The Reuters/Ipsos impeachment polling scam: more confirmation of MSM duplicity

Richard Charnin
Nov. 29, 2019

The latest poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, found that 47% of adults in the United States felt Trump “should be impeached,” while 40% said he should not.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/reuters-peddles-democrat-heavy-poll-claiming-impeachment-support-growing

BUT THE REUTERS NUMBERS ARE MATHEMATICALLY IMPOSSIBLE! How can -14.1% of Indies approve and -6.8% oppose impeachment?

The problem? Reuters sampled a disproportionate number of Democrats. Buried at the bottom of their report, they disclose:

“The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online, in English, throughout the United States. It gathered responses from 1,118 adults, including 528 Democrats (51%), 394 Republicans (38%) and 111 (11%) Independents. It has a credibility interval, a measure of precision, of 3 percentage points”.

Reuters…….. Approve Oppose (Implausible Party ID)
Rep 38%……. 20.0% 80.0%
Dem 51%…… 80.0% 20.0%
Ind 11%……. -14.1% -6.8% impossible negatives!
Poll………….. 47.0% 40.0% Bogus

Approval calculation: .47=.38*.20+.51*.80 +.11*(-.141)

Let’s adjust to plausible realistic Gallup voter affiliation weights and estimate the true percent of Independents who oppose impeachment.

Gallup………Approve Oppose (Plausible Party ID)
Rep 30% …… 20.0% 80.0%
Dem 31%…… 80.0% 20.0%
Ind 39%……… 23.6% 50.8%
Adjusted…… 40.0% 50.0% True

From Zerohedge: “After several major polls revealed a sharp decline in support for impeaching President Trump in the wake of unconvincing public testimony by aggrieved bureaucrats (and at least one House Democrat publicly opposing the move), Reuters/Ipsos now claims support for impeachment has increased.

“Reuters sampled more Democrats than Republicans and independents combined to arrive at their conclusion. They also reveal that ” about eight in 10 Democrats were supportive of impeaching Trump, and eight in 10 Republicans opposed”

The result, combined with Reuters/Ipsos polling over the past several weeks, showed that the number of Americans who want to impeach the president increasingly outnumbers those who do not. -Reuters

In the 2016 US election, Reuters/Ipsos was oversampling Democrats. Hillary Clinton had a giant lead over Donald Trump using a poll that sampled 44% Democrats and 33% Republicans.

I  analyzed the bogus CNN poll on Nov. 26:

CNN has 50% for impeachment, 43% against? That is just more BS propaganda. Who believes it? If you do, I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you. MSM polls are always over-weighted for the Dems.

The Gallup monthly voter affiliation survey is an accurate National tracking poll. Trump won the TRUE popular vote in 2016 and will win a landslide in 2020!

Bogus CNN poll: 50% approve, 43% oppose
CNN Pct…. Approve Oppose
Rep 25%……. 9.0% 84.0% Implausible
Dem 31%….. 85.0% 12.0%
Ind 44%……..48.6% 41.5%
Poll………….50.0% 43.0% Implausible

Adjusted: 44% approve, 55% oppose
Gallup Pct.. Approve Oppose
Rep 30%………..9.0% 90.0%  Plausible
Dem 31%……. 85.0% 12.0%
Ind 39%..,…… 38.0% 62.0%
Adjusted…… 44.0% 55.0% Plausible

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/11/16/2016-national-exit-poll-race-vote-shares-and-corresponding-census-weights-indicates-that-trump-won-the-popular-vote/
https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/26/politics/trump-cnn-impeachment-poll/index.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

 

2016 National Exit Poll Race vote shares and corresponding Census weights indicate that Trump won the Popular vote

Richard Charnin
Nov.16, 2019

 2016 National Exit Poll vote shares and corresponding Census weights indicate that Trump won the Popular vote.

It is standard operating procedure: In every exit poll, all demographic crosstabs are adjusted to match the recorded vote.  But what if the exit poll weightings and/or vote shares are forced to match a bogus recorded vote? That means the polls are also bogus.

The NEP Race crosstab indicates that 71% of the electorate were white voters. Clinton won the recorded vote by 2.83 million (48.2-46.1%).

Census vote data indicate that white voters comprised 73.46% of the electorate. Using  Census weights and NEP vote shares, Trump is the winner  by 852,000 votes (47.5-46.8%).

Clinton won the 28 exit poll states by 49.2-45.2%.  But according to the exit polls, 68.9% of voters were white compared to 72.8% in the Census. The 3.9% discrepancy favored Clinton since Trump won whites by at least 20%. The 28 states represented 110.9  (81%) of 136.2 million votes.

Trump won the 23 non-exit poll states (25.4 million votes) by 50.4-43.7%.  The Census showed that whites were 76.2% of the vote in the 23 states.

View the sensitivity analysis matrix of alternative Trump shares scenarios. For instance, if Trump had 59% of whites and 22% of non-whites, he wins by 5.58 million votes (49.2-45.1%).

NEP	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	71.0%	37%	57%	6%
Black	12.0%	89%	8%	3%
Latino	11.0%	66%	28%	6%
Asian	4.0%	65%	27%	8%
Other	2.0%	56%	36%	8%	Margin
Total	100.00%	47.93%	46.31%	5.76%	1.62%
	136,216	65,288	63,082	7,846	2,207
	Recorded	48.25%	46.17%	5.70%	2.08%
	136,216	65,724	62,891	7,764	2,833

NEP	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	71.0%	37.0%	57.0%	6.0%
Non-white	29.0%	74.0%	21.0%	5.0%	Margin
Total	100.0%	47.73%	46.56%	5.71%	1.17%
	136,216	65,016	63,422	7,778	1,594
	Recorded	48.25%	46.17%	5.70%	2.08%
	136,216	65,724	62,891	7,764	2,833

Census	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	73.46%	37.0%	57.0%	6.0%
Non-white	26.54%	74.0%	21.0%	5.0%	Margin
	100.00%	46.82%	47.45%	5.73%	0.63%
	136,216	63,776	64,628	7,811	852
	Recorded	48.25%	46.17%	5.70%	2.08%
	136,216	65,724	62,891	7,764	2,833

Trump%
White	57.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%
Non-white			Trump
25.0%	48.51%	49.24%	49.98%	50.71%	51.45%
24.0%	48.24%	48.98%	49.71%	50.45%	51.18%
23.0%	47.98%	48.71%	49.45%	50.18%	50.91%
22.0%	47.71%	48.45%	49.18%	49.91%	50.65%
21.0%	47.45%	48.18%	48.91%	49.65%	50.38%
Trump%
White	57.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%
Non-white			Clinton
25.0%	45.76%	45.02%	44.29%	43.55%	42.82%
24.0%	46.02%	45.29%	44.55%	43.82%	43.09%
23.0%	46.29%	45.55%	44.82%	44.09%	43.35%
22.0%	46.55%	45.82%	45.09%	44.35%	43.62%
21.0%	46.82%	46.09%	45.35%	44.62%	43.88%
Trump%
White	57.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%
Non-white			Margin
25.0%	3,745	5,746	7,747	9,748	11,750
24.0%	3,022	5,023	7,024	9,025	11,027
23.0%	2,299	4,300	6,301	8,302	10,304
22.0%	1,575	3,577	5,578	7,579	9,581
21.0%	852	2,854	4,855	6,856	8,858

http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls/national/president

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17h3tOueSvQWwYFLwOEg3tCoIFdoB7wnEscsMgSFeDAk/edit#gid=1447777586

Tables 4A and 4B:    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/voting-and-registration/p20-580.html

 

JFK witness groups: mortality probabilities

Richard Charnin
Nov.7, 2019

Probabilities of unnatural deaths and homicides are calculated based on the Poisson function for the following witness groups : Warren Commission (552),  HSCA (200), Dealey Plaza (692), Simkin JFK Index (656), London Sunday Times Actuary (418).

