JFK Assassination: A Probability Analysis of Warren Commission Witness Unnatural Deaths

JFK Assassination: A Probability Analysis of Warren Commission Witness Unnatural Deaths

Richard Charnin
April 24, 2013
Updated: March 23, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.
JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

The following mathematical proof closes the book on those who still promote the fiction that Oswald was the lone assassin. The few remaining defenders of the Warren Commission’s Magic Bullet Theory have tried mightily for nearly 50 years to dismiss the mathematical significance of the mysterious deaths of JFK-related witnesses – starting with Ruby shooting Oswald. After all, a “clean-up” operation would only occur in a conspiracy. Of course, Warren Commission apologists claim that Oswald was a lone nut who acted alone.

The basis of the lone nut “argument” has been to claim that 1) the dead witnesses were of minor or no importance and that 2) the universe of total witnesses was ultimately unknowable. But they ignore the fact that the Warren Commission considered the witnesses important enough to have them testify.

The analysis focuses on the 31 unnatural and suspicious deaths of 552 Warren Commission witnesses from 1964-1978  At least 14 were officially ruled as unnatural: 4 homicides, 2 attempted murders, 6 accidents, 1 suicide, 1 unknown. But it is likely that least 21 deaths were unnatural, of which 17 were likely homicides. The deaths are among the 122 listed in the JFK witness spreadsheet database.

Warren Commission Witnesses (1964-78):
– 14 official ruled unnatural deaths
There were officially 3 homicides, 1 attempted murder, 4 suicides, 6 accidents, Given the 0.000316 weighted average mortality rate, the probability is P= 4.0E-07 (1 in 2.4 million).

– 21 unofficial actual unnatural deaths
There were an estimated 17 homicides, 2 accidents, 1 suicide,  1 unknown. Normally, 7 unnatural deaths would be expected. Given the 0.000132 weighted rate, the probability is P = 4.0E-20 = 1 in 20 million trillion

The “universe” of 552 Warren Commission witnesses is obviously a known quantity. Therefore, given the number, cause and timing of the unnatural and suspicious deaths (and corresponding mortality rates), we have all the information needed to calculate the probability that the deaths would occur in a given time interval.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 total witnesses, at least 21 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves.

A number of Warren Commission witnesses were sought in later investigations but never lived to testify. Three deaths officially ruled as suicides were likely homicides. Roger Craig supposedly shot himself after surviving several attempts on his life. George DeMorenschildt supposedly shot himself the same day he was called to give testimony at the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Albert Bogard supposedly committed suicide from carbon monoxide. Jack Ruby and Frank Martin had sudden cancers within one month after being diagnosed. Edward Voebel, a classmate of Oswald, died from a mysterious blood clot. Other natural deaths (heart attacks and natural causes) were suspicious.

This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: You must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

 

This graph shows the long-term trend in the U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the homicide rate was 5.4 per 100,000.

Deaths by Major Causes: 1960-2011 Source: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. The average homicide rate for 1964-1978 was 8.4 per 100,000.

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, the probability of at least 84 homicides is 8.55E-15 or 1 in 100 trillion.

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION. The actuary’s calculation is confirmed assuming 459 witnesses and 13 unnatural witness deaths, given the 0.000207 weighted unnatural mortality rate.

The Warren Commission witnesses are a subset of approximately 1400 material witnesses who were related in any way to the assassination (police, reporters, eyewitnesses, FBI officials, CIA contacts, anti-Castro Cubans, Ruby and Oswald contacts, etc.). A comprehensive analysis is provided in Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary.

Of the 126 witnesses in the JFK Cac spreadsheet/database, 80 deaths were ruled unnatural (homicides, suicides, accidents, unknown). The other 46 were highly suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc. Of the 126, 65 were sought in four investigations – and obviously relevant: 32 testified at the Warren Commission (1964), the others were sought by New Orleans D.A. Jim Garrison at the Clay Shaw trial (1967-69), the Church Senate Intelligence Committee (1975) and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (1977-79).

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature.

It is important to recognize that the average 1964-78 national 0.000084 homicide rate (1 in 12,150) was much lower than the 0.000594 accidental death rate (1 in 1,660) and the 0.000130 suicide rate (1 in 7,700). The ratio of actual unnatural deaths to the expected number is much lower than the ratio of actual homicides to the expected number.

Nationally, homicides comprised 10% of unnatural deaths. But at least 34 (43%) of the 80 JFK witness deaths ruled unnatural were homicides. In fact, if the analysis was restricted to homicides, the mathematical proof would be simpler and even more powerful. Statistical expectation indicates at least 80 homicides.

The probability of 84 homicides among 1400 witnesses is E-107. To put this in context, consider that there are 60 TRILLION TRILLION (6E25) hydrogen atoms in a quart of water, approximately 700,000 TRILLION (7E17) grains of sand on the earth and 300 BILLION TRILLION (3E23) stars in the universe.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

In this video, Mark Lane, famous author/investigator of several books on the assassination, interviews Penn Jones, an independent researcher of JFK witness deaths.

 

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination

Richard Charnin
April 18, 2013
Updated Aug.2, 2014

Click Reclaiming Science:The JFK Conspiracy to look inside the book.

