters 3-2 for Kerry. In order for Bush to win, he must have won
a) 30% of returning Gore voters, b) 90% of returning Bush voters, c) both (a) and (b).

10 In 2008 Obama won 58% of the state exit poll aggregate. Given it was his True Vote, he had how many Electoral Votes?
a) 365, b) 395, c) 420

11 What is the probability that 131 of 274 state exit polls from 1988-2008 would red-shift to the GOP beyond the margin of error?
a) 1 in 1 million, b) 1 in 1 trillion, c) 1 in 1 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion (E-116)

12 In 2000 12 states flipped from Gore in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote. Gore would have won the election if he had won
a) 1, b) 2, c) 3 of the 12 states

13 In 1988 24 states had exit polls (2/3 of the total recorded vote). Dukakis won the state polls by
a) 50-49%, b) 51-48%, c) 52-47%

14 Exit polls are always adjusted to conform to the recorded vote. It is standard operating procedure and
a) reported by the corporate media, b) noted by academia, c) statistical proof of election fraud

15 Bush had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died and 1 million did not return to vote in 2004. Therefore, there could not have been more than 47 million returning Bush 2000 voters. But the 2004 National Exit Poll indicated 52.6 million returning Bush voters. This is proof that
a) Bush stole the 2004 election, b) it was a clerical error, c) 6 million Bush votes were not recorded in 2000.

16 In 2000 Gore won the popular vote by 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). He won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 50.8-44.4% and the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%, indicating that
a) the state exit poll aggregate was outside the margin of error, b) the National poll was within the margin of error, c) the election was stolen, d) all

17 Corporate media websites show that Bush won the 2004 National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) by 51-48%, matching the recorded vote. But the unadjusted National Exit Poll indicates that Kerry won by 51.0-47.6% (7064-6414 respondents). The discrepancy is proof that
a) the poll was adjusted to match the recorded vote, b) Bush stole the election, c) both, d) neither

18 The pervasive difference between the exit polls and the recorded vote in every election is due to
a) inexperienced pollsters, b) Republican reluctance to be polled, c) systemic election fraud

19 In 1992 Clinton defeated Bush by 43-37.5% (Perot had 19.5%). Clinton won the unadjusted National exit poll by 48-32-20%. Bush needed 119% turnout of returning 1988 Bush voters to match the recorded vote. These anomalies were due to
a) bad polling, b) Bush voters refused to be polled, c) Bush tried but failed to steal the election.

20 Sensitivity analysis is a useful tool for gauging the effects of
a) various turnout assumptions, b) various vote share assumptions, c) both, d) neither

21 Monte Carlo simulation is a useful tool for
a) predicting the recorded vote, b) electoral vote, c) probability of winning the electoral vote.

22 The expected electoral vote is based on
a) state win probabilities, b) state electoral votes, c) both, d) neither

23 To match the recorded vote, which exit poll crosstab weights and shares are adjusted?
a) when decided, b) how voted in prior election, c) party ID, d) gender, e) education, f) income, g) all

24 In 2004 Bush’s final pre-election approval rating was 48%, but it was 53% in the adjusted National Exit Poll. The discrepancy was due to
a) late change in approval, b) different polls, c) forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

25 The True Vote Model is designed to calculate the fraud-free vote. The TVM utilizes final exit poll shares but estimates returning voters based on the prior election
a) recorded vote, b) votes cast, c) unadjusted exit poll, d) true vote, e) all

1c 2c 3c 4c 5c 6a 7c 8c 9c 10c 11c 12a 13c 14c 15a 16c 17c 18c 19c 20c 21c 22c 23g 24c 25e


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Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Fixing the Exit Polls to Match the Policy

Richard Charnin
April 5, 2012

The pattern should be clear by now. The exit pollsters working for the mainstream media adjust actual exit poll data to match official recorded votes. It happens in every election. And it will again in 2012. It’s like fixing the intelligence to match the policy in Iraq.

