Close analysis of inflated Democratic MSM Generic polls indicates the Republicans will win the House

Richard Charnin
Oct.11, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

On Oct. 11, 2018,  the Dems are leading by 49-40% in 7 Real Clear Politics (RCP) MSM Generic polls. Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP  have the Dems leading 45-44%. Which is closer to the truth?

It’s all about voter turnout. Assume the base case: 1) the Democrats and Republicans (after Kavanaugh) are equally motivated to turnout (40% of registered voters), 2)   Gallup voter affiliation Party ID (28D-27R-45I) closely reflects the electorate and 3) there is an equal split in vote shares of independents (50-50%) and party loyalty (90-10%). The  Generic 2-party vote is Dem 50.4%- Repub 49.6%.

In the last three elections, the Dems and Repubs were virtually tied in the Generic ballot and RCP poll average.  The Repubs won the House in all three by a 241-194 average.

Consider various voter turnout scenarios.  For the Dems to win by 9% as the 7-poll RCP average indicates, there would have to be 56% Dem and 40% Repub turnout. Not likely.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

 

Scenario I	Party-ID	Turnout/ Reg Voters	Turnout Votes (000)	Repub	Dem
Rep	27%	40%	17020	90%	10%
Dem	28%	40%	17651	10%	90%
Ind	45%	40%	28367	50%	50%
Total	100%	40%	–	49.60%	50.40%
		Votes	63,038	31,267	31,771
Various Turnout scenarios
Rep	Ind	Dem	Total	Repub	Dem
40%	40%	40%	40.0%	49.60%	50.40%
40%	40%	41%	40.3%	49.32%	50.68%
40%	40%	42%	40.5%	49.05%	50.95%
40%	40%	43%	40.8%	48.79%	51.21%
40%	40%	44%	41.1%	48.52%	51.48%
40%	40%	45%	41.4%	48.26%	51.74%
		Votes	65,166	31,488	33,757
40%	40%	56%	44.3%	45.61%	54.39%
		Votes	69,847	31,973	38,126

	Generic Poll %		RCP Avg %		House
Election	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep	Dem	Rep
2016	46	45.4	48	49.1	194	241
2014	43.2	45.6	45.2	51.4	188	247
2012	47.3	47.5	49.2	48	201	234
Average	45.5	46.2	47.5	49.5	194.3	240.7

What if the Repubs win 53% of Independents, assuming equal 40% registered voter turnout? Then they win the Generic vote by 51-49%.

Scenario II	Party-ID	Turnout/ Reg Voters	Turnout Votes (000)	Repub	Dem
Rep	27%	40%	17020	90%	10%
Dem	28%	40%	17651	10%	90%
Ind	45%	40%	28367	53%	47%
Total	100%	40.0%	–	50.95%	49.05%
		Votes	63,038	32,118	30,920

	Date	Sample	Dem%	Repub%	Spread
RCP 9-poll Average	9/27 – 10/9	—	48.1	41.2	6.9
Economist/YouGov	10/7 – 10/9	1162 RV	47	41	6
Reuters/Ipsos	10/3 – 10/9	2012 LV	50	38	12
CNN	10/4 – 10/7	739 LV	54	41	13
Emerson	10/1 – 10/4	1000 RV	50	42	8
NPR/PBS/ Marist	10/1 – 10/1	996 RV	48	42	6
Harvard-Harris	9/29 – 9/30	1330 RV	45	37	8
Quinnipiac	9/27 – 9/30	1111 RV	49	42	7
7-poll Average			49.0	40.4	8.6
Rasmussen Reports	9/30 – 10/4	2500 LV	45	45	0
IBD/TIPP	9/27 – 10/3	846 RV	45	43	2
Average			45.0	44.0	1.0

Advertisements

 

GOP wins Texas senate district 19 for first time in 139 years

Richard Charnin
Sept.27, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Flores (GOP) wins Texas senate district 19 (53-47%) for the first time in 139 years. Hispanics comprise 66%, blacks 7%, whites 27%.

Hillary Clinton carried  SD19 by 12%. Trump carried TX by 7%.