JFK Blog Posts
JFK Calc Spreadsheet Database

Hit List: An In-Depth Investigation into the Mysterious Deaths of Witnesses to the JFK Assassination by Richard Belzer and David Wayne, is a unique and welcome addition to the massive trove of JFK Assassination literature.

There is no conjecture here, just the facts surrounding fifty mysterious witness deaths presented in an easy-to-read format. Warren Commission apologists are reduced to irrelevancy; the proof of conspiracy is overwhelming and beyond any doubt. The authors cite my probability analysis as background information.

Here are the graphs and probability calculations which prove a conspiracy: https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2013/10/14/jfk-witness-deaths-graphical-proof-of-a-conspiracy/

The 1973 film Executive Action depicted a conspiracy to assassinate JFK and revealed that an actuary engaged by the London Sunday Times calculated the probability of 18 material witnesses dying within three years of the JFK assassination as 1 in 100,000 TRILLION.

The actuary’s odds are confirmed assuming:459 witnesses and 0.000207 weighted total mortality rate.

In this video, Mark Lane, famous author/investigator of several books on the assassination, interviews Penn Jones, an independent researcher of JFK witness deaths.

Assuming the data and calculation methodology were essentially correct, then it was clear proof of a conspiracy and refuted the Warren Commission’s conclusion that Oswald was the lone assassin. A comprehensive probability analysis shows that the actuary’s odds were conservative. There were many more than 18 suspicious deaths.

The proof is in the post Executive Action: JFK Witness Deaths and the London Times Actuary which links to the JFK Witness Database Spreadsheet Model.

The probability analysis is straightforward; it is not a theoretical exercise. It is a mathematical proof of conspiracy based on factual data (552 Warren Commission witnesses, at least 20 unnatural deaths, corresponding mortality rates) and the Poisson probability formula. The numbers and probabilities speak for themselves. This is a challenge to those who still claim that the deaths do not prove a conspiracy: To substantiate your claim, you must refute the data (i.e., the Warren Commission witness list), the unnatural mortality rates and the use of the Poisson formula.

This is a sensitivity analysis of unnatural witness deaths.

There were approximately 1400 JFK-related witnesses. In 1964-1978, at least 78 were officially ruled unnatural (homicide, suicide, accidental, unknown). The others were suspicious heart attacks, sudden cancers, etc. Normally 17 unnatural deaths would be expected.

Some have questioned the relevance of the unnatural and suspicious witness deaths related to the assassination. Of the 122 witnesses in the database, 67 were sought or testified at the Warren Commission, the Clay Shaw trial, the Church Senate Committee, and the House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA). Thirteen testified or were sought in two of the investigations. Therefore, they were indisputably relevant.

The probability of exactly n deaths among N witnesses over T years given mortality rate R is calculated using the Poisson function: P (n) = Poisson (n, N*T*R, false)

The probability of at least n deaths is P (n) = 1- Poisson (n-1, N*T*R, true)

The probability of at least
19 UNNATURAL deaths within ONE year is E-30 (1 in a TRILLION TRILLION).
42 UNNATURAL deaths within THREE years is E-50 (ZERO).
78 UNNATURAL deaths within FIFTEEN years is E-62 (ZERO).

Assuming the JFK witness WEIGHTED unnatural rate, the probability of
20 UNNATURAL deaths among 552 Warren Commission witnesses is 1 in 1 TRILLION
46 UNNATURAL deaths among 1100 witnesses called by WC, Garrison, Senate, HSCA is ZERO.

The average national HOMICIDE rate in 1964-78 was 0.000084.
There were at least 34 officially ruled homicides.
P= E-31 = 1 in a million trillion trillion)

Warren Commission apologists have suggested that there were many more than 1400 material witnesses and therefore the probabilities are not valid – without providing a list. Even assuming 25,000 witnesses, then given the 0.000084 homicide rate, the probability is 1 in 38 billion of 25 homicides in the 3 years following the assassination. But how many of the suicides, accidents, heart attacks and sudden cancers were actually homicides? The probability would be much lower. So much for the bogus 25,000 witnesses argument.

This graph shows the long-term trend in U.S. homicide rate. Note that in 1963 the rate was approximately 6 per 100,000. The average rate from 1964-78 was 0.000084.

Warren Commission – 552 witnesses
In the 3 years following the assassination, there were at least 10 unnatural deaths. Applying the 0.000068 weighted unnatural rate, the probability is 1 in 12000 TRILLION – the same order of magnitude as the London Times actuary’s calculation. There were at least 20 unnatural deaths from 1964-78. Applying the 0.000138 weighted unnatural mortality rate, the probability is 1 in 500,000 TRILLION.

The following unnatural mortality rate table displays the cause of death, expected number of deaths among 1400 witnesses, actual number of deaths,mortality rate, and JFK witness vs. U.S. unnatural death weightings.


Cause.......... Exp Ruled Rate JFK U.S.
Homicide....... 1.77 34 0.000084 43% 10%
Suicide........ 2.73 16 0.000130 21% 16%
Accident.......12.47 24 0.000594 31% 73%
Unknown........ 0.21 04 0.000010 05% 01%
Total..........17.18 78 0.000818 100% 100%