1988-2016 Recorded Votes vs. Exit Polls vs. True Vote Models

Richard Charnin
Nov. 13, 2011
Updated: Nov. 29, 2016

The 1988-2016 Unadjusted State and National Exit Poll Spreadsheet Database contains a wide selection of tables and graphs for presidential election analysis. The data source is the Roper website.

Adjusted “final” exit polls do not reflect actual exit poll response and just parrot the recorded (fraudulent) vote. The fraud factor is assumed to be zero in all official final polls. This graph summarizes the discrepancies between the 1988-2008 State Exit Polls vs. the corresponding Recorded Votes

Unadjusted exit poll data shares have closely matched the corresponding True Vote Model. The TVM calculates feasible estimates of returning and new voters. State and national exit poll demographic cross tabs in the mainstream media are always forced to match the recorded vote by “adjusting” category weightings and/or vote shares.

The Democrats led the 1988-2008 vote shares measured by…
1) Recorded Vote: 48.08-45.96%
2) Unadjusted State Exit Poll Aggregate:51.88-41.71% (370,000 respondents)
3) Unadjusted National Exit Poll: 51.86-41.65 (85,000 respondents)
4) True Vote Model (methods 2-3): 51.6-42.9%
5) True Vote Model (method 4): 53.2-41.0%
6) State Exit Polls (WPE/IMS) method: 51.0-43.0%

The Democrats won the exit poll and lost the recorded vote in the following states:
1988: CA IL MD MI NM PA VT (Dukakis won the unadjusted Nat Exit Poll 50-49%)
1992: AK AL AZ FL IN MS NC OK TX VA
1996: AK AL CO GA ID IN MS MT NC ND SC SD VA
2000: AL AR AZ CO FL GA MO NC NV TN TX VA (Gore needed just ONE state to win)
2004: CO FL IA MO NM NV OH VA (Kerry would have won if he carried FL or OH)
2008: AL AK AZ GA MO MT NE

In 2000, Gore won the aggregate of the unadjusted state exit polls (58,000 respondents) by 50.8-44.4%, a 6 million vote margin. But he won the recorded vote by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). There were six million uncounted votes, the vast majority (75-80%) for Gore. Uncounted ballots accounted for 3-4 million of the 5.5 million vote discrepancy. Vote switching and ballot stuffing may account for the remaining 1-2 million.

In 2004, Bush won the recorded vote by 50.7-48.3%. The unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51.7-47.0%. Exit pollsters Edison/Mitofsky suggested the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis to explain the difference: there must have been 56 Kerry responders for every 50 Bush responders. There was no evidence to back it up.

Mitofsky used the same argument to explain the large 1992 exit poll discrepancies. Clinton had 43.0% recorded, a six million vote margin. But he had 47.6% in the unadjusted exit poll- a 16 million landslide. Mitofsky never mentioned the 1992 Vote Census which showed that there were 10 million more votes cast than recorded. Uncounted ballots accounted for half the 10 million discrepancy in margin.

Forcing the exit poll to match the recorded vote

The pollsters applied their unsupported hypothesis by forcing the National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote. They indicated that 43% of 122.3 (52.6 million) of the 2004 electorate were returning Bush 2000 voters and 37% returning Gore voters. But 52.6 million was an impossible statistic; it implied a 110% turnout of living Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.5 million votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5 million died prior to the 2004 election and one million did not return to vote. Therefore, no more than 47 million Bush 2000 voters (38.4% of the 122.3 million) could have returned. There had to be 5.6 million PHANTOM BUSH VOTERS.

In fact, Kerry led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (76,000 respondents) by 51.1-47.6%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (13,660 respondents) by 51.7-47.0%. Therefore, since the National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote with an impossible number of returning Bush voters, the recorded vote must have been impossible. Simple mathematics proves election fraud.

The True Vote Model (TVM) indicated that Kerry had 53.6%. Why the difference between the TVM and the unadjusted state and national exit polls? The exit pollsters apparently designed their 2004 sample based on the bogus 2000 recorded vote which indicated that Gore won by just 540,000 votes (48.4-47.9%). On the other hand, the TVM uses a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election. Gore won the unadjusted state exit polls by 50.8-44.5%; he won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 48.5-46.3%.

In 2008 Obama led the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (83,000 respondents) by 58.0-40.5%. He led the unadjusted National Exit Poll (17,836 respondents) by 61.0-37.2%. As usual, the NEP was forced to match the recorded vote (Obama by 52.9-45.6%).

Why the discrepancy? The National Exit Poll was forced to match the bogus recorded vote by indicating that returning Bush and Kerry voters comprised 46% and 37%, respectively, of the electorate. The pollsters implied that there were 12 million more returning Bush than Kerry voters. But Kerry won the unadjusted National Exit Poll by 6 million votes and the True Vote Model by 10 million.

The following examples illustrate how the exit pollsters rigged the Final 2004 National Exit Poll demographic crosstabs to force them to match the recorded vote.