JFK witness groups unnatural and homicide death probabilities

In 1963-1978, 78 of 122 suspicious deaths were officially ruled unnatural among 1500 JFK-related witnesses: 34 homicides, 24 accidents, 16 suicides and 4 unknown. The probability of 78 unnatural deaths = 4.3E-60 = 1 in a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion. The probability of 34 homicides = 1.3E-30 = 1 in a million trillion trillion.

There are an estimated one trillion trillion (E+24) stars in the universe.

Just 12 accidents and 3 suicides were expected based on mortality rates, therefore approximately 59 unnatural deaths were homicides (34 ruled+12 “accidents”+13 “suicides”).  Of the 44 “natural” deaths (heart attacks, sudden cancers, other), approximately 25-30 were homicides. Therefore, there were an estimated 85 homicides among the 122 suspicious deaths. The probability of 85 homicides among 1500 witnesses = 1.7E-106.

Sensitivity Analysis: Probability of  n homicides, N witnesses, T= 15 years, R=0.000084 mortality rate

Expected = N*T*R	1.89	3.78	6.30
Witnesses	1500	3000	5000
Homicides		Probability
22	1.62E-16	1.03E-10	6.29E-07
34 ruled	1.28E-30	3.33E-21	9.36E-15
59	2.23E-65	1.94E-48	1.92E-36
85 estimated	1.69E-106	9.89E-82	5.73E-64

 

METHOD: POISSON PROBABILITY FUNCTION
LONDON SUNDAY TIMES ACTUARY: CALCULATION CONFIRMATION
1 in 100,000 trillion probability of 18 witness deaths by Feb. 1967
R unnatural rate	0.000209	weighted unnatural death rate
N witnesses	418	Warren Commission testified in person (source:CIA)
n deaths	18	13 unnatural; 5 natural
T years	3.26	3 years, 3 months (Nov ’63-Feb ’67)
E=R*N*T=0.000209 *418 * 3.26		E= 0.2848 expected unnatural deaths
P(13 unnatural deaths in 3.26 years) = 0.2848^13 * exp(-0.2848) / 13! = 9.80E-18
P(13) = Poisson (13, 0.2848, false)
P (13) = 1 in 102,081,079,385,890,000 = 1 in 102 thousand trillion
Calculation of R (weighted unnatural  death rate)
R = 0.000209 = (8*.000061+3*000658+2*000128)/13 (1964-66 average annual rate)
8 homicides	0.000061
3 accidents	0.000658
2 suicides	0.000128

