After having posting on various websites as “TruthIsAll” since 2002 (and getting banned in a few), I felt that it would be fun to create my own blog. I don’t expect that I will ban myself. And no one can accuse me of spamming. My website is richardcharnin.com . It links to my posts, spreadsheet models, various discussion forums, podcast interviews and articles by election activists.
I graduated from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. My first job was a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation, a major defense/aerospace manufacturer (lunar module). I obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics (Adelphi University, 1969) and an MS in Operations Research (Polytechnic Institute of NY, 1973).
In 1976, I moved on to Wall Street as manager/developer of corporate finance quantitative applications for White Weld & Co, an old-line investment bank that was acquired by Merrill Lynch in 1978. When personal computers first became available in 1982, I converted many of the mainframe FORTRAN application programs to Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheets – and years later to Excel.
As an independent software consultant, I specialized in quantitative applications development for major domestic and foreign financial institutions, investment firms and industrial corporations.
I never imagined that years later I would be posting election analyses on the Internet. After the 2000 fiasco, I was motivated to develop a robust forecast model. In July 2004 I began posting weekly election projections based on state and national pre-election polls.
In 2012, I shifted focus to the JFK assassination and created a spreadsheet database of material witness deaths. Many witnesses who were called to testify in four investigations died unnaturally. The probability is one in trillions – absolute mathematical proof of a conspiracy.
The corporate media and politicians avoid the subject of systemic election fraud like the plague. But unadjusted state and national exit polls have been confirmed by the True Vote Model. The Democratic true share has consistently exceeded the official recorded share.
I have written two books proving systematic election fraud: http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/my-book/
In the 1988-2008 presidential elections, the Democrats won the exit polls by 52-42%; they won the recorded vote by just 48-46%, an 8% discrepancy. Of the 274 state presidential exit polls, 135 exceeded the margin of error (131 in favor of the Republicans). The probability is E-116. Just 14 of the 274 exit polls would be expected to exceed the margin of error. It is mathematical proof beyond any doubt of a conspiracy of systemic election fraud favoring the Republicans.
The 2004 Election Model was the first to use Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. The final projection had Kerry winning 337 electoral votes and 51.8% of the two-party vote, closely matching the unadjusted exit polls. His EV win probability was 98%.
Following the election, I posted exit poll analyses on various election forums which sparked heated debates and attracted hundreds of viewers. Since 2004, my focus has been on developing election models to estimate the True Vote in presidential and congressional elections.
In 2008, I exactly forecast Obama’s recorded vote (365 EV, 53% vote share). The Monte Carlo simulation indicated he had a 100% EV win probability. But the True Vote Model indicated that Obama had 420 EV and a 58% vote share, exactly matching the unadjusted exit polls.
In 2012, the Election Model recorded vote forecast was once again on the money (332 EV, 51%). His EV win probability was 100%. But the TVM indicated that Obama had 391 EV and 55%. The National Election Pool (six corporate media giants) decided not to exit poll in 19 states. The 31 unadjusted exit polls have not been released.