A Simple 2000-2012 Electoral Vote Simulation Model

Richard Charnin

July 27, 2015

Updated: Oct.5, 2015

Links to website and blog posts

Look inside the books:

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts

Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy

The purpose of the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Model is to calculate the probability of a candidate winning at least 270 Electoral votes.

The Total EV is calculated as the sum of the products of the state win probabilities and corresponding electoral votes. The probability of winning each state is required in order to calculate the total probability of winning 270 EV. It is calculated using the projected two-party vote share and the margin of error (MoE) as input to the Normal distribution.

**Prob = NORMDIST (vote share, 0.5, MoE/1.96, true)**

**The probability of winning the election is the ratio of winning simulation trials (at least 270 EV) to the total number of simulation trials (200).
**

The model contains the following 2-party vote shares:

2000- Gore unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares

2004- Kerry unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares

2008- Obama Unadjusted state and national exit polls and recorded shares

2012- Obama state and national True Vote and recorded shares

(In 2012, 19 states were not exit polled)

Only ONE input (code 1-8) is required to indicate the election and method:

2000: 1- exit poll, 2- recorded votes

2004: 3- exit poll, 4- recorded votes

2008: 5- exit poll, 6- recorded votes

2012: 7- True vote, 8- recorded votes

In order to see the effects of changes to any of the 2004-2012 vote shares, a blank column is inserted so that actual vote shares can be overridden.

The Electoral Vote Histogram shows the results of 200 simulation trials.

There are three Total Electoral Vote calculations:

1-Theoretical EV: the product sum of state win probabilities and corresponding EVs.

2-Snapshot EV: sum of the projected electoral votes.

3-Mean EV: average EV of the all simulation trials.

In 2000, Gore defeated Bush by just 544,000 recorded votes. But he won the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate by 51.7-46.8%, Given that there were 105.4 million recorded votes, then based in the exit polls, he won by at least 5 million votes. There were 11 states in which he led the exit polls but flipped to Bush. If he had won just one, he would have won the election. If he won all 11, he would have had 408 electoral votes.

In 2004, Kerry had a 48.3% recorded share, 252 EV and lost by 3 million votes. But the unadjusted state and national exit polls indicate that he had 51-52% and won by 5-6 million votes with 349 EV. Seven states with 97 electoral votes flipped from Kerry in the exit polls to Bush in the recorded vote: CO,FL,IA,MO,NV,OH,VA. Kerry would have had 252+97=349 electoral votes had he won the states. The True Vote Model indicates that he had 53.5% and won by 10 million votes.

In the 2008 Election Model Obama’s 365.3 expected theoretical electoral vote was a near-perfect match to his recorded 365 EV. The simulation mean EV was 365.8 and the snapshot was 367. Obama’s won all 5000 election trials. His projected 53.1% share was a close match to the 52.9% recorded share.

**The 2008 TVM exactly matched Obama’s 58% share of the unadjusted state exit polls: he won by 23 million votes (not the 9.5 million recorded) and had 420 electoral votes. Obama led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents, 2% MoE) by 61-37%, an astounding 30 million vote margin.
**

The 2012 Monte Carlo Simulation Forecast exactly matched Obama’s 332 electoral votes and 51.0% total vote share. In the True Vote Model he had 55.6% and 391 Electoral votes.

Pre-election Registered Voter (RV) polls projected a 57% Obama share which closely matched the True Vote Model. Likely Voter (LV) polls are a subset of the RV polls. The LVs eliminate many new voters or others who did not vote in the prior election, cutting the projected Democratic share.

LV polls have an excellent track record in predicting the bogus recorded vote, as proven by the 2008 and 2012 Election Models. Final pre-election LV polls are used by the political pundits for their projections. After all, the media is paid to forecast the official recorded vote – not the true vote.