TX	2016	Clinton	Trump	Other	Trump 2pty
White	57%	26%	69%	5%	73%
Black	11%	84%	11%	5%	12%
Hispanic	24%	61%	34%	5%	36%
Asian	5%	72%	26%	2%	27%
Other	3%	56%	36%	8%	39%
Total	100.0%	44.0%	51.1%	4.9%	53.8%

In SD19, Flores did 9% (estimated) better than Trump. The following table shows how the groups may have voted.

SD19 (2-party)	Pct	Trump	Flores
White	27%	73%	73%
Black	7%	12%	24%
Hispanic	66%	36%	48%
Total	100%	44.3%	53.1%

Recent polling shows Democratic U.S. senators are vulnerable in close races in Indiana, North Dakota, Missouri, Minnesota and New Jersey.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2018/09/20/gop-victory-in-texas-race-is-good-sign-that-republicans-can-defy-history-in-midterms.html

 

2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Richard Charnin
9/25/2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

2018 Generic Ballot Scenarios

Real Clear Politics: Democrats lead 48.7-41.2%
Given: Gallup voter affiliation 28R-27D-45I
2016 Census: Total Registered Voters = 157,596,000
The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

Generic Poll Model Row 132: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1619968863

Assume equal 40% Dem, Rep, Ind turnout
Result: Republicans win Generic vote 45.05-44.62%

The RCP 7.5% Dem margin requires a 56-40% Dem lead in registered voter turnout

Turnout 2018	Party-ID	Turnout/ Reg %	Turnout	Rep	Dem	Other
Rep	28%	40%	17651	86%	7%	7%
Dem	27%	40%	17020	6%	88%	6%
Ind	45%	40%	28367	43%	42%	15%
Total	100%		40.00%	45.05%	44.62%	10.33%
		Votes	63,038	28,399	28,128	6,512

Rep	Ind	Dem Turnout	Total Turnout	Rep	Dem	Other
40%	40%	40%	40.00%	45.05%	44.62%	10.33%
40%	40%	41%	40.27%	44.79%	44.91%	10.30%
40%	40%	42%	40.54%	44.53%	45.20%	10.27%
40%	40%	43%	40.81%	44.27%	45.48%	10.24%
40%	40%	44%	41.08%	44.02%	45.76%	10.22%
40%	40%	45%	41.35%	43.78%	46.04%	10.19%
		Votes	65,166	28,526	30,000	6,640
40%	40%	56%	44.32%	41.24%	48.85%	9.91%
		Votes	69,847	28,807	34,119	6,920

Historical Turnout
http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present

 

 

Reuters Trump Approval: from 42% to 47% in one week. Why? Do the math.

Richard Charnin
Sept.23, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

Reuters/Ipsos Trump Approval was 42.5% on 9/13/18.
1) Democrat Party ID was over-weighted at 40%
2) Republican Trump approval was understated at 84%
3) Independent Trump approval was understated at 38%

On 9/20/18 Reuters has 47% Trump approval. Why the jump?
1) Democratic Party ID is 27% based on the Gallup Survey.
2) Independent Party ID is 45%.
3) Republican Trump approval is a reasonable 90%
4) Independent Trump approval is 43%

Rasmussen has Trump at 49%.

 

Trump approval
Reuters 9/13	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1	Rasmussen1
Rep	35.0%	84.0%	90.0%	91.0%
Dem	40.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Ind/Other	25.0%	38.0%	43.0%	47.0%
Total	100.0%	42.5%	45.9%	47.2%
Reuters 9/20	Gallup Party ID	Approval	Adjusted2	Rasmussen2
Rep	28.0%	84.0%	90.0%	91.0%
Dem	27.0%	9.0%	9.0%	9.0%
Ind/Other	45.0%	38.0%	43.0%	47.0%
Total	100.0%	43.1%	47.0%	49.1%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html#polls
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

 

Florida Governor Pre-election Polls

Richard Charnin
Sept. 14, 2018

LINKS TO  BLOG POSTS

According to the latest Quinnipiac poll, Gillum leads DeSantis by 3%. DeSantis has just 52% of whites (implausible), 2% of blacks (implausible) and 56% of Latinos/others. Let’s recalculate using plausible vote shares.