Warren Commission	Dealey Plaza	HSCA	Simkin Index
ALAN BELMONT	Allen Sweatt	“Lummie” Lewis	Buddy Walthers
ALBERT BOGARD	Bill Decker	ALAN BELMONT	C.D. Jackson
Allen Sweatt	Billy Lovelady	Carlos Prio	Carlos Prio
Bill Decker	Buddy Walthers	Charles Nicoletti	Charles Cabell
Billy Lovelady	Charles Mentesana	DAVID MORALES	Charles Murret
BUDDY WALTHERS	Charles Nicoletti	DONALD KAYLOR	Charles Nicoletti
Charles Murret	Cliff Carter	GEORGE DE MORENSCHILDT	Clay Shaw
Cliff Carter	Clint “Lummie” Lewis	J.M. ENGLISH	Cliff Carter
DE MORENSCHILDT	David Morales	JAMES CADIGAN	Dave Yaras
DOMINGO BENAVIDES	Earl Cabell	James Weston	David Ferrie
EARLE CABELL	Frank Martin	JOHN PAISLEY	David Morales
Earlene Roberts	Ira (Jack) Beers	JOHNNY ROSELLI	Desmond Fitzgerald
Edward Voebel	J.A. Milteer	LOUIS NICHOLS	Earl Cabell
FRANK MARTIN	J.D. Tippit	MANUEL ARTIME	Eladio Del Valle
HALE BOGGS	Jack Ruby	REGIS KENNEDY	Frank Wisner
HAROLD RUSSELL	James Chaney	Robert Alan Surrey	G DeMorenschildt
J. EDGAR HOOVER	James Worrell	Thomas Karamessines	Guy Banister
JACK RUBY	Johnny Roselli	William Harvey	J.Edgar Hoover
JAMES CADIGAN	Ken O’Donnell	William Pawley	Jack Ruby
JAMES WORRELL	Lee Bowers	WILLIAM SULLIVAN	Jimmy Hoffa
KAREN CARLIN	Lee Harvey Oswald		Johnny Roselli
Ken O’Donnell	Mac Wallace		Lucien Sarti
LEE BOWERS.	Merriman Smith		Lyndon Johnson
Lummie Lewis	Roger Craig		Mac Wallace
Paul Raigorodsky	Roscoe White		Manuel Artime
Philip Geraci	Roy Kellerman		Mary Sherman
ROGER CRAIG	Thomas E. Davis		Paul Helliwell
WARREN REYNOLDS	William Whaley		Richard Cain
WILLIAM WHALEY			Roland Masferrer
			Roscoe White
			Sam Giancana
			Thomas E. Davis
			William Harvey
			William Pawley
			William Sullivan
			Winston Scott
			Dorothy Hunt
			Grant Stockdale
			J.D. Tippit
			John Paisley
			Lee Harvey Oswald
			Mary Jo Kopechne
			Mary Pinchot Meyer
			Robert F. Kennedy
			Sheffield Edwards
			Thomas Karamessines
			Bill Hunter
			Dorothy Kilgallen
			Hale Boggs
			Jim Koethe
			Merriman Smith
			Alan Belmont
			Bill Decker
			Billy Lovelady
			Earlene Roberts
			Eddie Benavides
			Florence Smith
			Gary Underhill
			James Truitt
			Karyn Kupcinet
			Ken O’Donnell
			Lee Bowers
			Lisa Howard
			Nancy Carole Tyler
			Roger Craig
			Rose Cheramie
			Roy Kellerman
			Tom Howard
			Warren Reynolds
			William Pitzer

 

 

Tulsi Sounds Like Trump

Richard Charnin
Oct. 20, 2019

First, Tulsi Gabbard’s tweet:
“Great! Thank you @HillaryClinton. You, the queen of warmongers, embodiment of corruption, and personification of the rot that has sickened the Democratic Party for so long, have finally come out from behind the curtain. From the day I announced my candidacy, there has been a concerted campaign to destroy my reputation. We wondered who was behind it and why. (sounds like Trump)
“Now we know — it was always you, through your proxies and powerful allies in the corporate media and war machine, afraid of the threat I pose. It’s now clear that this primary is between you and me. Don’t cowardly hide behind your proxies. Join the race directly,” said Gabbard in three tweets on Friday afternoon. (sounds like Trump)

Now from her website: https://www.tulsi2020.com
“If you look at other countries in the world who have universal health care, every one of them has some form of a role for PRIVATE insurance (sounds like Trump)……”

“As president, I will lead this country to bring about a bold change in our foreign policy that bends the arc of history away from war and towards peace. That stops wasting our resources, and our lives on REGIME CHANGE wars, and redirects our focus and energy towards peace and prosperity for all people” (sounds like Trump).… “

“Criminal justice reform is a bipartisan issue. We can bring down costs and improve outcomes by implementing alternatives to incarceration.” (sounds like Trump)… ”

“Too often, the LGBTQ community still faces discrimination in the workplace, in education, or when trying to find a home. It’s long overdue that we extend civil rights protections to the LGBTQ community and ensure equal treatment for all Americans under the law—regardless of race, sexual orientation, gender, religion, disability, or national origin.” (sounds like Trump)….”

“For a nation forged by immigrants, wrestling with the legacy of slavery and racial injustice, we continue to aspire to live up to the founding ideals of America — of freedom, equality, and justice for all. Hawaii stands as a shining example of how to heal our nation and stand united through the power of aloha. (sounds like Trump)…”

“A strong national defense and the protection of our civil liberties are equally important and compatible. We can strike the necessary balance between freedom and security by reforming our surveillance practices and directing the resources we have toward proven methods of eliminating threats to the safety and security of the American people. (sounds like Trump)…”

