2016 Presidential Election: True Vote Model Preliminary Analysis

Richard Charnin

July 2, 2015

Look inside the book: Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

On Election Day 2012, Obama led by 50.34-48.07% (117 million votes).The National Exit Poll was published the day after the election. The bogus adjusted poll was forced to match Obama’s Election Day share: 50.30-47.76%. But there were 11.7 million Late votes in which Obama led: 60.2-39.8%. The surge in Obama’s late votes increased his final margin to 51.96-48.04%. But he actually had a 55% True Vote share. The systematic red-shift struck again. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdDQzLWJTdlppakNRNDlMakhhMGdGa0E#gid=29

It is way too early to make any predictions 16 months in advance. But we can run True Vote Model scenarios to see what it would take for Clinton, Bush and Sanders to win.

There are two calculation methods:

Method 1: returning voters based on the 2012 recorded vote- Obama had 51%.

This calculation assumes the election will be fraudulent

Method 2: returning voters based on the 2012 True Vote – Obama had 55%.

This calculation assumes that the election will be fraud-free.

There is no reason to believe the election will be fraud-free. The Democratic True Vote is always greater than the recorded vote.

Base case assumptions:

1) 2012 recorded vote shares.

2) 1.25% annual voter mortality (total 5%)

3) 95% turnout of living Obama and Romney voters.

For Clinton to win, she needs at least 90% of returning Obama voters, 7% of returning Romney voters and 55% of new voters.

**Sensitivity Analysis**

View four sensitivity analysis tables:

Clinton’s total vote share and margin for incremental changes in her shares of

1) New (51-59%) and returning Romney voters (5-9%)

Vote margins (in millions): Low: -0.12, Base: 3.5, High: 7.1

2) Returning Obama (88-92%) and Romney voters (5-9%)

Vote margins: Low: -1.1, Base: 3.5, High: 8.1

3) Clinton’s total vote share for (89-97%) Obama and (93-97%) Romney voter turnout

Vote margins: Low: -0.31, Base: 3.5, High: 5.5

4) Clinton’s popular vote win probability for (88-92%) of returning Obama voters and Romney (5-9%) voter turnout.

Win probabilities: Low: 20%, Base: 99%, High: 100%

For Sanders to win, he needs at least 50% of returning Obama voters, 20% of returning Romney voters and 40% of voters who did not vote in 2012 (recorded vote basis).

For Bush to win, it is a fair guess the media will report that he had 8% of returning Obama voters, 95% of returning Romney voters and 45% of voters who did not vote in 2012 (recorded vote basis).

To calculate what Bush really needs to win, we assume the 2012 True Vote as a basis.

He needs at least 17% of returning Obama voters, 92% of returning Romney voters and 47% of voters who did not vote in 2012..

View the Clinton, Sanders, Bush Win Scenarios at the bottom of this sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjAk1JUWDMyRdFpDLXZmWUFFLUFQSTVjWXM2ZGtsV0E&usp=sheets_web#gid=11

Track record:

https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/09/14/summary-2004-2012-election-forecast-1968-2012-true-vote-model/