Rasmussen has Gillum ahead by 48-42%. DeSantis has just 29% of Independents and 46% of whites?  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/fl/florida_governor_desantis_vs_gillum-6518.html

But first consider the 2016 FL presidential election. According to the FL exit poll, Trump had 64% of whites, 8% of blacks and 35% of Latinos. He had 89% of Republicans, 8% of Democrats and 47% of Independents.

Florida Exit Poll (match to recorded vote)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/florida/president

Party ID	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	32%	90%	8%	0%	1%
Rep	33%	8%	89%	3%	0%
Ind/oth	34%	43%	47%	3%	1%
Match	99%	46.1%	47.9%	2.0%	0.7%
Reported		47.8%	49.0%	2.2%	0.7%
Votes	9,420	4,505	4,618	207	64

 

Race	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	62%	32%	64%	4%
Black	14%	84%	8%	8%
Latino	18%	62%	35%	3%
Asian	2%	58%	36%	6%
Other	4%	58%	36%	6%
Calc	100.0%	46.2%	49.3%	4.5%

Quinnipiac- 2018 Fl Gov

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2565

FLORIDA	Quinnipiac			What If
PartyID	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
Dem	31%	3%	93%	6%	93%
Rep	35%	92%	6%	92%	6%
Ind/Other	34%	42%	55%	47%	48%
Total	100%	47.4%	49.6%	50.0%	47.3%
				What If
Race	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
White	67%	52%	45%	58%	39%
Black	14%	2%	93%	6%	93%
Lat/oth	19%	56%	43%	56%	43%
Total	100%	45.8%	51.3%	50.3%	47.3%

Rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/crosstabs_toplines/public_crosstabs_election_2018_florida_governor_september_10_11_2018

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_governor

	Rasmussen			What if
PartyID	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
Dem	31%	14%	82%	10%	90%
Rep	35%	80%	13%	90%	10%
Ind/Other	34%	29%	54%	47%	53%
Total	100%	42.2%	48.3%	50.6%	49.4%
				What if
Race	Pct	DeSantis	Gillum	DeSantis	Gillum
White	67%	46%	45%	55%	45%
Black	14%	24%	75%	20%	80%
Lat/oth	19%	48%	37%	55%	45%
Total	100%	43.3%	47.7%	50.1%	49.9%

 

 

Why Trump has a higher approval rating than the MSM polls

Richard Charnin
Sept. 11, 2018

Sept. 11 RCP average 40.6%; Rasmussen 47%
Sept. 22:  RCP average 42.2%; Rasmussen 49%
Oct. 4:  RCP average 43.5%; Rasmussen 51%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why the discrepancy with Rasmussen?
1) Democrat Party ID overweighted (6-7% over Repub)
2) Trump’s estimated true approval (90% Repub, 43% Independent) reduced to 78-84% and 35-38%.

Calculate adjusted Trump approval based on
1) PollID = pollster Party ID*pollster approval
2) Adj1 = pollster Party ID*adjusted approval
3) GallupID = Gallup Party ID*pollster approval
4) Adj2 = Gallup PartyID*adjusted approval

 

Rasmussen Oct.4	Gallup ID	Approval
Rep	28%	92%
Dem	27%	9%
Ind/Other	45%	51%
Total	100%	51.1%

Trump Sept. 11 Approval
Reuters/Ipsos	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	35%	84%	90%
Dem	40%	9%	9%
Ind/Other	25%	38%	430%
Total	100%	42.5%	45.9%
	Actual	43.0%
Reuters
Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	84%	90%
Dem	27%	9%	9%
Ind/Other	45%	38%	43%
Total	100%	43.1%	47.0%
Washington Post	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	25%	78%	90%
Dem	33%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	37%	35%	43%
Total	95%	34.4%	40.4%
	Actual	38%
Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	78%	90%
Dem	27%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	45%	35%	43%
Total	100%	39.2%	46.17%
	Actual	40%
CNN	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	25%	83%	90%
Dem	31%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	44%	29%	43%
Total	100%	35.4%	43.3%
	Actual	37%
Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	83%	90%
Dem	27%	6%	6%
Ind/Other	45%	29%	43%
Total	100%	37.9%	46.17%
Quinnipiac	Party ID	Approval	Adjusted1
Rep	25%	84%	90%
Dem	34%	4%	4%
Ind/Other	41%	36%	43%
Total	100%	37.1%	41.5%
	Actual	38%
Gallup/adjusted	Gallup ID	Approval	Adjusted2
Rep	28%	84%	90%
Dem	27%	4%	4%
Ind/Other	45%	36%	43%
Total	100%	40.8%	45.63%

