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Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

21 Nov

Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

Richard Charnin
Updated: June 13, 2014

Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit

First there was the 2000 Judicial Coup and then the long-running media con that Bush really did win. Let’s take another look. Al Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 MILLION VOTE MARGIN compared to the 540,000 recorded. There were nearly 6 MILLION UNCOUNTED votes – the great majority were Gore votes.

Twelve states flipped from Gore in the exit poll to Bush in the recorded vote: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA. Gore would have won the election if he captured just one of the states. Democracy died in 2000.

Officially, Bush won Florida by 537 recorded votes. But it was not even close. Gore won the unadjusted Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by 53.4-43.6%. Given the 3.0% exit poll margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Gore won FL and a 97.5% probability that he won by at least 200,000 votes.

There were 185,000 uncounted ballots: 110,000 over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for Gore were marked for Buchanan in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County. The recount was aborted by 5 Republicans on the Supreme Court. But Florida was not unique. The 9.8% margin discrepancy was exceeded in 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. He won the True Vote by 50.9-45.3% assuming he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

Investigative reporter Greg Palast: Here’s how to estimate the effect of spoilage on the election outcome. For fun, let’s take Florida 2000. We know from comparison of census tracts to precincts that 54% of the 179,855 ballots spoiled were cast by African-American voters, that is, 97,000 of the total.

Every poll put the Black vote in Florida for Al Gore at over 90%. Reasonably assuming “spoiled” ballots matched the typical racial preferences, Gore lost more than 87,000 votes in the spoilage pile. Less than 10% of the African-American population voted for Mr. Bush, i.e. Bush lost no more than 10,000 votes to spoilage. The net effect: Gore had a plurality of at least 77,000 within the uncounted ballots cast by Black citizens.

Note that Palast’s estimate of spoiled ballots does not include thousands of absentee, provisional or stuffed ballots. Or the unknown number of Gore votes dropped or switched to Bush in Cyberspace.

The 2000 election theft was a prologue of what was to come.

In 2004 Kerry won the unadjusted exit polls by 51.1-47.6% and the True Vote Model by 10 million votes with 53.6%. But he had just a 48.3% recorded share in losing by 3.0 million votes. It was a 13 million margin vote flip. The margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 15 states: VT DE AK CT SC VA NJ HI NH MS PA UT MN NM OH

In 2008 Obama won the unadjusted state exit polls by 58.0-40.3% with a 23 million vote margin – exactly matching the True Vote Model. the exit poll/vote margin discrepancy exceeded 10% in 28 states. Obama had a 52.9% recorded share, officially winning by 9.5 million votes.

State and national exit poll discrepancies are calculated in two ways:

1) The exit pollsters provide the average Within Precinct Error (WPE) for each state. But that implies that the exit poll was in error, not the recorded vote, so a better term is Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). The WPD is the difference between the average exit poll precinct margin and the average precinct recorded vote margin.

2) The unadjusted exit poll discrepancy is the difference between the actual total exit poll respondent margin and the total recorded vote margin.

In 2004, according to the weighted aggregate of the state unadjusted exit polls, Kerry won nationally by 51.1-47.6%. His margin based on the average WPD was 52.0-47.0%.

Kerry won the NY recorded vote by 58.4-40.1%, an 18.3% margin. The exit pollsters indicated a 12.2% WPD, a 30.5% (64.5-34.0%) exit poll margin. In the unadjusted exit poll, Kerry had 901 (62.05%), Bush 525 (36.15%), Other 26 (1.80%) – a 25.9% unadjusted exit poll margin. There were 1452 respondents, a 3.2% margin of error.

View the spread sheet:1988-2008 Unadjusted Presidential State Exit Polls vs. Recorded Votes. The data source is the Roper site.

 
15 Comments

Posted by on November 21, 2011 in 2000 Election, Election Myths

 

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15 responses to “Unadjusted State Exit Polls Indicate that Al Gore won a mini-landslide in 2000

  1. Karen Boerboom

    November 21, 2011 at 10:47 pm

    The truth proven at last; Gores divorced, Al noted for global warming video/info with nobel prize, but what now? Is it all coming apart, that is, the discrepency between some of the .01% and the rest of us? Here in the US and other countries we are faced with an additional 5.1 billion people added to the earth in 100 years, up from 1910 of 1.9 billion. Which resources will we run out of
    first, second, third, etc.? Help!!! Do we need something like was in “Star Trek” to take us to another planet in another solar system before we destroy ourselves? Help!!!

    Karen/WI/USA

     
  2. Nigel j Watson

    November 24, 2011 at 2:58 pm

    Richard, really admire your work. I just wish we all had an internet version of the people’s microphone. The MSM’s cover-up of anything that might ‘upset’ the wrong person or cost them an advertiser is not to be believed (not that they’ve ever been the soul of probity).

