STATES OFFERING DRIVER’S LICENSES TO UNAUTHORIZED IMMIGRANTS

Richard Charnin

Feb. 17, 2019

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From Q: It’s very simple – w/o the illegal vote D’s lose.
Previous illegal imm high pop v D win by county provided.
[Example 2]

Why do D’s push for illegals to obtain a driver’s license?
Does having a DL make it easier to vote?

This brief summarizes state legislation authorizing driver’s licenses or authorization cards for unauthorized immigrants (not to be used for federal identification purposes) and examples of limits or exceptions for legal immigrants’ licenses.

http://www.ncsl.org/…/states-offering-driver-s-licenses-to-…

What states provide DL’s to illegals?
What checks are in place within each of the ‘DL granted states’ to prevent 2x-3x-4x-5x voting?

Compare v. 2016 Presidential election results.
What do you notice?
Do you believe in coincidences?
Memes are important.
#FactsMatter
Q

Total…………..Clinton…………………Trump

136,216,677 65,719,398 48.25% 62,889,892 46.17%

DL states

34,675,682 19,700,670 56.81% 12,439,441 35.87%

Non DL

101,540,995 46,018,728 45.32% 50,450,451 49.68%

True Vote Model https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1672204415

 

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Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

Richard Charnin
Feb 7, 2019

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Did CBS and CNN low-ball Trump’s Democratic SOTU viewers and approval?

According to CBS and CNN, 76% of  viewers approved of Trump’s SOTU. But the percentage of Democratic viewers was very low considering that CBS and CNN viewers are heavily Democratic.  Trump must have done much better among Democratic viewers than indicated in each poll and may have had over 80% total approval.

On CBS, Republican viewers (44%) outnumbered Democrats (25%) and Independents (31%) with 30% of Dems approving, 97% of Repubs and 82% of Independents. One would expect that CBS viewers would be overwhelmingly Democrats.

Assume CBS viewers were Dem 60%, Rep 20%, Ind 20%. Then to match Trump’s total 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 86%.  This is plausible.

Assume CBS viewers represented Gallup national voter affiliation (34% Dem, 25% Rep, 41% Ind). Then to match Trump’s 76% approval, estimated Dem approval is 56%, Rep 97%, Ind 80%.

On CNN, Dem approval is 36%, Rep 87%, Ind 57%. Then to match 76% Trump approval, CNN viewers must have been: Dem 15%, Rep 75%, Ind 10%. This is not plausible.

Assume CNN viewers were Dem 45%, Rep 30%, Ind 25% with  Dem approval 66%, Rep 97%, Ind 87%. Then Trump had 81% total approval. This is plausible.

CBS poll Pct Approv
Dem………25% 30% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 25% Dem viewers?
Rep……….44% 97%
Ind………..31% 82%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS1……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 66% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 76%

CBS2……. Pct Approv
Dem……. 60% 75% < 60% Dem is plausible
Rep……… 20% 97%
Ind………. 20% 86%
Total…….100% 82%   TRUMP 82% TOTAL APPROVAL

Gallup……Pct Approv
Dem………34% 56%
Rep……….25% 97%
Ind………..41% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN poll.. Pct Approv
Dem………15% 36% < NOT PLAUSIBLE. Only 15% Dem viewers?
Rep………..75% 87%
Ind…………10% 57% Only 10% Ind?
Total…….100% 76%

CNN1….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 30% 60% < only 30% Dem viewers?
Rep…….. 30% 87%
Ind……… 40% 80%
Total…….100% 76%

CNN2….. Pct Approv
Dem……. 45% 66% <plausible
Rep…….. 30% 97%
Ind……… 25% 87%
Total…….100% 81%  TRUMP 81% TOTAL APPROVAL

https://www.vox.com/2019/2/6/18213682/state-of-the-union-approval-ratings-polls

 

2016 Census Race Demographic & National Exit Poll indicates Fraud

Richard Charnin
Jan.27, 2019

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This analysis of the 2016 National Exit Poll Race cross tab and corresponding Vote Census indicates that Clinton did not win the true popular vote.