“Unfortunately, President Trump turned his back on the Constitution and launched retaliatory missile strikes against the Syrian government before any investigation had even begun, much less been completed. Rather than waiting for evidence, Trump acted on impulse and emotion, relying on social media posts and unverified sources originating from within territory held by al Qaeda. (I agree with Tulsi,Trump should have told the truth: Assad did not gas his own people- it was al Qaeda)…”

“We need comprehensive immigration reform to address our broken immigration laws and we need to have a serious conversation about the most effective and humane ways to compassionately secure our borders while building bridges and cooperative foreign policy with other countries. We need to ensure we have a clear, enforceable, accessible, and humane pathway to citizenship.(sounds like Trump)…”

“The time for action is now. We cannot allow partisan politics to get in the way of taking meaningful action in areas where both parties agree and that have the support of most Americans across this country.(sounds like Trump)…”

“This is the huge vulnerability that threatens our next election, that so far, unfortunately, has not been addressed. The fact that there are still many states in this country who don’t have paper ballots or any kind of auditable paper trail; to make sure that whether it’s another country, or an individual rogue actor, that comes in and tries to manipulate our votes, tries to change our votes to change the outcome of this election; our system is vulnerable to those hacks and attacks today. (sounds like Trump)…”

 

Moody’s 2020 presidential election forecast: Trump is the clear favorite.

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2019

This is an analysis of Moody’s 2020 forecast. It consists of three models and assumes 2-party votes: Pocketbook, Stock and Unemployment.

In each model there are three turnout assumptions (Maximum, Average and Minimum). Trump wins if there is average or minimum Democratic turnout. He loses if Democratic turnout is at a maximum level relative to Republicans and Independents.

Compare to the 2016 election. Clinton won the popular recorded vote by 2.86 million  (48.2-46.1%). The 2016 National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote) had Trump winning Independents by 46-42%. The True Vote Model  assumes that Trump had 54% of Independents.

Trump won the TVM by nearly 9 million votes (49.9-43.6%) with 356 EV.  He had 53.4% of the TVM 2-party vote  vs. 51.4% in Moody’s Average Turnout model.

Dem Turnout	Max		Average		Min
Trump	2-party	EV	2-party	EV	2-party	EV
Wtd Average	47.8%	259	51.4%	332	54.9%	387
AL	63.0%	9	65.9%	9	67.8%	9
AK	55.6%	3	60.4%	3	64.1%	3
AZ	53.6%	11	56.0%	11	59.7%	11
AR	56.8%	6	62.0%	6	64.2%	6
CA	36.1%		39.9%		44.1%
CO	45.3%		49.3%		54.8%	9
CT	41.9%		45.8%		51.2%	7
DE	41.8%		45.9%		50.8%	3
DC	6.0%		11.8%		18.9%
FL	50.5%	29	53.4%	29	58.3%	29
GA	52.3%	16	55.2%	16	58.9%	16
HI	35.3%		38.9%		42.3%
ID	61.1%	4	68.0%	4	71.3%	4
IL	40.2%		43.6%		47.1%
IN	56.8%	11	60.0%	11	61.7%	11
IA	51.5%	6	54.5%	6	57.1%	6
KS	55.0%	6	61.6%	6	64.4%	6
KY	61.3%	8	64.9%	8	66.6%	8
LA	57.5%	8	61.4%	8	63.9%	8
ME	42.9%		49.1%		55.5%	4
MD	36.0%		40.6%		45.1%
MA	36.0%		39.1%		44.3%
MI	47.3%		51.0%	16	55.5%	16
MN	45.7%		50.1%	10	53.0%	10
MS	59.8%	6	61.3%	6	63.0%	6
MO	53.3%	10	58.8%	10	62.1%	10
MT	58.9%	3	61.9%	3	64.2%	3
NE	59.1%	5	64.1%	5	67.6%	5
NV	44.4%		49.3%		54.6%	6
NH	46.9%		51.2%	4	58.8%	4
NJ	43.9%		46.8%		51.1%	14
NM	43.7%		47.0%		50.4%	5
NY	39.3%		41.9%		45.7%
NC	50.4%	15	54.0%	15	57.6%	15
ND	61.5%	3	66.7%	3	68.6%	3
OH	51.8%	18	55.2%	18	58.3%	18
OK	62.4%	7	68.9%	7	71.4%	7
OR	41.1%		45.7%		50.4%	7
PA	49.3%		51.8%	20	54.3%	20
RI	40.3%		44.0%		48.2%
SC	56.9%	9	59.3%	9	62.6%	9
SD	58.1%	3	63.7%	3	66.4%	3
TN	60.4%	11	63.8%	11	65.9%	11
TX	56.4%	38	59.0%	38	59.0%	38
UT	57.2%	6	64.3%	6	67.5%	6
VT	32.7%		37.2%		43.6%
VA	46.5%		50.7%	13	54.8%	13
WA	40.6%		44.5%		48.7%
WV	63.9%	5	67.9%	5	72.0%	5
WI	47.8%		51.3%	10	54.9%	10
WY	65.7%	3	72.8%	3	75.8%	3