Total Sept.22	Actual	Poll PartyID	Adjusted1	Gallup PartyID	Adjusted2
Reuters	42.0%	42.5%	45.9%	43.1%	47.0%
WaPo	38.0%	34.4%	40.4%	39.2%	46.2%
CNN	37.0%	35.4%	43.3%	37.9%	46.2%
Quinnipiac	38.0%	37.1%	41.5%	40.8%	45.6%
AVG	38.8%	37.4%	42.8%	40.2%	46.2%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-09/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_09052018.pdf

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/09/10/rel8a.-.trump.pdf

https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us09102018_demos_umvj56.pdf

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/08/16/rasmussen-36-trump-black-approval/

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/08/03/2016-were-clintons-pre-election-poll-numbers-and-recorded-vote-inflated/

 

Sharyl Attkisson: Collusion against Trump timeline

Richard Charnin
Aug. 20, 2018

A great resource from Sharyl Attkisson: Collusion against Trump timeline

“On the other side, evidence has emerged in the past year that makes it clear there were organized efforts to collude against candidate Donald Trump–and then President Trump. For example:

– Anti-Russian Ukrainians allegedly helped coordinate and execute a campaign against Trump in partnership with the Democratic National Committee and news reporters.

– A Yemen-born ex-British spy reportedly delivered political opposition research against Trump to reporters, Sen. John McCain, and the FBI; the latter of which used the material–in part–to obtain wiretaps against one or more Trump-related associates.

– There were orchestrated leaks of anti-Trump information and allegations to the press, including by ex-FBI Director James Comey.

– The U.S. intel community allegedly engaged in questionable surveillance practices and politially-motivated “unmaskings” of U.S. citizens, including Trump officials.

– Alleged conflicts of interests have surfaced regarding FBI officials who cleared Hillary Clinton for mishandling classified information and who investigated Trump’s alleged Russia ties.

But it’s not so easy to find a timeline pertinent to the investigations into these events.

Here’s a work in progress”.

https://sharylattkisson.com/2018/07/26/collusion-against-trump-timeline/

………………

Also from Sharyl Attkisson: 55 Media Mistakes in the Trump Era

We the media have “fact-checked” President Trump like we have fact-checked no other human being on the planet—and he’s certainly given us plenty to write about. That’s probably why it’s so easy to find lists enumerating and examining his mistakes, missteps and “lies.”

But as self-appointed arbiters of truth, we’ve largely excused our own unprecedented string of fact-challenged reporting. The truth is, formerly well-respected, top news organizations are making repeat, unforced errors in numbers that were unheard of just a couple of years ago.

Our repeat mistakes involve declaring that Trump’s claims are “lies” when they are matters of opinion, or when the truth between conflicting sources is unknowable; taking Trump’s statements and events out of context; reporting secondhand accounts against Trump without attribution as if they’re established fact; relying on untruthful, conflicted sources; and presenting reporter opinions in news stories—without labeling them as opinions.

What’s worse, we defend ourselves by trying to convince the public that our mistakes are actually a virtue because we (sometimes) correct them. Or we blame Trump for why we’re getting so much wrong. It’s a little bit like a police officer taking someone to jail for DUI, then driving home drunk himself: he may be correct to arrest the suspect, but he should certainly know better than to commit the same violation.

So since nobody else has compiled an updated, extensive list of this kind, here are:
https://sharylattkisson.com/2018/07/11/50-media-mistakes-in-the-trump-era-the-definitive-list/