She won the recorded vote, which is never the same as the true vote. The recorded vote is often fraudulent. The National Exit Poll (NEP) is always forced to match the recorded vote, even if it requires adjusting the category percentage mix and corresponding vote shares. 

Recorded vote:  Clinton  48.25%- Trump 46.17%;  Margin 2.83 mil; Trump has 57% of whites. The NEP indicates Whites were 71% of the electorate.

The Census indicates Whites were 73.3% of the electorate (0.4% MoE). Making just this change to the NEP and keeping vote shares constant, Trump wins by 703,000.

Sensitivity Analysis (assume Whites 73.3% of the electorate)
1. Trump 57% of whites+21% other (black, hispanic, asian, other)
Trump 47.39%- Clinton 46.88%;   Margin 703,000

2. Trump 58% of whites+21% other 
Trump 48.12%-Clinton 46.14%; Margin 2.700 million

3. Trump 59% of whites+22% other 
Trump 49.12%-Clinton 45.14%; Margin 5.425 million

		National Exit
	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	71.0%	37.0%	57.0%	6.0%
Non-white	29.0%	74.0%	21.0%	5.0%	Clinton Margin
Calc	100.0%	47.73%	46.56%	5.71%	1.17%
	136,216	65,016	63,422	7,778	1,594
	Recorded	48.25%	46.17%	5.70%	2.08%
	136,216	65,724	62,891	7,764	2,833

……

	Census	National Exit Poll
	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	73.31%	37.0%	57.0%	6.0%
Non-white	26.69%	74.0%	21.0%	5.0%	Trump Margin
Calc	100.00%	46.88%	47.39%	5.73%	0.52%
	136,216	63,852	64,555	7,809	703
	Recorded	48.25%	46.17%	5.70%	2.08%
	136,216	65,724	62,891	7,764	2,833

Sensitivity Analysis

	Trump %	White
Trump %	57.0%	58.0%	59.0%	60.0%	61.0%
Non-white			Trump
24.0%	48.19%	48.93%	49.66%	50.39%	51.12%
23.0%	47.93%	48.66%	49.39%	50.12%	50.86%
22.0%	47.66%	48.39%	49.12%	49.86%	50.59%
21.0%	47.39%	48.12%	48.86%	49.59%	50.32%
20.0%	47.12%	47.86%	48.59%	49.32%	50.06%
			Clinton
24.0%	46.07%	45.34%	44.61%	43.88%	43.14%
23.0%	46.34%	45.61%	44.88%	44.14%	43.41%
22.0%	46.61%	45.88%	45.14%	44.41%	43.68%
21.0%	46.88%	46.14%	45.41%	44.68%	43.94%
20.0%	47.14%	46.41%	45.68%	44.94%	44.21%
			Trump margin
24.0%	2,885	4,882	6,879	8,876	10,873
23.0%	2,158	4,155	6,152	8,149	10,146
22.0%	1,430	3,428	5,425	7,422	9,419
21.0%	703	2,700	4,698	6,695	8,692
20.0%	-24	1,973	3,971	5,968	7,965

		Census	NEP
Census	2016	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	100,849	73.31%	37%	57%	6%
Black	17,119	12.44%	89%	8%	3%
Latino	12,682	9.22%	66%	28%	6%
Asian	5,049	3.67%	65%	27%	8%
Other	1,843	1.34%	56%	36%	8%
Calc	137,567	100.0%	47.42%	46.84%	5.73%
			65,234	64,431	7,877
		Margin	803

		National Exit Poll
NEP	Pct	Clinton	Trump	Other
White	71.0%	37%	57%	6%
Black	12.0%	89%	8%	3%
Latino	11.0%	66%	28%	6%
Asian	4.0%	65%	27%	8%
Other	2.0%	56%	36%	8%	Clinton Margin
Calc	100.00%	47.93%	46.31%	5.76%	1.62%
	136,216	65,288	63,082	7,846	2,207
	Recorded	48.25%	46.17%	5.70%	2.08%
	136,216	65,724	62,891	7,764	2,833

