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About Me

After having posting on various websites as “TruthIsAll” since 2002 (and getting banned in a few), I felt that it would be fun to create my own blog. I don’t expect that I will ban myself. And no one can accuse me of spamming. My website is richardcharnin.com . It links to my posts, spreadsheet models, various discussion forums, podcast interviews and articles by election activists.

I graduated from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. My first job was a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacturer (lunar module). I obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and an MS in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973).

In 1976, I moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank that was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978. When personal computers first became available in 1982, I converted many of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs to Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets – and years later to Excel.

As an independent software consultant, I specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations.

I never imagined that years later I would be posting election analyses on the Internet. After the 2000 fiasco, I was motivated to develop a robust forecast model. In July 2004 I began posting weekly election projections based on state and national pre-election polls.

In 2012, I shifted focus to the JFK assassination and created a spreadsheet database of material witness deaths. Many witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations died unnaturally. The probability is one in trillions – absolute mathematical proof of a conspiracy.

The corporate media and politicians avoid the subject of systemic election fraud like the plague. But unadjusted state and national exit polls have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The Democratic true share has consistently exceeded the official recorded share.

I have written two books proving systematic election fraud: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/my-book/

In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy. Of the 274 state presidential exit polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error (131 in favor of the Republicans). The probability is E-116. Just 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error. It is mathematical proof beyond any doubt of a conspiracy of systemic election fraud favoring the Republicans.

The 2004 Election Model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls. His EV win probability was 98%.

Following the election, I posted exit poll analyses on various election forums which sparked heated debates and attracted hundreds of viewers. Since 2004, my focus has been on developing election models to estimate the True Vote in presidential and congressional elections.

In 2008, I exactly forecast Obama’s recorded vote (365 EV, 53% vote share). The Monte Carlo simulation indicated he had a 100% EV win probability. But the True Vote Model indicated that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% vote share, exactly matching the unadjusted exit polls.

In 2012, the Election Model recorded vote forecast was once again on the money (332 EV, 51%). His EV win probability was 100%. But the TVM indicated that Obama had 391 EV and 55%. The National Election Pool (six corporate media giants) decided not to exit poll in 19 states. The 31 unadjusted exit polls have not been released.

 

19 responses to “About Me

  1. Renee Kovacs

    August 11, 2011 at 4:26 am

    Will you be commenting on the Wisconsin recall results, and how they compare to your forecasts?

     
  2. MalleusMaleficarum

    November 4, 2011 at 6:45 am

    In addition to your excellent papers for mathematicians, please, write a down-to-earth textbook for – say, the ninth grade reading level – sans mathematics.

     
  3. davidgmills

    June 7, 2012 at 3:54 am

    Will I get banned here?

     
  4. Victor Provenzano

    November 1, 2012 at 1:10 pm

    Richard, your piece on Roper’s raw exit poll data from 1988 to 2008 is quite chilling. Yet it strikes me that a slight change in your argument concerning the nature of this data might significantly improve the chances that your statistical reasoning will be more widely entertained in the future. Given that “fraud” is a more or less precise legal term, instead of using the omnibus term “fraud” to explain the rather glaring exit poll discrepancy, one might, for instance, distinguish between the issues of the number of “uncounted votes,” the number of legally & illegally “suppressed votes” (to the degree to which they can be merely a subset of the “uncounted votes”), & the number of “stolen votes” (whether they might be stolen by electronic or non-electronic means). It seems to me that all of these various categories of votes do not fall unambiguously under the legal rubric of the term “fraud.” If your argument were refined to reflect these kinds of distinctions, it might enable it to finally have a good bit more of the impact that it seems to deserve.

    Sincerely,

    Victor Provenzano

     
    • Tony L

      November 10, 2012 at 6:27 pm

      Interested in N Silver criticism. I prefer code in python or haskell or even
      shell script. OK for proprietary or closed, but like OPEN SOURCE. I am reading the Silver Book, covering predictions in many fields. Thanks, some
      do NOT use ‘spreadsheets’, Excel and some prefer STRICT functional programming like Haskell. Note: I am ‘not in politics’ and have no apparent conflict of interest. Preferably, standards of the ‘algorithms’
      should meet SSRN or even sciencedaily.com, but be ‘practical’ and not
      ‘arcane science.’

       
  5. Dylia

    November 18, 2012 at 2:18 am

    Richard, what a gem you are! Have you a comment on the recent letter released by Anonymous group as to the ORCA server disarmament on Election Day?

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 18, 2012 at 4:27 am

      Thank you, Dylia,

      Yes, I believe they did it. I hope they provide proof.