But very few are aware of the perennial scam. The media won’t tell you. They would only be indicting themselves. The only way to know is to do the research, collect the data, build the models and crunch the numbers. And then post the analysis on the Net, hoping that at least one well-known personality will read it. And then shake things up by discussing Election Fraud the next time they are interviewed in the mainstream media.

This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Let’s start with the 2000 election which the Supreme Court handed to Bush. Gore won the national recorded vote by 540,000 (48.4-47.9%). Most people are aware of that. But how many know that he won the unadjusted state exit polls (56,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.5%? That’s a 7 million vote margin. He won the unadjusted 2000 National Exit Poll (13,108 respondents) by 48.5-46.3%. The National Exit Poll is a subset of the state exit polls.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million (50.7-48.3%). The National Exit Poll (13660 respondents) was adjusted to match the recorded vote. But how many realize that Kerry won the unadjusted NEP (the same 13660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%? That’s a 6 million vote margin. Kerry won the unadjusted aggregate of the state exit polls (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%.

The Evaluation of Edison-Mitofsky Election System 2004 report was released in Jan. 2005. It was written in response to a number of independent online researchers whose analysis of preliminary state exit polls (as well as anecdotal data) strongly suggested that the election was likely stolen. Media pundits claimed the Report proved Bush won the election fairly – but they ignored the factual data provided in the report. Rather, they parroted the exit pollster’s hypothesis (later dubbed the “reluctant Bush responder”) that the massive 6.5% exit poll discrepancy was due to the differential response rate of voters who were polled: they claimed that 56 Democrats responded for every 50 Republicans. The exit pollsters admitted it was just a theory; they had no evidence for it. In fact, the precinct data showed just the opposite: response rates were higher in partisan Bush precincts. US Count Votes did a comprehensive analysis of the 2004 exit poll discrepancies which disproved the exit pollster’s reluctant Bush responder hypothesis.

But now we have the proof: 1988-2008 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Database

Kerry’s 51.7% unadjusted National Exit Poll share appears to be understating his True Vote since it implies that Bush won in 2000 by 48.4-47.0% – but the exit polls show that Gore led by 50.8-44.5%. How could that be? Surely, disgruntled Gore voters were more likely to return in 2004 than Bush voters. Bush had a 48% approval rating.

Click this to view the overwhelming evidence confirming a Kerry landslide.

Assuming the 2000 unadjusted exit polls were essentially correct and voters returned proportionately in 2004, then Kerry had at least 53.6% and won by more than 10 million votes, matching the True Vote Model (TVM). Why the 2% TVM deviation from the exit polls? Could it be that exit poll precincts were at least partially weighted to the 2000 recorded vote? In other words, was the sample biased in favor of Bush?

Consider the 12:22am National Exit Poll timeline – before the vote shares were inflated for Bush. It shows a) a net Kerry gain of approximately 4.0 million from 22 million new voters, b) a 1.0 million net gain from returning Bush and Gore voter defections, c) a 1.5 million net gain in returning Nader voters, and d) a 540,000 gain based on Gore’s recorded margin. That’s a total net Kerry gain of 7.0 million votes. But it was surely higher than that. If we assume conservatively that Gore won by 4 million (based on the 2000 unadjusted state exit poll aggregate), then Kerry had 53.6% and a 10.5 million vote landslide – matching the True Vote Model.

So how did Kerry lose?

How come the published Final National Exit poll indicates that Bush was a 50.7-48.3% winner? The pollsters forced the NEP to match the recorded vote by implying there were 6 million more returning Bush 2000 voters than were still alive in 2004 – an impossible 110% turnout. And even that sleight-of-hand was not enough; they had to inflate Bush’s 12:22am shares of returning and new voters to complete the match in the Final NEP.

An even greater miracle occurred in 1992 for Poppy Bush. In that election, 119% of living Bush 1988 voters turned out. But even that was not enough to steal it from Clinton.

Let’s move on to 2008. Obama won the recorded vote by 52.9-45.6% (9.5 million votes). Of course, that is also what the adjusted National Exit Poll indicates. But it’s not how the exit poll respondents said they voted.