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1447777586
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit#gid=1088655249
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

Other adjustments: True Vote Sensitivity
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1R9Y3ae2uyW8SUxVUnnOt9ZyvheAxa0fAhesAw_nhciM/edit?fbclid=IwAR3x0INVIU5VkxsAhSG4IU3JonEc0DOThwK2iwBIoQVx92ld6feg4DM1SfA#gid=1672204415

 

2018 House Election: Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House

Richard Charnin
Jan. 20, 2019

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Nate Silver calculated that the Dems needed a 5.6% popular vote margin to win the House (218-217). https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

The Dems won by 8% (53.1-45.1%, 8.9 million recorded votes) a 235-200 seat margin. 

But the Dems won 32 of 38 tossups- a 1 in 100,000 probability, an indicator of fraud. Thirty-three of the 38 tossups were held by Repubs. https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2018/11/11/2018-house-probability-analysis-indicates-fraud/

Rasmussen was the only pollster to project a Repub win: 46-45%.  https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

The National Generic Exit Poll was forced to closely match the recorded vote. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit#gid=210218497

2018 NEP	Party ID	Republicans	Democrats	Other
Republicans	33%	94%	6%	0
Democrats	37%	4%	95%	1%
Independents	30%	42%	54%	4%
Calc share	100%	45.10%	53.33%	1.57%
Calc vote	111,478,885	50,276,977	59,451,689	1,750,218
Popular vote	111,835,736	50,449,312	59,379,804	2,006,620
Popular share	100%	45.10%	53.10%	1.80%
	House	201	234

Assuming Silver’s analysis,  a Dem popular vote margin under 5.6% would result in the Repubs winning the House. For example, if the Repubs had 47% of Independents, keeping other NEP percentages constant, the  Dems would have a 51.8-46.6% win (5.2% margin, 5.6 million votes) but the Repubs would win the House.

Generic	Party-ID	Rep	Dem	Other
Rep	33%	94%	6%	0%
Dem	37%	4%	95%	1%
Ind	30%	47%	49%	4%
	Share	46.60%	51.83%	1.57%
	Votes	51,408	57,177	1,732

A 1% gain/loss in margin results in a gain/loss of approximately 7 seats =17/2.6. (17=235-218; 2.6= 8.2-5.6)

Dem Margin	Dem Seats
8.23%	235
7.36%	230
6.49%	225
5.63%	218
4.78%	215
3.93%	210
3.09%	205

 

 

 

AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Richard Charnin

Nov. 26, 2018

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AZ Senate vs Governor: a major discrepancy

Republican Governor Ducey won by 337,000 votes. Democrat Senator Sinema won by 56,000 votes.

McSally (R) led in early voting by 475k-365k (56.5-43.5%). Sinema needed 826k (55.6%) of 1486k votes on Election Day to match her 50.6% share.

In Maricopa County (Phoenix), McSally led in early voting by 302k-216k (58.3-41.7%) but Sinema won the county 659k-611k (51.9-48.1%) – a 134k vote(12.8%) decline from McSally’s early margin.

Exit polls are always forced to match the recorded vote. The recorded vote is never equal to the True Vote. Check Party ID and the vote shares

Did McSally win the True Vote? I smell a rat.

National Exit Poll https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/national-results Dems win 53.3-45.1% (9.2 million votes)

Gov Exit Poll -Party ID https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona Ducey (R) wins by 337,000 votes

Senate Exit Poll -Party ID https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/arizona/senate Sinema (D) wins by 56,000 votes

True Vote estimate 1 Turnout based on voter registration and plausible vote shares. McSally wins by 65,000 votes.

True Vote estimate 2 Turnout based on Exit Poll Party ID and plausible vote shares. McSally wins by 130,000 votes.