       
  6. Martin Truther

    December 18, 2012 at 2:11 am

    I am extremely excited about your work. I know that communicating results of statistical explorations is difficult. Have you considered the possibility of an animation to dramatize the basic concepts, discrepancies and red-shifts? If we could distill it to an animation with punch like Ben Cohen’s animation re: military spending as oreo cookies, we’d have a good shot at making people aware of it.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      December 18, 2012 at 11:48 am

      Martin,

      I have not thought of animation, although I have thought of a Powerpoint presentation – but have not done it.
      I just looked at the Cookie animation. Very good, but it’s notmy style. After the new year, I will look at creating a visual.

       
  7. The MUSEman

    August 13, 2013 at 9:55 pm

    Interesting website… I have a few questions:

    - Is there any example of an election which, when put through your analysis, would be considered “fair”?
    - In your opinion, would Voter ID, mandatory voting, elimination of early voting, extension of voting time for offshore military, elimination of same-day voter registration, or scheduling a “Voting Holiday” (eg: As in Greece, where everything is closed for 2 days except mandatory services and polling places) serve to help or hurt “fairness”?
    - To what effect does “voting machine tampering” affect the “red-state” bias, as technicians who maintain voting machines are typically Union, Democrat-leaning personnel?
    - Any gauge on how Liberals, Democrats, and/or Progressives view your model and analysis? I would think they would be screaming your results from every rooftop, and yet I found your site serendipitously through a Google search.

    Thanks for your work, and regards,

     
    • Richard Charnin

      August 15, 2013 at 1:51 pm

      1. Elections in Oregon and Washington state. Oregon has mandatory random county hand recounts. I document everything in my two books on Election Fraud.

      2. These would generally have a negative effect in limiting the voter turnout. So-called voter fraud is virtually non-existent. Check the statistical studies. Read “The Myth of Voter Fraud” by Lorraine Minnite. Of course there are a handful of voters who have committed fraud – like Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh.

      3. “Voting machine tampering” is systemic in all states, red and blue. Red states to pad the popular vote, Blue states to pick up electoral votes. Voting machines are pre-programmed by right wing companies. Election officials and technicians are not typically union Democrats, they are a mix of Democrats and Republicans. In any case, technicians basically just administer the machine set-up, but are not programmers. Voting machine manufacturing personnel do the coding and make any required last-minute”patches” – like in Ohio.

      4. Activists who are interested in a solid, unbiased mathematical analysis appreciate the models although very few actually understand the details and actually run them. If you would care to do so, check out the models linked from by blog. They are google doc spreadsheets and are public. Some allow for user input.

      In conclusion, I have come to the conclusion that we do not have a functioning democracy. Both parties are in collusion to perpetuate the myth of a viable, fair, open election process. The Democrats would win every election if they were fair, given the growth in minority voters. But they let the GOP win elections to keep the myth of a 50/50 electorate alive. That’s why they do not call for verifiable voting.

      The National Election Pool eliminated exit polls in 19 states in the last election. That why I probably will no longer forecast or calculate the True Vote in future elections. Systemic election fraud has been proven mathematically.

      My forecasting track record has been right on target. The True Vote Model matched the unadjusted exit polls in 2004. It exactly forecast Obama’s 2008 recorded popular and electoral vote (365) and 2012 (332). Of course, his True Vote was much higher in both elections. The True Vote Model exactly matched his 58.0% unadjusted state exit poll aggregate in 2008. In 2012, his True Vote was 55% in 2012. The NEP conducted just 31 state exit polls in 2012. None have been released. But we still would need all 50 state polls to compare the weighted average exit poll share to the True Vote Model.

      Thanks for your interest.

       
  8. N. S.

    July 16, 2014 at 7:14 am

    I love your work and have been reading it extensively, and we are in the middle of a long criminal investigation here in Hidalgo County, Texas that I am afraid isn’t going to get to the bottom of all this.

    Who specializes in looking at ES&S irregularities?

    Or voting data?

    I have a bunch of audit log files, and other materials, and I suspect ballot stuffing has occurred. And continues to occur. The best example I can find is in 2008.

    Where is the proper venue to discuss that?

    https://docs.google.com/folderview?id=0B6DNaPzWFilVdnpYalNPTTdwVzA&usp=docslist_api#

    Particularly in the 8PTXHIDA and 8PTXHIDASUM spread sheets you will notice some races are missing the COUNTY1 designation…

    And further, Democrat turnout it 645%.

    There appears to be about 601 “extra” votes.

    Any thoughts?

     

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