Bush Approval
The pollsters had to inflate Bush’s pre-election approval rating by a full 5% in order to force a match to the recorded vote – and perpetuate the fraud. Bush had 50.3% approval in the unadjusted state exit poll aggregate, but just 48% approval in 11 final pre-election polls. Therefore, the unadjusted exit polls understated Kerry’s True Vote by 2%. In order to force the Final National Exit Poll to match the recorded vote, the exit pollsters had to increase Bush approval to 53%, a full 5% over the 48% average of 11 pre-election polls. If Bush’s true approval was 48%, that means Kerry had 53.6% – matching the True Vote Model.

Party-ID
In order to force a match the recorded vote, the pollsters had to “adjust” the state exit poll Dem/Rep Party-ID split from 38.8/35.1% to 37/37% in the Final National Exit Poll.

There was a near-perfect 0.99 correlation between Bush’s unadjusted state exit poll shares and approval ratings and a 0.93 correlation between his shares and Republican Party-ID.

This chart displays Bush’s unadjusted state exit polls, approval ratings and Republican Party-ID.

The True Vote Model (TVM) is based on Census votes cast, mortality, prior election voter turnout and National Exit Poll vote shares. The TVM closely matched the exit polls in each election. In 2008, it was within 0.1% of Obama’s 58.0% unadjusted exit poll share.

These tables display the trend in unadjusted state and national exit polls, True Vote and recorded vote shares.

1988-2008 Presidential Election Fraud
The discrepancies between the official recorded vote and unadjusted exit polls are in one direction only. This cannot be coincidental. The True Vote Model is confirmed by the unadjusted exit polls – and vice versa.

There was a massive 8% discrepancy between the exit polls (52D-42R) and the recorded vote (48D-46R). The Probability P of the discrepancy is less than:
P = 8E-10 = 1- Normdist (.52,.48,.012/1.96, true)
P = 1 in 1.2 billion

Example: 274 state presidential exit polls (1988-2008)
A total of 232 polls shifted from the poll to the vote in favor of the Republican. Only 42 shifted to the Democrat. Normally, as in coin-flipping, there should have been a near equal shift. The Binomial distribution calculates the probability that 232 of 274 would red-shift to the GOP: 9.11E-35 (less than 1 in a trillion trillion). E-35 is scientific notation for 35 places to the right of the decimal point. For instance, E-3= .001 or 1/1000.

The Poisson_distribution function is used for calculating the probability in which each event has a very low probability of occurrence. The Margin of Error was exceeded in 135 of 274 state exit polls. Only 14 would normally be expected. Of the 135, 131 moved in favor of the Republicans, 4 to the Democrat. The probability P that 131 of 274 would red-shift beyond the margin of error is P = E-116 = Poisson (131, .025*274, false).
P = .0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 0000000000 000001

The 274 exit polls comprise the Ultimate Smoking Gun which proves Systemic Election Fraud.

The following table summarizes
a) the number of state elections in which there was a Republican red-shift from the exit poll to the vote,
b) the number (n) of states in which the margin of error was exceeded in favor of the Republican,
c) the probability that n states would red-shift beyond the MoE to the Republican,
d) the Democratic unadjusted aggregate state exit poll share,
e) the Democratic recorded share,
f) the differential between the exit poll and recorded vote share.

Year RS >MoE Probability.. Exit Vote Diff
1988 21.. 12... E-12..... 50.3 45.7 4.6 Dukakis may very well have won a close election.
1992 45.. 27... E-26..... 47.6 43.0 4.6 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
1996 44.. 19... E-15..... 52.6 49.3 3.3 Clinton won in a landslide, much bigger than recorded.
2000 34.. 17... E-13..... 50.8 48.4 2.4 Gore won by 5-7 million True votes.
2004 42.. 23... E-20..... 51.1 48.3 2.8 Kerry won a 10 million True vote landslide.
2008 46.. 37... E-39..... 58.0 52.9 5.1 Obama won a 23 million True vote landslide.

(%)……….        Nat Exit…….  State Exit……..Recorded……  Red shift
Year..Votes… Dem.. Rep…… Dem… Rep… Dem… Rep… GOP >MoE
Total………… 51.58 41.76…. 51.72 41.71.. 48.34 46.16….232 135 131

1988 91,595. 49.81  49.15.. 50.30 48.70.. 45.64 53.46…… 21 12 12
1992 104,424 46.31 33.47.. 47.59 31.74.. 43.01 37.46…… 45 27 27
1996  96,275  52.20 37.50.. 52.64 37.06.. 49.18 40.82…… 44 19 18
2000 105,417 48.51 46.27.. 50.75 44.76.. 48.38 47.87…… 34 17 16
2004 122,294 51.71 46.95.. 50.97 47.71.. 48.28 50.72…… 42 23 22
2008 132,310 60.96 37.23.. 58.06 40.29.. 52.87 45.60…… 46 37 36