    Thanx, NjW

     
    • Richard Charnin

      November 24, 2011 at 5:27 pm

      Nigel:

      Thanks for your support. We must keep pounding the moribund media and all the “experts” on their misinformation and bogus “analysis”. It is just knee-jerk propaganda that has destroyed our democracy by dumbing down the populace.

      We need to piggy-back on to the Occupy movement. It’s amazing that even educated young protesters are unaware of the extent of election fraud.

      Richard

       
  3. revidaputri

    October 13, 2014 at 8:15 am

    Thanks for one’s marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed reading it, you’re a great author.
    I will make sure to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back
    sometime soon. I want to encourage you to continue your great writing, have a nice weekend!

     
  4. Marionumber1

    June 3, 2016 at 6:49 pm

    How does the extreme margin of victory for Gore in the exit polls match with studies of the uncounted votes (http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/31/politics/bush-gore-2000-election-results-studies/), which found Gore would only win narrowly? Is it likely that the counted votes were corrupted by the electronic voting machines?

     
  5. Cliff Arnebeck

    June 28, 2016 at 2:10 pm

    Fantastic, Richard!

     
    • georgeklees

      June 28, 2016 at 4:17 pm

      Hello, Mr. Arnebeck. Thanks for all the work you’ve done defending election integrity. I had a couple questions about the 2016 primary RICO lawsuit, if you don’t mind:

      1) I’ve heard the announcement that it’ll be filed this week. Is that correct?
      2) If you manage to get Edison to release its data, what’s next? Do you use it to find which precincts had irregularities, and then sue for audits in those places?
      3) Even if the Dem convention happens before the lawsuit goes through, will it still continue?

       
  6. Troy Rapp

    August 8, 2016 at 8:08 am

    Where did you find the stat about the percentage of registered democrats in FL who voted Bush? That’s gold, and I’d like to be able to reference it when using it to refute the “spoiler” argument in this election cycle.

     
    • Richard Charnin

      August 8, 2016 at 8:43 am

      Where did you see that stat? I don’t have it.
      The exit poll data is from the Roper database at UConn.

      From Roper, the 2004 (43%) and 2008 (46%) National Exit Poll turnout of returning Bush voters (as a percent of the total electorate) were both mathematically impossible. They required 110% of living Bush 2000 voters and 103% of living Bush 2004 voters.

      In 2000, Bush won Florida by 537 recorded votes. But it was not even close. Gore won the unadjusted Florida exit poll (1816 respondents) by 53.4-43.6%. Given the 3.0% exit poll margin of error (including a 30% cluster effect), there is a 99.9% probability that Gore won FL and a 97.5% probability that he won by at least 200,000 votes.

      There were 185,000 uncounted ballots: 110,000 over-punched and 75,000 under-punched. In addition, thousands of “butterfly” ballots meant for Gore were marked for Buchanan in heavily Democratic Palm Beach County. The recount was aborted by 5 Republicans on the Supreme Court. But Florida was not unique. The 9.8% margin discrepancy was exceeded in 10 states: TX AL NC TN GA AR ID MD SC FL

      The True Vote Model is based on 1996 and 2000 votes cast. It was a close match to Gore’s exit poll share. He won the True Vote by 50.9-45.3% assuming he had 75% of 8 million returning 1996 voters whose ballots were uncounted and 75% of 6 million uncounted votes in 2000.

       
  7. sffreeman

    August 31, 2016 at 5:43 pm

    Hi Richard: Great work … as always a preternatural effort. The link to the Roper site, however, is broken. Is there a new link? If not, can you confirm your data on this? I had the unadjusted margin in Florida 2000 as 7.3% based on a Mitofsky report. You have the margin as 9.8%. What is the nature of the data you have? Are these actual Roper numbers, or did you have to do any data transformations?

    Steve

     
    • Richard Charnin

      August 31, 2016 at 5:58 pm

      Hi Steve, I used the raw exit poll numbers from Roper.
      I don’t have a link.
      I did the manual data download in 2010 for 1988-2008 state by state.
      274 state exit polls, 135 exceeding the MoE, 131 shifting to the GOP.
      All of that work, all of the math probabilities.
      Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
      A total of 232 polls shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 42 shifted to the Democrat. Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been an equal shift. The Binomial distribution is used to calculate that probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). E-35 is scientific notation for 35 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

      The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. The Margin of Error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Only 14 would normally be expected. Of the 135, 131 moved in favor of the Republicans, 4 to the Democrat.
      The probability P that 131 of 274 would red-shift beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
      P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

      The 274 exit polls comprise the ultimate Smoking Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.
      It’s been six years. I have posted on this over and over again.
      When the hell are people going to take notice?
      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWaKPDUolqbN7_od8sSTNMRObfUidlVPRBxeyyirbLM/edit#gid=4

      https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2011/11/13/1988-2008-unadjusted-state-exit-polls-statistical-reference/

       

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JFK Conspiracy and Systemic Election Fraud Analysis

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