Sensitivity Analysis McSally vote share, margins and win probability scenarios.

Early ballots GOP led by 475,000-365,000 votes (53.3-44.5%). Sinema needed 826,000 (55.6%) of 1,486,000 Election Day ballots to match the recorded vote.

NEP	Party ID	Democrats	Republicans	Other
Dem	37%	95%	4%	1%
Rep	33%	6%	94%	0
Ind	30%	54%	42%	4%
Total	100%	53.3%	45.1%	1.6%
	111,478	59,451	50,276	1,750

AZ Gov	Party ID	Garcia	Ducey	Other
Dem	31%	85%	14%	1%
Rep	38%	5%	95%	N/A
Ind	31%	45%	52%	3%
Match	100.0%	42.2%	56.6%	1.2%
Vote	2354	994	1331	29.18
	100.0%	41.8%	56.0%	2.2%
		Margin	337

Recorded	Reg	Sinema	McSally	Other
Dem	31%	97%	3%	0%
Rep	38%	12%	85%	3%
Ind	31%	50%	47%	3%
Total	100.0%	50.1%	47.8%	2.1%
Vote	2366	1186	1131	49
		Margin	-55
Sensitivity		McSally%Dem
McSally%Rep	3%	5%	7%	9%
		Vote Share
90%	49.7%	50.3%	50.9%	51.6%
89%	49.3%	49.9%	50.6%	51.2%
88%	48.9%	49.6%	50.2%	50.8%
87%	48.6%	49.2%	49.8%	50.4%
86%	48.2%	48.8%	49.4%	50.0%
85%	47.8% recorded	48.4%	49.0%	49.7%
		Margin (000)
90%	35	64	93	123
89%	17	46	75	105
88%	-1	28	57	87
87%	-19	10	40	69
86%	-37	-8	22	51
85%	-55 recorded	-26	4	33
		Win Prob
90%	64.3%	78.2%	88.3%	94.5%
89%	54.5%	70.0%	82.6%	91.1%
88%	44.4%	60.7%	75.3%	86.4%
87%	34.7%	50.8%	66.7%	80.1%
86%	26.0%	40.8%	57.1%	72.3%
85%	18.5% recorded	31.4%	47.1%	63.3%

Candidate	Recorded Vote	Pct	Early vote	Chg votes	Eday Votes Required
Sinema	1,191,100	50.6%	365,469	825,631	55.58%
McSally	1,135,200	47.6%	475,372	659,828	44.42%
Green (withdrawn)	57,442	1.8%	256,737	-199,295	-15.50%
Total votes	2,383,741	100.00%	1,097,578	1,286,163	100.00%

 McSally change in share  from early to final vote

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nB_kFzxGOEDQoNU6X1x7YyG6Mc3-Tb1S1r8TjmamwqQ/edit?fbclid=IwAR0o8HS47QrCZ81HFoEi3WxFDdrMwCQt9SFNK-tgZY-bvWp9sjE8J8Q-2BM#gid=130243910

County	Early share	Final share	Margin Change
Apache	36.3%	32.4%	-6,896
Cochise	58.9%	61.0%	6,808
Coconino	41.5%	36.0%	-12,292
Gila	64.9%	61.5%	1,863
Graham	66.5%	67.1%	2,206
Greenlee	40.7%	57.6%	567
LaPaz	73.6%	66.6%	671
Maricopa	58.3%	48.1%	-134,453
Mohave	74.2%	72.3%	17,831
Navajo	58.3%	53.0%	374
Pima	44.5%	42.4%	-37,720
Pinal	61.6%	56.1%	5,839
Santa Cruz	28.5%	29.3%	-3,466
Yavapai	70.0%	61.9%	10,463
Yuma	58.0%	53.2%	295
Total	56.5%	49.1%	-147,910

County Graph

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvZppVule4a_07xPErlSU-yVsOC-otyIakWvE9_9CQp5K55Vkqcefjsr0J9_EyRk5TyTWLHTccQeKR/pubchart?oid=672043111&format=interactive

 

17 House races: What if?

Richard Charnin
Nov. 23, 2018

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The Dems led by 203-194 on Election Day. They won 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability – and won the House by 235-200.

In the expected 50/50 split of the 38 tossups, the GOP would win 19 races and need just five additional seats to win the House. The math: 218 = 194+19+5.

Consider the 17 House tossups in the table below. The GOP led the 17-poll average by 1%, but the Dems won all 17 elections by 2%. The GOP led in 10 of the 17 tossups by 2.6%.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

	Dem Poll	Rep Poll	Margin	WinProb	Dem vote	Rep vote	Margin
Average	45.12	46.08	0.96	60.2%	50.36	48.39	1.98
2-party	49.47	50.53	1.05	–	51.00	49.00	2.00
CA25	44	48	4	85.7%	51.7	48.3	3.4
CA39	48	52	4	83.6%	50.5	49.5	1.0
CA45	46	50	4	84.6%	50.8	49.2	1.6
CA48	44	48	4	85.7%	52.0	48.0	4.0
MI8	45	48	3	78.5%	50.6	46.8	3.8
VA7	44	46	2	70.7%	50.3	48.5	1.8
NM2	44.5	46.3	1.8	68.6%	50.7	49.3	1.4
NJ3	44	45	1	60.8%	49.9	48.8	1.1
NY22	45	46	1	60.6%	50.3	49.7	0.6
TX7	45	46	1	60.6%	52.3	47.7	4.6
FL26	45	44	-1	39.2%	50.9	49.1	1.8
ME2	47	46	-1	39.6%	46.2	45.5	0.7
NC9	45	44	-1	39.2%	49.4	48.8	0.6
NY19	43	42	-1	38.7%	50.2	47.3	2.9
IA3	44.5	43	-1.5	33.7%	49.0	47.5	1.5
CA10	47	45	-2	29.7%	50.9	49.1	1.8
GA6	46	44	-2	29.3%	50.5	49.5	1.0

 

 

Repub California House races too close to call flipped to the Dems

Richard Charnin
Nov. 21, 2018

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The Repubs led by 4% in each of 4 districts which flipped to the Dems. The win probability was 85% in each of the districts (4.0% margin of error).

The Dems led by 203-194 seats on Election Day with 38 tossups. On Nov. 21, the Dems won the House by 235-200, winning 32 of 38 tossups – a 1 in 100,000 probability. An even 19-19 split of the  tossups would have resulted in a 222-213 Dem win. Then the GOP  would need just five additional seats to win the House.

……………….Poll………………Vote
……………Dem Rep ….. Dem Rep Margin
CA10……. 47 45  -2…… 50.9 49.1  -1.8
CA25……. 44 48   4…… 51.7 48.3  -3.4

CA39……. 48 52   4…… 50.5 49.5  -1.0
Cisneros vs. Kim (R) vote change from Election Day to 11/16

CA45……. 46 50   4…… 50.8 49.2  -1.6
CA48……. 44 48   4…… 52.0 48.0  -4.0 Rohrabacher (R) lost after 30 years in Congress

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

The Democrats had 300,000 more votes in Orange County Congressional races than for Democrat governor Gavin Newsom. https://web.archive.org/web/20181119210758/https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/voter-fraud-orange-county-numbers-dont-add-up-democrats-had-300000-more-votes-for-congressional-seats-than-for-governor/

Tip of the iceberg?
“Prosecutors have charged nine people with a dozen felony counts for allegedly offering money and cigarettes to homeless people on Skid Row in exchange for false and forged signatures on ballot petitions and voter registration forms, the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s Office announced today”.
http://da.co.la.ca.us/sites/default/files/press/112018_Nine_Charged_in_Large_Scale_Voter_Fraud_Scheme_on_Skid_Row.pdf