Richard Charnin
Nov. 26, 2018
AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy
Republican Governor Ducey won by 337,000 votes.
Democrat Senator Sinema won by 56,000 votes.
McSally (R) led in early voting by 475k-365k (56.5-43.5%).
Sinema needed 826k (55.6%) of 1486k votes on Election Day to match her 50.6% share.
In Maricopa County (Phoenix), McSally led in early voting by 302k-216k (58.3-41.7%) but Sinema won the county 659k-611k (51.9-48.1%) – a 134k vote(12.8%) decline from McSally’s early margin.
Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote.
The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote.
Check Party ID and the vote shares
Did McSally win the True Vote?
I smell a rat.
National Exit Poll
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/national-results
Dems win 53.3-45.1% (9.2 million votes)
Gov Exit Poll -Party ID
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona
Ducey (R) wins by 337,000 votes
Senate Exit Poll -Party ID
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate
Sinema (D) wins by 56,000 votes
True Vote estimate 1
Turnout based on voter registration and plausible vote shares
McSally wins by 65,000 votes
True Vote estimate 2
Turnout based on Exit Poll Party ID and plausible vote shares
McSally wins by 130,000 votes
Sensitivity Analysis
McSally vote share, margins and win probability scenarios
Early ballots
GOP led by 475,000-365,000 votes (53.3-44.5%)
Sinema needed 826,000 (55.6%) of 1,486,000 Election Day ballots
to match the recorded vote.
| NEP | Party ID | Democrats | Republicans | Other |
| Dem | 37% | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| Rep | 33% | 6% | 94% | 0 |
| Ind | 30% | 54% | 42% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 53.3% | 45.1% | 1.6% |
| 111,478 | 59,451 | 50,276 | 1,750 |
| AZ Gov | Party ID | Garcia | Ducey | Other |
| Dem | 31% | 85% | 14% | 1% |
| Rep | 38% | 5% | 95% | N/A |
| Ind | 31% | 45% | 52% | 3% |
| Match | 100.0% | 42.2% | 56.6% | 1.2% |
| Vote | 2354 | 994 | 1331 | 29.18 |
| 100.0% | 41.8% | 56.0% | 2.2% | |
| Margin | 337 |
| Recorded | Reg | Sinema | McSally | Other |
| Dem | 31% | 97% | 3% | 0% |
| Rep | 38% | 12% | 85% | 3% |
| Ind | 31% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| Total | 100.0% | 50.1% | 47.8% | 2.1% |
| Vote | 2366 | 1186 | 1131 | 49 |
| Margin | -55 | |||
| Sensitivity | McSally%Dem | |||
| McSally%Rep | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% |
| Vote Share | ||||
| 90% | 49.7% | 50.3% | 50.9% | 51.6% |
| 89% | 49.3% | 49.9% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| 88% | 48.9% | 49.6% | 50.2% | 50.8% |
| 87% | 48.6% | 49.2% | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 86% | 48.2% | 48.8% | 49.4% | 50.0% |
| 85% | 47.8% recorded | 48.4% | 49.0% | 49.7% |
| Margin (000) | ||||
| 90% | 35 | 64 | 93 | 123 |
| 89% | 17 | 46 | 75 | 105 |
| 88% | -1 | 28 | 57 | 87 |
| 87% | -19 | 10 | 40 | 69 |
| 86% | -37 | -8 | 22 | 51 |
| 85% | -55 recorded | -26 | 4 | 33 |
| Win Prob | ||||
| 90% | 64.3% | 78.2% | 88.3% | 94.5% |
| 89% | 54.5% | 70.0% | 82.6% | 91.1% |
| 88% | 44.4% | 60.7% | 75.3% | 86.4% |
| 87% | 34.7% | 50.8% | 66.7% | 80.1% |
| 86% | 26.0% | 40.8% | 57.1% | 72.3% |
| 85% | 18.5% recorded | 31.4% | 47.1% | 63.3% |
| Candidate | Recorded Vote | Pct | Early vote | Chg votes | Eday Votes Required |
| Sinema | 1,191,100 | 50.6% | 365,469 | 825,631 | 55.58% |
| McSally | 1,135,200 | 47.6% | 475,372 | 659,828 | 44.42% |
| Green (withdrawn) | 57,442 | 1.8% | 256,737 | -199,295 | -15.50% |
| Total votes | 2,383,741 | 100.00% | 1,097,578 | 1,286,163 | 100.00% |
McSally change in share from early to final vote
| County | Early share | Final share | Margin Change |
| Apache | 36.3% | 32.4% | -6,896 |
| Cochise | 58.9% | 61.0% | 6,808 |
| Coconino | 41.5% | 36.0% | -12,292 |
| Gila | 64.9% | 61.5% | 1,863 |
| Graham | 66.5% | 67.1% | 2,206 |
| Greenlee | 40.7% | 57.6% | 567 |
| LaPaz | 73.6% | 66.6% | 671 |
| Maricopa | 58.3% | 48.1% | -134,453 |
| Mohave | 74.2% | 72.3% | 17,831 |
| Navajo | 58.3% | 53.0% | 374 |
| Pima | 44.5% | 42.4% | -37,720 |
| Pinal | 61.6% | 56.1% | 5,839 |
| Santa Cruz | 28.5% | 29.3% | -3,466 |
| Yavapai | 70.0% | 61.9% | 10,463 |
| Yuma | 58.0% | 53.2% | 295 |
| Total | 56.5% | 49.1% | -147,910 |
County Graph