2016 True Vote Model

	Gallup		NEP shares
Votes	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	32.0%	88.4%	9.8%	0.0%	1.8%
Rep	28.0%	6.0%	90.0%	4.0%	0.0%
Ind	40.0%	34.0% (adj)	54.0% (adj)	6.0%	4.0%
Shares	99.20%	43.6%	49.9%	3.5%	2.2%
Votes	135,535	59,526	68,227	4,809	2,973
Margin	8,700	182 EV	356 EV

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2019/president-election-model.pdf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yh0YkXBVctdJwt0_XHrpCC6f7K30oEz0Vr13MiU5qT4/edit#gid=1929995942

 

 

So now the desperate HRC calls Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard Russian assets?

Richard Charnin
Oct. 19, 2019

So now desperate HRC calls Jill Stein and Tulsi Gabbard Russian assets? And the MSM still want us to believe that she would not be so corrupt as to try and steal both the primary and general election? And that she won the popular vote by 2.8 million RECORDED votes? Yet they call me a conspiracy theorist when I provide mathematical analysis which indicates that Trump won in a landslide.

Consider third party votes.

1) Jill Stein had 1.45 million RECORDED votes (1.07%), but she probably had at least 3 million true votes, of which 1.5 million were stolen by HRC. So Clinton’s 2.8 million RECORDED margin is reduced to 1.3 million.

2) Assuming Johnson’s RECORDED vote (4.48 million,3.29%) would have gone to Trump, then he would have had a 3.2 million margin (1.5+4.5 -2.8 RECORDED) if Johnson did not run.

3) The 3rd party adjustments do not include additional fraud committed by the DNC in 2016. This is just one indication that Trump is headed for an even bigger landslide in 2020.

https://www.newsweek.com/rep-tulsi-gabbard-has-harsh-words-hillary-clinton-you-queen-warmongers-embodiment-1466382?

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2019/10/15/exposing-the-fox-news-impeachment-poll-scam-the-msm-always-over-weights-democrat-party-id/

 

Exposing the Fox News Impeachment Poll Scam: The MSM always over-weights Democrat Party-ID

Richard Charnin
Updated: Oct. 17, 2019

A Fox News poll  said 51% of voters were in favor of Trump’s impeachment and removal from office, while 40% did not want him impeached.

Princeton, New Jersey, pollster Braun Research, which conducted the survey, noted that 48% of its respondents were Democrats. https://nypost.com/2019/10/12/fox-news-pollster-braun-research-misrepresented-impeachment-poll-analysis/

But the latest Gallup Voter Affiliation survey indicates a 31% Democrat, 29% Republican, 38% Independent electorate split. With this change, 38.7% want Trump impeached while 50.4% are opposed.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Fox……….Approve Oppose
Rep 22%………4.0% 87.0%
Dem 48%……87.0% 4.0%
Ind 30%……..27.9% 63.1%
Poll………….51.0% 40.0%

Gallup Voter Affiliation
Gallup……Approve Oppose
Rep 29%………4.0% 87.0%
Dem 31%……87.0% 4.0%
Ind 38%……..27.9% 63.1%
Adjusted…..38.7% 50.4%