Implausible: the PA Unadjusted Exit Poll

Richard Charnin
Nov. 18, 2016

77 Billion to One: 2016 Election Fraud
Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Poll
LINKS TO  POSTS

Trump won the PA recorded vote (party-id) by 48.8-47.7%.
Trump won the PA recorded vote (gender) by  49.1-48.0% (2:56 pm Nov.15).
Clinton won the PA exit poll  by 50.5-46.1%

PA Recorded Vote
Trump wins: 48.8-47.7% (68,000 vote margin)
Trump won Independents: 56.6-33.5%
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5 R- 20I

PA Unadjusted exit poll
Clinton wins: 50.5-46.1% (262,000 vote margin)
Clinton won Independents: 50-43%  (implausible)
Party ID: 41.5D- 38.5R- 20I

PA True Vote Model
Trump wins 48.6-47.7% (54,000 vote margin)
Trump wins Independents: 62-32%
Party ID: 39.1D -29.2R -31.7I

CNN National Exit Poll (matched to the recorded vote)
Clinton wins 47.8-47.4%
Trump won Independents: 48-42%
National Party ID: 37D- 33R- 30I

National True Vote Model 
Gallup Party-ID:  32D- 28R- 40I (8% Party ID  advantage to Independents)

Before Undecided Voter Allocation (UVA)
Trump wins the popular vote: 44.4-42.9% (1.6 million vote margin)
Trump wins the recorded Electoral vote: 306-232

True Vote: After Undecided Voter Allocation
Trump wins  48.5%-44.3% (5 million vote margin)
Trump wins the  Electoral Vote: 351-187

 

Election Model: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sGxtIofohrj3POpwq-85Id2_fYKgvgoWbPZacZw0XlY/edit#gid=1141167047

Gender Vote	Clinton	Trump
Avg	45.90%	49.65%
Diff		3.75%
OH	42.89%	52.11%
NC *	46.64%	50.06%
NJ	54.64%	41.88%
PA *	47.95%	49.05%
MI	47.24%	47.28%
MO	37.83%	57.23%
IA	42.54%	51.99%
FL *	46.71%	48.82%
WI *	46.63%	48.39%

SUMMARY COMPARISON (based on Party-ID)

	Unadj		Reported		True Vote
Vote	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	48.39%	45.80%	46.15%	49.65%	46.47%	49.65%
Diff		-2.59%		3.51%		3.18%
OH	47.0%	47.1%	43.5%	52.1%	43.9%	51.1%
NC *	48.6%	46.5%	46.7%	50.5%	46.6%	50.5%
NJ	59.8%	35.8%	55.0%	41.8%	50.7%	46.4%
PA *	50.5%	46.1%	47.7%	48.8%	47.7%	48.6%
MI	46.8%	46.8%	47.5%	47.8%	47.5%	47.8%
MO	42.8%	51.2%	38.0%	57.1%	47.2%	56.8%
IA	44.1%	48.0%	42.2%	51.8%	42.4%	50.2%
FL *	47.7%	46.4%	47.8%	49.1%	45.9%	47.7%
WI *	48.2%	44.3%	46.9%	47.9%	46.5%	48.0%
	Unadj		Reported		True Vote
%Ind	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump	Clinton	Trump
Avg	47.33%	40.30%	38.61%	52.67%	35.00%	55.23%
Diff		-7.03%		15.06%		20.23%
OH	50.0%	34.0%	38.0%	52.0%	38.0%	51.0%
NC	44.0%	44.0%	38.5%	56.0%	36.5%	58.5%
NJ	67.0%	28.0%	51.0%	48.0%	46.0%	52.0%
PA	50.0%	43.0%	36.0%	56.0%	32.0%	62.0%
MI	32.0%	52.7%	35.0%	56.0%	33.5%	56.6%
MO	45.0%	40.0%	28.0%	62.0%	30.0%	60.0%
IA	42.0%	41.0%	35.0%	51.0%	35.0%	51.0%
FL	48.0%	43.0%	43.0%	47.0%	32.0%	53.0%
WI	48.0%	37.0%	40.0%	50.0%	32.0%	53.0%

Pennsylvania

Unadj EP	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	41.5%	90%	6%	1%	3%
Rep	38.5%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	20.0%	50%	43%	3%	3%
Calc	100%	50.4%	46.1%	1.4%	1.8%
Unadjusted	100%	50.5%	46.1%	1.8%	1.6%
Votes (000)	5,950	3,005	2,743	107	95
		Margin	-262
		Margin	-4.4%
Reported	Party-ID	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	41.5%	90%	6%	1%	3%
Rep	38.5%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	20.0%	36%	56%	5%	3%
Calc	100.0%	47.63%	48.73%	1.80%	1.85%
Reported	100.0%	47.65%	48.79%	1.90%	1.66%
Votes (000)	5,950	2,835	2,903	113	99
		Margin	68
		Margin	1.1%
True Vote Model	Adjusted	Clinton	Trump	Johnson	Stein
Dem	39.1%	90%	6%	1%	3%
Rep	29.2%	8%	91%	1%	0%
Ind	31.7%	32%	62%	4%	2%
True Vote	100.0%	47.7%	48.6%	2.0%	1.8%
Votes (000)	5,950	2,836	2,890	116	108
		Margin	54