Wisconsin Supreme Court True Vote Analysis
In the 2011 Wisconsin Supreme Court election, Kloppenburg (Ind) apparently won by 200 votes. But two days later, 14,000 votes were “found” in Waukesha County. Prosser (Rep) was declared the unofficial winner by 7,000 votes. The subsequent recount was a travesty in which scores of slit ballot bags were photographed, as were poll tapes dated a week before the election. A stack of 50 consecutive Prosser ballots were found in Verona where Kloppenburg won 67% of the recorded vote; the probability is effectively absolute zero (0.33^50).
The True Vote Model (TVM) indicates that Kloppenburg won the election.
Assuming a 50% turnout of both Obama and McCain voters, the recorded margin required that Kloppenburg must have won an implausibly low 81% of returning Obama voters while Prosser had 93% of returning McCain voters. If Kloppenburg had 88% of Obama voters and split 70,000 returning third-party and new voters with Prosser, then she won by 99,000 votes with a 53.3% vote share.
The sensitivity analysis tables for Wisconsin, Milwaukee and Waukesha display vote shares and margins for 25 turnout and vote share scenario combinations.
Kloppenburg won Milwaukee County by 29,700 recorded votes, 56.4-43.4% (Obama had 67.3%). In order to match the recorded vote, Prosser had to win 20% of Obama voters and 95% of McCain voters (assuming an equal 50% Obama/50% McCain voter turnout). Obama had a 36% margin compared to just 13% for Kloppenburg. Are we to believe that Prosser won 1 out of 5 returning Obama voters? If we assume that Kloppenburg had 90% of Obama voters, then she won by 61,000 votes with a 63% share. One must conclude that election fraud cut Kloppenburg’s margin in Milwaukee County by approximately 31,000 votes.
Prosser won Waukesha County by 59,500 recorded votes, 73.8-26.2% (Obama had 37.7%). In order to match the recorded vote, Prosser had to win 35% of Obama voters and 97% of McCain voters (assuming an equal 55% Obama/55% McCain voter turnout). Are we expected to believe that more than 1 in 3 Obama voters defected to Prosser? That is beyond implausible. On the other hand, if we assume that Kloppenburg won a very plausible 90% of Obama voters, then it appears that election fraud inflated Prosser’s Waukesha margin by around 23,000 votes.
The True Vote Model is predicated on determining a) a feasible estimate of returning voters from the prior election and b) an estimate of how voters in the current election cast votes. Typically, the number of returning voters is a function of prior election total votes cast, voter mortality and estimated turnout. The 2008 Presidential True Vote is used as the basis for calculating returning voters. Annual Voter mortality is 1.25%, therefore approximately 3% of 2008 voters passed on prior to the election. New voters were assumed to be split equally between Kloppenburg and Prosser.
Given the 2010 recorded vote, we calculate new voters as follows:
Total Votes = returning 2008 voter turnout + New 2010 voters
New 2010 voters = 2010 vote – returning 2008 voter turnout
Mainstream media pundits never mention the fact that it is standard operating procedure for exit pollsters to force all final national and state exit polls to match the recorded vote. They accept the recorded vote as gospel and never question the official results. But the evidence is overwhelming that in virtually every election, the recorded vote does not equal the True Vote because of systemic election fraud. It’s ten years and counting since Florida 2000 – and the beat goes on.