According to the unadjusted NEP (17,836 respondents), Obama won by 61.0-37.2%. He had 58% in unadjusted State Exit Poll aggregate (83,000 respondents). It was a 22 million vote landslide. In order to believe the recorded vote, you must believe that the state and national exit polls (and the True Vote Model) were off by 5 to 8 times the margin of error.

Why the massive discrepancies from the recorded vote shares? Once again, the exit pollsters had to force the unadjusted exit polls (state and national) to match the recorded vote. They had to have 60 million returning Bush and 48 million returning Kerry voters. Just like the 2004 Final NEP, it was not just implausible and counter-intuitive, it was mathematically impossible. The pollsters needed a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters in 2008. But Bush won the (bogus) recorded vote by just 3 million – and Kerry won the True Vote by 10 million.

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections there were 274 state exit polls, of which 226 red-shifted from the poll to the vote for the Republican and 48 shifted to the Democrat. If the elections were fair, approximately 137 would shift to the Democrat and 137 to the Republican. The probability that 226 would red-shift to the Republican is:
P = 3.7E-31 (zero)

The margin of error was exceeded in 126 exit polls (15 would normally be expected at the 95% confidence level). The probability P is:
P = 8E-75 (zero)

The margin of error was exceeded in 123 of the 274 exit polls in favor of GOP and just 3 for the Democrat. The probability P is:
P= 5E-106 (zero)

The following table summarizes a) the number of state elections which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote, b) the number of states (n) in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican, c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE, d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share, e) the Democratic recorded share, f) the deviation between the exit poll and recorded vote.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 20.. 11… 3.5E-20….. 50.3 45.7 4.6
1992 44.. 26… 2.4E-25….. 47.6 43.0 4.6
1996 43.. 16… 4.9E-13….. 52.6 49.3 3.3
2000 34.. 12… 8.7E-09….. 50.8 48.4 2.4
2004 40.. 22… 3.5E-20….. 51.1 48.3 2.8
2008 45.. 36… 2.4E-37….. 58.0 52.9 5.1

Total 226. 123…. 5E-106… 51.88 48.06 3.82

Simulation forecast trends are displayed in the following graphs:

State aggregate poll trend
Electoral vote and win probability
Electoral and popular vote
Undecided voter allocation impact on electoral vote and win probability
National poll trend
Monte Carlo Simulation
Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Histogram

Election Model Forecast; Post-election True Vote Model

2004 (2-party vote shares)
Model: Kerry 51.8%, 337 EV (snapshot)
State exit poll aggregate: 51.7%, 337 EV
Recorded Vote: 48.3%, 255 EV
True Vote Model: 53.6%, 364 EV

Model: Obama 53.1%, 365.3 EV (simulation mean);
Recorded: 52.9%, 365 EV
State exit poll aggregate: 58.0%, 420 EV
True Vote Model: 58.0%, 420 EV

2012 (2-party state exit poll aggregate shares)
Model: Obama 51.6%, 332 EV (Snapshot)
Recorded : 51.6%, 332 EV
True Vote 55.2%, 380 EV

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Posted by on April 5, 2012 in 2004 Election, Election Myths, Media


2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

2000-2004 Presidential Elections County True Vote Model

Richard Charnin

March 28, 2012

The database has been restructured for easier use. It is based on county recorded vote changes and 2000 and 2004 as well as National Exit Poll vote shares. It now calculates the approximate 2004 True Vote for counties in 21 states.

The 2004 County True Vote Model:

In 2000, Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.4%. He won the National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%

In 2004, Kerry won the unadjusted state exit polls by 51.1-47.6%. He won the National Exit Poll by 51.7-47.0%%

The database contains Election Day recorded votes. In 2000 approximately 2.7 million votes were recorded after Election Day; in 2004 approximately 6 million were. Gore and Kerry each had 55% of the late two-party vote.

In 2000, there were approximately 6 million uncounted votes. In 2004, there were approximately 4 million. Gore and Kerry had 70-80%. Total Votes Cast, which includes uncounted votes, are not available by county and therefore not included in the County True Vote calculations. Therefore, the Democratic County True Vote is conservative (uncounted votes are 70-80% Democratic). Total votes cast are included in the National and State True Vote models.

