To Believe that Obama Won in 2008 by 9.5 Million Votes with a 52.87% Share, You Must Believe …
Richard Charnin (TruthIsAll)
Dec. 16, 2011
Track Record:2004-2012 Forecast and True Vote Models https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRZkaZQuKTmmd_H0xMAnpvSJlsr3DieqBdwMoztgHJA/edit
You must believe that the Final 2008 National Exit Poll (NEP) is correct since it matched the recorded vote.
The Final (adjusted) 2008 National Exit Poll
1. indicated that 46% (60.5 million) of the 131.4 million who voted in 2008 were returning Bush voters and 37% (48.6 million) were Kerry voters.
2. required a 103% turnout of living Bush 2004 voters to match the 2008 recorded vote.
3. indicated 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters.
4. implied that Bush won in 2004 by 52.9-42.5%. The recorded vote was 50.7-48.3%.
But Kerry won the 2004 unadjusted state exit polls (76,000 sample) by 51.1-47.6%.
He won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 sample) by 51.7-47.0%.
You must believe that the 2008 unadjusted state and national exit polls were wrong…
6. Obama won the state exit polls (81,388 sample) by 58.0-40.5% – a 23 million margin.
7. Obama won the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 sample) by 61-37%.
8. 4,178 were asked how they voted in 2004: 43.4% said Kerry, 38.6% Bush.
9. Obama’s 58.0% share was confirmed by the NEP vote shares and 43.4/38.6% mix .
You must believe the True Vote Model TVM) was wrong even though…
10. The TVM was the third confirmation of Obama’s 58.0% exit poll share.
11. It used Final 2008 NEP vote shares and a realistic, plausible return voter mix (based on Kerry’s True Vote) and not the impossible Final NEP mix.
12. The sensitivity analysis shows that Obama won the worst case scenario by 19.5 million votes with a 56.7% share (he had 67% of new voters and 15% of returning Bush voters). Obama had a 58.0% True Vote share in the most-likely base case scenario based on his 72% share of new voters and 17% share of returning Bush voters.
You must believe there is nothing suspicious about the following…
13. Obama had 52.3% of 121 million votes counted on Election Day and 59.2% of the final 10 million late (paper ballot) votes recorded after Election Day.
14. According to the 2008 NEP, returning 2004 third-party voters comprised 5.2 million (4%) of the electorate. But only 1.2 million third-party votes were recorded in 2004. Therefore, third party votes were uncounted and/or switched.
15. In the unadjusted 2008 NEP subsample, 1,815 (43.4%) said they voted for Kerry and 1,614 (38.6%) said they voted for Bush. But to match the recorded vote, the percentage mix was adjusted to 46% Bush/37% Kerry by reducing Kerry respondents from 1,815 to 1,546 (-14.8%) and increasing Bush respondents from 1,614 to 1,922 (+19.2%).
Proof that Obama won by at least 20 million votes: