Aug. 20, 2017
In 2012, National and state exit polls stopped asking the question: “Who did you vote for in the last election”. Exit polls are always forced a match to the recorded vote assuming there is zero fraud.
In the 2016 TVM, vote shares required to match the recorded vote are calculated.
The True Vote is estimated by adjusting prior election voter turnout while using the same vote shares used in the recorded vote match.
There are two sets of voter turnout assumptions. Vote shares are the same in each.
Case 1. Equal 95% turnout of returning Obama and Romney voters. Vote shares are calculated to automatically match the RECORDED vote.
Trump wins by 47.50-47.27% (10,821 votes)
Case 2. Base case TRUE VOTE
Estimate: 88% turnout of Obama, 95% turnout of Romney voters.
Trump wins by 48.75-45.97% (133,000 votes)
Assumption: 1 in 7 Bernie Sanders voters in the primary who voted for Obama did not return to vote in the presidential election as they were cheated in the primaries.
True Vote Sensitivity Analysis:
View a 25 scenario matrix for 5 Trump shares of returning Obama and 5 Trump shares of returning Romney voters. Trump wins 20 of 25 scenarios.
Worst case: Clinton wins by 48.6-46.1% (117,000 votes)
Base case: Trump wins by 48.7-46.0% (133,000 votes)
Best case: Trump wins by 50.5-44.3% (297,000 votes)
US 2016 True Vote Model