The number of returning 2000 voters is calculated assuming 5% voter mortality over the four year period. The default turnout assumption is that 98% of living 2000 voters voted in 2004.

The number of new voters is calculated as the difference between the 2004 recorded vote and the number of returning 2000 voters. This is just an approximation since the recorded 2000 county vote is used – not the True Vote based on total votes cast .

The Model uses adjusted 12:22am National Exit Poll vote shares as a basis for calculating total state and county vote shares. The adjusted shares are applied to each county’s estimated share of new voters and returning Gore, Bush and Other voters. The weighted average of the county vote shares should closely match the calculated state True Vote.

State and county vote shares are calculated based on the differential between the unadjusted state and national exit poll shares.

The Input sheet is for data entry. Enter the state code in cell A2.

The default assumption is that 2000 voters return to vote in proportion to the 2000 unadjusted exit poll. Enter code 1 to use the 2000 recorded vote as the returning voter option. Since the unadjusted 2000 exit poll is close to the True Vote, the default option is a better choice.

The user has the option of incrementing the returning Gore voter mix percentage. The Bush share will decrease (increase) by the same percentage.

The living 2000 voter turnout rate is set to 98%, but can be changed if desired.

In order to gauge the impact of changes in vote shares, incremental changes to Kerry’s base case vote shares can be input. Bush’s shares will adjust automatically in the opposite direction (the total must equal 100%). Other third-party vote shares are unchanged.

Analyzing the results
The data is sorted by 2004 county vote. The discrepancies are displayed as vote margin (in thousands) and a percentage. The probability of fraud increases as the discrepancy increases. The county True Vote is only an estimate. It can only be determined if the ballots are hand-counted.

The correlation statistic shows the relationship between two variables and ranges from -1 to +1, where -1 is a perfectly negative correlation and +1 is perfectly positive. A near-zero correlation indicates that there is no relationship. A positive correlation indicates that both variables move in the same direction: as one variable increases (decreases), the other also increases (decreases). A negative correlation indicates just the opposite: as one variable increases (decreases) the other decreases (increases).

The model calculates the correlation statistic (relationship) between Kerry’s recorded vote share and the True Vote discrepancy. In general, there is a strong negative correlation between the variables, indicating that as Obama’s recorded county vote share increases (decreases) the discrepancy decreases (increases). This is an indication that the GOP counties are the most fraudulent (as measured by vote share margin discrepancy).

For example, in Ohio, the -0.82 correlation was very strong indicating that Bush counties were extremely fraudulent relative to Kerry counties (based on vote share margin discrepancies).

County Correlation Ratios between the Democratic Recorded Vote and
the True Vote Share Margin Discrepancy
State 2004 2008
NC -0.01 -0.72
WI -0.70 -0.50
OH -0.82 -0.50
NY -0.62 -0.45
FL -0.43 -0.79

At 8:40pm CNN showed that of 2846 exit polled, Bush led by 49.8-49.7%.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2862 respondents) by 50.8-48.0%.
But at 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (52.1-47.9%) for the SAME 2862 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote a 381,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the True Vote by 52.7-46.1%, a 500,000 vote margin.

Kerry’s largest discrepancies from the True Vote were in DRE counties:
Broward, Hillsborough, Palm Beach, Dade, Pinellas.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Dade Broward Palm Beach
Margin: Broward Palm Beach Volusia Polk

At 7:30pm CNN showed that of 1963 exit polled, Kerry led by 52.1-47.9%
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll (2020 respondents) by 54.1-45.9%.
At 1:41am, the poll flipped to Bush (50.9-48.6%) for the SAME 2020 RESPONDENTS, matching the recorded vote, a 119,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the True Vote by 53.1-45.5%, a 426,000 vote margin.

Ohio used Punched card machines, DREs and Optical Scanners.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Cuyahoga Franklin Montgomery Butler
Margin: Butler Warren Clermont

New York
All counties Lever machines.
Kerry won the recorded vote by 58.4-40.1%, a 1,251,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 62.1-36.2%.
Kerry won the True Vote by 63.0-35.1%, a 2,060,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Nassau Suffolk Brooklyn Queens
Margin: Nassau Suffolk Staten Island Rockand

Kerry won the recorded vote by 49.7-49.3%, an 11,000 vote margin.
Kerry won the Exit Poll by 52.0-46.8%.
Kerry won the True Vote by 52.8-45.6%, a 217,000 vote margin.
Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan
Margin: Waukesha Brown Sheboygan Washington

In 2000 Gore won the exit poll (47.2-46.4%) but lost the vote by 50.9-44.7%.
In 2004, Bush won the exit poll (52.8-46.3%) and the recorded vote (54.9-44.4%).

But Kerry won the True Vote by 52.0-46.2% (assuming 2000 voters returned in proportion to the 2000 exit poll). If the model is correct, there was massive election fraud (a 16% discrepancy).

Most fraudulent counties based on…
Votes: Allegheny Montgomery Bucks
Margin: Northampton York Westmoreland


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The 2000-2004 Presidential County Recorded Vote Database

Richard Charnin

March 1, 2012

The 2000-2004 Presidential County Vote Database is a forensic spreadsheet tool for viewing, filtering, sorting and comparing county vote changes from 2000 to 2004. It is important to note that the database contains Election Day recorded votes, not the True votes. The 2004 county voting machine type is indicated.

The database has been updated. It currently consists of 21 states in a single file and includes the True Vote Model for each county.

The original database consists of two worksheets:
Part 1:

Part 2:

In 2000, Gore won the recorded vote by 540,000. But there were nearly 6 million uncounted votes. Gore won the unadjusted exit poll by 50-44% – a six million vote margin that was close to the True Vote Model.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 3 million. There were nearly 4 million uncounted votes. Kerry  won the unadjusted exit poll by 51-47.5%. The True Vote model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

Why bother to analyze state and county recorded votes? What if a county had a near-zero percentage increase in Bush’s 2004 margin from 2000? In other words, if there was nearly equal fraud in both elections, how would we know? Well, if we have evidence of 2004 fraud in a given county, but there was no change in margin from 2000, then we can hypothesize that fraud also occurred in 2000. Conversely, if there was a change in margin in 2004, we could hypothesize that there was an increase in the fraud factor. Since Election Fraud is systemic, the 2000/2004 county vote database has applicability in other state and presidential elections.

New York had the highest level of fraud: there was a 55% average difference between comparable Kerry and Bush correlations. Florida was next at 49%, Ohio had 35%. Oregon, the only vote-by-mail 100% paper ballot state with mandated random county hand-recounts, had just a 4% difference. The results confirmed a prior analysis which indicated a) that Oregon stood alone as the only fraud-free Battleground state and b) confirmed that election fraud caused the large exit poll discrepancies in New York, Florida and Ohio- and many other states.

New York

Bush’s 2004 recorded NY county vote gain over 2000 is indeed an Urban Legend. His percentage gain in the 15 largest NY urban and suburban (Democratic) counties far exceeded those of Kerry. In 2000, Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60-35% with 5% to third parties. But Kerry won by just 58-40%, a 7% decrease in margin. 

NY voted exclusively on Lever machines which had the highest discrepancies (11%) of all voting machine types.

In 2004, Nader had less than 0.5% of the vote nationally. Since returning Nader voters preferred Kerry over Bush by 64-17%, Kerry should have won NY by 63-36% (assuming zero net defections of returning voters). In fact, he won the unadjusted exit poll by 62.1-36.2%. But his recorded margin exceeded Gore in just 6 of 62 counties.

Columbia was the ONLY COUNTY where Bush had fewer votes than he did in 2000 – an indication of zero fraud. Bush had 12,100 votes in 2000 and 11,200 in 2004.

This graph shows Bush and Kerry percentage gains over 2000 in the 15 largest NY counties.

