MI Primary: Bernie did much better than the recorded share indicates

Michigan Primary:  Sanders did better than his recorded vote indicates

Richard Charnin (with John Brakey)
Updated: March 13, 2016

This analysis indicates that Sanders did much better than his recorded vote in the Michigan primary.  Sanders had 590,386  votes (49.8%) and Clinton 570,948 (48.3%).   Sanders won in 73 of 83  MI counties with 56% of the vote. He won the preliminary exit poll by 52.1-45.9%, a 97% win probability. Clinton won urban counties Wayne and Oakland  with approximately 55% of the vote.

Clinton won the  Massachusetts primary by  just 1.4%,  but she did well  in urban areas. Sanders won  hand-counted precincts by 57-40% in 68 Towns (32,360 votes, 2.7% of votes cast).  Sanders also had 52.1% in the preliminary exit poll which he won by 52.1-45.7%. His win probability was also 97%.

Once again, we have multiple confirmation indicating fraud: Cumulative vote shares, preliminary exit poll, absentee vote anomalies and other anecdotal information.

Will we see the same fraud indicators in FL, OH, IL, MO and NC on March 15?

It should be conventional wisdom by now: in state elections, fraud abounds in heavily populated urban and suburban locations. Of course, the media never talks about it. They report the recorded numbers as if there was not a fraud factor.

Election Fraud Indicators

Sanders had 1) 56% at the 600,000 Cumulative vote share mark,  2)  54% of approximately 500,000 votes cast on AccuVote and Sequoia  voting machines and 3) led 52.1-45.9% in the unadjusted exit poll. 

Clinton had 1) 75% of approximately 240,000 absentee votes and 2) 51.2% of approximately 700,000 votes cast on ES&S Mod 100 machines. The percentages are highly suspect. 

Voting Machines (optical scanners)

Sanders’ county vote shares  were negatively correlated to machine types. The ES&S Model 100 was a highly negative -0.68. The bigger the county the lower Sanders’ vote share. 

Wayne and Oakland counties used ES&S Model 100 optical scanners. Macomb used both ES&S and Premier/Diebold/Dominion AccuVote optical scanners.

Opscan	Total Vote	Sanders	Share	Correl to Vote
AccuVote OS	286,606	156,782	54.70%	-0.21
Model 100	648,911	313,009	48.24%	-0.68
Optech Insight	230,176	121,582	52.82%	-0.37
Total vote	1,165,693	591,373	50.73%	-0.40

Unadjusted MI Exit Poll

Sanders led the preliminary exit poll of 1510 respondents  by 52.1-45.9% (787-693). He led the adjusted exit poll  (matched to the recorded vote) of 1601 respondents by 49.8-48.3%  (797-773).

But the recorded share was IMPOSSIBLE.  The proof is self-explanatory: How could Clinton gain  80  and Sanders just 10 of the final 91 exit poll respondents?

Based on the two-party preliminary share (53.16-46.84%) and 3.27% margin of error, Sanders had a 97.1% win probability.

Preliminary Exit Poll – 1510 respondents  (3.27% MoE)

Gender	Pct	Clinton	Sanders	Other
men	0.45	0.42	0.56	0.02
women	0.55	0.49	0.49	0.02
Total	100%	45.9%	52.2%	2.0%

Adjusted Final Exit Poll – 1601 respondents (forced to match the recorded vote)

Gender	Pct	Clinton	Sanders	Other
men	0.45	0.44	0.55	0.02
women	0.55	0.51	0.45	0.03
Total	100%	47.9%	49.5%	2.6%

Absentee Votes (AV) differed substantially from the overall county vote results.  Generally absentee voting is a close match to the precincts.  

The Democrats had an estimated 237,000 AV. Approximately 177,750 (76%) voted for Clinton and 59,250 for Sanders.  How did Clinton win AV by 76-24%? One would expect that Sanders and Clinton would nearly split AV.

Some have suggested that the reason Clinton won absentees by 50% is that they are typically older voters who supported Hillary.  But Clinton won 60% of 45+ voters in the adjusted final exit poll.  Since  all exit polls are forced to match the recorded vote (see AAPOR ),  Clinton probably had less than 60%. So much for the age issue.

This Sensitivity Analysis shows the effect of Clinton’s share of absentees from her estimated 177,750 recorded absentee votes to Sanders 59,250.

HRC%Abs	Actual	70%	65%	60%	55%	50%
Absentees	237,000	165,900	154,050	142,200	130,350	118,500
– Clinton	177,750	116,130	100,133	85,320	71,693	59,250
– Sanders	59,250	59,250	59,250	59,250	59,250	59,250
Clinton Total	570,948	509,328	493,331	478,518	464,891	452,448
Clinton share	49.16%	48.09%	46.97%	45.80%	44.58%	43.30%
Sanders	50.84%	51.91%	53.03%	54.20%	55.42%	56.70%

Absentee votes in the largest counties

County	Clinton	Sanders	Clinton	Sanders
Wayne	37,522	9,047	80.57%	19.43%
Oakland	23,417	8,776	72.74%	27.26%
Macomb	13,592	5,593	70.85%	29.15%
Total	74,531	23,416	76.09%	23.91%

Cumulative County Vote Shares 

In the CVS analysis, Sanders had approximately 56% at the 600,000 mark. Notice the abrupt change to straight lines at the 600,000 vote mark. They represent the largest counties (Wayne and Oakland which used ES&S optical scanners exclusively.

Cumulative Vote Shares by County Machine Type

Links

Matrix of Deceit: Forcing Pre-election and Exit Polls to Match Fraudulent Vote Counts
Proving Election Fraud: Phantom Voters, Uncounted Votes and the National Exit Poll (E-book)
LINKS TO WEB/BLOG POSTS FROM 2004
Election Fraud Overview