A Simple Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Richard Charnin

July 27, 2015

Charnin Website

Look inside the book: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Look inside the book:Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The model contains the following Obama 2-party vote shares:

2008- Unadjusted state exit polls and recorded votes

2012- True Vote Model shares (19 states were not exit polled) and recorded votes

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of the 200 simulation trials.

There are four input methods. Enter 1,2,3,4

2008: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes;

2012: 3- True vote, 4- recorded votes

In order to see the effects of changes, a blank column is inserted so that vote shares can be overridden.

The Total Electoral Vote is calculated using individual state projections. But the probability of winning each state is required in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. The state win probability is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE).

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes.

**Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)**

1- The theoretical expected EV is the sum of the 51 state win probabilities multiplied by the corresponding EVs.

2- The snapshot EV is just the sum of the projected electoral votes. It cam be misleading if state elections are close.

3- The mean EV is the average of the 200 simulation trials.

The three methods yield similar EVs.

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. In the True Vote Model he had 55.6% and 391 Electoral votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected 57% for Obama Likely Voter (LV) pre-election polls are a subset of RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election. Therefore they understate the projected Democratic vote. But political pundits assume LV polls are accurate; after all, they have an excellent track record in predicting the recorded vote. The LV polls used in the Election Model perfectly projected the recorded vote.

**But it has been proven beyond any doubt that the recorded votes are bogus and therefore so are the LV polls and the adjusted exit polls which are forced to match the recorded vote.
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The RV polls were confirmed by the post-election True Vote Model. The TVM is based on a feasible estimate of returning and new voters – and corresponding candidate vote shares.

**The TVM exactly matched the aggregate of the 2008 unadjusted state exit polls (58%,420 EV). If accurate, Obama won by 23 million votes, not the 9.5 million recorded. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%. If accurate, he won by an astounding 30 million votes.
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