The Bush Urban Legend is also illustrated in this graph which shows the implausible high (0,61) correlation between NY county population size and Bush percentage gain from 2000.


Gore won the FL unadjusted exit poll by a whopping 53.4-43.6% (3% to Nader et al), but Bush won by 537 votes. They were tied at 48.8% – only because the Supreme Court stopped the recount. There were nearly 200,000 uncounted spoiled ballots, a combination of undervotes, overvotes, Butterfly ballots, etc.  

Contrary to the conventional wisdom, Kerry led the 2004 pre-election polls.

In 2004 Bush won again, this time by 52.1-47.9%. Returning Nader 2000 voters broke by nearly 4-1 for Kerry, who also won the unadjusted exit poll by 50.8-48.0%. So how did Bush do it? Well, for one thing FL voting machines were now a mix of unverifiable DREs and Optical scanners. No more punch cards. No more hanging chads. HAVA fixed that problem, so that votes could be stolen cleanly in Cyberspace. No longer would there be blood evidence at the crime scene.

The biggest Democratic counties (Palm Beach, Broward and Dade) showed  virtually no change in Bush’s margin from 2000 to 2004. But changes in county recorded votes can be misleading. Does no change mean that there was no fraud? Obviously not. Election Fraud in both 2000 and 2004 caused Gore and Kerry margins to decline at nearly the same rate. The near-zero net change in margin masks the uniform vote thefts. But the the level of fraud must have increased in counties where Bush gained the most over his 2000 vote (Brevard, Polk, Hillsborough, etc.). Margins increased by 4% in Hillsborough, 7% in Broward and 6% in Palm Beach. These counties used DRE touchscreens in 2004.

Of the 67 Florida counties, Kerry did better than Gore in just five, whereas Bush increased his margin in 62. But in Leon County there was a 10,000 increase in Kerry’s margin, his biggest county gain. Does the fact that Ion Sancho, the Election Integrity activist whose famous “Hursti Hack” demonstrated that Optical Scanners can be rigged and also happens to be the Leon County Election Supervisor, have anything to do with it? 


This 100% paper ballot state uses Optical scanners. Vote is by mail or hand-delivery of ballots to a polling site. A hand recount of ballots is mandated for randomly selected counties. Not surprisingly, with the combination of mandated hand counts (a fraud deterrent) and high turnout, Oregon was the only Battleground state that Kerry won by a margin better than Gore.

Gore won Multnomah, Oregon’s largest county, by 104,000 votes (64.3-28.6%). But Kerry did even better. He won it by 152,000 votes (72.5-27.5%) and apparently picked up a large number of returning Nader 2000 voters. It’s very telling to compare Kerry’s expected gains in urban Multnomah to Bush’s impossible, unexpected gains in heavily Democratic NY counties.

Oregon is a 100% paper ballot state, mandates random hand recounts and enjoys heavy voter turnout. Do these factors have anything to do with Oregon being the only Battleground state in which Kerry’s winning vote share exceeded that of Al Gore?


In 2000, Bush beat Gore by 50.0-46.5%, but the exit poll was close (48.5-47.4%). In 2004, Kerry won the exit poll by a solid 54.1-45.7% but lost the recorded vote by 50.8-48.7% – quite a red-shift. Although there were many Battleground states and strong Democratic states in which vote miscounts favored Bush, Ohio was the epicenter of election fraud. The majority of its 88 counties voted on punch card machines, the rest on DREs and Optical scanners.

In 2000, Gore won Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) by 63-34%. Kerry did even better; he won by 67-33%. Kerry had a 61,000 net gain in margin. But keeping in mind that these are recorded vote shares. Based on the vast evidence of documented fraud, Gore and Kerry must have done much better than their recorded votes indicate. Bush vote gains from 2000 were highest in Butler, Warren and Clermont counties. All had numerous voting irregularities and anomalies.

Did Ken Blackwell, Secretary of State and co-chair of the Ohio Bush-Cheney campaign, have anything to do with Kerry losing Ohio ?


Posted by on March 1, 2012 in 2000 Election, 2004 Election


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Richard Charnin's Blog

JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis


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